11

Using GAP data to Using GAP data to design design

and inform field and inform field researchresearch

James B. GrandJames B. Grand11, Amy L. Silvano, Amy L. Silvano22, Mark , Mark D. MacKenzieD. MacKenzie22, and Edward F. , and Edward F.

LowensteinLowenstein22

11USGS, Alabama Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research USGS, Alabama Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, Auburn University, AlabamaUnit, Auburn University, Alabama

22 Alabama Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, Alabama Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, School of Forestry & Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, School of Forestry & Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University,

AlabamaAlabama33School of Forestry & Wildlife Sciences, School of Forestry & Wildlife Sciences,

Auburn University, Alabama Auburn University, Alabama

22

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAcknowledgements FundingFunding

Alabama Department on Conservation and Alabama Department on Conservation and Natural Resources, Wildlife & Freshwater Natural Resources, Wildlife & Freshwater Fisheries DivisionFisheries Division

State Wildlife Grants, USFWS Federal AidState Wildlife Grants, USFWS Federal Aid GIS dataGIS data

33

Presentation outlinePresentation outlinePresentation outlinePresentation outline Reason for large-scale research & Reason for large-scale research &

monitoringmonitoring Pitfalls & considerations for large-scale Pitfalls & considerations for large-scale

surveyssurveys Using GAP data to improve study designUsing GAP data to improve study design Example: Example:

IInventory & nventory & CConservation onservation PPlanning in lanning in AlabamaAlabama

44

Why inventory & monitor?Why inventory & monitor?Why inventory & monitor?Why inventory & monitor? ScienceScience

Understand ecology of systemsUnderstand ecology of systems Detect changes in species distribution and Detect changes in species distribution and

abundanceabundance Management/ConservationManagement/Conservation

Make informed decisionsMake informed decisions Learn from actionsLearn from actions Adaptive managementAdaptive management

55

State Comprehensive Conservation StrategiesState Comprehensive Conservation StrategiesState Comprehensive Conservation StrategiesState Comprehensive Conservation Strategies

1.1. Distribution and abundance Distribution and abundance of speciesof species

2.2. Locations and condition of Locations and condition of key habitatskey habitats

3.3. Problems which may Problems which may adversely affect species adversely affect species

4.4. Conservation actions Conservation actions proposedproposed

5.5. Plans for monitoring and Plans for monitoring and adopting conservation adopting conservation actionsactions

6.6. Review procedures Review procedures 7.7. Plans for coordinating Plans for coordinating

development, development, implementation, review, implementation, review, and revisionand revision

8.8. Public participation in Public participation in developing and developing and implementing CWCSimplementing CWCS

Plans for monitoring and Plans for monitoring and adopting conservation adopting conservation actionsactions

66

Alabama Alabama Species of Greatest Conservation NeedSpecies of Greatest Conservation NeedAlabama Alabama Species of Greatest Conservation NeedSpecies of Greatest Conservation Need

0 20 40 60 80 100

Clams, Mussels

Fish

Reptiles, Amphibians

Snails

Mammals

Birds

Crustaceans

Insects

TES GCN

303 Species of

Greatest Conservation Need

77

ConsiderationsConsiderationsConsiderationsConsiderations What hypotheses are to be addressed?What hypotheses are to be addressed?

Specific questions regarding abundance or Specific questions regarding abundance or distributiondistribution

What are the management objectives?What are the management objectives? Maintenance, enhancement, or control of populationsMaintenance, enhancement, or control of populations

Geographic and temporal scaleGeographic and temporal scale State, regional, or subregionalState, regional, or subregional How long to complete?How long to complete? How frequently repeated?How frequently repeated?

Effort ($) available for monitoringEffort ($) available for monitoring Quality Quality AbundanceAbundance DistributionDistribution Species richnessSpecies richness

Highest

Lowest

88

Basics of inventory designBasics of inventory designBasics of inventory designBasics of inventory designPollock, K. H., J. D. Nichols, T. R. Simons, G. L. Farnsworth, L. L., Bailey, Pollock, K. H., J. D. Nichols, T. R. Simons, G. L. Farnsworth, L. L., Bailey,

and J. R. Sauer. 2002. Large scale wildlife monitoring studies: and J. R. Sauer. 2002. Large scale wildlife monitoring studies: Statistical methods for design and analysis. Environmetrics 13:105-Statistical methods for design and analysis. Environmetrics 13:105-119. 119.

