SUPPLY CHAIN WHITE PAPER 10 KEY TRENDS TO UNDERSTAND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

APRIL 2017

ALEXANDRE GARNIER

Garnier.A

In few years only, Supply Chain Management became one of the trendiest topic for organizations facing globalized markets. But in parallel it also remained one of the foggiest topic for managers at every level. Sticking to logistics origins we could stand our ground on initial Supply Chain Management definition (a

system reaching all processes, flows and resources needed to deliver the right product / service at the right place, in the right timing, with the right quality, quantity and cost). But I think the best way for Managers to keep an up to date vision is to have a clear understanding of the main trends shaping business environment. Through this exercise, we clearly see how the essence of Supply Chain Management (systemic approach, vision sharing, animation principles…) is essential to face all challenges emerging.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

CONSULTING MANAGER at KEPLER CONSULTING SHANGHAI In consulting business since 2010 Former warehouse manager in retail industry

Business Master degree - KEDGE BS, 2009 - FRANCE Master of Science in Transport and Logistics - KEDGE BS, 2009 - FRANCE

Expertise in Supply Chain Management, Lean operations, Purchasing Strategies and Management of transformation plan / cost reduction plan

Missions led in various industries : Retail, FMCG, Pharmaceutical, Automotive, Railway, Aeronautics…

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10 KEY TRENDS TO UNDERSTAND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

STATEMENTS

TRANSFORMATION AXIS

KEY ENABLERS

1. Value chain schemes involve a growing complexity for Business Management

2. Needs for Flexibility, Reactivity and Coordination make older models obsolete

3. Technological revolution acts as a trend amplifier

4. Operational Excellence forms a powerful approach for transformation plan set up

5. Fully aligned business models are on top of best practices

6. Refocus on green supply chain should / may occur soon

7. Control of information / data is vital

8. Manager behaviors drive team understanding and involvement

9. Misalignment of skill market and business needs is impacting organization design

10/ TODAY’S SUPPLY CHAIN TRUTH WILL NOT BE APPLICABLE TOMORROW

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#1 VALUE CHAIN SCHEMES INVOLVE A GROWING COMPLEXITY FOR BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

Sources: 1: Global Survey, Mc Kinsey, 2010 / 2: Supply Chain Impact Survey, Cap Gemini, 2013 3: Future of Supply Chain, SCM World, 2016

It involves higher risks for business activities

KEY TOPIC?

COMPLEXITY ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING? The complexity of a system is usually defined by the incapacity for a given actor to correctly and entirely understand: 1/ The environment surrounding him 2/ Other actors’ understanding about this environment 3/ Nature and purpose of actions led by other actors

Complexity is now inherent to every globalized organization

1.2 A complexity clearly found in nature of challenges that Supply Chain Managers are facing in execution of daily operations. From strategic to operational layers, topics assessed are pushing further SCM discipline.

1.3 Knowing that Over last decade, evolution of consumer needs largely contributed to the multiplication of those challenges

1.1 Globalization and international exchanges booming turned Supply Chains into a giant juxtaposition of actors more or less contributing to value creation for clients. A simple mapping exercise reveals how complex SC became.

90% Of SC Managers think that demand is fluctuating more rapidly than 5-10 years ago 2

80% Of SC Managers think that consumer expectation on OTIF has increased since 5-10 years 2

1.4 Numerous actors involved and interactions generated combined to higher expectations at customer side (BtoB and BtoC taken together) have extended the exposition of globalized Supply Chain to various risks

1.5 Among these risks, disruption scenario is the most sensitive one according to SC Managers

Decrease

How supply chain risk 1… % of respondents

… changed overs past few years?

… will change over next 5 years?

