10 05 27 transmission automation trends
TRANSCRIPT
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Webinar:Transmissionautomationtrendsintheglobal
commercial
vehicles
industry
Chairperson:
DrPeterWells,Director,
CentreforAutomotiveIndustryResearch,
CardiffBusiness
School
Speakers:DetlefSchmidtWABCO
RodrigoMeirellesEaton
SandeepKar
Frost
&
Sullivan
Sponsoredby:
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Transmission Automation Trends in theGlobal Commercial Vehicles Industry
Detlef Schmidt
WABCO BU DLC Marketing Leader
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May 27, 2010
Automotive
World Webinar
ABOUT WABCO
3
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May 27, 2010
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CONTENT
Global transmission market overview
Industry issues determining future trends
Usage in trucks and buses
WABCO's path of transmission automation
system (AMT) development AMT for emerging markets
Summary
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INDUSTRYISSUES
Regulation
Technology
Supplychain
FleetsOwner/op
Increasing emission standards requiring higher focus on fuel efficiency
Government incentives in certain regions to push new technologies
Transmission and driveline developments seen economically most
effective in providing FUEL ECONOMY improvements
Truck manufacturers in emerging markets requiring short-term technical
solutions at lowest invest
Focus on vehicle efficiency, total cost of ownership, limited invest
Fuel being the most relevant driver of total cost of ownership
and the winner is
Increasing vehicle efficiency is on everyones agenda
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DRIVERS OF FUEL EFFICIENCY
Fuel price is the highest in India and China compared to purchasingpower, representing up to 50% of the operating cost structure. Fuelsavings will have the highest impact on the whole value chain.
Despite the lowest fuel price over purchasing power, fuel efficiencyin the US is driven by government incentives and overall economicclimate. In fact, fuel costs still account for 20% - 30% of totaloperating costs.
Different drivers for fuel efficiency worldwide
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AMTIN TRUCKS & BUSES
Transmission automation provides benefits across all applications
LONG-HAUL Truck/Trailer combinations
DISTRIBUTION and CITY Trucks
COACHES and CITY Buses
incl. Hybrid applications
CONSTRUCTION and DUMP Truckswith specific off-road functionality
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TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION
SYSTEMSPNEUMATIC TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION
Modular System
Components are mounted to the transmission
according to their function and replace manualactuators on standard manual transmissions
Integrated System
All system components are integrated in one unit
directly built into the transmission structure
ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION
Electro-Hydraulic System
Central power supply by electro-motorically driven
hydraulic pump and accumulator
Hydraulic gear and clutch actuation
Electro-Motoric System
Separate electro-motors for actuation of gears and clutch
Customer and market requirements determining optimal solution
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Extension to MD
Expansion to new markets
Increasing integration
10
LEADING EXPERIENCE IN
TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION
1985 1988
20001995
2003
First transmission
automation for
trucks
1st transmission
automation
system withintegrated
valves and
actuators
2002
2004
Next system
generation
First hydraulic transmission
automation for medium duty
application
Fully integrated
system with shift
forks
First fully
integrated
transmission
automation
Modular system
with integrated
ECU
2009
20+ years of innovation and experience
1996
Improved
system structure
with optimized
components
First series
introduction of
AMT in China
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May 27, 2010
Automotive
World Webinar11Modularity and standardization is key to increasing penetration
WAY TO WABCOOptiDriveTM
Most cost efficient solution for emerging markets High level of standard components with synergies for different applications
Simple adaptation to existing transmission platforms Short time to market
Min. space requirements at the transmission System integration in existing vehicle environment
Various applications to be covered Modularity from 5 to 16 speed
Add-On AMT system for manual transmission
Complete system development for OE customers
Market / Customer Needs
NOT equipped with AMT Equipped with AMT
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SUMMARY
Market requirements focusing on reduction of total
cost of ownership, specifically fuel efficiency
Driveline and transmission technology is seen mosteffective in achieving short-term fuel efficiency
Transmission automation systems (AMT) combine
benefits of both manuals efficiency andautomatics electronic control
Increasing penetration of transmission automation
systems in emerging markets will be key to
significantly contribute to global emission reduction
Increasing focus on fuel efficiency globally is expected to push AMT penetration
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PASSION
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Webinar:Transmissionautomationtrendsintheglobalcommercialvehiclesindustry
Thenextpresentationisfrom:RodrigoMeirelles
Director,GlobalProductPlanning
CommercialVehicles
EatonCorporation
Sponsoredby:
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2010 Eaton Corporation. All rights reserved.
