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Long Island - Aviation Weather Users Workshop

Rick CurtisChief MeteorologistSouthwest Airlines

Rick.curtis@wnco.com

November 18, 2008

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Topics of Discussion

• Current Industry Projects

• SWA Facts and Figures

• SWA Weather

• Local NWS Issues

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Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS)

• Seven Airline Participants (AA, Delta, FedEx, NWA, SWA, United, UPS)

• Real-time data access restricted to participating airlines (ESRL web site) and government agencies

– Aircraft observations are largely limited to winds & temp

– Aircraft observations are frequently over-reported at airline hubs, and under-reported at less-busy locations

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Desired Future State of MDCRS• Aircraft Weather Observations

– Reported where & when needed through some level of data optimization system

– Implement standardized reporting rate, fidelity, and format.

– Delivered over standardized comm. systems (NOAAport) and available to everyone that desires real-time access

• Implement an enhanced process for allowing additional program participants

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MDCRS issues and Considerations• Began process of working towards future state

again in early 2008 – Process slow due to conflicting priorities at airlines and

gov’t

– Effort being re-energized for continued work in 2009

• Various Needs– Additional definition from NWS & FAA on more specific

data requirements.

– An honest account from airlines on what they can deliver in terms of increased and standardized data reporting

– Additional assistance from JPDO for long term NextGen considerations

11/18/08 6

NWS Water Vapor Project

• NWS contracts– Awarded to ARINC for installation of 31 water vapor sensors on

SWA aircraft

• SWA teaming with ARINC and SpectraSensors on installation and certification issues for the sensor

– Awarded upgrade to UPS to retrofit 25 current water vapor sensors on UPS aircraft with newly upgraded sensor.

• Schedule– Expect an Electromagnetic Interface (EMI) test on a sensor installed

on SWA aircraft in late December

– Expect SWA aircraft to begin transmitting automated water vapor reports early first quarter of 2009

– Expect UPS aircraft to begin transmitting automated water vapor reports later in first quarter of 2009

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Deicing Workgroup

• Updated guidance for contract weather observers– Issue SPECI when number of observed precipitation

types drops from 3 down to 2– Reiterate need to respond to pilot requests for

updated observations

• Intensity of frozen and freezing precipitation based on Liquid Water Equivalency currently being tested (intensity currently visibility driven)

• Testing precip combinations (type, intensity) that don’t currently have holdover/allowance times

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Ice Pellet Allowance Times Winter 2008-2009 (Type IV Fluid)

OAT -5°C or Above OAT Less Than -5°C

Light Ice Pellets 50 minutes 30 minutes

Moderate Ice Pellets 25 minutes 10 minutes

Light Ice Pellets mixed with Light or Moderate Snow

25 minutes Takeoff Not Authorized

Light Ice Pellets mixed with Light or Moderate Freezing Drizzle or Light Freezing Rain(Not Authorized below -10°C OAT)

25 minutes 10 minutes

(Not Authorized

Below -10°C OAT)

Light Ice Pellets mixed with Light Rain (OAT 0°C or Above)

25 minutes Not Applicable

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Weather Evaluation Team (WET)

• Sub-team under Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) umbrella

• Two Current Tasks– Investigate extending the CCFP (8-24 hours)

• Growing demand for change to current format• Probabilistic approach?• Utilize SPC outlooks or other convective products• Eliminate 2-hour outlook (use radar based products)?

– Develop process for airport weather forecasts to be presented to all participants prior to Strategic Planning Telecons (SPT’s)

• Capability for those involved to view information• Opportunity to comment and/or present differences

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SWA Facts and Figures

• 3400+ daily flights from 64 airports • 535 Boeing 737 aircraft (300’s, 500’s, 700’s)• Average flight length is 627 miles

– Shortest: 133 miles (RSW-MCO)– Longest: 2,295 miles (BWI-SAN)

• Southwest consumed 1.5 billion gallons of jet fuel in 2007.