Increase No change

68 14 14

69 17 12

Key Supply Chain risk concerns 3 % of respondents

Concerned Not concerned Neutral

59

62

67

69

71

75

21

17

17

20

15

16

20

21

16

9

14

9 Shipping / log. disruptions

Data security / IT incidents

Legal / regulatory issues

Supply shortage

Natural disaster affecting supplies

Financial failure of key supplier

24

24

25

27

28

35

22

25

30

24

32

27

TOP 6 Companies’ challenges in SCM 1 % of respondents

Over past 3 years

Over next 5 years

Increasing pressure from global competition

Increasing consumer expectations about OTIF

Increasingly complex patterns of cust. demand

Increasing cost pressure in logistics / transp.

Increasing volatility of commodity prices

Increasing financial volatility

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#2 NEEDS FOR FLEXIBILITY, REACTIVITY AND COORDINATION MAKE OLDER MODELS OBSOLETE

KEY TOPIC?

FLEXIBILITY REACTIVITY

COORDINATION

ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING? Facing 21st century stakes, the best Supply Chains are the ones able to combine: 1/ The ability to efficiently face demand variabilities (flexibility) 2/ The ability to be responsive and shorten lead time (reactivity) 3/ The ability to raise / align each function on the exact same level of operational excellence (coordination)

Answering modes used by older models are clearly overstepped

That conception impacts process efficiency and lowers Supply Chain performance

2.1 Potential contribution of Supply Chain Management basics is still underestimated

2.2 This lack of vision at top management level is penalizing implementation of rupture scenarios

49% Of SC Managers say that in their company, SC is not understood by CEO and executive Mngt as an “equally important part of business success as sales & marketing or R&D” 1

Sources: 1: Future of Supply Chain, SCM World, 2016 / 2: Global Supply Chain Survey, PwC, 2013 3: Supply Chain Impact Survey, Cap Gemini, 2013

2.3 And daily execution of processes becomes a fire fighter job not allowing to conceive performant and relevant answers for business challenges

2 conceptions of QCD triangle

LEAD-TIME

● Corrective counter

measures

● Preventive

modes VS

VS VS

● Cost driven

approach

● Just In Time

alignment

● Struggling

to avoid delays

● Local

arbitrations

2.4 The comparison between overstepped models and top of the breed actors demonstrates the consistent impact of under performing Supply Chain on company's performance

2.5 It also involves a major risk of losing the customers deceived by the service

73% Of consumer not able to find desired item would purchase it from a different store 3

89% Of consumers are less likely to shop with a retailer who delivers an item at least 1 day late 3

Supply chain performance assessment comparing leading automotive companies to laggards from various sectors 2

EBIT margin (%) Inventory turns (#) Delivery perf. (%)

5,7 10

Laggards Leaders

79 97

Laggards Leaders

6,1 18

Laggards Leaders

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3,1 4,3

Laggards Leaders

How leaders adapt SC to customer segments2

SC configuration(#) Channels (#) Config/channel (#)

1,4 2,1

Laggards Leaders

2,3 2

Laggards Leaders

+50%

#3 TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION ACTS AS A TREND AMPLIFIER

Sources: 1: Supply Chain talent of the future, Deloitte, 2015 / 2: Future of Supply Chain, SCM World, 2016

KEY TOPIC?

TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION

ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING? Late technology developments are impacting Supply Chain professions on two distinct axis: 1/ Information management (through digital revolution happening on tools themselves and on data mastering with big data analytics or block chain technology development for example…) 2/ Process revamping (mainly linked to democratization of advanced technologies as robots, automatized …)

New technologies are at the center of high expectations for SC managers

And they are contributing to shake Supply Chain definition

3.1 Supply Chain Managers fully rely on newly developed tools to support Supply Chain performance. These new technologies are powerful to higher the level of animation within SC (systemic approach, customer centricity, management systems, performance tracking…).

3.2 Among all tools proposed, some are particularly viewed as rupture innovation

Top 10 technologies used in Supply Chain1 % of respondents

Currently used Expect to use

24

26

27

37

37

37

46

48

53

56

48

51

53

50

49

52

47

45

43

39

72

77

80

87

86

89

93

93

96

95 Optimization tools

Demand forecasting

Integrated business planning

Supplier collab. and risk analytics

In-memory computing

GPS and/or RFID

Real-time shipment

Control tower analytics and visual.

