107 crossfire mar08

8/3/2019 107 Crossfire Mar08

1/147

Volume1,Number7

March2008

Resolved:TheUSsystemofpresidentialprimariesis

contraryto

democratic

values.

Crossfire Briefs

PFDebate.com

presents


2/147

Copyright2008,PFDebateLLC 2

PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs March2008:PresidentialPrimaries

March2008

Thetopicareaistimelyandinteresting.Ijustwishtheresolutionwaswordeddifferently.

ThePRO

and

CON

sections

are

not

even

because

the

topic

literature

is

not

even.

Most

people

think

there

is

aproblemandnotmanypeoplearedefendingtheexistingprimaryprocess.IllseeifIcanevenitoutinthe

Update,butIwontmakeanypromises.

GoodLuck!

BobJordan

CopyrightandDistribution

CrossfireBriefs

are

sold

per

school.

Whether

purchased

by

aschool

or

by

an

individual,

you

may

distribute

as

manycopiesasyoulikeforuseatyourschool.YoumaynotdistributeCrossfireBriefstopeoplewhoattend

otherschools,includingotherschoolsinyourdistrict.

ContactInformation

Emailisfarandawaythebestwaytocontactus.Youarelikelytoreceivearesponsewithinminutes.

PFDebate,LLC

1325W.

Sunshine

St.

#203

Springfield,MO658072344

[email protected]

4174292411(voicemessage)

4178636655(fax)


3/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.CriteriaForAPresidentialNominatingSystem.

Ranneyin1980,

AustinRanney.[ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley].ThePresidentialNominatingProcess:Can

ItBeImproved?AmericanEnterpriseInstitute.1980.pp.1314.

Webeganbystatingthecriteriabywhichwebelieveanypresidentialnominatingsystemshouldbejudged,andwe

agreeduponfivemaincriteria:

1. Theprocessshouldencouragebothpartiestonominategoodcandidatesthatis,personswhowillbebothef

fectivecampaignersand,ifelected,effectivepresidents.Suchcandidates,webelieve,musthavemanyqualities,

butfirstandforemosttheymusthavehadbroadexperienceingovernment,atleastsomeofitinthenational

government.

2. Theprocessshouldbeperceivedbybothpoliticalleadersandordinarycitizensasfair,proper,andlegitimate.

3. TheprocessshouldforcethecandidatestomeetfrequentlyanddobusinesswithleadersofCongress,leadersof

stategovernments,andleadersofthemajorinterestgroupsthatis,withthepeoplewithhomeapresident

mustdealifheistobeeffective.

4.

The

process

should

stimulate

public

understanding

of

the

major

issues

of

the

day

and

crystallize

public

opinion

on

thoseissues.

5. Theprocessshouldencouragethenationalconventionstobetrulydeliberativedecisionmakingbodies.


4/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.CriteriaForAPresidentialNominatingSystem.

Jacksonin2008,JohnS.Jackson.[VisitingProfessor,PaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute].PresidentialNominationsandRegionalPrimaries:

AnAnalysisofProposalsforReform.AnOccasionalPaperofthePaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute.Paper#9.January2008.

p.9.

http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdf.

Accessed

February

11,

2008.

Whatshouldbethestandardsorcriteriaweusetoselectasetofrules?Thefollowingarecriteriadevelopedbytheauthor

whichheadvocates.Italsoprovidesabriefrationalefortherulesadvocated.

1. Therulesofthegameshouldbepredictable,transparent,andagreeduponinadvance.

2. Therules,insofaraspossible,shouldbeneutral,i.e.notunfairlyadvantageordisadvantageanyparticularparty,

candidate,faction,orgroupwhoarelikelytoplay.(Iftherulescantbeentirelyneutral,theadvantagesanddis

advantagestheybestowshouldatleastberandomlydistributed.)Candidateswillalwaysactstrategically,that

istrytomaximizetheirownbestinterests;however,thatshouldnotpreventtherulesfromseekingtomakethe

rulesneutral.

3. Theplanshouldmaximizecommunitiesofinterest,i.e.showwhichcandidateswillrunbetterinwhichdifferent

parts

of

the

nation.

4. Theplanshouldnotforeclosetheoutcomeprematurelybyitstiming,i.e.determinethewinnertooearlyinthe

seasoninawaywhichleavesoutasubstantialpartoftherestofthenation,ormajorstateplayersandinterests.

5. Nosinglestate,orsmallnumberofstatesorsingleregion,shouldhavetheabilitytodeterminetheoutcomeact

ingalone.Allvotersshouldhaveanequalinitialopportunitytohaveanimpactontheoutcomeandnosingle

voter,orgroupofvoters,shouldbeleftout(asisthecasenow).

6. Theresultsshouldbeasrepresentativeaspossibleofallpartsofthenation,andalltheinterestsandpeople

whowillvoteinthegeneralelection.

7. Thesequenceofstateeventsshouldhaveenoughspacebetweeneacheventtoprovideforrationalreflection

anddiscourseonwhatthoseresultsmeanforwhowillbepresident.Theresultsofeacheventshouldprovide

timeforthepeople,thecandidatesandthemediatoreflectontheresultsandmakeadjustmentsandseekaddi

tionalinformationanddebateaboutthemeritsofeachsurvivingcandidate.Thereshouldbetimeforbuyers

remorsetobeaccommodatedandthereshouldbenorushtojudgmentwhichcutsoffdebateprematurely.

Jacksonin2008,

JohnS.Jackson.[VisitingProfessor,PaulSimonPublicPolicyInstitute].PresidentialNominationsandRegionalPrimaries:


p.12.http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdf.AccessedFebruary11,2008.

Obviously,thesystemwehavenowfailsvirtuallyallofthecriteriaofferedabove.Themostdammingindictmentofthe

systemnowisthatwecantevenagreeupontherulesofthegameaheadoftime,andthatwehavesuchchaosinthe

mannerinwhichthe20072008presidentialnominationscontestsarebeingconducted.However,thischaoticsituation

didnotjusthappenyesterday.Wehaveknownforalongtimethatthefrontloadingphenomenonwasacceleratingand

thatsomethingneededtobedone.
http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdf


5/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries

PRO

TopicAnalysis 4

General

TheCurrentPrimarySystemIsBroken 78TheCurrentPrimarySystemNeedsToBeReformed 9TheTimeForPrimaryReformIsNow 10TheCurrentPrimarySystemViolatesDemocraticPrinciples 1113TheTopicFocusesOnTheWrongIssue;EveryoneAgreesThereIsAProblem 14

FrontLoading

FrontLoadingDefined 15FrontLoadingIsCausedByNewHampshireEnvy 16The2008PrimarySeasonIsTheMostFrontLoadedInU.S.History 1718FrontLoadingGetsWorseWithEachElection 19FrontLoadingHasResultedInADeFactoNationalPrimary 20FrontLoadingDecreasesDiscussionAndDebate 21

WithoutReform,

Front

Loading

Will

Continue

To

Get

Worse

22

FrontLoadingViolatesDemocraticPrinciples 23OnBalance,FrontLoadingIsBad 24

FrontLoadingDecreasesVoterParticipation 25FrontLoadingDisenfranchisesVoters 26FrontLoadingResultsInShallowDecisionMaking 27FrontLoadingPreventsDarkHorseCandidates 28FrontLoadingFuelsTheMoneyPrimary 2930FrontLoadingHasManyUndesirableConsequences 31

Iowa&NewHampshire

TheEmphasisOnIowaAndNewHampshireIsUndemocratic 3233

BrownUniversity

Study

Says

Iowa

&

New

Hampshire

Have

Up

To

20

Times

The

Influence

Of

34

36

VotersInLaterStatesBrownUniversityStudyProvesThatTheCurrentPrimarySystemIsUndemocratic 37Iowa&NewHampshireAreNotRepresentative 38Iowa&NewHampshireReceiveMajorBenefitsByGoingFirst 39OtherStatesCouldServeTheSameFunctionAsIowa&NewHampshire 40TheIowaCaucusesAreUndemocratic 41TheIowaCaucusesDisenfranchiseVoters 42TheIowaCaucusVotersAreNotBound 43

DemocraticPartySuperDelegates

SuperDelegatesDefined 44SuperDelegatesCouldDetermineTheDemocraticNominee 45

Super

Delegates

Are

Undemocratic

46


6/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries

TopicAnalysis:PRO

Resolved:TheUSsystemofpresidentialprimariesiscontrarytodemocraticvalues.

Theliterature

on

this

topic

overwhelmingly

favors

the

PRO

this

month.

Iwould

go

PRO

every

chance

Icould.Alotofpeopleareunhappyabouttheprimaryprocess,buttherearetoomanyentitiesinvolvedandthe

folksinvolvedcannotagreeonasolution.

Idontthinkthisisatopicwhereyouwanttotrytobecreative.Theevidenceissogoodwithregardto

frontloadingandIowa&NewHampshirethatIstronglysuggestthatyousticktothebasics.Thesuper

delegatecaseareaisinteresting,anditcouldbeahotissueinMarchoradud.Itisimpossibletoknowatthis

point.Acasewithtwocontentions,onefocusingontheDemocraticPartyssuperdelegateproblemandan

othercontentionfocusingontheRepublicanPartysWinnerTakeAllsystemwouldbeaninterestingcasethat

doesnotpickonaparticularparty.

