11/4/02 nw energy coalition clean electricity options for the pacific northwest: an assessment of...
DESCRIPTION
11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Schematic of Study Approach Study area: 3½ state BPA area Basic assumptions: Regional Technical Forum Demand forecast: adapted from Council 4 th plan Wind resource analysis: Brower/TrueWind Solutions Biomass resource analysis: Jim Kerstetter, WSU Advice and access to data: Power Council, NW Energy Efficiency Alliance, WSU Energy Center, OR Office of Energy, Pacificorp, BPA, RNP, Ecotope, NWSEED, Climate SolutionsTRANSCRIPT
11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition
Clean Electricity Options for the Pacific Northwest: An Assessment
of Efficiency and Renewable Potentials through the year 2020
October2002 Michael Lazarus, David von Hippel, Stephen Bernow
Tellus Institute, http://www.tellus.org for the NW Energy Coalition
11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition
PNW Electricity generation resources, 2001
Hydro (15612aMW)
72%
Oil (196aMW)1%
Solar/Wind/ Biomass
(128aMW)1%
MSW/Black Liquor
(430aMW)2%
Natural Gas (2500aMW)
12%
Coal (1656aMW)8%
Other4%
Nuclear (851aMW)
4%
(Source: NPPC, 2001c)
• Natural gas and wind have grown since mid-2001
•CA gas, Interior West coal, and BC hydro also used to meet loads
11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition
Schematic of Study Approach
Efficiency +CHP Supply
Curves
Council's 4th plan (1994-96)the "benchmark"
National studies (1997-2001)detailed (national) policy pathways ,
modeled interactions
Regional EE analyses (1998-2001)RTF/NEEA/CA/UT/DOE market studies Renewables Assessments
True Wind study (2002)WSU biomass (2002)
Changed market conditionsand technology developments
measures analysis(cost and potential)
RenewablesSupplyCurves
Study area: 3½ state BPA area
Basic assumptions: Regional Technical Forum
Demand forecast: adapted from Council 4th plan
Wind resource analysis: Brower/TrueWind Solutions
Biomass resource analysis: Jim Kerstetter, WSU
Advice and access to data: Power Council, NW Energy Efficiency Alliance, WSU Energy Center, OR Office of Energy, Pacificorp, BPA, RNP, Ecotope, NWSEED, Climate Solutions
11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition
Changes to Load Projections
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End-Use Demands & Efficiency Measures
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Commercial efficiency savings to 2020
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Commercial measures: net annual costs & benefits
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Residential efficiency and fuel switch savings to 2020
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Residential measures: net annual benefits & costs
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Residential measures: net annual benefits & costs - w/o water heating measures
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Industrial/other efficiency savings to 2020
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Industrial measures: net annual costs and benefits
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Commercial Combined Heat & Power
• Evaluated 30 kW microturbines, 100 kW ICE and 800 kW ICE
• Assumed 30% penetration by 2020• Displace 1315aMW grid electricity by 2020• Ave. cost = 3.2 cents/kWh, 1.08 b/c
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Industrial Combined Heat & Power
• Evaluated 800 and 3000 kW ICE and 10 and 40 MW CTs
• Assumed 30% penetration by 2020• Displace 1031 aMW grid electricity -2020• Ave. cost = 3.7 cents/kWh, .92 b/c
11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition
Overall Results: Efficiency, fuel switch, and combined heat and power (CHP) measures
Savings (aMW) Cumulative NPV Benefits
2010 2020 to 2020 to 2050 to 2050
(w/externalities) Residential 568 (7%) 1618 (18%) ($938) $131 $1,446 Commercial 1088 (19%) 2260 (36%) $530 $1,423 $2,190 Industrial 1079 (13%) 2365 (24%) $812 $1,189 $1,847 Other 33 (4%) 39 (4%) ($2) $14 $43 TOTAL 2768 (12%) 6283 (24%) $402 $2,755 $5,528
CHP by 2020 (included in the table): 1315 aMW commercial and 1031 aMW industrial
Fuel switching by 2020: 322 aMW from switching residential water heaters to high efficiency gas; 73 aMW to solar water heaters
11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition
Wind Resource Cost and Potential (with and without Production Tax Credit)
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Regional Biomass Electricity Options
Near-term options:
• Cofiring biomass(residues) at coal stations
• Landfill gas
Longer-term options:• Modular, gasification combined cycle systems using residue streams
• High-efficiency cogeneration systems at paper & pulp mills
11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition
Summary of renewable resource results (assuming 2010 costs)
Total 2020 Potential
Generation Cost (cents per kWh)
aMW
Percent of Regional Demand Range
Weighted Average
Wind 6433 23% 2.6 - 6.1 5.1
(3.7 w/PTC) Biomass 2880 10% 1.1 - 6.0 4.4 Geothermal 641 2% 5.0 - 7.0 5.8
Smaller resources such as distributed photovoltaics, small wind and hydro not considered
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A Combined Resource Scenario
• Identified (achievable) efficiency/fuel switch potential
• 20% of electricity production by (non-hydro) renewables by 2020
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CO2 emissions from electricity generation under combined resource scenario
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Conclusions
• Cost-competitive efficiency and renewable energy resources are more abundant than commonly assumed, and far more than being pursued
• Major reductions in (electricity) CO2 emissions are possible at limited cost or net economic benefit
• More in-depth understanding of demand patterns and markets (esp. industrial) would be beneficial
• The merits of specific policy instruments (offset requirements, portfolio standards, tax incentives, efficiency standards, etc.) need to be evaluated