Pitfalls of large scale inventory and Pitfalls of large scale inventory and monitoringmonitoring

Failures:Failures: Ignoring heterogeneity in encounter rates for Ignoring heterogeneity in encounter rates for

animalsanimals DensityDensity DetectionDetection

Results indefensible with very poor precisionResults indefensible with very poor precision Properly designed monitoring programs:Properly designed monitoring programs:

Incorporate heterogeneity in encountersIncorporate heterogeneity in encounters Produce defensible results Produce defensible results

Robust Sampling Schemeincorporating Detectability

99

Ecological theory – generallyEcological theory – generallyEcological theory – generallyEcological theory – generally Animals select habitats to optimize fitnessAnimals select habitats to optimize fitness Quality differs among habitatsQuality differs among habitats Abundance & distribution reflect qualityAbundance & distribution reflect quality Abundance & distribution differ among Abundance & distribution differ among

habitatshabitats

Sink

Source

Sink

Source

Sink

1010

Biological hypothesesBiological hypothesesBiological hypothesesBiological hypotheses Differ among taxa in relation to resource Differ among taxa in relation to resource

requirements and community interactionsrequirements and community interactions Food availabilityFood availability Structural habitat requirementsStructural habitat requirements CompetitionCompetition Predator-prey relationshipsPredator-prey relationships Other influencesOther influences

Species specific Species specific EssentialEssential to deductive methods to deductive methods

1111

Sampling theorySampling theorySampling theorySampling theory Animal density differs in relation to many factorsAnimal density differs in relation to many factors Greatest variation is among “habitat types”Greatest variation is among “habitat types”

Vegetative coverVegetative cover Physical structurePhysical structure LocationLocation

Heterogeneity in density leads to biasHeterogeneity in density leads to bias Stratify by habitat or densityStratify by habitat or density Detection of animals is Detection of animals is imperfectimperfect

Estimate dectabilityEstimate dectability Can obtain a representative sampleCan obtain a representative sample

SystematicSystematic RandomRandom

1212

IInventory & nventory & CConservation onservation

PPlanninglanning

IInventory & nventory & CConservation onservation

PPlanninglanning Science-based plan for the conservation of Science-based plan for the conservation of

GCN species and the habitats they depend GCN species and the habitats they depend onon

Protocol and a baseline for monitoring Protocol and a baseline for monitoring GCN speciesGCN species

Understand the issues affecting Understand the issues affecting conservationconservation

Provide management recommendations Provide management recommendations Foster relationships among public and Foster relationships among public and

private stakeholdersprivate stakeholders

Adaptive Resource

Management

1313

ObjectivesObjectivesObjectivesObjectives Assess information on current and Assess information on current and

potential distribution and abundance of potential distribution and abundance of GCN species on ADCNR managed lands;GCN species on ADCNR managed lands;

Develop recommended methods for Develop recommended methods for inventoriesinventories

Develop a matrix of preferred Develop a matrix of preferred management practices;management practices;

Conduct high priority research and Conduct high priority research and inventory projects;inventory projects;

1414

ObjectivesObjectivesObjectivesObjectives Predictive models of distribution and Predictive models of distribution and

abundance;abundance; Basis for decision support toolsBasis for decision support tools

Prepare management & conservation Prepare management & conservation recommendations;recommendations;

Outreach regarding conservation and Outreach regarding conservation and management for GCN speciesmanagement for GCN species

1515

ICPICP for Alabama DCNR lands for Alabama DCNR landsICPICP for Alabama DCNR lands for Alabama DCNR lands

Forever Wild

Wildlife & Freshwater Fish

Lands

Parks

Used GAP stewardship to Used GAP stewardship to select 13 survey areasselect 13 survey areas

50 watersheds50 watersheds 55,600 ha55,600 ha

1616

ConsiderationsConsiderationsConsiderationsConsiderations

Hypotheses to be addressed – species Hypotheses to be addressed – species specificspecific Determining habitat relationships/requirementsDetermining habitat relationships/requirements Response to management practicesResponse to management practices

Management questionsManagement questions Which GCN populations occur/can be Which GCN populations occur/can be

maintained on ADCNR lands?maintained on ADCNR lands? Spatial & temporal scaleSpatial & temporal scale

Selected DCNR landsSelected DCNR lands Tri-annual completion scheduleTri-annual completion schedule

EffortEffort Estimating distribution & abundanceEstimating distribution & abundance

1717

Approach – survey designApproach – survey designApproach – survey designApproach – survey design StratificationStratification

Account for large differences in heterogeneityAccount for large differences in heterogeneity Ensure that samples were well-distributedEnsure that samples were well-distributed

Random selection of sitesRandom selection of sites Ensure that samples were representativeEnsure that samples were representative