This is a photographic template your
photograph should fit precisely within this rectangle.
Transmission Automation Trends in theGlobal Commercial Vehicles Industry
Rodrigo MeirellesDirector, Global Product Planning
Commercial Vehicle Transmissions
Eaton Corporation
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Agenda
Transmission technologies
Automation drivers
Regional acceptance
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The Mature Transmission TechnologiesCMTConstant-Mesh Transmissions
De-facto NAFTA HD standard (70%)
Eaton is market leader
Replaced in W.E. by SMT in 1990s,
same happening in China now
Robust & reliable, but requires
trained drivers
SMTSynchronized Manual Transmissions
Global MD & HD reference
Eaton, ZF & VI OEMs
Key growth platform for emerging
markets (China & India)
Robust & simpler to drive, but not
all synchronizers are reliable
AMTAutomated Mechanical Transmission
De-facto W.E. HD standard (67%)
Driven by VI OEMs (Volvo & Daimler)
Up to now limited to on-highway
applications
UltraShift PLUSdesigned for on/off-road
Easy to drive and efficient
TCA Torque Converter Automatic
NAFTA MD Standard (70%)
Allison is market leader
Bus, Specialty & Off-Road
Good drivability, but poor fuel
efficiencyAutomated
Manu
al
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Automation Drivers
Why people buy AMTs...
Safety
Ease of use
Powertrain and drivetrain
protection
Why they dont...
Acquisition price
Unproven fuel economy
Uptime and service
Fear of the unknown
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1919
W Europe: AMTs De-facto Standard for HD Similar design used by all OEMs
2 x 3 x 2 transmission
Pneumatic actuation Organic clutch
AMT solved technical hurdles to SMT
integration
Boosted clutch linkage
Remote shift controls
VI OEMs competing for vehicle share
Future AMT adoption increase expected in MD
AMTs sell at little or no premium
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2020
NAFTA: Mixed Adoption Rates TCA current standard for MD, bus & coach, some HD
vocational: Limited by:
Fuel economy, cooling requirements, vehicle controllability
HD AMT adoption currently limited by:
Driver culture (but its changing as skilled driver pool shrinks)
Acquisition price (Fuller 10-speed & NA vehicle architecture)
On-highway vocation focus created limited 2nd user
acceptance
New US government fuel economy goals may drive
more AMTs
UltraShift PLUSfamily covers most On-Highway and
Off-Road specialty vocations
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Emerging Markets: New Frontier for AMT,
but How Distant? Total cost of ownership & lack of skilled drivers keys to
AMT adoption
Acquisition price / service capability main barriers inChina, India, Russia
Premium & public segments will lead
Brazil likely to follow European OEM model for similarvocations
New transmission suppliers will struggle with
technology
Key is in system logic, not hardware
Adoption rate is low, but all OEMs are eager to learn
and develop AMT capabilities
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2222
UltraShiftPLUSBest-in-class Automated Transmission System
Family of highly capable automated transmissions for On & Off-
Road applications
Modular construction based on proven twin countershaft
architecture
Competitive alternative to Torque Converter Automatics
Higher efficiency
Lower cooling requirements Superior controllability
Family of highly capable automated transmissions for On & Off-
Road applications
Modular construction based on proven twin countershaft
architecture
Competitive alternative to Torque Converter Automatics
Higher efficiency
Lower cooling requirements Superior controllability
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Webinar:Transmissionautomationtrendsintheglobalcommercialvehiclesindustry
Thenextpresentationisfrom:Sandeep
Kar
GlobalManager
CommercialVehicleResearch
Frost&Sullivan
Sponsoredby:
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Global Commercial Vehicle Powertrain Systems Market
Clear Signs of Growth in Demand for Automated and Automatic Transmissions
Sandeep Kar- Global Manager- Commercial Vehicle Research
May, 2010
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Global Commercial Truck Production: Polarization of Truck ClassesImplies Growth in LCV and HCV Segments
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Case in Point: Chinese and Indian CV Markets Show Strong PolarizationTrends
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In Europe the LCV Segment is Expected to Experience a CAGR of 2.4Percent (2008-2013)
LCVs Powered by Diesel Engines
(55% Penetration Forecast for 2015-2020) and
Featuring Stepped MTs will
Prevail..DCT, ATs will
Gain Penetration
LCVs Powered by Diesel Engines
(55% Penetration Forecast for 2015-2020) and
Featuring Stepped MTs will
Prevail..DCT, ATs will
Gain Penetration
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Demand Analysis: Trucks by Transmission Type (North America),
Trucks in Operation by Class Type (2009)
New Truck Sales by Transmission Type (2009) New Truck Sales Forecasts (2005 2015)
Demand for automatic and automated transmissions for Class
6-8 trucks is forecast to increase until 2015 because they are
easier to operate and are more fuel efficient
In 2015, automatics/automated will represent almost 35% of
new truck sales, rising from 22% in 2008.
