1 the it workforce ed lazowska it & public policy autumn 2004

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The IT Workforce

Ed LazowskaIT & Public PolicyAutumn 2004

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

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Topics

Characterizing the IT workforceSize of the IT workforceRecent trends in IT workforce sizeLonger-term trends in IT workforce sizeEducation for IT jobsPositioning of Washington StatePositioning of the US as a wholeH-1B’s, worldwide sourcingA few miscellaneous thoughts

Freeman & Aspray, The Supply of Information Technology Workers in the United States, Computing Research Association, 1999

Computer Systems Policy Project, Choose to Compete, 2004

5

Professional Level IT Workers Hold a Wide Array of Science, Engineering and Other Degrees

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Professional Level ITWorkers

IT Degrees, including:Computer & information sciences, generalComputer scienceComputer systems analysisInformation services and systemsOther computer and information sciencesComputer and systems engineeringComputer programming

Engineeringother than Computer and Systems Engineering

Natural Sciences

Mathematics

Social Sciences

Business

Other

Of professional level IT workers

who hold bachelor's or higher level

degrees,87.5%

hold degrees in science, math or engineering

Educational Background of Professional-level IT Workers

John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U.S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

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IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012

Employment, Numbers

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Professional ITOccupations

Engineers Life Scientists Physical Scientists Natural SciencesManagers

2002

2012


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Change in IT Occupational EmploymentNumber, 2001-2002

(50,000) (40,000) (30,000) (20,000) (10,000) - 10,000 20,000 30,000

Computer Systems Analysts

Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

Computer Hardware Engineers

Computer and Information Scientists, Research

Database Administrators

Computer and Information Systems Managers

Computer Software Engineers, Applications

Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software

Computer Support Specialists

Computer Programmers

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Off ice of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002, http://w w w .bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm


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Unemployment Rates

Average Annual Unemployment Engineers, IT Workers, Professional Specialties

1983-2002

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Percent

EngineersComputer system analysts and scientistsComputer programmersProfessional specialities

NOTE: The labor force and unemployed reported above include only the experienced unemployed, classif ied by the occupation of their last job. Computer system analysts and scientists includes computer analyst, computer scientist, computer-systems planning, computer-systems analyst, data processing consultant, information scientist, softw are specialist, and other occupations. Computer system analysts and scientists are classif ied w ithin professional specialty occupations and computer programmers in technicians and related support occupations. Data for 2000-2002 have been revised to incorporate population controls from Census 2000.


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Aggregate IT Employment 1999-2002

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1999 2000 2001 2002SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002, http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm

Change, 2000-2001Number:-92,870Percent: -3.5%

Change, 2001-2002Number:-42.090Percent: -1.7%

Change, 1999-2000Number: 295,880Percent: +12.6%


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Occupational Growth RatesIT vs. All Occupations

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Computer systems analysts and scientists

All Occupations

Growth Rate of Professional-level IT Occupations Outstrips Growth Rate for All Occupations

Growth Rate of IT Occupations, All Occupations Since 1991

, SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Population Survey 1990-2000, Household Data Annual Averages, Employed Persons


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Recent Occupational GrowthGrowth in Numbers

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Computer Systems Analysts & ScientistsElectrical/Electronic Engineers

Computer ProgrammersCivil Engineers

Medical ScientistsChemists

Biological/Life ScientistsAerospace Engineers

Engineers, n.e.c.Atmospheric/Space

Industrial EngineersGeologists/Geodesists

Forestry/Conservation ScientistsMathematical Scientists, n.e.c.

Agricultural EngineersNuclear Engineers

Agricultural/Food ScientistsMetallurgical/Materials Engineers

Petroleum EngineersMining Engineers

Physical Scientists, n.e.c.Physicists/Astronomers

Marine EngineersMechanical Engineer

Chemical Engineers

Employment Growth in S&E Occupations1996-2001, in thousands

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data


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IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012

Total Job Openings

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Professional ITOccupations

Engineers Life Scientists Physical Scientists Natural SciencesManagers

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Occupational Distribution of Projected S&E Job Openings(new jobs plus net replacements)

2002-2012

Natural Science

Managers

Information Technology

Engineers

Physical Scientists

Life Scientists

70%


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The Market PerspectiveDegree Production vs. Projected Job Openings

Annual Degrees and Job Openings in Broad S&E Fields

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Engineering Physical Sciences Mathematical/Computer Sciences

Biological/Agricultural Sciences

PhD

Master's

Bachelor's

Projected Job Openings

SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/S RS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections


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Once upon a time, the “content” of the goods we produced was largely physical

Education for the “innovation economy”

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Then we transitioned to goods whose “content” was a balance of physical and intellectual

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In the “innovation economy,” the content of goods is almost entirely intellectual rather than physical

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Every state consumes “innovation economy” goods Information technology, biotechnology,

telecommunications, …

We produce these goods! Over the past 20 years, the Puget Sound

region has had the fastest pro-rata growth in the nation in the “high tech services” sector

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National and regional studies conclude the 3/4ths of the jobs in software require a Bachelors degree or greater (and it’s highly competitive among those with this credential!)