Advanced robotics in mnfg

3D printing

3.4 New technologies are offering to customer a fully new access to the offer generating in return high variability multiplying scenarios and changing the way to approach Supply Chains

3.3 Adhesion level varies in function of business sectors and nature of existing stakes (pressure on Quality, Costs or leaD time…)

Disruptive aspect of innovations for SC strategy2 % of respondents seeing named technology as disruptive

Big data analytics

Digital Supply Chain

Internet of things

81% 68% 64%

Disruptive aspect of Digital SC per sector2 % of respondents seeing DSC as disruptive

HI TECH 75%

HEALTHCARE / PHARMA 63%

INDUSTRIAL 64%

CPG / RETAIL 68%

Impact of e-commerce and mobile consumers2 % of respondents

Larger / smaller assortments

No change on assortments

IMPACT ON SKU:

30

70

Larger / smaller Distrib. Centers

No change on Distrib. Centers

IMPACT ON DCs:

45

55

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#4 OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE FORMS A POWERFUL APPROACH FOR TRANSFORMATION PLAN SET UP

Sources: 1: Global Supply Chain Survey, PwC, 2013 / 2: International operational excellence survey, Eurogroup Consulting, 2013

KEY TOPIC?

OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE

ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING? Operational Excellence is the modern variation of Lean Manufacturing designating the Continuous Improvement mindset used to refocus activities on Value Added expected by customer. Coming from automotive it’s articulated around 3 axis: 1/ Process stability (waste hunting, process reingineering…) 2/ Built in quality (standardization, mistake preventing systems…) 3/ Just In Time (continuous flow, closed loops, takt time mngt…)

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Profitability is a major concern within Supply Chain performance tracking

Operational Excellence methodology is now largely spread to improve this profitability

86% Of SC Managers quote “Managing profitability of SC” as a significant SC trend making it the first topic (2nd topic quoted being “Reducing total SC cost” with 85% of respondents)1

4.1 As a main contributor to operating costs, Supply Chain directly drives the operating margin of companies. Assessing, challenging and reducing these costs is now on a daily preoccupation for Managers.

90% Of SC Managers quote “Minimized costs” as a Leading practice and SC value driver making it the first topic (2nd topic quoted being “Maximum delivery performance” with 87% of respondents)1

4.3 They mostly used OE as a turnkey methodology to improve process efficiency and introduce a new mindset regarding people development

4.2 Major part of organizations have at least a first awareness on Operational Excellence toolbox. Most advanced ones are maintaining a constant rhythm for new workshop implementation.

4.4 Various axis of improvement can be assessed using the Lean toolbox

76% Of organizations have “Experience with operational Excellence initiatives”2

51% Of organizations consider has important the start of “new initiatives in next few years”2

20%

21%

24%

36% Business processes,

efficiency

People: behavior, motivation, inspiration, interests

Organizational structure

IT systems

Operational Excellence focus for organizations2 % of respondents

1%

2%

4%

6%

9%

10%

15%

17%

17%

18% Measuring and acting

How Operational Excellence is defined2 % of respondents

Customer oriented working

Complexity reduction

Cooperation w/ supplier & cust.

Support process standardization

Standard processes automation

Shared serv. center for support

Outsourcing non core tasks

“IT islands” solutions

New sales channel

#5 FULLY ALIGNED BUSINESS MODELS ARE ON TOP OF BEST PRACTICES

Sources: 1: Global Supply Chain Survey, PwC, 2013 / 2: SC Management Benchmarking Series, PMG, 2000

KEY TOPIC?

BUSINESS MODEL

ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING? A Business Model basically defines high level strategy to be deployed by a brand to generate revenues. This model directly drive the organization mindset and impact Supply Chain performance. Most advanced actors (Amazon, Ikea, Zara...) demonstrate higher performances thanks to business models integrating Supply Chain as a structuring element of their DNA.