Iknow

there

is

some

temptation

to

go

outside

the

mainstream

and

discuss

the

primaries

of

parties

like

theGreensandtheLibertarians,butIjustdontthinkthecasewillbeverycompelling.Ialsothinkitwillbedif

ficulttoresearch.

Dontoverthink thephrasedemocraticvalues.Alotoftheevidencetalksaboutthevariousprimary

issuesinrelationtodemocraticprincipleslikeoneperson,onevote.Ratherthangetcaughtupinanesoteric

debateaboutdemocracy,letyourcontextualevidencedotheworkforyou.

GoodLuck!


7/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheCurrentPrimarySystemIsBroken.

Wangin2007,

TovaAndreaWang.[DemocracyFellowatTheCenturyFoundation].ThePresidentialPrimarySystemsDemocracy

Problems.TheCenturyFoundation.IssueBrief.March12,2007.p.9.

http://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdf.Accessed

February

2,

2008.

Itmaybetoolatetodoanythingintimeforthe2008presidentialelection.Yettheproblemswiththecurrentsystemcan

notbeignored.Aswithotherissuesthatthevotingandcivilrightscommunitiesdevoteattentionto,theflawsinthepri

maryprocesspresentaseriouschallengetofairandequitablerepresentationinthedemocraticprocess.Meaningfulpub

licparticipationinthenominationofcandidatesisafairlyrecentphenomenon.Priorto1968,candidateswerelargely

handpickedbypartybosses.Nowthattheprimariesareanexpectedandimportantpartofthepresidentialelectionsys

tem,groupsshouldconsideraddressingtheminaccordancewiththesamedemocraticprinciplesastheydoforgeneral

elections.

Winnin2008,

PeteWinn.[SeniorStaffWriter].StatesWantCongresstoFixBrokenPrimarySystem.CybercastNewsService.

February

7,

2008.

http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.html .

AccessedFebruary9,2008.

Accordingtothepeoplewhooverseemostelectionsatthestatelevel,thesystemisbrokenandneedsrepair.

"Thereissomethingwrongwiththeprimarysystem,"KentuckySecretaryofStateTreyGraysontoldCybercastNews

Service.

"Thestatesarefightingtomovetothefrontoftheline.Thepartiesaretryingtoinstillorder.Thecandidatesaretryingto

dealwithruleschanginginthemiddleofacampaignandhavingtodecidewhethertocampaigninstatesthatmayhave

violatedrulesoforderonhostingprimaries,"Graysonsaid.Klobucharin2007,

AmyKlobuchar.

[U.S.

Senator,

D

Minnesota].

Senator

Klobuchar

Pushes

Solution

to

End

Primary

Arms

Race.

USFedNews.September19,2007.LexisNexis.AccessedFebruary8,2008.

Ourpresidentialprimarysystemisbroken.It'stimetostoptheprimaryarmsrace.

EachindividualinthiscountryshouldhaveavoiceinelectingthePresidentoftheUnitedStatesavoicethatbeginswith

selectingthecandidatesthroughprimariesandcaucusesineachstate.

Avastnumberofvotersinmanystatesacrossthenation,however,havelosttheirvoiceinthepresidential

primaryselectionprocess,becauseofitsdrasticallyalteredcalendar.

Currently,we'reinaracewhereeachstateistryingtoleapfrogthenext,asallthestatesappeartobevyingtoholdthe

earliest

primary.

The

voters

of

each

state

no

longer

have

a

say,

unless

they

are

able

to

compete

with

the

slew

of

other

statesthataretryingtogofirst.

Thepresidentialprimariesandcaucusesareturningouttobe,toquoteaneditorialinaSanAntoniopaper,"abigmess."

Andreformingthis"mess"islongoverdue.
http://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdfhttp://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.htmlhttp://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.htmlhttp://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdf


8/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheCurrentPrimarySystemIsBroken.

Sabatoin2007,

LarryJ.Sabato.[CenterforPolitics,UniversityofVirginia].AMorePerfectConstitution.NewYork:WalkerPublishing

Company.2007.pp.124125.

Darwinianevolutionisfinefortheoriginofthespecies,butitispasttimeforthenecessarypoliticalinstitutionscalled

partiestobegovernedbysomesortoffederalintelligentdesign.OnlytheConstitutioncanachievethisaim.

Ifanyongoingdisastercanprovethepoint,surelyitisthequadrennialorgyofthepresidentialprimaryprocess.

Imaginethataconventionofclownsmettodesignanamusing,crazyquiltscheduletonominatepresidentialcandidates.

Theresultingsystemwouldprobablylookmuchasourdoestoday.Theincoherentorganizationofprimariesandcau

cuses,andthecandidatesmaddashattemptstomovearoundthemap,wouldbefunnyifthegoalelectingtheleader

ofthefreeworldwerentsoserious.Mayer&Buschin2004,

William

G.

Mayer

[Associate

Professor

of

Political

Science,

Northeastern

University]

and

Andrew

E.

Busch

[Associate

ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofDenver].TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations.Washington

DC:BrookingsInstitutionPress.2004.pp.23.

Bythemid1990s,however,alargenumberofpoliticalcommentatorsandobservershadtakennoticeoffrontloading

and,withasingulardegreeoffunanimity,deploreditseffectsonthepresidentialselectionprocess.In1996thesystem

thatresultedfromfrontloadingwasdescribedasmadness,insane,warpedandvirtuallymindless,absurdlyaccel

erated,selfdefeating,debilitating,ahighspeeddemolitionderby,andaparodyofparticipatorydemocracyin

whichcandidateshaverushedthroughthecountrylikepassengerslateforaconnection.In2000variouscommentators

calledthenominationprocessasoundbitesaturatedsprint,astampede,adisasterfordemocracy,absurd,a

moshpit,terrible,dangerouslyirrational,amutantgameofhopscotch,afreighttrain,andacrazyquiltsys

temthatproducedalemminglikerush.


9/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheCurrentPrimarySystemNeedsToBeReformed.

Liebermanin2007,

JosephLieberman.[U.S.Senator,IConnecticut].RegionalPresidentialPrimaryTestimony.September18,2008.

http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdf.AccessedFebruary8,2008.

Theguidingprincipleofourdemocracyisthateverycitizenhastheopportunitytochoosehisorherleaders.Butthesad

truthisthisprinciplenolongerbearsaresemblancetotherealityofanincreasinglysquashedandarbitraryprimary

system.

Weneedtochangeourpresidentialprimarysystemtomakeitmorereasonable,moreinclusive,andbetterstructuredso

thatitproperlyreflectsthesignificanceitholdsnotonlyeveryfouryears,butasafoundingprincipleofourgreatnation.

Kemmis&Brownin2008,

DanielKemmis&BobBrown.[CenterfortheRockyMountainWest].LetsMoveToA4MonthRegionalPresidential

PrimarySystem.ClarkForkChronicle.January9,2008.

http://www.clarkforkchronicle.com/article.php/20080109154002620.AccessedFebruary2,2008.

Weneedtoreformbothourpresidentialnominationprocessandourpresidentialelectionprocess.Ourbadlyflawed

democraticsystemisstillbetterthananynondemocraticalternative.Butwecanandshouldmakeitbetter.

Winnin2008,

PeteWinn.[SeniorStaffWriter].StatesWantCongresstoFixBrokenPrimarySystem.CybercastNewsService.

February7,2008.http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.html .


"Primarieswerenotintendedtobeanarmsrace,"Klobucharsaid."Weseektogiveordertothischaotic,messy,and

unrepresentativeprocess.Thisschedulegivespowerandinfluencebacktothevotersineverystate."

Whyhasthisnotbeentriedbefore?Becausethepeoplewhosettherulesforprimariesareoftentimesrepresentativesof

thecampaigns,

and

they

naturally

want

to

do

what's

best

for

their

campaigns,

Grayson

answered.

"IfyoujustlookatSuperTuesday,alotofthestatesintheNortheastmovedupontheRepublicansidetotrytobenefit

MayorGiuliani,"hesaid."ForDemocrats,Illinoismoveduptotrytobenefittheirfavoriteson,BarackObama.Soyouhave

forcesthataretryingtonominate'theirguy'or'theirgal.'"

Nicholsin2008,

JohnNichols.[WashingtonCorrespondent,TheNation].TheMadMoneyPrimaryRace.TheNation.January3,2008.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols.AccessedFebruary2,2008.

"Howthecandidatesarenominateddefineseverythingelse,yetpeoplegetsofocusedonthehorseracethattheydon't

alwayspayenoughattentiontotheneedtomaketheprocessfunctionalanddemocratic,"saysRobRichie,anexperton

electoral

systems

who

directs

FairVote

The

Center

for

Voting

and

Democracy,

which

has

positioned

itself

as

a

key

player

inthepushforreform."That'stheproblem,becausewehavetohavemorepeopleinvolvedinseekingreformifit'sgoing

tohappen."Richieisinvolved,asareassortedreformers,academics,partyinsidersandpoliticalveteranslikeformerTen

nesseeSenatorBillBrockandCaliforniaDemocraticPartyexecutiveboardmemberDavidPhelps,whohaveformedabi

partisanFixthePrimariesgroup,thestatedpurposeofwhichispromoting"farreachingreformoptions."
http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdfhttp://www.clarkforkchronicle.com/article.php/20080109154002620http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.htmlhttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200802/POL20080207a.htmlhttp://www.clarkforkchronicle.com/article.php/20080109154002620http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdf


10/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheTimeForPrimaryReformIsNow.

Nicholsin2008,



Canthisriggedsystembereorderedtocreateafairfightin2012?Yes,butitdependsontheabilityofreformerstocap

tureamomentwhen,asveteranpoliticalstrategistSteveCobble,alongtimeadvocateofreform,says,"disgustwithhow

ithasallplayedoutwillbefreshenough,evenamongcandidatesandconsultants,tocreateanopeningforrealreform."

Knowlesin2008,

AmandaKnowles.[StaffWriter].CongressTacklesNationsPrimaryProblem.AmericanObserver.January23,2008.

http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary2/.AccessedFebruary9,2008.

[Ryan]ODonnell[directorofFairvotespresidentialelectionsreformprogram]isntcertainifreformcouldbeachievedin

timeforthe2012electioncycle,butheishopeful.

If

there

is

ever

a

time

to

do

it,

its

now,

he

said.

Its

never

been

more

chaotic.

No

plan

is

perfect.

With

this

kind

of

thingitsalmostimpossibletoknowwhatwouldbegoodandwhatwouldbebad.Whatwedoknowisthatanything

wouldbeanimprovementoverwhatwehave.

[Ellipsisinoriginal]

[Bracketsinsertedforclarity]

Jacksonin2008,




Thetimetoactisnow,atleastin2008andpreferablyintimeforthenationalconventionsofbothpartiestobeheldin

Augustand

September

of

2008.

The

plans

adopted

then

could

be

made

applicable

to

the

2012

cycle,

and

they

would

not

clearlybeadoptedwiththedirectinterestsofanycurrentcandidateinmind.Afterthenewruleshavebeeninplacefor

oneelection,theywillbecomemuchmoreneutralandmuchmorerationalthanthecollectionofstatelawsandnational

partyruleswhichdeterminesthesequenceandoutcomesnow.Democracyisalwaysgoingtobesomewhatmessy,but

theelectoralrulesofthegamecanstrivetobeasrational,transparentandneutralaspossible.Asanationweshouldact

withthoseobjectivesinmind.

Knowlesin2008,



Thetimeisripeforreform,[Ryan]ODonnell[directorofFairvotespresidentialelectionsreformprogram]said.

Likeeverything

else

in

our

democracy,

it

is

aquestion

of

whether

were

going

to

move

forward

by

expanding

our

voting

policies,hesaid,comparingthesituationtowomenssuffrageandthemovementtowinblackstherighttovote.Hesaid

thecurrentsystemeffectivelyshutsoutportionsofthecountrywithlaterprimariesfromhavinganyvoice.Thisisdis

criminationbasedongeography,andinthemostimportantelectionwehave.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols


11/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheCurrentPrimarySystemViolatesDemocraticPrinciples.

Schererin2007,

MichaelScherer.[WashingtonCorrespondent].ThePresidentialPrimaryScam.Salon.com.October8,2008.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/.AccessedFebruary2,2008.

It'sfarworsethanyouthinkworsethanhangingchads,faultyDieboldmachines,andbillionaireswhobankrolllast

minuteattackads.TheAmericansystemfornominatingapresidentialcandidatehasaboutasmuchincommonwithac

tualdemocracyasDonaldDuckhaswithalakemallard.It'snotjustthatthisyear'sprimarieshavebeenfurtherfront

loaded,orthattheearlyprimarystatesaren'trepresentativeofthenationatlarge.Thereisonlypassingfairness.Thereis

onlythesemblanceoforder.Thereisnothinglikeequalrepresentationunderthelaw.

Thewholestinkingprocesswasdesignedbydeadmeninsmokyparlorsandrefinedbyfacelessbureaucratsinhotelcon

ferencerooms.Itisanastybrewbornofthosecaldronsofselfinterestknownaspoliticalparties.Ateverystage,advan

tageisparceledoutlikesomuchmagicpotion."Thenationalinterestisnotconsideredinanyform,"saysUniversityof

VirginiapoliticalscientistLarrySabato."Everythingisleftuptoanadhocdecision.It'schaotic."

Riley

in

2008,

KateRiley.[StaffColumnist].SpreadingtheCandidateLove.TheSeattleTimes.February4,2008.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2004159425_riley04.html.AccessedFebruary4,2008.

Thestatusquosureisn'tworkingforWashingtonstate.With24statesparticipatinginthisweek'sSuperTuesdayprimary,

themajorityofthenationalreadywillhaveweighedinonthepresidentialracesbythetimeWashingtonvotersgetasay.

Statepartyleaders,incahootswithsomeelectedofficials,havedonealmosteverythingtheycantomakesureWashing

ton'sFeb.19primarymattersaslittleaspossible.Thepartiesaretryingtokeepanironfistonparticipationinthecandi

dateselectionforpartybuildingpurposes.

Ifyou'reaDemocrat,theonlychanceyouwillhavetogetasayisifyouletyourlaundrypileupandskipyourkids'basket

ballgameonSaturdaytoattendoneoftheparty'scaucuses.ThestateDemocraticPartyisallocatingallofitsdelegates

basedonresultsofitssuretobesparselyattendedcaucuses.

ThemoremagnanimousstateGOPwillallocatehalfofitsdelegatesbasedoncaucusresultsandtherestontheprimary.

Talkaboutaridiculouswaytoselectcandidates.Letmerevisitoneimpressivestatistic.In2000,thelastyearWashington

hadapresidentialprimary,1.3millioncitizensvoted.(Thestatecanceledtheprimaryin2004becauseofbudgettroubles.)

Bycomparison,thepartiesreportedonly60,000participatedinthecaucuses.

Proffittin2000,

WaldoProffitt.[FormerEditoroftheHeraldTribune].MissedOpportunityForDemocracy.HeraldTribune.com.August

10,2007.http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767 .


Sadly,

it

is

a

system

that

denied

most

Republicans

and

most

Democrats

a

voice

in

the

selection

of

their

party's

nominee

for

president,andasystemwhichrequiressuccessfulcandidatestoraisevastamountsofmoney,enhancestheroleofexpen

sivetelevisionadvertising,andencouragesgenerouscampaigncontributionsbyspecialinterestgroupswhoexpectto

havetheirinvestmentreturnedmanyfold,andareseldomdisappointed.

Theprimarysystem,whichwasdevisedinanefforttodecreaseinfluenceofpartybossesandincreaseparticipationof

rankandfilemembers,hasbeenpervertedinrecentyears.Ithasbecomearealthreattoourabilitytopreservegovern

mentbythepeople.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2004159425_riley04.htmlhttp://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2004159425_riley04.htmlhttp://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/


12/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheCurrentPrimarySystemViolatesDemocraticPrinciples.

Mayer&Thaiin2007,

KevinMayer&Xuan Thai.[CNN].SenatorsSeekReformofPresidentialPrimarySystem.CNNPoliticalTicker.

July31,2007.http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senatorsseekreformofpresidentialprimarysystem/.

AccessedFebruary

2,

2008.

Theguidingprincipleofourdemocracyisthateverycitizenhastheopportunitytochoosehisorherpoliticalleaders,

said[SenatorJoseph]Lieberman.Butthesadtruthisthisprinciplenolongerbearsaresemblancetotherealityofanin

creasinglycompressedandarbitrarypresidentialprimarysystem.


Nicholsin2008,



Wang

points

out

that

the

current

problems

cannot

be

ignored

by

those

who

would

repair

our

political

system.

"Like

other

issuesthatthevotingandcivilrightscommunitiesdevoteattentionto,theflawsintheprimaryprocesspresentaserious

challengetofairandequitablerepresentation,"shesays."Nowthattheprimariesareanexpectedandimportantpartof

thepresidentialelectionsystem,reformgroups[needtostartaddressing]theminaccordancewiththesamedemocratic

principlesastheydoforgeneralelections."

[Bracketsinoriginal]

Marquseein2008,

MikeMarqusee.[AuthorandSocialJusticeActivist].TimeToUpgrade.TheHinduMagazine.January13,2008.

http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/mag/2008/01/13/stories/2008011350060300.htm. AccessedFebruary2,2008.

TheworldlooksonattheU.S.presidentialprimarieswithamixofhopesandfears,andnotalittlebemusement.

TheroadtotheWhiteHouseisserpentine,itscourselaidoutbyanamalgamoffederalandStatelaw,constitutionalinter

pretationbythecourts,partyregulations,custom,andmediaimperatives.Inthehorseracethatensues,presentationand

positioningeasilytrumppolicy.Asadramaticspectacle,theprimariescanproviderichentertainment;butasacoherent

democraticprocess,theyarewanting.

Forastart,thewholethingrestsonanarithmeticofapplesandpears.InsomeStates,onlyregisteredDemocratsandRe

publicanmaytakepartintheirrespectiveprimaryelections.Inothers,independentsmaychoosewhichpartyprimary

theywishtovotein.Inyetothers,anyonemayvoteineitherprimary,regardlessofwhichpartytheyareregisteredwith.

Stillothersdonothaveprimariesbutcaucuses,which,unliketheothers,arenotsecretballots.

