1 the travel demand effects induced by a new transport system: the torino metro torino, 17 aprile...
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The travel demand effects induced by a new transport system:the Torino metro
Torino, 17 Aprile 2008
Prof. Cristina PronelloTeam: Cristina Pronello, Paolo Villata, Valentina Rappazzo, Silvana Rodriguez
Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO
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OBJECTIVES
Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO
Evaluation of the effects of the Metro Line 1 on the urban mobility
METHODOLOGY1. Analysis of the literature and of the studes carried
out for other transport systems
2. Design and administration of the sample surveys to the metro and surface transit users
4. Description and analysis of the data
5. Conclusions
3. Design and administration of the surveys through travel diaries and focus group
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The evaluation of the impact of a new system
Literature the main factors taken into account to quantify the effects of a new line are:
the InducedTraffic The Modal Diversion
Trips generated by the new infrastructure,but also from:• population growth• urban development• income increase
Modal shift, keeping constant:• trip typology• origin• destination
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AthensGolias, 2002
Surveys to metro and transit users + car users (4200 units)Previous mode:Bus 53% Train 3% Private mode (car, moto, taxi) 24% Bus/car 5% Bus/train 7% Train/car 2% Foot 3%Induced travels 2%
CopenhagenVuk, 2005
2 new metro lines integrating the existing oneModal diversion from car: 16%
Traffic measurements and telephone interviews (1111 units before and 1056 after new line opening + 862 in both periods)
2 new metro lines (automatic metro)Modal diversion from car : 14%
Recent studies carried out on new metro systems
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Surveys design
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1. Definition of the investigation areas and of the scopes
Line 1 (Fermi - XVIII Dicembre)
Extraction of a representative sample of the metro users
Porta Nuova FS (Surface transit stops)
Extraction of a representative sample of the surface transit users in a major interchange node
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Surveys design
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2. Questionnaire design
• Questions concerning the trips (O/D, habit, intermodality, trip already done before Line 1 opening)
• Questions proposing an “evaluation scale” about the quality of services and the factors influencing the users’ choice for the metro
• Socio-economical questions
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3. Definition of the sample numerousness
Sampling for variables:
• Infinite population• Interval of confidence: 95%• Absolute precision: 5% metro and 7% surface
transit
In case of non normal populations not having exceptional values for n > 100 we can assume good estimations
Surveys design
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Selection of the stratified sample: - sex, - occupation (students, workers, retired) - area of residence (Torino, 1° and 2° suburb, N, S, E, O)
Survey design: the travel diary
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DESIGNDESIGN
definition of the outline selection of the participants
CARRYING OUTCARRYING OUT
Survey design: the focus group
4 women and 4 men, from 25 to 55 yearsAll workers with level of education middle-highLiving in different neighbourhoods:
2 live in 1° west suburb5 use transit from home to work3 use exclusively the car
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Carrying out of the surveys
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The sampling plan gave:
402 interviewed 200 interviewed
Metro sample n=384 units
Surface transit sample
n=196 units
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ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: usual trip (at least weekly frequency)
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Metro (Line 1) is characterised by a greater number of usual trips
Metropolitana
27%
73%
AbitualeNon abituale
Superficie
41% 59%
AbitualeNon abituale
Metro Surface transit
UsualNon usual
UsualNon usual
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The 15-16% of the metro users utilized the car (2/3 usual)
Campione Metro
4%
79%
0.4%13%
1%
1%
2%
Mezzo pubblicoTrenoTaxiAuto (guidatore)Auto (passeggero)
Campione Superficie
3%13%
0.4%
80%
3%
ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: modal diversion
Metro sample
Surface transit sample
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Bigger O/D:
• Collegno• Aeronautica• Torino centre
ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: use area
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Mainly along the corridor of the Line 1
A component along the north-south axis is evident
ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: revealed trips
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V inzaglioRe Um berto
Porta NuovaM arconi
NizzaDante
Carducc i - M olinetteSpez ia
Lingotto
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160P rima indag ine
Abituale Non abituale
ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: future use
M arconiNizza
DanteCarducc i
Spez iaLingotto
020
4060
80
S econda indag ine
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The interviewed were asked to express a judgment concerning the service quality, according to the scale:
The statistical indipendence tests (χ2 of Pearson) have showed the independence of the evaluations from the socio-economical variables.
Metro: about 80% of responses are “molto (much)” or “moltissimo (very much)”
Surface transit: about 76% of responsed are “poco (little)” or “abbastanza (enough)”
ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: the quality of the service
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Per nulla Pochissimo Poco Abbastanza Molto Moltissimo
Difficoltà di parcheggio 39,5 4,7 3,2 12,8 15,3 24,5Costo di parcheggio 43,9 4,5 4,8 12,5 18,3 16,0Durata del viaggio 4,0 6,5 6,5 15,5 41,5 26,0Frequenza dei treni 5,8 14,4 11,6 27,7 30,2 10,3Posti a sedere 3,3 4,3 3,8 18,4 45,5 24,7Sicurezza
12,8 12,1 13,3 24,4 29,9 7,5Link altre linee 10,4 8,6 10,9 27,5 35,1 7,6Facilità accesso 3,3 5,6 10,9 28,6 41,0 10,6Non ha patente 75,9 1,8 1,0 3,5 8,5 9,3Non ha automobile 61,5 2,7 2,0 5,7 14,3 13,8Comfort 7,3 7,8 9,0 32,9 34,9 8,0Pulizia 4,1 6,8 5,8 28,4 42,5 12,4
Valutazione dell'importanza del fattore (%) • the examined factors are very influent, indipendently from the socio-economical varibales(χ2 di Pearson)
• the parameters related to the car depend on the income, education and O/D characteristics as the parking fares
ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: determinant factors for the metro modal choice
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RESULTSRESULTS introduction of the metro: reactions considerations on the transport means future metropolitan link factor for the location choice trip cost: distorted(twisted) perception analysis of the WTP for an efficient transit
THE FOCUS GROUP: the results
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Modal DiversionThe percentage of users diverted from car to metro (Line 1) ranges from 15% to 16% of the interviewed passengers and is in line with other literature examples.
The users are mainly concentrated along the metro corridor, realative to the axes of corso Francia and corso Vittorio Emanuele II.
Use area
CONCLUSIONS: metro and surface transit surveys
The customer satisfaction for the metro service is considerably greater than the surface transit one.
Quality of service
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CONCLUSIONS: travel diaries
the 33% of the residents in the west area uses the metro for the most frequent trip
the 29,6% of car users would use the metro rather than the car, if a useful link would exist
the 47,1% highlights the quicknessquickness as a priority aspect
the 45,3% of the interviewed say that the metro is the desired mean, but impossible to use
the 37,7% would choice to live close to the metro to save time for their trips
The metro quality of service is considered the same as that of the car
Need of a network effect and integration to make the surface transit more competitive in respect to the car
and a real alternative to it