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Best practices of Supply Chain all developed a easily recognizable model

Fully aligned strategies allow Supply Chain Management to express its full potential

Sector: Home furnishing retail Position: “World’s leading multi channel home furnishing retailer” Sales 2016: 34.2b€ Employees: 164 000

Business model at a glance: Built an entire model on customer experience maximization within furniture market (range rotation, product practicality, good value for money, creation of a shopping experience). Became a case study for marketing students worldwide.

Supply Chain alignment: IKEA first succeeded in fitting the item development within business environment (short time to market, design to logistics…) while capturing changing expectation of customers. Then SC has always supported both business and profitability needs (successful multi channel implementation, pooling of sourcing for key sub components…).

Sector: Garment retail Position: “One of the world’s largest distribution groups” TO 2016: 23.3b€ Employees: 153 000

Business model at a glance: Range management is at the center of organization with rotation of collections every 15 days and time to market divided by 4 compared to competitors (1 month vs 4). ZARA is the creator of Fast Fashion approach that is the origin of brand’s success (only 18% of items needs to go through sales vs the double for competitors).

Supply Chain alignment: Footprint is entirely designed to meet time to market needs. Only permanent collections have far shore sourcing, high speed rotation articles are sourced from near shore suppliers (Spain in some cases). Processes are fitted accordingly.

Sector: E-commerce Position: “Largest internet based retailer in the world” Net sales 2015: 107b$ Employees 2015: 231 000

Business model at a glance: Always seeking for innovation to gain market share, test new markets and/or drastically reduce prices for customers. Started from book retail in 1994 and spread progressively to become one of Internet big 4 of with Apple, Google, and Facebook. Now in position of 1st non food retailer in several major countries.

Supply Chain alignment: Supply Chain is supporting cost efficiency model by implementing best of breed processes. Global strategy is including needs regarding logistics capacity extension. It leads to most advanced inventory mngt rules in warehouses, to drone testing for transportation…

“Companies that acknowledge Supply Chain as a strategic asset achieve 70% higher performance”1

9,8 4,2

Average Top quartile

Total SC cost as % of revenue2

7 12 16

Laggards Average Leaders

Average EBIT margin 1

In % In this chart “leaders” are the actors having a well established focus on improvement of their SC performance

ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING? Emerging from a global awareness around environmental concerns, Green Supply Chain gathers all initiatives led to reduce impact of business activities. As of today, 3 topics have consistent maturity: 1/ Gross reduction of carbon footprint for process 2/ Pooling of logistics resources used 3/ Modal transfer of transportation needs

#6 REFOCUS ON GREEN SUPPLY CHAIN SHOULD / MAY OCCUR SOON

KEY TOPIC?

GREEN SUPPLY CHAIN

Sources: 1: Global Survey, Mc Kinsey, 2010 / 2:Executive Survey on SC Sustainability, Alix Partners, 2013 3: Future of Supply Chain, SCM World, 2015

Green Supply Chain softly appears among preoccupation list of SC Manager

But concrete applications are driven by expected gains on economic side

6.1 Environment is still far from trendiest topic but it’s regularly progressing since early 2000s following customer expectation for a “greener” consumption.

16

29

12

41

3

25

30

61

LAST RANK OVER 8 GOALS

Companies’ top goals for SCM 1 % of respondents

Over past 3 years Over next 5 years

Reducing Operating costs

Reducing overall inventory level

Improving quality of products / services

Reducing carbon footprint creating greener SC

TOP 3

6.2 Various areas of improvement have been targeted by companies. Optimization of physical flow is the most promising one, being supported by different types of initiatives.