Thentheresthestaggeredschedule.IowaandNewHampshirecomefirst,andmaywinnowoutcontendersandmakeor

break

insurgents.

Yet

they

are

States

with

small

and

unrepresentative

populations,

disproportionately

rural

and

white.

A

smallelectorateendsupmakingverybigdecisions,whileamuchlargeronewatchesandwaits.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/mag/2008/01/13/stories/2008011350060300.htmhttp://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/mag/2008/01/13/stories/2008011350060300.htmhttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/07/31/senators-seek-reform-of-presidential-primary-system/


13/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheCurrentPrimarySystemViolatesDemocraticPrinciples.

Ramosin2008,

MatiasRamos.[StaffWriter].EarlyBirdPrimariesAnd CaucusesGetTheWormButUndermineDemocracy.

TheDailyBruin.January10,2008.

http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearlybird

primaries

and

caucuses

get

worm

under/.


Infact,forallthepompousrhetoricaboutequaltreatmentandourmanifestresponsibilitytospreaddemocracyacross

theglobe,ourownbrandofelectoralpolicycomesupshortingivingallcitizensanequalsay.

KnightandSchiffusedastatisticalmodelthatsuggeststhatiftheorderoftheprimarieshadbeendifferentin2004,John

EdwardswouldhavebeentheDemocraticcandidate.

Quainin2008,

TonyQuain.[FreelanceWriter].RidiculousPrimarySystem.TonyQuain.com.January30,2008.

http://www.tonyquain.com/blog/index.php/b/2008/01/30/unreasonable_primary_system.AccessedFebruary2,2008.

Inthisexcitingandtumultuouspresidentialelectionyear,agreatinjusticeisclosingitsgripontheAmericanpoliticalproc

ess.Theelectoralcollegeissomethingofananachronism,sure.Andexcessivelitigationthreatenstomovedemocracy

fromtheballotboxtothecourtroom.Andvotingmachinesinsomestateshavetheirflaws.Buttheseissuesonlymakea

differenceinverycloseelectionsonceeveryhundredyearsorso.Thegreatinjusticeofourpresidentialelectionprocess,

onethatfewcanhavefailedtowitnessthispastmonth,isthetrulyridiculousandunfairsystemofpartyprimariesand

caucuses.Thissystemfailstoelectthebestcandidatefromoneorbothpartiesalmosteverytime.Andthisyearisnoex

ception.

Schererin2007,

MichaelScherer.[WashingtonCorrespondent].ThePresidentialPrimaryScam.Salon.com.October8,2008.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/.AccessedFebruary2,2008.

Otherspoint

out

that

the

current

outrages

are

far

less

severe

than

the

smoke

filled

rooms

of

old,

which

nominated

candi

dateslikeWarrenG.Harding.Only37percentofdelegateswereselectedthroughprimariesin1912,comparedwith79

percentin1996.Asrecentlyas1968,HubertHumphreywontheDemocraticnominationwithouthavingruninanyofthe

party'sprimaryelections.Butpastfailuresdonotexcusethecurrentones.Eitherthenation'spoliticalpartiesbelievein

theidealsofthenation,ortheydonot.Theyshouldbeforcedtodecide.
http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/http://www.tonyquain.com/blog/index.php/b/2008/01/30/unreasonable_primary_systemhttp://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/10/08/presidential_primary/http://www.tonyquain.com/blog/index.php/b/2008/01/30/unreasonable_primary_systemhttp://dailybruin.com/news/2008/jan/10/emearly-bird-primaries-and-caucuses-get-worm-under/


14/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.TheTopicFocusesOnTheWrongIssue;EveryoneAgreesThereIsAProblem.

Knowlesin2008,



Numerousreformproposalshavebeenmadeovertheyears,butasofyet,nonehavebeenseriouslyconsidered.Re

spondingtothecurrentsituation,however,legislators,nationalparties,andthepublicarespeakingoutforchange.The

problemistheycantseemtoagreeonhowbesttogoaboutit.

Everyoneisunhappy,butnoonestatecandoanythingaboutit,saidJonathanSiegel,seniorlegislationfellowforKlobu

char.

Cookin2004,

RhodesCook.[FormerPoliticalWriterforCongressionalQuarterly;ContributingEditorforPublicPerspective].

ThePresidentialNominatingProcess:APlaceForUs?Lanham,MD: Rowman&LittlefieldPublishers.2004.p.135.

Hardly

anyone

is

a

fan

of

the

current

presidential

nominating

process.

The

feedback

one

hears

is

sometimes

colorful,

nearlyalwayscritical,andrangesfromasenseofexasperationtohopelessnessthattheprocesscaneverbechangedfor

thebetter.

Whenaskedaboutthecurrentprocess,longtimepoliticalobserversoftenrespondwithcommentsthatarepungent

andstarklynegative.Itsnuts...Itsawful... Itisamindlessdash...Itdefiesrationality...Ithaschangedforthe

worse...Itisbeyondfixing,arejustsomeoftheprintableresponsesthatthisauthorhasheard.

[Ellipsesinoriginal]

Cronin&Loevyin1994,

ThomasE.Cronin[President,WhitmanCollege]andRobertD.Loevy[ProfessorofPoliticalScience,ColoradoCollege].

YESItIsTimeForANewPresidentialNominatingProcess.InControversialIssuesinPresidentialSelection,editedby

GaryL.

Rose.

Albany:

State

University

of

New

York

Press.

1994.

p.

28.

Fewpeople,withthepossibleexceptionsofRonaldReagan,BillClinton,andEverettLadd,seemhappywiththepresent

nominatingsystemespeciallythepatchworkymazeofpresidentialprimaries.Theprocessstrainspatienceandelimi

natesmanygoodcandidates.Thecurrentprimarysystemplainlyfavorswellheeledindividualswhocandevotetheirfull

attentiontoselectedearlystatenominatingbattles.
http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/


15/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingDefined.

Mayerin2004,

WilliamG.Mayer.[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity].FrontloadingthePrimaries:

TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.

http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.Accessed

February

9,

2008.

Frontloadingisthetrendinwhichbeginninginabout1980,moreandmorestatesscheduledtheirprimariesandcaucuses

nearthebeginningofthedelegateselectionseason.

Proffittin2000,

WaldoProffitt.[FormerEditoroftheHeraldTribune].MissedOpportunityForDemocracy.HeraldTribune.com.August

10,2007.http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767 .


Theworstabuseofthesystemhasbeenthegrowthofwhatiscalled"frontloading,"therushofstatestoholdtheirpri

mariesasearlyaspossibleandthusincreasetheirimpactontheprocessandtheamountofattentionpaidtothembythe

national

press.

In2000,thenomineesofbothmajorpartieswereeffectivelydeterminedbyMarch7,thedateagaggleofstates,including

Florida,heldtheirprimaries.Votersinstateswithlaterprimaries,includingCaliforniaandNewYork,hadlittleincentiveto

vote.And,byandlarge,theydidn't.

That'sbadenough,butthefrontloadingrequiredthatcandidateshavesubstantialwarchestsreadybytheendof1999.

Theyhadtobeabletowageexpensivemediacampaignsinseveralstatesearlyintheyear.

TheBrookingsInstitutionin2004,

EventSummary:FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,

2004.http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx.AccessedFebruary9,2008.

Onthe

eve

of

the

official

start

of

the

2004

presidential

campaign,

aBrookings

panel

of

experts

discussed

the

cascading

primaryandcaucussystemthathasshortenedthenominationprocesstoasprint.Thisphenomenonknownas"front

loading"occurredwhenanincreasingnumberofstates,beginningin1980,beganschedulingtheirprimariesandcaucus

closertothebeginningofthedelegateselectioncalendar.

"Whereoncetheprimaryseasonstartedupveryslowly,nowitbeginsveryrapidly,"saidpanelistWilliamG.Mayer,an

associateprofessoratNortheasternUniversity.

Stateprimariesandcaucuseswereonceconductedoverthreetofourmonths;primaryfrontloadinghascondensedthe

nominationprocesstofourorfiveweeks.Intheirnewbook,TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations

(BrookingsInstitutionPress),MayerandcoauthorAndrewE.Busch,anassociateprofessorattheUniversityofDenver,

showthatin1976only19percentofalldelegateshadbeenselectedbythesixthweekoftheprimaryseason.Currently,

58

percent

will

have

been

selected

by

then,

and

72

percent

by

the

seventh

week.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070909/COLUMNIST43/709090901&SearchID=73307657187767http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf


16/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingIsCausedByNewHampshireEnvy.

Mayerin2004,




February

9,

2008.

Whyhasthischangetakenplace?Whyhavesomanystatesmoveduptheirprimariesandcaucuses?Well,aswesayin

thebook,thesingleproximatecauseoffrontloadingisaphenomenonthatwecalledNewHampshireenvy.

NewHampshireenvy,asitsnameprobablyimplies,istheperceptionthatNewHampshiregetsanenormousrangeof

benefitsbyholdingthefirstprimaryineveryelectioncycleandthatotherstateswillbenefitiftheytoocanholdtheirpri

maries,ifnotexactlyinthesameweekasNewHampshireNewHampshirewillmakeitsbesteffortstomakesurethat

doesntoccurthenatleastasclosetothestartoftheprocessaspossible.


EventSummary:FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachtoPresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.

January

14,

2004.

http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx.

Accessed

February

9,

2008.

Mayerattributesthefrontloadingtrendto"NewHampshireenvy,"namedafterthenation'sfirstprimarystate.This

year'sNewHampshireprimarywilltakeplaceonJanuary27.

"NewHampshireenvy,"saidMayer,"referstotheperceptionthatNewHampshiregetsanenormousrangeofbenefitsby

holdingthefirstprimaryineveryelectioncycle,andthatotherstateswillbenefitifthey,too,canholdtheirprimariesas

closetothestartoftheprocessaspossible."

Accordingtothebook'sauthors,stateswithearlyprimariesenjoysuchbenefitsasprominentpresscoverage,richatten

tionfromcandidates,heavyanddisproportionateinfluenceonthenominationrace,economicbenefitsfromcampaign

andmediaspending,freepublicityforstatebusinessesandresorts,andspecialpolicyconcessionslikediscretionary

spendingandfavorablebureaucratictreatment.

Mayer&Buschin2004,

WilliamG.Mayer[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity]andAndrewE.Busch[Associate

ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofDenver].TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations.

WashingtonDC:BrookingsInstitutionPress.2004.p.23.

Asthehistoryandanalysispresentedinchapter2hasshown,thesingleproximatecausethatliesbehindmostrecent

stateschedulingdecisionsisaphenomenonbestdescribedasNewHampshireenvy.Insimpleterms,NewHampshire

envyistheperceptionthatNewHampshire,becauseitholdsthefirstprimaryinthenation,derivesasubstantialarrayof

politicalandeconomicbenefitsfromthatpositionandplaysahighlysignificantroleindeterminingwhoultimatelywins

themajorpartypresidentialnominations,despitethefactthatitisasmallstateandis,inimportantways,notparticularly

representativeofthecountryasawhole.AsmoreandmorestatesbecameawareofalltheadvantagesaccruingtoNew

Hampshire

and

after

1976,

to

Iowa

as

well

they,

too,

naturally

came

to

believe

that

it

would

be

to

their

benefit

either

tovoteonthesamedayasNewHampshireor,ifthatwerenotpossible,atleasttoscheduletheirprimaryorcaucus

somewherenearthestartofthedelegateselectioncalendar.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf


17/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.The2008PrimarySeasonIsTheMostFrontLoadedInU.S.History.

Stearnsin2007,

MattStearns.[McClatchyNewspapers].CanBrokenPrimarySystemBeFixed?McClatchyWashingtonBureau.

September25,2007.http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.html .AccessedFebruary2,2008.

Theproblemsofthecurrentprimaryandcaucusnominationgamearewelldocumented:It'stoofast,tooexpensiveand

eachelectioncycleisacceleratingtheabsurdity.Plus,IowaandNewHampshire,twoidiosyncraticearlyvotingpower

housesthatbarelyreflecttherestofthecountry,playanoutsizedroleinthiselectoral"Survivor."

Thestillunsettled2008primaryscheduleistheworstoneyet:Withstatesleapfroggingoneanothertogaininfluenceand

attention,neitherIowanorNewHampshirehasformallyscheduleditsvote,whichbothstatesaredeterminedwillremain

firstandsecond,comewhatmay.

Thischaoticsystemencouragesstatestojockeyforpositionandleadstoovercrowdedprimarydays,forcingcampaignsto

relyonbarragesofnegativeads,expensivetelevisionbuysandquickflyinsratherthanengaginginsubstantivediscus

sionswithvotersonestateatatimeovermanymonths.

Graysonin2007,

TreyGrayson.[KentuckySecretaryofState.CoChair,NASSSubcommitteeonPresidentialPrimaries].

TestimonyBeforetheU.S.SenateRulesCommittee.September19,2007.

http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdf.AccessedFebruary8,2008.

The2008presidentialnominatingscheduleisthemostfrontloadedinU.S.history.Thirtyfivestatesarealreadyontrack

tovoteinJanuaryorFebruarymorethanthreetimesthenumberthathaddonesoin2000andthatnumbercould

growbyatleasttwoorthreemore.

Altschulerin2008,

BruceE.Altschuler.[ProfessorofPoliticalScience,SUNYOswego].SelectingPresidentialNomineesbyNationalPrimary:

AnIdeaWhoseTimeHasCome?TheForum.5(4).2008.p.2.http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/.

AccessedFebruary

9,

2008.

Frontloadingin2008promisestobeevenworse,despitepartyrulesprohibitingprimariesexceptforNewHampshireand

allbutafewspecificallyexemptedcaucusesbeforeFebruary5.Itbeganwhenabout20states,includingNewYorkand

California,scheduledtheirprimariesonthefirstallowabledateofFebruary5,makingitlikelythatthe2008nominees

wouldbedeterminedamonthearlierthaneven2000and2004.ThenFloridabroketherulesbyschedulingaJanuary29

primary.Inordertocontinuetobefirstintheirregion,SouthCarolinaRepublicansapprovedholdingtheircaucusesearlier

thantheoriginaldateofJanuary29.ThechainreactionledtoIowacaucusesonJanuary3,followedfivedayslaterbythe

NewHampshireprimary.Ifthistrendcontinues,wemightseepreChristmasvotesin2011.

Jacksonin2008,


An

Analysis

of

Proposals

for

Reform.

An

Occasional

Paper

of

the

Paul

Simon

Public

Policy

Institute.

Paper

#9.

January

2008.


The20072008presidentialnominationsseasonwillgodownintherecordbooksasthelongest,themostexpensive,the

mostfrontloaded,themostdebated,themostunpredictableandthemostcontentiouspresidentialnominationscontest

inAmericanhistory.Partofthereasonforthescopeanddepthofthehighlypublicconflictwasthefactthatthiswasthe

firsttimesince1952whenasittingpresidentorvicepresidentwasnotaseriouscontenderforthenominationofoneof

thetwomajorparties.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.htmlhttp://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdfhttp://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdfhttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.html


18/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.The2008PrimarySeasonIsTheMostFrontLoadedInU.S.History.

Knowlesin2008,



The2008presidentialprimaryseasonisshapinguptobethemostchaoticinhistory,expertssay.Statesaretakingpartin

amaddashtothefrontofthescheduleinanefforttomaximizetheirinfluence,breakingpartyrulesandfacingpenalties

alongtheway.Inresponse,Congresshastakenthematterintoitsownhands,proposingreformlegislationandleaving

somequestioningwhethergovernmentinterventionisconstitutional.

Themajorproblemwiththecurrentsystemisthestrangleholdthatasmallnumberofstateshaveontheselectionofour

presidentialcandidates,saidLibbyBenton,legislativeassistanttoRep.SanderLevin,DMich.Thisyearespeciallyisa

goodexampleofhowfrontloaded,franticanddisorganizedtheprimarysystemcanbe.

Klobucharin2007,

AmyKlobuchar.[U.S.Senator,DMinnesota].SenatorKlobucharPushesSolutiontoEndPrimaryArmsRace.

US

Fed

News.

September

19,

2007.

LexisNexis.

Accessed

February

8,

2008.

Thislegislationwouldnottakeeffectuntil2012,buttheprimaryseasonnowunderwayshowswhythisreformisneeded:

Inthe2008primaryseason,atleast26stateswillholdprimariesorcaucusesbythefirstTuesdayinFebruaryahuge

increasefromthe9primariesheldbythefirstTuesdayinFebruary,whichwascalled"SuperTuesday,"inthe2004primary

cycle.

Now19statesareholdingprimariesorcaucusesonthefirstTuesdayofFebruaryin2008,asyounotedMadamChairman.

Manystateshavefeltforcedtomovetheirprimariesuptothisdateforfearofbeing"leftoutinthecold"iftheywaitany

longer.

Jacksonin

2008,



p.13.http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdf.


Asapeople,Americanstypicallydonotactonfundamentalchangeuntilthereisacrisis.Inmyview,theUnitedStates

shouldnowbeconsideredtobeincrisiswiththemesswevecreatedin2007 2008.Ifthiswereabananarepublic,theU.

S.StateDepartmentwouldlookdownitsnoseandsniffabouttheinadequacyofthesystemwehave.Itistimeforthe

UnitedStatestoactlikeamaturedemocracyandtoadmitthatournominationsprocedurescanbeimproveduponand

thatthereisacompellingnationalinterestindoingsomethingtoaddresstheveryrealshortcomingsofthepracticeswe

havenowwhicharetheproductofnothinglargerthantheparochialinterestsofafewstatesandtheirmostactiveand

articulate

groups.

There

are

many

plans

which

have

been

advocated

which

are

worthy

of

consideration

and

which

should

beapartofthenationaldialogue.
http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/http://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://www.siu.edu/~ppi/PDF/papers/Regional%20Primaries%20Plan.pdfhttp://americanobserver.net/2008/01/23/primary-2/


19/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingGetsWorseWithEachElection.

Wangin2007,



http://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdf.Accessed

February

2,

2008.