CovariatesCovariates Modeling heterogeneity at finer scalesModeling heterogeneity at finer scales Based on Based on a prioria priori models models

Literature & hypothesized relationshipsLiterature & hypothesized relationships

1818

StratificationStratificationStratificationStratification Landform Landform

(slope & slope (slope & slope position)position)

Solar exposureSolar exposure(soil moisture)(soil moisture)

GeologyGeology(soil (soil texture/chemistry)texture/chemistry)

Land use/land coverLand use/land cover

Gap Ecological Systems 2001

1919

Selection of survey sitesSelection of survey sitesSelection of survey sitesSelection of survey sites

2020

Analysis methodsAnalysis methodsAnalysis methodsAnalysis methods Empirically model habitat relationshipsEmpirically model habitat relationships

Landscape levelLandscape level Site & survey specificSite & survey specific

Empirically model detection ratesEmpirically model detection rates Site & survey specificSite & survey specific

Based on Based on a priori a priori hypotheseshypotheses Species specificSpecies specific Habitat specificHabitat specific Survey specificSurvey specific

2121

Analysis methodsAnalysis methodsAnalysis methodsAnalysis methods Patch occupancy analysisPatch occupancy analysis

Spatial models of probable use [proportion Spatial models of probable use [proportion used]used]

Incorporates estimates of detectabilityIncorporates estimates of detectability Over time – change detection:Over time – change detection:

Colonization & local extinction ratesColonization & local extinction rates Relate to management actions via land coverRelate to management actions via land cover

Repeated countsRepeated counts Spatial models of animal abundance [density]Spatial models of animal abundance [density] Incorporates estimates of detectability Incorporates estimates of detectability Over time – change in abundanceOver time – change in abundance

2222

Landscape level GIS dataLandscape level GIS dataLandscape level GIS dataLandscape level GIS data

NLCDSystems

ForestedEarly successional

Roads & buffersStreams & buffers

Landform

2323

Site & survey specific Site & survey specific covariatescovariatesSite & survey specific Site & survey specific covariatescovariates Vegetative structureVegetative structure Time – date & TODTime – date & TOD Vegetative Vegetative

compositioncomposition Duff layerDuff layer MoistureMoisture TemperatureTemperature

Stream bed strataStream bed strata EmbeddednessEmbeddedness Dissolved oxygenDissolved oxygen GradientGradient Soil textureSoil texture Canopy closureCanopy closure

2424

Using GAP Predicted Using GAP Predicted distributions distributions Using GAP Predicted Using GAP Predicted distributions distributions Literature-based & expert opinionLiterature-based & expert opinion Known to over-predictKnown to over-predict HypothesisHypothesis::

Percent of suitable habitat Percent of suitable habitat probability of encounterprobability of encounter

Bayesian prior expectationBayesian prior expectation Encounter probability Encounter probability prior probabilityprior probability x likelihood of x likelihood of

the data the data

Gopher tortoise

Eastern king snake Worm-eating warbler

2525

Using predicted distributionsUsing predicted distributionsUsing predicted distributionsUsing predicted distributions

  Study Area

SpeciesStimpso

n

Monte

SanoLauderdale

-ColbertGuntersvil

leColdwate

rSipse

y

Oak Mountai

n

Cerulean warbler 0.20

0.24

0.19 0.29 0.000.00

0.05

Kentucky warbler 0.65

0.70

0.66 0.56 0.270.96

0.19

Red-cockaded woodpecker

0.000.00

0.00 0.00 0.010.00

0.03

Swainson's warbler 0.00

0.13

0.42 0.41 0.200.92

0.16

Wood thrush 0.85

0.97

0.66 0.89 0.960.96

0.85

American woodcock 0.12

0.03

0.25 0.15 0.060.12

0.08

Least bittern 0.00

0.00

0.00 0.01 0.000.03

0.03

American kestrel 0.10

0.03

0.18 0.07 0.020.01

0.07

Predicted

Occupancy

eachsample

site?

2626

Using GAP data to inform field researchUsing GAP data to inform field researchUsing GAP data to inform field researchUsing GAP data to inform field research

StewardshipStewardship Identification and delineation of study sitesIdentification and delineation of study sites

Land use land coverLand use land cover StratificationStratification Selection of sampling sitesSelection of sampling sites Landscape characteristicsLandscape characteristics

Incorporation of uncertaintyIncorporation of uncertainty

Animal distributionsAnimal distributions Determination of survey methodsDetermination of survey methods Prior expectation of encountersPrior expectation of encounters