24

24

34

42

42 Expand raw mat. recycling program

TOP 5 decisions taken for sustainable transports2 % of respondents

Consolidate less than truckload

Introduce energy storage or solar

Introduce returnable packaging

Install fuel saving equipment on private fleet

6.3 At this stage, cost savings frequently lie behind Green Supply Chain implementation explaining the relative lateness of concept implementation

Motivation behind green investment3 % of respondents

Right thing to do and financial playback No plans to invest

Right thing to do

18

32

37

41

43

65

28

50

44

26

34

24

54

18

19

33

23

11 Waste reduction

Sustainable water mngt

Renewable energy

Green products

Ethical sourcing

Circular economy

6.4 And nature of business relationships is not pushing further developments

How important are sustainable / green initiatives in purchasing decisions2 % of respondents

Extremely important

What is more important to your customer2 % of respondents

4 24 44

22 6

84 9 7

Not at all important

Not very important

Somewhat important

Very important

Don’t know

Improved Environmental

impact

Lower cost

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#7 CONTROL OF INFORMATION / DATA IS VITAL

KEY TOPIC?

INFORMATION ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING? Daily Management of Supply Chains is pushing the need for a more transversal vision over business activities. Data handling become critical to capture this vision and take arbitration accordingly. KPI definition (calculation method, scope, target, top down cascading…) and dashboard set up are a basis to give Managers the right levers to drive SC efficiency.

Sources: 1:Supply Chain Impact Survey, Cap Gemini, 2013 / 2: Pain in the Supply Chain survey, DHL, 2013 3: Future of Supply Chain, SCM World, 2015 and 2016 / 4: Global Survey, Mc Kinsey, 2010

Manual and overpassed handling of data is still the norm for a major part of organizations

Whereas Information Systems are now fitted to build a full vision over SC efficiency

7.2 Economical actors are progressively investing on this axis (with various appetites) in order to catch up

7.3 Basic exercises and routines of SC Management are benefiting from automatization of data treatment

7.1 Supply Chain Managers are largely unsatisfied regarding the mode used for data handling in their organization. Lack of vision on activity is highly penalizing as it reduces the capacity to understand activity profiles, profitability conditions and develop answering modes for each upcoming scenario.

86% Of SC Managers “don’t feel strongly that their company has the right tools or resources in place to communicate effectively with executives about SC performance or decisions”1

79% Of SC Managers “report that they do not use advanced modeling techniques to inform business challenges or issues in SCM very often”1

76

63

72

52

Coming investments for healthcare sector2 % of respondents

Current investment Over next 5 years

Order Management system

Web ordering system

Disruptive aspect of cloud computing/sector3 % of respondents

51

55

56

75 Hi tech

CPG & retail

Industrial

Healthcare & pharma

7.4 Most advanced actors are using information to have a full understanding of performance before initiating actions

Data handling used per optimization area3 % of respondents

Automated analysis No analysis

Manual analysis

43

49

57

51

61

38

42

33

41

32

19

9

10

8

6 Network optimization

Cost to serve analysis

SC segmentation

Product lifecycle analysis

Global trade optimization

Level of analysis used for advanced analysis4 % of respondents

No tracking

SUPPLY CHAIN COSTS PER CUSTOMER

INCREMENTAL COSTS MANAGEMENT

30

31 15

11 12

32

21 26

10 12

Full details

Limited details

Some aggregated details

Details but not by customer

No analysis Full details

Qualitative knowledge only

Limited quantitative info.

Good quantitative info.

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#8 MANAGER BEHAVIORS DRIVE TEAM UNDERSTANDING AND INVOLVEMENT

KEY TOPIC?

MANAGER BEHAVIOR

ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING? The right animation of Supply Chain (systemic approach, customer centricity, combination of right tools / mngt systems / performance tracking) entirely rest upon SC Managers capacity to: 1/ Create a strategical vision coming from business model and impacting Supply Chain implementation 2/ Align the organization on this strategical vision with an important focus on people understanding and commitment 3/ Set up and respect Management routines that will support performance tracking and business efficiency research

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Sources: 1: Future of Supply Chain, SCM World, 2015 / 2: Supply Chain Talent of the Future, Deloitte, 2015 3: Supply Chain impact survey, Cap Gemini, 2013 / 4: Global Survey, Mc Kinsey, 2010

SC Managers became the rare birds of modern organizations

Definition of a vision for Supply Chain at Top Management level is a powerful enabler

8.1 SC Managers need to constantly balance their job between strategic and operational levels, between profitability focus of steering committees and “hands on” arbitration requested by middle management. In terms on profile, it results in an interesting mix able to drive transformation plans that come ahead of Supply Chains.