What kind of education is needed to produce “innovation economy” goods?

Average Earnings as a Proportion of High School Graduates’ Earnings, 1975 to 1999

25

1

6

9

6

9

5

1

35

38

42

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50Engineersemployed /

10,000workers

Computerspecialistsemployed /

10,000workers

Life andphysical

scientistsemployed /

10,000workers

Persons withrecent

science &engineeringBachelorsdegrees /10,000workers

Recentscience &

engineeringPh.D.

degrees /10,000workers

Percent ofemployment

in high-technology

NAICS codes

Percent ofpayroll in

high-technology

NAICS codes

Bachelorsdegrees

granted (allinstitutions,public andprivate) /

population of18-24 year

olds

Percent ofBachelorsdegrees

granted inscience &

engineering

Science &engineering

graduatestudents /


olds

Wa

sh

ing

ton

's r

an

kin

g a

mo

ng

th

e s

tate

s

26

1

6

9

6

9

5

1

35

38

42

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50Engineersemployed /

10,000workers

Computerspecialistsemployed /

10,000workers

Life andphysical

scientistsemployed /

10,000workers

Persons withrecent

science &engineeringBachelorsdegrees /10,000workers

Recentscience &

engineeringPh.D.

degrees /10,000workers

Percent ofemployment

in high-technology

NAICS codes

Percent ofpayroll in

high-technology

NAICS codes

Bachelorsdegrees

granted (allinstitutions,public andprivate) /


olds

Percent ofBachelorsdegrees

granted inscience &

engineering

Science &engineering

graduatestudents /


olds

Wa

sh

ing

ton

's r

an

kin

g a

mo

ng

th

e s

tate

s

27

53

2

6

15

20

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50Total R&D

ExpendituresIndustry R&DExpenditures

FFRDC R&DExpenditures

Non-Profits R&DExpenditures

Federal R&DExpenditures

University andCollege R&DExpenditures

State Support ofUniversity

Research (48thper capita)

Was

hin

gto

n's

ran

kin

g a

mo

ng

th

e st

ates

28

53

2

6

15

20

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50Total R&D

ExpendituresIndustry R&DExpenditures

FFRDC R&DExpenditures

Non-Profits R&DExpenditures

Federal R&DExpenditures

University andCollege R&DExpenditures

State Support ofUniversity

Research (48thper capita)

Was

hin

gto

n's

ran

kin

g a

mo

ng

th

e st

ates

29

WSU and UW State Funding, Per Student, Relative to Olympia-Defined “Peers”

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Washington is all geared up to fight the last war!

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Bachelors degrees, nationwide, 1997: 222,000 in business 125,000 in the social sciences 105,000 in education

63,000 in all of engineering 25,000 in computer science

More broadly (some data is not current, but nothing much has changed)

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China granted only 1/4 as many Bachelors degrees in 1997 as did the US (325,000 vs. 1.2M)

But China granted 2.5 times as many Bachelors degrees in engineering (149,000 vs. 63,000)In 2003, China and India each produced

about 200,000 Bachelors degrees in engineering

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U.S. Lags Other Nations in Share of 24-Year-Olds With Natural Science, Engineering Degrees

Also: The United States ranks 61st out of 63 nations in the share of S&E degrees as a total of all bachelor’s degrees.


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What’s the fastest-growing undergraduate major in America today?

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857 Ph.D. computer scientistsAnd roughly half of the Ph.D.s in engineering

and computer science were awarded to non-residents

At the doctoral level (also 1997): 40,000 J.D.’s

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Share of Total S&E Degrees Earned by Non-Resident Aliens, by Degree Level

Share of U.S. Degrees Earned By Non-Resident Aliens in 2000, by Degree Level

0%5%

10%

15%20%25%30%35%

40%45%50%

BS PhD BS PhD BS PhD BS PhD BS PhD

Engineering Physical Science

Mathematics Computer Science

BiologicalScience


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Roughly 20K engineers/year enter on H-1B’s Total IT + engineering workforce: ~5M

H-1B visas

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It works both ways! The US ran a $60B surplus in services trade in 2003 – it has grown every year since 1996

Even at its peak, in 2001, trade-related layoffs represented 0.6% of unemployment Fewer than 200K jobs have shifted abroad in

each of the past 3 years, but 15M jobs have been lost in the US in each recent year

BLS projects a US workforce of 165.3M in 2012; Forrester Research projects 3.3M jobs outsourced by 2015

Worldwide sourcing

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Bill Wulf, President, National Academy of Engineering: If [managers] can get comparable talent at

1/5th the cost in India, and if the start-up cost is small, and if the cost stays small, and if the productivity per unit cost is high enough, and if they can manage from 10,000 miles and 12 times zones away – then they will outsource, and they should!

The problem is the nation’s access to engineering talent; and it is not the individual manager in an individual company that is responsible for solving that problem.

1 the it workforce ed lazowska it & public policy autumn 2004

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