10 top ten technologies to invest (2010)

Top Ten Technologies and their Market Potential

Presented by

Krzysztof Grzybowski

Industry Analyst / Team Leader

Frost & Sullivan

Warsaw, 22nd April 2010

“… There are 100 ways to wisely spend money, but only few of them are successful…”.

2© Frost & Sullivan 2010

Krzysztof Grzybowski

Krzysztof Grzybowski is Industry Analyst in the Frost & Sullivan Technical Insights Team. He focuses on monitoring and analyzing emerging trends, technologies and market in of chemicals, materials, and food ingredients industries across the globe.

He has joined the Frost & Sullivan in December 2007.Additionally, he is one of the contributor to the Technical Insights' weekly Advanced Coatings & Surface Technology Alert, Nanotechnology Alert and High-Tech Materials Alert .

Krzysztof holds a PhD in Chemical and Process Engineering from Warsaw University of Technology in Poland. Before joining Frost & Sullivan Krzysztof was leading research project at Energy Conversion Research Center in Kyoto. Further, he was working as assistant professor at Institute of Physical Chemistry of Polish Academy of Science and focusing on development of microfluidic devices. He has several publications referring to the nanomaterials and nanoparticles, microfluidic devices, aerosols and filtration processes in noted periodics.

Industry Analyst,Team Leader

PhD Chemical and Process

Engineering, Warsaw

University of Technology,

Poland

Research Fellow of Energy

Conversion Research Center,

Kyoto, Japan.


Agenda

o Few words as introduction to the presentation

o Our assessment methodology

o List of the most attractive technologies to invest

o Detailed analysis of each of the chosen technologies

o Comments on applicability of Top Ten Technologies in

CEE area.

o Conclusions and questions


is innovation?

are the challenges

of its commercialization?

are the best ways to transfer innovation into industry?

are the most promising technologies to invest?

WhatWhat What What


is innovation?

are the challenges of its

commercialization?

are the best ways to transfer innovation into

industry?

are the most promising

technologies to invest?

WhatWhat What What


Selection Methodology

Create a set of technologies (> 25) that are poised to havea significant impact in

the near-mid term

Create a set of technologies (> 25) that are poised to havea significant impact in

the near-mid term

Develop 1st level filter criterions to assess true potential of technologies across applications. For that purpose, Frost & Sullivanused the Technology Analysis Framework (TAF).Our approach utilized the interrelation & dynamics between all

focal points (such as NEED, FUNDING,OPPORTUNITY andCAPABILITY) that govern technology development, adoption

and deployment in any industry for any technology

Develop 1st level filter criterions to assess true potential of technologies across applications. For that purpose, Frost & Sullivanused the Technology Analysis Framework (TAF).Our approach utilized the interrelation & dynamics between all

focal points (such as NEED, FUNDING,OPPORTUNITY andCAPABILITY) that govern technology development, adoption

and deployment in any industry for any technology

Arrive at the final list of top 10 global technologiesby testing them against 2nd level criterions

Arrive at the final list of top 10 global technologiesby testing them against 2nd level criterions

Step 1

Collection of Technologies across Industries

Step 2

2 phased evaluation of Technologies to identify the top

candidates

Step 0

Framework finalization

Top 10 Hot & Emerging Technologies …


• CIGS Solar

• 3D Integration

• Autonomous Systems

• White Biotech

• Lasers

… and the “award” goes to …

• Nanomaterials

• Flexible Electronics

• Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage

• Smart Materials

• Green IT

Through its constant global assessment, Frost & Sullivan has identified the following key technology platforms that are poised to have a profound impact on a number of sectors across the globe. These areas present a potential high ROI for any foray made by VC’s, PE, Investment Bankers etc.


Recession is a catalyst for increased innovation

Global Nanotechnology market

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

year

$ b

n

In 2015 global nanotechnology market

will reachvalue of 2500 $bn

Global R&D expenditures on Nanotechnology

0,000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

year

$ b

n

Skeptics suspected that companies would cut R&D funds on the first sign of

red ink. Innovation is critical as companies are preparing for upturn. So, many companies have expanded their

products portfolio or pursue new solutions to improve company’s growth

and margins.

Skeptics suspected that companies would cut R&D funds on the first sign of

red ink. Innovation is critical as companies are preparing for upturn. So, many companies have expanded their

products portfolio or pursue new solutions to improve company’s growth

and margins.

Abandoning the R&D programs is like unilateral disarmament in wartime.

Companies are committed in product development for many years and going out

from R&D investments could impact the entity’s market potential for many years.

Tough times are the best moment for building advantage over competitors.

Abandoning the R&D programs is like unilateral disarmament in wartime.

Companies are committed in product development for many years and going out

from R&D investments could impact the entity’s market potential for many years.

Tough times are the best moment for building advantage over competitors.

Source: Frost & Sullivan


Nanomaterials

Production

Insight

• Exfoliation

• Epitaxial Growth

Potential Applications

• Aerospace • Automotive • Fuel Cells • Electronic Devices• Space, Niche etc.

Property Advantages

• High degrees of toughness

• Surge in electrical conductivity with change in volume addition

• Planar morphology yields conductivity increases in base polymers of a factor of 20

• Improved surface hardness/scratch resistance

• Improvement in flammability characteristics of materials

Most of the R&D efforts in nanocomposites are focused on the integration of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) or inorganic nanoparticles into polymer matrices. Nanotubes and nanoparticles have experienced many years of research and development effort on a global scale. Touted as the ‘next star’ of Nanotech world, Graphene has inherent qualities that might make it a serious competitor for carbon nano tubes (CNT’s).

Frost & Sullivan believes strained economic situations provide an opportunity for stakeholders (material & product developers; R&D

entities; VC’s) to use their resources (time & money) towards assessing the real market potential of Graphene as low production cost

is one its biggest value proposition.

Active Entities

• Princeton University • University of Manchester• Northwestern University • University of Akron

PotentialCost

• In case of a typical material with thickness of 30 nm, its prices should be in the range of 50$ per kg for large quantities order.• Generally, prices of MWCNT & SWCNT (as its more difficult to produce) haven’t really dropped significantly in the last few years triggering a drive in Graphene related R&D

Insight

• Vorbeck• Nanotek•Xg Science

Example – Graphene


Nanomaterials penetration – Transparent conductive film case study

• ITO has dominated the market of electronic goods, but end users expected better electronic performance andlower costs

• ITO has dominated the market of electronic goods, but end users expected better electronic performance andlower costs

• Idea was born to disperse the conductive carbon nanotubes in polymers in order to provide transparent and conductive coatings and foils. Initially, the idea was criticized mostly by the whole market.

• Idea was born to disperse the conductive carbon nanotubes in polymers in order to provide transparent and conductive coatings and foils. Initially, the idea was criticized mostly by the whole market.

• Now, we have two key players offering conductive filmsmade of CNTs. Even despite the fact that ITO becomesnow cheaper, mostly due to the falling prices of Indium,the CNTs conductive foils and conductive polymers will grab more market share in near future.

• Now, we have two key players offering conductive filmsmade of CNTs. Even despite the fact that ITO becomesnow cheaper, mostly due to the falling prices of Indium,the CNTs conductive foils and conductive polymers will grab more market share in near future.

One of the most popular on the market transparent conductive films - ITO (Indium Tin Oxide) is continuously replaced by nanosolutions

ITO has dominated

market of transparent

conductive films for

electronic

equipment. However,

its lack of flexibility,

expensive

processing and

fragility stimulated

development of other

solutions.


Flexible Electronics

Current and developed solutions

Market PotentialTechnology

ConsumerElectronics

Potential Markets with connected needs Medical

Devices

Military

Food Packaging

SupplyChain

Global Printed Electronics Market

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

year

Re

ve

nu

es

[$ b

n]

0,00%

5,00%

10,00%

15,00%

20,00%

25,00%

30,00%

35,00%

40,00%

45,00%

Gro

wth

rat

e [

%]

Revenues

Growth Rate


• Huge successes of CdTe solar cells technology come with some materials problems (price, alleged toxicity)

• Current development of CIGS solar cells promise their market success.

• Huge successes of CdTe solar cells technology come with some materials problems (price, alleged toxicity)

• Current development of CIGS solar cells promise their market success.

CIGS (copper indium gallium selenide) solar cells are one of the PV solutions on technology roadmap

Silicon

solar cells

2nd generation

solar cells

3rd and 4th

generation solar cells

CIGS possess the

best position to

conquer PV market

• Traditional silicon solar cells were found to be relatively expensive due to the high silicon prices (impacted by the demand of electronic industry)

• Traditional silicon solar cells were found to be relatively expensive due to the high silicon prices (impacted by the demand of electronic industry)

• There are few types of currently developed solar cells

• The most popular silicon counterparts are now CdTesolar cells and CIGS.