Skills needed for executive profile in 20201 % of respondents

Essential Not part of SC Nice to have

48

58

64

71

72

84

87

90

91

44

40

33

28

26

14

12

9

8

8

2

3

1

2

2

1

1

1 Functional knowledge of core SC funct.

Communication and influence

Business strategy

Change Management

Financial acumen

Analytics

Customer service / sales

Technology enablement

New product development & launch

35

41

42

44

48 Locating high value added activities into Centers of Ecellence

TOP 5 likelihood to change SC operating model2 % of respondents

Increased outsourcing of low VA activities

Segment SC strategies and offerings

Align physical network with evolving customer footprint

Increased outsourcing of high VA activities

8.2 General awareness of Top Management regarding Supply Chain stakes is now globally good. But vision on applicable scenarios and understanding of sensitivities is still weak.

69% Of SC Managers “say executives and business decision makers are concerned about SC issues impacting revenue and profitability”3

34% Of SC Managers “believe executives in their company have a great deal of understanding of the performance of the company’s SC”3

No / limited interactions

CEO involvement in managing Supply Chain4 % of respondents

Sets strategic direction for business including SC strategy, lets other execute

Actively develop SC strategy with ops team, and let them execute

Actively develop SC strategy with ops team, and work with them to ensure execution 21

18

34

21

10

12

37

38

Today Over next 5 years

Sources: 1: Supply Chain Talent of the Future, Deloitte, 2015 / 2: Supply Chain impact survey, Cap Gemini, 2013 3: Future of Supply Chain, SCM World, 2015

#9 MISALIGNMENT OF SKILL MARKET AND BUSINESS NEEDS IS IMPACTING ORGANIZATION DESIGN

KEY TOPIC?

SKILLS ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING? Looking at all the functions and positions involved in a Supply Chain, the Human Resource Management is inevitably a complex puzzle. Ignored for a while by management education world, the needs for logistics competencies is not fully matched today. A situation fed by the changing environment and the new challenges appearing regularly for SC people.

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Resources of Supply Chain form a combination of several different natures of competencies

And talent acquisition is a challenging exercise

9.1 Know-hows and soft skills are both part of the package needed by leaders driving Supply Chains (for middle Management to operational levels)

65

74

54

68

64

43

43

47

47

51

Top 5 management skills for SC resources1 % of respondents

Excellent / Very good Become more important

Ability to negotiate and collaborate with value chain partners

Ability to collaborate across functions

Ability to drive or support diversity and inclusion

Strategic thinking and problem solving

Ability to manage global / virtual teams 67

58

58

59

62

46

49

50

51

58

Top 5 technical skills for SC resources1 % of respondents

Excellent / Very good Become more important

Compliance / regulatory expertise

Sourcing and procurement practices

Planning and scheduling practices

Logistics and distribution practices

Analytics

18% Of SC Managers “agree strongly that their company has the ability to attract and retain the right talents for Supply Chain Management”2

9.2 Facing difficulties to identify and keep Supply Chain talents, organizations adapt their fishing approach

9.3 An adaptation quickly needed as job creations are increasing in Supply Chain field for most of the markets worldwide

46%

47%

47%

48%

49%

49%

49%

49%

53% Non tradit. recruitment methods

Talent acquisition tendencies over 5 next years1 % of respondents

New career paths

Informal development programs

Collaboration oriented metrics

Workforce analytics

Virtual workplace practices

Non traditional talent pools

Increasing diversity

Formal development programs

Formal development programs

80

69

90

81

65 US

Supply Chain job creation balance3 % of respondents per country

China

India

Brazil

Singapore

Job removal Job creation

20

31

10

19

35