In 2008, Class 8 production trucks had the highestconcentration of automated manual transmissions (11%).
Both are more costly than manuals to maintain (require more
fluid), repair, reman/rebuild (much more complex).
Automatics cost 20 to 30% more than manuals. Comparatively,
automated manuals are cheaper and cost 10-15% more than
manuals.
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Future Intentions of Automatic/Automated TransmissionsTechnologies Among Fleet Managers in U.S.
87% are familiar withAutomatic
Transmission.
64% are familiar with
AutomatedTransmission.
Q: How likely are you to consider automatic/automated transmissions over manual transmissions
in future new truck purchases?
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Rising Awareness and
Demand for Automatic and
Automated Transmissions
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Fuel Efficiency Enhancement of Trucks Through A Combination ofModifications and Regulatory Support
Source: Frost & Sullivan
2007 2015
Hybrid
Powertrain
ElectronicControls andModulation
Class 6-8 Truck Fuel Efficiency Enhancement
Automated/Automatic
Transmission
AdvancedTurbocharger
SmallerEngine,Camless
Engine
Powertrain Systems Modifications for Hybrid Trucks
AuxiliaryPower Unit
AdvancedThermal
Management
Lightweight Structural andBody Materials
Air- Disc Brakes,Regenerative Braking
Lighter Fuel Tank
Vehicle GeometryAerodynamic Modifications
Fuel Injection,Valve ActuationImprovements
Low Resistance Tires
Reduced EngineFriction Reduced Trailer Gap
HigherLoads
LesserCongestion
OptimumSpeed
Other Design Modifications
Regulatory Support
Low- viscosity Lubricants
Hybrid
Powertrain
ElectronicControls andModulation
Truck Fuel Efficiency Enhancement
Automated/Automatic
Transmission
AdvancedTurbocharger
SmallerEngine,Camless
Engine
Powertrain Systems Modifications for Hybrid Trucks
AuxiliaryPower Unit
AdvancedThermal
Management
Lightweight Structural andBody Materials
Air- Disc Brakes,Regenerative Braking
Lighter Fuel Tank
Vehicle GeometryAerodynamic Modifications
Fuel Injection,Valve ActuationImprovements
Low Resistance Tires
Reduced EngineFriction Reduced Trailer Gap
HigherLoads
LesserCongestion
OptimumSpeed
Other Design Modifications
Regulatory Support
Low- viscosity Lubricants
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Hybrid Commercial Vehicle Market= Smart Business At Play
North American and European Hybrid Commercial Vehicles Market:Production Forecast (North America & Europe), 2006 - 2016
CAGR 90.9 %
CAGR 99.6 %
North American and European Hybrid Commercial VehiclesMarket: Market Attractiveness of Commercial Hybrid Systems(North America & Europe), 2009-2016
Market attractiveness forhybrid vehicles is highest
in the MCV, HCV and Bussegments
Least Pressure on ExistingInfrastructure Will Continue DrawingGovernments, Truckmakers andCustomers Towards Hybrid CVs inEU and NA in New Decade
Class 6-8 Hybrid Truck Production: Hybrid Trucks to Set to Account for 8
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Class 6 8 Hybrid Truck Production: Hybrid Trucks to Set to Account for 8Percent of Total Truck Production by 2015, New revenue Streams forAutomated/Automatic Transmission Suppliers
Volvo/Mack11%
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Questions?
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WebinarQ&A:Transmissionautomationtrendsintheglobalcommercialvehiclesindustry
Q&Achairedby:DrPeterWells,Director,
CentreforAutomotiveIndustryResearch,
CardiffBusiness
School
Speakers:DetlefSchmidtWABCO
RodrigoMeirellesEaton
SandeepKar
Frost
&
Sullivan
Sponsoredby: