11-interest rate risk
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11-Interest Rate Risk. Review. Interest Rates are determined by supply and demand, are moving all the time, and can be difficult to forecast. The yield curve is generally upward sloping Interest Rate Risk: The uncertainty surrounding future interest rates. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
11-Interest Rate Risk
Review Interest Rates are determined by supply and
demand, are moving all the time, and can be difficult to forecast.
The yield curve is generally upward sloping
Interest Rate Risk: The uncertainty surrounding future interest rates. Unforeseen parallel shifts in the yield curve Unforeseen changes in the slope of the yield curve
Our Focus
Where We are Going Dollar Gap
Method to understand the impact of interest rate risk on bank profits
Simple, and requires some ad-hoc assumptions Not discussed in Bodie-Kane-Marcus
Duration Method to understand the impact of interest rate
risk on the value of bank shareholder equity More elegant and mathematically intense The focus of the reading in Bodie-Kane-Marcus Used extensively as well by bond traders
Interest Rate Risk Banks assets
Generally long-term, fixed rate Bank liabilities
Generally short term, variable rate
Impact on profits: Rates increase
Interest received stays fixed Interest paid increases Profits decrease
Interest-Rate Sensitive An asset or liability whose rate is reset within
some “short period of time”e.g. 0-30 days, 1-year, etc.
Interest rate sensitive assets: Short-term bond rolled over into other short-term
bonds Variable rate loans
Interest rate sensitive liabilities: Short-term deposits
Interest-Rate Risk Example
Assets: 50 billion 5B IRS; rate = 8% per year
Liabilities: 40 billion 24B IRS; rate = 5% per year
Profits ($billion) 50(.08)-40*(.05) = 2
Parallel Shift in Yield Curve Suppose all rates increase by 1%
Assets IRS (5B): rate = 9% Not IRS (45B): rate = 8%
Liabilities IRS (24B): rate = 6% Not IRS (16B): rate = 5%
Profits After Rate Increase Interest Expenses ($billion)
16(.05)+24(.06)=2.24
Interest revenues ($billion) 5*(.09)+45*(.08)=4.05
Profits Before: 2 billion After:4.05-2.24=1.81 billion Decrease: 0.19 billion or 9.5% drop in profits
(1.81/2)-1=.095
Gap Analysis
Gap = IRSA – IRSL
IRSA = dollar value of interest rate sensitive assets
IRSL = dollar value of interest rate sensitive liabilities
Gap From Previous Example
IRSA (millions) = 5 IRSL (millions) = 24
Dollar Gap (millions): 5 – 24 = -19
Change in profits= Dollar Gap i From previous example:
Change in profits (millions) -19 .01 = -0.19
Gap Analysis
If the horizon is long enough, virtually all assets are IRS
If the horizon is short enough, virtually all assets become non-IRS
No standard horizon
Dollar Gap Summary
Dollar GAP i ProfitsNegative Increase DecreaseNegative Decrease IncreasePositive Increase IncreasePositve Decrease DecreaseZero Either Zero
What is the right GAP? One of the most difficult questions bank
managers face
Defensive Management Reduce volatility of net interest income Make Gap as close to zero as possible
Aggressive Management Forecast future interest rate movements If forecast is positive, make Gap positive If forecast is negative, make Gap negative
Problems with Gap
Time horizon to determine IRS is ambiguous
Ignores differences in rate sensitivity due to time horizon
Focus on profits rather than shareholder wealth
Building a Bank
Suppose you are in the process of creating a bank portfolio.
Shareholder equity: $25 million You’ve raised $75M in deposits (liabilities) You’ve purchased $100M in 30-yr annual coupon
bonds (assets)
Bank Equity and Interest Rates
Assets 30-yr bonds
– FV: $100M– Coupon rate: 1.8%– YTM=1.8%
Liabilities Deposits
– $75M– Paying 1% per year
Annual profits: $1.8M - $0.75M = $1.05M
Rate on bonds is fixed – no matter how rates change.Rate on deposits resets every year.
Gap Analysis
IRSA – IRSL = 0 – 75M = -75M Assume rates increase by 10 basis points We must now pay 1.1% on deposits
Change in profits: -75M(.001) = -75,000– Profits down 7% = 75K/1.05M
Gap Analysis
One Solution: To protect profits from interest rate increases, sell your holdings in the long term bonds and buy shorter term bonds
But since yield curve is usually upward sloping (liquidity risk-premiums), shorter term bonds will usually earn lower yields.
Result: Lower profits
Manager’s Objective
Managers should probably not be concerned about protecting profits.
Instead, should be concerned about protecting value of shareholder equity: the value shareholders would get if they sold their shares.
Market Value of Bank Assets
Before Rates Increase: Assets =$100M After rate increase?
– Bank is earning 1.8% on 30-yr bonds– Other similar 30-year bonds are paying a YTM of 1.9%- Market value of bank assets:
- N=30, YTM=1.9%, PMT=1.8M, FV=100M- Value = $97.73M
Market Value of Bank Liabilities
Liability of $75.75M due in one year– Principal and interest– Depositors will “redeposit” principal with you at new rate in
1-year
Market Value of liabilities = amount I would have to put away now at current rates to pay off liability in one year = present value
Before rates increase: 75.75/1.01=$75M After rates increase: 75.75/1.011=$74.93M
Market Value of Equity
PV(assets) – PV(liabilities)
One way to think of it: – Assume 1 individual were to purchase the bank– After purchasing the bank she plans to liquidate– When she sells assets, she will get PV(assets)– But of these assets, she will have to set aside some
cash to pay off liabilities due in 1 year, PV(liabilities)
Market Value of Equity
One way to think of it (continued)
– When considering a purchase price, she shouldn’t pay more than PV(assets)-PV(liabilities)
– But current shareholders also have the option to liquidate rather than sell the bank
– Current shareholders shouldn’t take anything less than PV(assets) - PV(liabilities)
Interest Rates and Bank Equity
Before rates increase: equity=$25M After rates increase: 97.73-74.93=$22.8M
Change in equity: 22.8M-25M = -2.2M
A 10 basis point increase in rates leads to a drop in equity of 8.8% (22.8/25-1=-.088)
Solutions
Sell long term bonds and buy short-term bonds– Problem: Many assets of banks are non-tradable loans
(fixed term) – more on this later.– Some bank loans are tradeable: securitized mortgages– How much do we want to hold in long vs. short bonds?
Refuse to grant long-term fixed rate loans– Problem: No clients – no “loan generation fees”– Bank wants to act as loan broker
Solutions
What should be our position in long versus short-term bonds?
How much interest rate risk do we want? Longer term bonds earn higher yields, but the
PVs of such bonds are very sensitive to interest rate changes.
We need a simple way to measure the sensitivity of PV to interest rate changes.
$0.00
$5,000,000.00
$10,000,000.00
$15,000,000.00
$20,000,000.00
$25,000,000.00
$30,000,000.00
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12
PV and Yields
y
PV
Modified Duration
Duration: a measure of the sensitivity of PV to changes in interest rates: larger the duration, the more sensitive
Bank managers choose bank portfolio to target the duration of bank equity.
yPVDPV
PVDy
PV
*
*
rather or
Duration and Change in PV
Let PV = “change in present value”
The change in PV for any asset or liability is approximately
curve) yield of shift (parallel yields in change
Duration" Modified"
y
D
yPVDPV*
*
Example
From before:– Original PV of 30-year bonds: $100M– When YTM increased 10 bp, PV dropped to 97.73 PV=97.73M -100M = -2.27M
Duration Approximation
MM-ΔPV
DD
y
MPV
30.2100001.02.23
02.23
001.0
100
**
yet) find tohow know tdon' (you
Example
From before:– Original PV of liabilities: $75M– When rate increased 10 bp, PV dropped to
74.93M PV=74.93M -75M = -0.074M
Duration Approximation
MM-ΔPV
DD
y
MPV
074.075001.99.0
99.0
001.0
75
**
yet) find tohow know tdon' (you
Example
Change in bank equity using duration approximation:
Before, the change in equity was -2.20.
MMM
LAE
23.2)07.0(30.2
Modified Duration
Modified Duration is defined as
where “D” is called “Macaulay’s Duration”
y
DD
1*
Macaulay’s Duration
Let t be the time each cash flow is received (paid)
Then duration is simply a weighted sum of t
The weights are defined as
T
ttwtD
1
Price Bond
)1/( tt
tyCF
w
Example
Annual coupon paying bond– matures in 2 years, par=1000, – coupon rate =10%, YTM=10%
Price=$1000 Time when cash is received:
– t1=1 ($100 is received), t2=2 ($1100 is received) weights:
2
1 2
100 /(1.10) 1100 /(1.10)0.0909, 0.9091
1000 1000w w
Example
Macaulay’s Duration:
Modified Duration:
91.129091.010909.0 D
74.110.1
91.1* D