• There are few types of currently developed solar cells

• The most popular silicon counterparts are now CdTesolar cells and CIGS.

CIGS is the most efficient 2nd generation solar cells (Eff = 19.9%)


CIGS SolarKey Insight: Solar accounted for 29% (119 deals in 2008)

of the overall number of VC and Private Equity investments in the Renewable Energy Sector

There is expected to be a drop of 45% in the module price leading to massive deployments and growth opportunities for stakeholders

involved


Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage

Fuel Cell

Electric Vehicle

Micro UAVSolider

ModernizationHuman Energy

Harvesting


Wasted heat reutilization with Thermoelectrics

• American Department of Energy initiated program of fuel consumption reduction in cars by application of thermoelectrics. The aim is to reduce the fuel usage by 10% harvesting the heat of the exhaust gases and transform them into electricity with thermoelectrics.

• 4 strong research teams have undertaken this challenge.

• American Department of Energy initiated program of fuel consumption reduction in cars by application of thermoelectrics. The aim is to reduce the fuel usage by 10% harvesting the heat of the exhaust gases and transform them into electricity with thermoelectrics.

• 4 strong research teams have undertaken this challenge.

5%

less

fuel

??

• Current proof of concept is BMW Series 5 , Model Year 2010, 3.0 Liter Gasoline Engine with Thermoelectric Generator with a fuel consumption reduction 5%.

• Current proof of concept is BMW Series 5 , Model Year 2010, 3.0 Liter Gasoline Engine with Thermoelectric Generator with a fuel consumption reduction 5%.


Smart Materials

Conglomeration of various researchers worldwide

Developed materials that could respond to external stimuli such as temperature, pH, light, electric field, chemicals, and ionic strength by itself

Unilever (Langmuir 2003), L’Oreal, University of Illinois

Janus particles (systems) – structures of functional properties that vary across material’s surface

Description Developed by

Developed a family of materials, which possesses the ability to heal themselves without any external activity

Beckman Institute - UIAC, Illinois, USA

Developed a transparent plastic that, if fractured, will mend itself when heated. This can be used to create self-repairing products

Exotic Materials Institute - UCLA, Los Angeles, USA

Smart Polymers for Biomedical Applications

Autonomic Materials

Self-Repairing Plastic Products

Chemical systems of controlled behavior

� Smart materials sense changes in the environment around them and respond in a predictable manner

� Hold immense business potential across a wide range of industries

� Using a smart material instead of conventional mechanisms to sense and

respond, can simplify devices, reducing weight and the chances of failure

Key Insight: Within the various types of smart materials, Piezoelectric materials are expected to one of the fastest

growth areas with a major size of the overall market


Green IT

Source: Frost & Sullivan

The goals of green IT include the usage of novel technological solutions to reduce the carbon footprint and decrease green house gas emissions resulting from the IT operations of companies, as well as to reduce energy consumption and therefore limit the

burning up of fossil fuels.Green IT predominantly refers to greener ways of

exploiting computing power and utilizing data storage, as well reducing energy consumption involved in

running large IT operations.

The goals of green IT include the usage of novel technological solutions to reduce the carbon footprint and decrease green house gas emissions resulting from the IT operations of companies, as well as to reduce energy consumption and therefore limit the

burning up of fossil fuels.Green IT predominantly refers to greener ways of

exploiting computing power and utilizing data storage, as well reducing energy consumption involved in

running large IT operations.

Green computing has undergone a significant makeover, from being a do-good concept for

showcasing the company’s environmental consciousness and for demonstrating better corporate social responsibility (CSR), to actually being a must-do strategy. Rising energy costs and economic hardships

have brought a stronger spotlight on green IT solutions, more for the cost benefits that it offers than for the

environmental benefits it implies.

Green computing has undergone a significant makeover, from being a do-good concept for

showcasing the company’s environmental consciousness and for demonstrating better corporate social responsibility (CSR), to actually being a must-do strategy. Rising energy costs and economic hardships

have brought a stronger spotlight on green IT solutions, more for the cost benefits that it offers than for the

environmental benefits it implies.


IC systems evolution toward 3D packaging

The Road AheadCritical markers for sector growth

3D Integration Approaches

System-In-Package (SiP)

System-On-Chip (SoC)

3D Integrated Circuit (IC)

Illustrations


Autonomous Systems

� Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and autonomous land vehicles (ALV) are the key entities of focus for autonomous system development

� Autonomous land vehicle (ALV) is a complex wheeled or tracked robotic structure, which is typically equipped with sophisticated sensors including stereo cameras, laser scanners or/and radars to detect terrain and obstacles

� Most of the developments and technology breakthroughs in this space have their origin in military projects and applications

� However, the civilian market demand is also picking up with applications like civil services, first responders, homeland security etc.

2010 2020 2030 2040

Key Insight: Globally, on-going programs in related areas is currently worth $11 billion and it is

expected to be one of the highest area of spending


White Biotech

Developed a new bacterial strain capable of degrading straw, agricultural

plant waste and so on by converting them into renewable energy fuels

Developed a new bacterial strain capable of degrading straw, agricultural

plant waste and so on by converting them into renewable energy fuels

Developed a method for using rapeseed for detoxifying contaminated

land by combining the plant, which is grown for biofuel, with heavy metal

tolerant bacteria

Developed a method for using rapeseed for detoxifying contaminated

land by combining the plant, which is grown for biofuel, with heavy metal

tolerant bacteria

Employed DNA insertional mutagenesis and high-throughput screening

approaches to identify genes that play a vital role in enabling microalgae

to produce biofuels

Employed DNA insertional mutagenesis and high-throughput screening

approaches to identify genes that play a vital role in enabling microalgae

to produce biofuels

Bioethanol

Production

Bioethanol

Production

Cleaning Contaminated

Soil

Cleaning Contaminated

Soil

Hydrogen and Hydrocarbon

Production

Hydrogen and Hydrocarbon

Production

Related Global Developments

� Considered by many as a “hidden solution”

� Involves use of micro-organisms and biological catalysts (like enzymes) to the production of bio-based chemicals, materials and fuels

� Expected to outstrip ‘Green’ and ‘Red’ Biotech as market demand picks up in the coming years

� Substantial increase in the investment of industrial biotech isexpected to pay dividends for sustainable energy and materials production

Key Insight: Potential market size by 2014 (of chemicals relying on White Biotech capabilities) is

expected to be > $72 billion


White Biotech case studies

• Traditional chemical synthesis includes 8 step of

chemical synthesis

• Biotechnological process of BASF require 1

fermentation step

• Traditional chemical synthesis includes 8 step of

chemical synthesis

• Biotechnological process of BASF require 1

fermentation step

Vitamin B2 productionVitamin B2 production

• Traditional bio-chemical synthesis 10 steps

• DSM combination of enzymatic processes and

fermentation allowed for materials and energy saving

by 65%! with variable cost reduction by 50%.

• Traditional bio-chemical synthesis 10 steps

• DSM combination of enzymatic processes and

fermentation allowed for materials and energy saving

by 65%! with variable cost reduction by 50%.

Cephalexin (antibiotic)Cephalexin (antibiotic)

• NatureWorsks from CargillDow is used in clothing,

packaging and electronic. It is not produced from oil or

natural gas but sugar or corn. Benefits are lower

demand for fossils (from 25 to 55%), which is still

needed,but company promise to replace them in future.

• NatureWorsks from CargillDow is used in clothing,

packaging and electronic. It is not produced from oil or

natural gas but sugar or corn. Benefits are lower

demand for fossils (from 25 to 55%), which is still

needed,but company promise to replace them in future.

Bio – based polymersBio – based polymers

• Traditional approach is based on material treatment

with hot alkaline solution

• Enzymatic approach of Novozymes allowed for

decrease environmental impact of this process and

reduce energy consumption by 25% and cost by 20%.

• Traditional approach is based on material treatment

with hot alkaline solution

• Enzymatic approach of Novozymes allowed for

decrease environmental impact of this process and

reduce energy consumption by 25% and cost by 20%.

Scouring of textilesScouring of textiles

Cost

En

vir

on

men

tal im

pact

Traditional

Biotech

Biotech offers highly promising alternative to the traditional chemical

synthesis.


