8 | THURSDAY, MARCH 4, 2010 THE CHRONICLE

NicholasSchwartz

ChrisCusack

The road to san antonioChronicle columnists Chris Cusack and Nicholas Schwartz debate

whether Duke, a potential No. 1 or No. 2 seed, is Final Four material

UConn aside, Blue Devils can match top teams Too much reliance on Thomas to performI was there in Cameron Indoor Sta-

dium as a determined and generally unguardable Jasmine Thomas torched then-No. 3 Ohio State for 24 second-half

points en route to an im-pressive 83-67 upset. From my seat on press row, it looked like an experienced Blue Devil

squad led by one of the top guards in the country

could grow to be one of the postseason favorites in the coming months.

That, however, was on Dec. 3 of last year,

some 91 days ago, and while players such as Keturah Jackson and Allison Vernerey have since made sizable con-tributions and helped the Blue Devils to a 24-5 record and a

regular season ACC title, Duke is suffering from one setback it never could have predicted.

Jasmine Thomas has lost her mojo.

The same junior point guard who scored 57 points over a two-game stretch against the Buck-eyes and Southern California has since fallen a bit flat in ACC play. While Thomas can still break out offensively—she scored 22 and 20 points against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, respec-tively—it’s been her alarming drop-off in offensive efficiency that is cause for concern.

Over Duke’s first 15 games in which the Blue Devils went 13-2, Thomas shot just over 40 percent from the field and averaged a team-high 15.8

points per game. Since a midseason clash with Wake Forest, however, it’s been all downhill for Duke’s star.

In the last 14 contests, Thomas has av-eraged 5.78 made field goals per game—just 0.38 more than her average over the first 15 games—despite taking over two more shots per game (from 13.4 to 15.9). But it’s not just Thomas’s ability to score that has been compromised.

Thomas began the first 15 games averaging 5.1 assists per game, but has averaged almost a full two assists fewer over the last 14 games.

Overall, she drops just over four dimes per game this year, but that num-ber drops to three when you only count games against ranked teams.

In Duke’s losses this year, Thomas’s inef-fectiveness has been showcased. The guard has fired just under 20 shots per game and has shot 31.9 percent on average in each of Duke’s losses and is dishing just 3.4 assists per game in those defeats.

Thomas’s struggles may signal a con-fidence issue, or it could just be a func-tion of wear and tear—she leads the Blue Devils in minutes per game with 32. Although Duke will have a bit of a break before the ACC Tournament, and another extended rest before the NCAA Tournament, there’s no rest for the wea-ry once the big dance begins.

If Duke’s best player is off, it’s any-one’s guess as to where the points are going to come from. Five players besides Thomas average between seven and 10 points per game, but of that bunch, only Karima Christmas can be expected to create on the perimeter.

On a team where she is both the prima-ry ballhandler and primary scorer, Thomas is going to need to play her best in order for Duke to see San Antonio.

Why not us?That’s the question that should be post-

ed on every bulletin board and every wall of Duke’s locker room. It should be head coach Joanne P. McCallie’s mantra, perma-nently branded into the minds of her play-ers. The Blue Devils should believe, and rightfully so, that they have what it takes to make the Final Four come April.

Duke will likely be given a No. 2 seed when the tournament bracket is released in two weeks, setting up a potential Elite Eight matchup against one of the top four teams in the country: Connecticut, Stanford, Ne-braska or Tennessee.

True, Geno Auriemma coaches what is far and away the best team in women’s bas-ketball (possibly in its history), winners of 69 straight games , including a dominating 33-point victory over the Blue Devils at Cam-eron Indoor Stadium. The Huskies appear destined to come away with another NCAA title, their fifth in 10 years, leaving the rest of the nation clamoring for second place.

If Duke gets stuck in Connecticut’s bracket come Selection Monday, it would be next to impossible to envision the Blue Devils sliding their way into San Antonio.

Stanford is the obvious choice to face Connecticut in the championship game. Its only loss came at the hands of the Hus-kies before Christmas, 80-68, arguably Con-necticut’s toughest game of the year. The Cardinal have also demolished the Pac-10 to the tune of an average margin of victory of over 24 points per game.

Yet Stanford has not played a top-tier foe—conference or nonconference—on the road all season, not counting Connecticut.

The Pac-10 has no teams currently ranked in the top 25, and the Cardinal’s last—and best—nonconference road win was against unranked Fresno State before New Year’s.

True, the Cardinal used a big first-half

run to earn a 71-55 victory over the Blue Devils in Palo Alto, but the game came on the heels of a nine-day layoff for Duke’s ex-ams. Stanford was able to ride the Blue Dev-ils’ cold shooting after the layoff in the first half, but Duke matched the Cardinal in the second period. That loss can be explained in many different ways, but two stand out.

First, the Blue Devils shot just 28 per-cent from the field, well below the team’s average of 42 percent. Sec-ond, on a day in Maples Pavilion that celebrated the Stanford foot-ball program, the home court ad-vantage was enormous—an edge that cannot be ignored considering that the top four teams have yet to lose a game on their home floors. However, if all else stays even, the Cardinal will likely wind up in a different region than the Blue Devils; as a result, No. 3 Nebras-ka or No. 4 Tennessee look to be Duke’s largest obstacles on the road to the Final Four.

On first glance, the Corn-huskers are the most intimi-dating of the two. Standing undefeated at 27-0, with wins over No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 15 Texas A&M (a team that pound-ed Duke Nov. 15, 95-77), No. 18 Texas and No. 20 Oklahoma State, Nebraska is led in scoring by two senior forwards: Kelsey Griffin and Cory Montgomery.

However, the Blue Devils’ great-est strength this season has been rebounding and using size inside to own the paint. The team has a positive-9.7 rebounding margin, better than Nebraska or Tennessee.

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SEE CUSACK ON PAGE 10

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