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Tourism Supply

Political Economy of Tourism

Economic Tectonics: Have’s and Have Not’s

Product Clusters Husbandry:

Power, Resources & Regulations

Connectivity to the World

Speed of change

Competition for Labour

Sustainable Structures & Expectations

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Economic Tectonics:Have’s and Have Not’s

Average Annual GDP Growth Real GDP 2005 US $China 5.6 46265USA 2.1 38646India 5.9 15384Japan 1.1 6216Brazil 4.1 6020Mexico 4.3 5709United Kingdom 2.1 4997Germany 1.4 4535France 2.1 4528Russia 3.3 4297Turkey 4.4 3536Canada 2.6 3154Indonesia 4.8 2975Korea 2.5 2818Italy 1.3 2580Saudi Arabia 4.8 2419Australia 2.9 2257South Africa 4.3 1919Argentina 4.1 1267

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Economic Tectonics:Have’s and Have Not’s

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WACC by Sector (Sept 2009)PWC Cost of Capital Report

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Financial Yield vs Investor Yield. Economic Sustainability Benchmarks for NZ Hospitality Divisions 1999-2003

Tourism & Leisure WACC

Base Lending Rate

Mortgage Rate

Risk Free Rate

Tourism in New Zealand has a number of hurdles for the future – one of which is that its economic performance is scarcely at investment grade level (click here for further documents)

(PWC, 2010)

(Moriarty, 2008)

Moriarty (2008)

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Husbandry: Power, Resources & Regulations The End of 100% Pure

New Zealand is promoted overseas as 100% Pure – a clean, green, environmentally conscious place. But with 90 percent of our lowland rivers said to be too polluted to swim in, is our image based on a fib?

But as Paul Roberts (2005) writes: peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells.

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Husbandry: Power, Resources & Regulations

“Gradually raising the cost of carbon, which Congress but not the EPA can do, would send signals throughout the economy that would help shift the nation to fuels and practices that wouldn't warm the planet. Research into such fuels and practices would become attractive to investors, and new technologies would emerge. Efficiency would become cost-effective. The government would set the goal, but the market, science and common sense would dictate how the country reached it.” (Washington Post 2009)

Government power does not extend beyond goal setting!

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Sustainable Structures and Expectations

China is building hotels using the principles of sustainability. click here to find out more

Is the future only a green consumer?

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Connectivity to the World

Maybe the future is hypersonic travel: New Zealand to London in 2 hours! Watch this NASA idea on youtube here.

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Aviation Technology: Future Efficiency

Historical 15% p.a. 50% acceleration 50% Deceleration

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Speed of Change

OECD (2006) Broadband average monthly subscription price, Oct. 2008, USD PPP

Listen to Lee Crocket talk about today’s consumers, exponential change and mobile technologies in the tourism industry (here)

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Product Clusters

Listen to Chris Anderson discuss the Long Tail here

Dr Ian Yeoman talks about the potential for Knitting Holidays and niche markets here

Looking at product clusters and visitor distribution in New Zealand both international and domestic overnight visitor patterns are highly stratified and reflect efficiency of purpose. International visitors don’t stay long – a median of 10 days; focus on key themes (cultural, adventure & landscapes) and maintain an efficient itinerary. This approach is necessary given the distances and time involved. At one extreme, there is the itinerant backpacker that stays for months, visits every region and engages with all manner of adventuresome products. For further information, click here

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Competition for Labour

Labour Dynamics (2009)

For the tourism industry, two issues arise: product quality is associated with people quality, but people quality is a function of aptitude, training and longevity in the industry (Business and Economic Research 2004)

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The Political Economy of Tourism

“Central government received $613 million more in revenue than it would have had tourism not exist in the economy. On the other hand, it expended $184 million in the various activities it supports relating to the tourism industry. This provides a Net Financial Benefit to central government from tourism of $429 million”. (Cullen et al 2007)