Frontloadinghasincrementallyevolvedsincetheprimarysystembeganinearnestin1968.Eachelectioncycle,more

contestshavebeenheldearlierasstateshavetriedtooutmaneuvereachotherforattentionandinfluence.Theparties

haveattemptedtoholdbackthatscramble,buttolittleavail.In1972,17percentofthedelegateswerecommittedtoa

candidatebymidApril;in1976,33percentofdelegateswerecommittedbythattime;in1980,44percent;in1984,57.4

percent.In1992,halfthedelegateshadbeenallocatedbytheendofMarch.In1996,byMarch12,54percentofthe

pledgeddelegateshadbeenallocated.In2000,byMarch14,twothirdsofthedelegateshadbeenallocated.In2004,by

thesecondTuesdayinMarch,71.4percentofthedelegateswerecommittedtoacandidate.1Toputitanotherway,in

1980,onlyonestatehadaprimaryorcaucusbytheendofFebruary;in2000,ninestatesdid;andin2004,nineteenstates

heldcontestsbythattime.

Nichols

in

2008,



Frontloadingisnotanentirelynewphenomenon.Sincethemodernprimarysystemcameintobeingin1968and1972,

notesTovaWang,aDemocracyFellowwiththeCenturyFoundation,"stateshavetriedtooutmaneuvereachotherfor

attentionandinfluence"while"thepartieshaveattemptedtoholdbackthatscramble."Asthe2008processtookshape,

however,anysemblanceoforderwaslost.WhatUniversityofVirginiapoliticalscientistLarrySabatoreferstoas

"schedulinginsanity"tookhold.Withthekeyplayersawarethatpartyconventionsarelittlemorethantheatricalproduc

tions,stateofficialsseekingtoleapaheadofschedulesestablishedbypartychieftainsnolongertookseriouslythreatsby

thenationalcommitteestodockdelegatesfromthesummersessions.Besides,thestartinggatejumperscalculated,the

eventualnomineeswouldinvariablyallowseatingofdelegationsfromstateswheretheymustcompeteinNovember.So

Michigan,FloridaandotherstatessetJanuaryprimaryandcaucusdates,forcingIowaandNewHampshireofficialstode

fendtheir

franchises

by

moving

close

to

Christmas.

"It'sawful,"saysGwenCarr,aformerDemocraticNationalCommitteestaffer."Noonecanmakeanysenseofitexcept

theinsiders,andeventheyarehavingtrouble."
http://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdfhttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdf


20/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingHasResultedInADeFactoNationalPrimary.

CenterforPolitics&PublicAffairsin2007,

CenterforPolitics&PublicAffairs.Franklin&MarshallCollege.AmericasHitorMissPrimarySystem.March23,2007.

http://www.fandm.edu/x14232.xml .AccessedFebruary2,2008.

Aspressuresbuiltupinstatesvotinglate,"delegatecreep"setin;statesonebyonefrontloadedtheprocessandmoved

theirprimariesearlierandearlier.

Increasingly,theconsequenceofthefuriousfrontloadingtrendbecameapparent.Presidentialnominationsnowreliedon

ahodgepodgeofhaphazardprimariesandcaucusesinbothpartiesthateffectivelyendedcompetitionbymidMarch.Any

statechoosingdelegatesafterMarchwasholdingameaninglesscontest.

Nowin2007,thedamhasfinallybrokenasstatesrushpellmelltojointhedelegatehunt.Therushtofrontloadthedele

gateselectionprocesshasproduceditsultimatedenouement;sometwentyfivestateswithmorethanhalfthenational

populationarelikelytomovetheirprimarydatestoFebruary5.

Some

commentators

have

referred

to

the

impending

February

elections

as

a

"national

primary,"

but

if

its

a

national

pri

mary,itsoneinwhichhalfthestateswillbeAWOL.Itcouldmoreaccuratelybecalledthe"hitormissprimary,"with

morethan40%ofthepopulationeffectivelydisenfranchised.

Graysonin2007,

TreyGrayson.[KentuckySecretaryofState.CoChair,NASSSubcommitteeonPresidentialPrimaries].TestimonyBefore

theU.S.SenateRulesCommittee.September19,2007.

http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdf.AccessedFebruary8,2008.

SomecommentatorshavenotedthatwewillhaveadefactonationalprimarytakingplaceonFebruary5,withtwenty

statesvotingincludinglargepopulationstatessuchasCalifornia,Illinois,NewYork,andNewJersey.Butifyouthinkofit

thatway,itwillbeanationalprimaryinwhichroughlyhalfofournationsvoterswillhavenovoice.Statesholdingtheir

primariesinMarchorlaterarelikelytobecountingmeaninglessvotes.
http://www.fandm.edu/x14232.xmlhttp://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdfhttp://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdfhttp://www.fandm.edu/x14232.xml


21/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingDecreasesDiscussionAndDebate.

Nicholsin2008,



Justasgoverningsuffers,sotoodoespolitics."Concludingthenominationprocessinthewinterforallintentsandpur

posesleavestheparties'nomineesinwaiting,andvoterswithavacuumformanymonths,untiltheconventionsinthe

latesummer,"explainsWang."Thatgaptendstoinducetheanointedcandidatestofocusonraisingprivatemoneywhile

thepublic'sattentionsubsides,reducingtheamountoftimethatmightbemoreproductivelydevotedtodebatingthe

majorissues."

Wangin2007,



http://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdf.AccessedFebruary2,2008.

In

addition

to

the

problems

presented

by

bunching

many

primaries

into

a

small

time

framemaking

it

difficult

for

candi

dateswithrelativelylessfinancialsupporttocommunicatetheirmessagesinamultitudeoflocationsreachinganearly

verdictalsohasdownsides.Concludingthenominationprocessinthewinter,forallintentsandpurposes,leavesthepar

ties,nomineesinwaiting,andvoterswithavacuumforthemanymonthsuntiltheconventionsinthelatesummer.That

gaptendstoinducetheanointedcandidatestofocusonraisingprivatemoneywhilethepublicsattentionsubsides,re

ducingtheamountoftimethatmightbemoreproductivelydevotedtodebatingthemajorissuesconfrontingthenation.

Klobucharin2007,

AmyKlobuchar.[U.S.Senator,DMinnesota].SenatorKlobucharPushesSolutiontoEndPrimaryArmsRace.

USFedNews.September19,2007.LexisNexis.AccessedFebruary8,2008.

Thiscurrent"system"underminesthespiritoftheprimaryprocess.Itturnsourprimariesandcaucusesintoatarmaccam

paign,withcandidatesforcedtopartakeinablitzkriegcampaignstrategyacrosstheentirecountry.

Candidatesflyfromairporttoairportandappearontelevision,butifthiscontinuesthey'llhavelittleopportunityfor

meaningful,targeteddiscussionswithvoters.

Thatmightbesuitableforthelastweekofageneralelectioncampaignbutnotfortheprimariesandcaucuses.

Voterswillalsobeforcedtovoteondateslongbeforetheytraditionallypaidattentiontopresidentialpoliticsandbefore

theymaybereadytodoso.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdfhttp://www.tcf.org/publications/electionreform/wang_primary.pdfhttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols


22/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.WithoutReform,FrontLoadingWillContinueToGetWorse.

Nicholsin2008,



Thisyear'snominationprocessistroublesomeonmanylevels.Andtheneedtocleanitupisanurgentiflittleunderstood

corollarytothecurrentcontest.It'stoolatetofix2008,butnowisthetimetogetseriousaboutrepairingtheprocess.

Everyengagedobserveragreesthatifreformsarenotimplemented,thefrontloadingwillonlyspeedupin2012,asstates

breaktheNewYear'sbarrierandcreateaschedulethatcouldseedelegateselectionbeginayearbeforethepartynomi

neesfaceoff.

Mayerin2004,



http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.AccessedFebruary9,2008.

What

I

think

is

distinctive

about

front

loading

is

that

unlike

most

of

the

other

problems

associated

with

the

contemporary

nominationprocess,frontloadingprobablyhasntrunitscourseyet.

Mostoftheotherproblemshaveprobablyreachedapointofstability.FrontloadingIthinkactually,unlesscorrective

actionistake,willprobablygetworse.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nicholshttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/nichols


23/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingViolatesDemocraticPrinciples.



January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx.AccessedFebruary9,2008.

Mayerworriesthatfrontloadingwasdilutingthedemocraticprocess."Itgreatlycondensesthetimethatvotershaveto

learnaboutthecandidatesandmaketheirdecisions,"hesaid."MostAmericansdon'treallystartpayingattentiontothe

nominationraceuntilthedelegatesarealreadyselected?.Bythetimethenomineeischosen,votersstillwon'thaveany

ideaofwhotheyareorwhothedefeatedcandidatesare."

Corradoin2004,

AnthonyCorrado.[ProfessorofGovernment,ColbyCollege].FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrongApproachto

PresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf .


Asmanyofyouintheroomwillrecall,whenthiswholepartyreformmovementbeganintheDemocraticparty,theidea

was

to

promote

two

basic

principles:

full

and

meaningful

participation

of

the

party

membership

and

a

system

that

would

fairlyreflectthepreferencesofamajorityofhepartyvotersintheprimariesandcaucuses.

Theideawastocreateaprocessthatwouldencourageparticipationandpromoterepresentation.Whatwehaveseenas

aresultoffrontloadingisaprocessthatiswholeantitheticaltothosetwogoals,becausewehaveaprocessnow,thatin

thebestcase,willdisenfranchisethevotersinatleastathirdofthestatesbecausethedieisalreadycastlongbeforethey

evergottothepolls.

Itsaprocessinwhichyounolongergetanefforttobroadenparticipation,but,rather,acontestthatpushestowards

earlyclosure.

Mannin2004,

ThomasE.Mann.[SeniorFellow,GovernanceStudies,BrookingInstitution].FrontloadingthePrimaries:TheWrong

Approachto

Presidential

Politics?

Brookings.edu.

January

14,

2004.


Totheextentthatonebelievesthatpresidentialnominationsshouldbedeterminedinsubstantialpartbyengagement

withDemocraticidentifiers,voters,andcaucusparticipants,thenthisfrontloadedsystemhasfailed,inthesensethat

whilesuchvotersandparticipantsinahandfulofstatesareengaged,forthemostpart,theprocessisover,candidates

havewithdrawnbeforemostoftheeventstakesplace.

Stearnsin2007,

MattStearns.[McClatchyNewspapers].CanBrokenPrimarySystemBeFixed?McClatchyWashingtonBureau.

September25,2007.http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.html .AccessedFebruary2,2008.

"The

presidential

nominating

process

is

too

important

to

our

democracy

to

allow

the

pell

mell

scramble

to

continue,"

Sen.

DianneFeinstein,DCalif.,saidatarecentSenatehearingonoverhaulingtheprocess.Sen.LamarAlexander,RTenn.,lik

enedthesystemtoallowingESPN's"SportsCenter"tonametheSuperBowlparticipantsaftertwopreseasongames.
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.htmlhttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/19910.htmlhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx


24/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.OnBalance,FrontLoadingIsBad.

Mayerin2004,




February

9,

2008.

Thenumberofotherproblemsassociatedwithit,thatIcantalkfurtherabout,butjusttosummarize,frontloadinghas

becomeamajorfeatureofthecontemporarypresidentialnominationprocessandtheresverylittleprospectthatitwill

disappearanytimesoon,anditsconsequences,asIsay,intheopinionofmycoauthorandmyself,arealmostentirely

negative,andifyoustickaround,lateron,Illtellyouperhapsatleastsomegiveyouatleastsomesenseofwhat,ifany

thing,wemightdoaboutit.

Mayer&Buschin2004,


ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofDenver].TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations.Washington

DC:BrookingsInstitutionPress.2004.p.93.

Anyattempttountangletheconsequencesoffrontloadingmustcontendwiththecomplexityofpresidentialnomina

tions,thesmallnumberofcasesfromwhichtodrawconclusions,andthefactthatsomeconsequenceshavealready

manifestedthemselves(forexample,thehighentryfeeandtheeffectivedisenfranchisementofhalfofthestates)while

othersarethusfaronlyhypothetical(thepotentialforrunawaymomentumtonominatealittleknowncontender).Butall

theevidencetodateandalltheconsequencesitisreasonabletoexpectinthefuturearguequitestrongly,inourview,

thattheeffectsoffrontloadingonAmericanpresidentialpoliticsarealmostentirelynegative.Thoughasmallnumberof

argumentshavebeenmadeinfavoroffrontloading,allofthemareflawed,wethink,inavarietyofimportantways.

Waynein2007,

StephenJ.Wayne.[ProfessorofGovernment,GeorgetownUniversity].IsThisAnyWayToRunADemocraticElection?

Washington,DC:CQPress.2007.p.179.

Thatthe

states

that

hold

the

early

caucuses

and

primaries

are

not

representative

of

the

party

as

awhole,

that

the

people

whodoparticipateinthecaucusesandprimariestendtohavethestrongestideologicalorientations,andthatthecandi

dateswhobenefitfromthecurrentsystemtendtobethosewiththegreatestnamerecognition,themostmoney,andthe

mostorganizationalsupportundercutsthedemocraticcharacterofthenominationprocess.Italsocontributestothecyni

cismanddistrustofelectedofficials,politicalparties,andpresidentialcandidatescertainlynotabeneficialresultfor

theparties,theircandidates,theirpartisans,andtheelectorateasawhole.

Altschulerin2008,


AnIdeaWhoseTimeHasCome?TheForum.5(4).2008.pp.23.http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/.


What

has

proven

advantageous

for

states

able

to

increase

the

influence

of

their

voters

has

damaged

the

system

as

a

whole.Eventhoughcampaignsseemlongerthanever,theabbreviatedperiodbetweenthefirstprimariesandtheclinch

ingofthenominationhasleftvotersinadequatetimetolearnaboutthemultiplicityofcandidates.Theamountofmoney

necessaryforacrediblecampaignhasdramatically increasedashastheimportanceofthemedia.Currentequivalentsof

suchdarkhorsecandidatesasMcGovernandCarterlackthetimetobuildonanyearlysuccess.Votersinthelateprimary

statesareeffectivelydisenfranchised.AsRhodesCookhaswritten,onlythebestknown,bestfunded,andbestnet

workedcandidatesstandachancetowin,whereonlyvotersintheearlieststateshaveameaningfulsay,andwherethe

outcomeisdeterminedjustwhenmanyAmericansarebeginningtotuneintowhatishappening.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf


25/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingDecreasesVoterParticipation.

Mayerin2004,




February

9,

2008.

Afourthimportanteffectoffrontloadingisitseffectonvoterparticipation.

Beforefrontloadinghaddeveloped,beforeithadgoneveryfar,mostcontestednominationraceslastedatleastinto

earlyJune.Theylastedallthewaytilltheendoftheprimaries.Butasthesystemhasbecomemorefrontloaded,nomina

tionracesnecessarilygetdecidedalotearlier.

In1996,forexample,BobDolehadwonamajorityofhispartysconventiondelegatesbyMarch26th.

In2000,bothGeorgeBushandAlGoreclinchedtheirpartynominationonMarch14th.

So

races

get

settled

very

early

these

days

with

lots

of

states

still

to

hold

their

primaries.

In2000,forexample,25statesheldtheirprimariesafterbothBillBradleyandJohnMcCainhadofficiallyannouncedtheir

withdrawalfromtherace.

Notsurprisingly,thissortofsituationhasamajorimpactonvoterparticipation.

Inboth1996and2000,weestimatethatoncethenominationracesweresettled,voterparticipationratesintheRepubli

cationprimariesdeclinedbybetween35and40percent.
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf


26/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingDisenfranchisesVoters.



January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx.AccessedFebruary9,2008.

AnthonyCorrado,aprofessoratColbyCollegeandavisitingfellowinGovernanceStudiesatBrookings,agreed,saying"we

haveaprocessnowthatinthebestcasewilldisenfranchisethevotersinatleastathirdofthestatesbecausethedie

isalreadycastbeforetheygotothepolls."

Corradosaidthatthis"hyperacceleratedcalendar"hasmadefundraising(andtheexemptionoffederalmatchingfunds)a

moreimportantandcrucialpartofcampaigning,ascandidatesneedtobewellfundedlongbeforetheIowacaucusand

NewHampshireprimary.

"We'vecreatedaprocessthatputsapremiumonwhat[formerTexasRepublicansenator]PhilGrammcalled'thepoliti

cian'sbestfriend:readycash.'"
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspx


27/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingResultsInShallowDecisionMaking.

Mayer&Buschin2004,

WilliamG.Mayer[AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,NortheasternUniversity]andAndrewE.Busch[AssociatePro

fessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofDenver].TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations.WashingtonDC:

BrookingsInstitution

Press.

2004.

p.

63.

Inafrontloadedsystem,inshort,votersareforcedtoreachafinaldecisionabouttheirpartysnextpresidentialnominee

inaremarkablyshortperiodoftime.Theevidencestronglysuggestthattheydosoonthebasisoffairlyshallowandsu

perficialknowledgeaboutmanyofthetopcandidatesandnoknowledgeatallaboutsomemajorcontenders.Equally

important,frontloadingmakesitallbutimpossibleforthevoterstoreconsidertheirinitialjudgmentifnewinformation

becomesavailable.

Mayer&Buschin2004,


ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofDenver].TheFrontLoadingProbleminPresidentialNominations.

WashingtonDC:BrookingsInstitutionPress.2004.pp.5657.

Theprincipalproblemwithfrontloadingisthatitgreatlyacceleratesthevotersdecisionprocessandthusmakesthe

wholesystemlessdeliberative,lessrational,lessflexible,andmorechaotic.Itwillprobablystrikesomereadersasstrange

toseetheAmericanpresidentialnominationprocessdescribedasreachingadecisiontooquickly.Thisis,afterall,asys

teminwhichalmosteveryseriouspresidentialaspirantmustannouncehisorhercandidacyinthelatewinterorearly

springoftheyearprecedingtheelection.(Infact,mostcontendershavebeenlayingthegroundworkfortheircampaigns

formonthsorevenyearsbeforetheofficialannouncementismade.)Evenunsuccessfulpresidentialcandidatesgenerally

spendafullyearonthecampaigntrail.ForeignobserversofAmericanpolitics,particularlythosefromGreatBritain,are

alternatelyamazedanappalledattheextraordinaryamountoftimethatpresidentsandwouldbepresidentsdevoteto

campaigninginsteadofgoverning.

Byanreasonablestandard,Americanpresidentialcampaignsareverylong.Theproblemisthattoomuchofthecam

paigningoccurswhilenoneofthevotersarepayingattentionandtoolittlewhentheyfinallystarttobecomeinterested.


28/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingPreventsDarkHorseCandidates.

Altschulerin2008,


AnIdeaWhoseTimeHasCome?TheForum.5(4).2008.pp.67.http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/.

AccessedFebruary

9,

2008.

Acommonobjectiontoanationalprimaryisthat,unlikethecurrentsystem,alittleknowncandidatesuchasJimmy

Carterwouldbeunabletobuilduponearlysuccessinafewsmallstatestowinthenomination.Thefactthatnearlyall

thosemakingthisargumentgiveCarterastheirprimeexhibitsuggeststhatchangesinthenominationprocessduringthe

pastthirtyyearshavereducedtheforceofthisargument.AsRichardPioushaspointedout,since1980everycontender

(withtheexceptionofKerryin2004)whoeventuallywonamajorpartynominationledthefieldinfundsraisedonDe

cember31oftheyearpriortotheconvention.NorwasKerryadarkhorse,startingthecampaignfarbetterknownthan

thefundraisingleader,HowardDean,whoflamedoutsoquicklythathefinishedwellbehindKerryinbothIowaandNew

Hampshire.

Again,theculpritisfrontloading.SomanyprimariesfollowsoquicklyafterIowaandNewHampshirethattheresimplyis

too

little

time

for

a

dark

horse

to

build

on

an

early

success.

James

Campbell

describes

the

current

situation

well:

The

compressedschedulenowrequirescandidatestoruninalargenumberofstatesatonce,afeatonlyacandidatewitha

largenationalorganizationandlotsofmoneycandowell.Thefrontloadingofprimariesandcaucusespreventslongshot

candidatesfromexploitingearlyvictoriesandgainingmomentum.Ifthecurrentsystemgivesdarkhorsecandidateslittle

ornochance,changingittoanationalprimarywoulddothemnoharm.

Mayerin2004,




Whattypeofcandidatebenefitsfromfrontloading?Aswedetailinthebook,theressomepossibilitythatgiventheright

setofcircumstances, frontloadingcouldhelpalongshotoraninsurgentcandidate.Butineveryracetodate,theevi

denceis

pretty

clear

that

front

loading

has

benefited

the

front

runner.

Whenthesystemwaslessfrontloaded,candidatescoldconcentratetheirtimeandresourcesonarelativelysmallnum

berofearlystates,andfigurethatiftheydidwellthere,thewouldthenhavetheopportunitytoorganizeandcampaignin

laterstateprimaries.

Today,bycontrast,onceeverycampaignhastobeprepared.ThemomentNewHampshireisover,torun,ineffect,a

fullscalenationalcampaign,tofacesevenprimariesinthenextweekandthirteenmoreinthefourweeksafterthat.

Almostbydefinition,longshotshavetroubledoingthat.Onlyacandidatewhoisalreadywellknownandwellfinanced

canbepreparedtocampaigninsomanystatesitwants.
http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.bepress.com/forum/vol5/iss4/art5/


29/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingFuelsTheMoneyPrimary.

Corradoin2004,


PresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.

AccessedFebruary

9,

2008.

Thishasbecomeaverycashdominatedsystem,notjustafundraisingdominatedsystemasweusetohave,butnowa

cashdominatedsystem,becausethemostimportantthatacandidateneedsislotsofcashonhandthatheorsheisable

tospendinthisearlystageoftheprocess.

Infactcandidatesnow,inadditiontohavingtoorganizeearlyinamultiplenumberofstates,inordertomeetthefiling

deadline,whichinmanycasesgetpushedbackasthecalendargetspushedback;inordertoformtheirdelegateslates,

whichhavealwaysbeenanimportantpartofDemocraticnominatingcontestsandwhichneedtogetdoneinthemonths

ofOctoberandNovemberandDecemberwhenyouretryingtorecruitprominentpeopletobeonyourdelegateslates;

andinadditiontowooingthesuperdelegatesandgettingendorsementsfromstateandlocalpoliticiansnowhavetobe

upandrunningontheairlongbeforeanytraditionalperiod.

Corradoin2004,


PresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf .


Whatthismeansisthatcandidatesnotonlyhavetofocusalotonfundraising,buttheyalsoseethecashgooutthedoor

veryquickly.

Infactoneofthethingsaboutthisprocessisthatitisincrediblymoneyintensiveatthefrontend.Anywellfundedcandi

dateisgoingtobebudgetingatleast$4millioninIowaalone.Theyregoingtobebudgeting$2millioninNewHampshire.

Sothats$6millionthattheyregoingtobespending,ataminimum,justinthosetwostates.

Withcandidatesnowoptionoutofthepublicfinancingsystem,thatdrivesupthecostsevenmore.




Mannsaidthatthecurrentsystemcreatedan"invisibleprimary"duringtheyearleadinguptotheIowacaucusNew

Hampshireprimary.

"Theactivitiesofthecandidatesduringthatyearinraisingmoney,organizinginIowaandNewHampshire,garneringparty

endorsements,tryingoutcampaignthemesandmessages,garneringrespectfromvariousgatekeepersintheprocessare

allexceedinglyimportant,"saidMann.

Mannremindedpanelistsofothercrucialfactorsindeterminingaparty'spresidentialnominee."It'sworthremindingour

selvesthatthebestpredictorofwhowinsthenominationsince1980hasbeenbelieveitornotnotthepollsalone,not

themoney,"hesaid,"butreallysophisticatedmeasuresofpartyendorsements,ofthemajorplayersinthedemocratic

andrepublicanpartywhoaremakingjudgmentsaboutcandidatesduringthisinvisibleprimaryyear."
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf


30/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingFuelsTheMoneyPrimary.

Corradoin2004,


PresidentialPolitics?Brookings.edu.January14,2004.http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf.

AccessedFebruary

9,

2008.

Thistrendtowardearlyadvertisinghasbeensopronounced,Iwouldmakenoteofjustonemorepoint.

Ifyoulookatthetop75mediamarkets,theDemocraticcandidateshadairedalready12,700spotsbythebeginningof

December.SomuchforthenotionthatweshouldwaituntilaftertheChristmasrushtotaketotheair.

Thathasincreasedthefinancialdemandsandcreatedasituationinwhichfrontloadinghasheightenedtheimportanceof

thefirstrealprimaryinmyview,themoneyprimary,andwhatwereseeingisevermoreattentionbeinggiventohow

muchmoneycandidatesraiseasoneoftheirprincipalobjectivemeasuresofsuccessintheyearleadinguptotheelection.

Nolongerdowewaitfortheyearendreportstoseehowthecandidatesweredoing.Itsnowgottentothepointwhere

the

midyear

report

in

the

year

before

the

election,

and

even

the

first

quarter

report,

is

a

matter

of

enormous

attention

thatcanhelplaunchacandidacy.

Liebermanin2007,

JosephLieberman.[U.S.Senator,IConnecticut].RegionalPresidentialPrimaryTestimony.September18,2008.

http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdf.AccessedFebruary8,2008.

Andthereisanotherevenmoreinsidiouseffect:Themoretightlypackedtheprimaryschedule,themorereliantcandi

datesbecomeonlargecampaigndonationsandthepeoplewhogivethem.Thefundraisingprimarythisyearhasalready

eliminatedcandidateswhosimplycouldnotraisesufficientfundsquicklyenoughtobecompetitiveinthefirsttwo

monthsofthepresidentialyear.

Thisisnowayfortheworldsgreatestdemocracytochooseitspresident.




Corradosaidthat,giventhefrontloadingprimarycalendarandthetrendtowardsoptingoutofmatchingfunds,"you're

betterofftryingtoraiseasmuchmoneyaspossibleintheyearbeforetheelectionsothatyoucanhaveenoughcashon

handtoforegopublicmatchingfundpaymentsonJanuary1,stillbeabletopayforallofyourtelevisionandcampaigning

inthefrontendoftheyear,andstillofferyourselftheprospectofraisinganunlimitedamountofmoneyduringtheelec

tionyear."
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdfhttp://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2004/0114elections.aspxhttp://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/Lieberman091907.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20040114.pdf


31/147


PFDebate.com|CrossfireBriefs>PRO March2008:PresidentialPrimaries_______.FrontLoadingHasManyUndesirableConsequences.

Graysonin2007,

TreyGrayson.[KentuckySecretaryofState.CoChair,NASSSubcommitteeonPresidentialPrimaries].

TestimonyBeforetheU.S.SenateRulesCommittee.September19,2007.

http://rules.senate.gov/hearings/2007/GraysonTestimony091907.pdf.Accessed

February

8,

2008.

Whilewecannotpredictallofthenegativeimpactsofthe2008calendaratthistime,thereareafewoutcomesthatare

alreadyclearfromthefrontloadingtrend:itmakesthepresidentialcampaignsevenlonger,itrequirescandidatestobe

ginrunningevenearlier,itcompelsthemtoraiseevenmoremoneyandtorelyallthemoreonbigmedia,itdrastically

reducestheoddsforlateentreesanddarkhorses,andevenasmorestateslurchforward,itleavesalmostfortypercentof

ourvotingpopulationeffectivel

107 crossfire mar08

Documents