Lasers

North America -Share 2008 : ~36%Share 2014 : ~33%

GlobalMarket in 2008 : $6.22 Billion Market in 2014 : $9.10 Billion

CAGR (2008 -2014) : 8.2%

Europe -Share, 2008 : ~34%Share, 2014 : ~31%

Asia -Share, 2008 : ~29%Share, 2014 : ~35%

Growth Attributes• CO2 lasers are expected to grow due to demand for high power lasers

in industrial applications (cutting and welding)• YAG lasers also offer significant opportunity in industrial laser applications and medical lasers. • High power solid state lasers are also increasingly used in military applications• Fibre lasers are expected to increase their market share mainly due to the demand from industrial materials processing applications using low power• Excimer lasers are expected to offer opportunity in semiconductor and medical applications

Long Term Key Opportunities in Defense Sector –“Directed Energy Weapons”

Solid State Fibre T:Sapphire Diode CO2 Helium Neon

Types of Lasers


Importancefor CEE

Undeveloped

Mature

Energy Storage

Smart Materials

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

Impact Mapping of Top Ten Technologies on CEE Industry

Flexible Electronics

Nanotechnology

Green IT

CIGS

3d Packaging

Autonomous Systems

White Biotech

Lasers


CEE attractiveness for R&D activities

• Increasing strength of local economies

• Human Capital

• Accessibility of high level specialists

• Strong institutional support

• Increasing domestic markets

• EU Structural Funds

• Special Economic Zones

CEE Region holds

extensive potential for

R&D activities across

various technologies

and industries. Its

undeniable

capabilities have

already convinced

various industrial

players to localize

their strategic R&D

divisions in this part of

Europe.

CEE Region holds

extensive potential for

R&D activities across

various technologies

and industries. Its

undeniable

capabilities have

already convinced

various industrial

players to localize

their strategic R&D

divisions in this part of

Europe.

Key reasons for investing in R&D in CEEKey reasons for investing in R&D in CEE


Foreign investments in R&D centers in Poland

Many companies

understood the

huge potential of

Poland as area for

R&D activities.

Many companies

understood the

huge potential of

Poland as area for

R&D activities.

GE, Avio, Samsung

Electronic, SAS Institutes,

TopGan, Avon, Reckitt

Benckiser, Ammono,

Canon, 3M,Basell,…

GE, Avio, Samsung

Electronic, SAS Institutes,

TopGan, Avon, Reckitt

Benckiser, Ammono,

Canon, 3M,Basell,…

ABB, Google, Pliva,

Delphi, IBM, Apriso,

Motorola, Sabre, Pratt &

Whitney,...

ABB, Google, Pliva,

Delphi, IBM, Apriso,

Motorola, Sabre, Pratt &

Whitney,...

Source: Frost & Sullivan, PAIZSource: Frost & Sullivan, PAIZ

Siemens, Delphi,

Alstom, Volvo, Remy

Int., Opera Software,...

Siemens, Delphi,

Alstom, Volvo, Remy

Int., Opera Software,...

Glaxo SmithKline,

Telecordia, Microsoft,...

Glaxo SmithKline,

Telecordia, Microsoft,...

Intel, Compuware,

Humax, Lucent

Technologies, Alstom,...

Intel, Compuware,

Humax, Lucent

Technologies, Alstom,...


Few final remarks and conclusions

22

33

44

55

11

Nanotechnology, White Biotech, Lasers, Energy Storage Systems,… are the most probable areas for CEE players activity. However, developments in other sectors are also possible.

Nanotechnology, White Biotech, Lasers, Energy Storage Systems,… are the most probable areas for CEE players activity. However, developments in other sectors are also possible.

Institutional support (like FP7) will speed up technologies development and stimulate technology transfer from research institutions to industry.

Institutional support (like FP7) will speed up technologies development and stimulate technology transfer from research institutions to industry.

The European policy toward “green” and sustainable solutions stimulates the development and market growth of technologies meeting their criteria.

The European policy toward “green” and sustainable solutions stimulates the development and market growth of technologies meeting their criteria.

Investments in R&D in CEE region are continuously growing and there are local companies that become key players in their areas of expertise.

Investments in R&D in CEE region are continuously growing and there are local companies that become key players in their areas of expertise.

Players from CEE markets are in good technical position to undertake R&D programs related to Top Ten Technologies

Players from CEE markets are in good technical position to undertake R&D programs related to Top Ten Technologies


Thank You

Dr inż. Krzysztof GrzybowskiIndustry Analyst - Team Leader, TIFrost & Sullivan DID +48 22 390 4140Mobile +48 783391860Fax +48 22 390 4160Email:[email protected]

10 top ten technologies to invest (2010)

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