• Southwest offers the most domestic flights of any airline

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SWA Cities

MSP (March 2009)

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SWA Meteorology• Big picture is a major responsibility

– Contribute more to strategic decisions than tactical decisions (large scale movement of aircraft)

– Rely solely on NWS TAFs for individual flight planning decisions.

• Twice daily briefings to all ops-related groups (Dispatch, Pilots, Maintenance, Ground Operations, Reservations, Crew Scheduling, Executive Office, Customer Service)

• Intranet Weather System always available to all SWA employees (includes daily briefing info)

• Integrate both government and private sector weather information sources into our dispatch applications

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Strategic vs Tactical• Strategic Planning (Hurricanes, Winter Storms)

– Employee Issues/Staffing Decisions– Passengers– Aircraft & Airport Operations (Terminators/Originators)– Local Infrastructure– Evaluation & Recovery– Restore Operations

• Tactical Planning (Thunderstorms, Fog, Ice Pellets, Minor Snowfalls)– Fuel Concerns– Alternate Requirements - necessary for less than 3 miles or

2000 feet.– Suspend Ramp Operations - Code Red– Flight Delays– Diversions– Cancellations

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Ongoing Challenges• Minimizing forecast variation among NWS issued

products– TAF’s and more (Gridded Fcst, Zone Fcst, Short Term

Forecasts, AFD, Special Weather Statements, CCFP, SPC, etc.)

• TAF still makes dispatchers world go round

• However, now more frequently utilizing other products (This is a good thing)

• Can be significant variation in forecast products (at terminal or within the local airspace)

Winter Weather – Ice (Never clear cut; fine line between nuisance and major

problem)

– Precipitation Type (Snow, Freezing Rain, Mixed)

– Terminator/Originator Decisions

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Winter Weather Issues• Winter weather forecasts are a lot more to than

planning and monitoring flights.• Items that require decisions include:

– De-icing of airplanes– Employee availability– Local Power– Local infrastructure– TSA Staffing– Customer Demand– Airport conditions– Overnight aircraft– De-icing fluid availability

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Aviation Discussion• TAF Issues

– Utilization of VCTS, VCSH, and CB in TAF can be very helpful– Amend in timely manner when necessary, even if near end of TAF cycle

(Important with regard to planning for fuel load!)– Watch Winter weather closely in terms of type(s) of precipitation included

and the timing. Be consistent with your other products.

• Aviation portion of AFD can be huge asset– Adds clarification, conveys forecast confidence, and presents potential “If Then”

secondary scenarios– Provides access to local NWS office expertise on timing and type of precipitation,

wind variations, ceiling/visibility issues– Breaking out specific airports is VERY helpful – this will help you get your

message across more clearly.Example:

– KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU AT LEAST 04Z...AFTER WHICH  MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE AIRFIELD. CURRENT PACKAGE  REFLECTS AN ARRIVAL AROUND 10Z...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. CIGS SHOULD COME IN UNDER 010...BUT ONLY MODERATE CONF THERE TOO.

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How we partner with the NWS• We only use NWS TAFs for operational decision making - including fuel

planning.

• Allowing us to be included in conference calls initiated for media or emergency management on significant weather events.

• Accepting our calls for brief discussions as conditions warrant - even when busy….thanks for doing this.

• We count on you familiarity with your airports operating criteria and local minimums.

• We expect you to work closely with your CWSU to ensure forecast consistency and awareness of traffic flow status.

• Preparing and updating Web site graphics and details for ongoing events.

• Keeping all products up to date and timely – including but no limited to TAFs.

• We attend meetings like this and others to communicate our operating decision criteria to NWS forecasters so they understand how we use your products.

• We work with the NWS Leadership at the local, region and national level to help ensure you have what you need to be successful.

• We are a huge advocate of the NWS and continually look for ways to help promote your efforts, and help educate all aspects of the NWS concerning aviation usage of your products and services. Please continue to be – or get excited about your role in aviation weather – we are counting on you!