1 strategic reasoning

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Strategic Reasoning

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The Human Ability To KnowThe Human Ability To Know is referred to as

COGNITION.

As strategists want to know about thewant to know about thestrategic problemsstrategic problems facing their organization,

they need to Engage In Cognitive ActivitiesEngage In Cognitive Activities (

Strategic Thinking ActivitiesStrategic Thinking Activities).

Need to be Structured Into StrategicStructured Into Strategic

Reasoning Process.Reasoning Process.

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First step is to examine the Various CognitiveVarious Cognitive

ActivitiesActivities. ( will be discussed later on).

To be able to perform these cognitive

activities, people need to Command CertainCommand Certain

Mental Faculties.Mental Faculties.

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The human brain while Very Sophisticated IsVery Sophisticated Is

Still Physically Strictly LimitedStill Physically Strictly Limited( limitations to

human cognitive abilities will be discussed

later on) .

To deal with its Inherent ShortcomingsInherent Shortcomings the

human brain copes by building a SimplifiedSimplified

Model OfThe WorldModel OfThe World,, referred to as

COGNITIVE MAPSCOGNITIVE MAPS..

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Cognitive activities

Cognitive Maps

Cognitive abilities

Application level

Mental reasoning

O.S. levelMental models

Hardware level

Mental faculties.


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Cognitive ActivitiesCognitive Activities are mental tasks intended toincrease the strategists knowing.strategists knowing.

A GENERAL DISTINCTION CAN BE MADEA GENERAL DISTINCTION CAN BE MADE :

Cognitive Activities Directed Towards DEFINING ADEFINING A

STRATEGIC PROBLEMSTRATEGIC PROBLEM. ( identifyingidentifying diagnosingdiagnosing)Cognitive Activities Directed Towards SOLVING ASOLVING A

STRATEGIC PROBLEMSTRATEGIC PROBLEM.. ( conceivingconceiving -- realizingrealizing)

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Identifying

Recognizing

Sense-making

What is a problem?

Before

strategists can

move to

benefit from

opportunities

or to counter

threats.

DiagnosingAnalyzing

What is the

nature of the

problem?

To come to

grips with a

problem,

strategists

must try to

understand:

Structure

Underlying

Causes

Realizing

Implementing

Acting

What actions

should be taken?

To deal

with a

strategic

problem a

strategist

must

come upwith a

potential

solution

Conceiving

Formulating

Imagining

How should the

problem be

addressed?

A strategic

problem is

really

addressed

once concrete

actions are

undertakenthat achieve

results.

Must be awareof these

challenges


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A structural approach to these Four CognitiveFour Cognitive

ActivitiesActivities is to carry them out in the abovecarry them out in the above

orderorder, starting withstarting withproblem identificationproblem identification and

then moving throughmoving throughdiagnosisdiagnosis to conceivingconceiving

solutions and finally realizing them.finally realizing them.

In this approach the first stepthe first step, IdentifyingIdentifying

Strategic ProblemsStrategic Problems, would require extensiveextensive

external and internal scanning.external and internal scanning.

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The scanning is achieved by sifting of incomingsifting of incoming

information and the selection of priorityinformation and the selection of priority

issues.issues.

In the next reasoning step ,the strategicthe strategic

problems recognized would have to diagnosedproblems recognized would have to diagnosed

by gathering more detailed databy gathering more detailed data, and by

further analyzing and refining the information.analyzing and refining the information.

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Once the problem had been properly defined,

A Strategy Could Be FormulatedA Strategy Could Be Formulated by EvaluatingEvaluating

The Available Options And Deciding WhichThe Available Options And Deciding Which

Solution Would Be Best.Solution Would Be Best.

In the final phase, REALIZATIONREALIZATION, the strategist

would need to Ensure Execution OfTheEnsure Execution OfThe

Proposed SolutionProposed Solution by consciously planningconsciously planning

and controlling implementation activities.and controlling implementation activities.

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However, strategists do not always reason instrategists do not always reason in

this stepthis step byby--step fashion.step fashion.

Their t

hinking is often less orderly, wit

h

identifying, diagnosing, conceiving, realizing

intermingled with one anotherintermingled with one another- even going at

the same time.

Nor are the Cognitive Activities As StraightCognitive Activities As Straight--

forward As Portrayed Above.forward As Portrayed Above.

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The identification of strategic problems isoften not about OBJECTIVE OBSERVATIONOBJECTIVE OBSERVATION, butrather SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATIONSUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION-- by

looking at the world from a particular anglethe world from a particular angle,strategists see and value particular, strengths,strategists see and value particular, strengths,weaknesses, opportunities and threats.weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Suchsensesense--making activitiesmaking activities lead to attentionattentionbeing made to some issues, and neglect tobeing made to some issues, and neglect toothers.others.

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Likewise, diagnosing strategic problems is notalways a Structured Analytical Process.

Gaining a deeper understanding of strategicproblems may involve EXPLICIT ANALYSIS, butalso INTUITIVE REFLECTING by employingUNCONSCIOUS REASONING RULES strategistsoften quickly form a general picture ofhowKey Aspects Of A Strategic Problem AreInterrelated.

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Conceiving strategic solutionsConceiving strategic solutions can be equallymessymessy and subjective.subjective.

Often Strategic OptionsOften Strategic Options are not chosen from

an Available Repertoire Of Potential SolutionsAvailable Repertoire Of Potential Solutions,but they are invented (envisioned)are invented (envisioned)-- strategistsimagine how things could be done.

Such Idea GenerationSuch Idea Generation can involve reasoning byAnalogy Or Metaphor, Brainstorming OrAnalogy Or Metaphor, Brainstorming OrFantasizing.Fantasizing.

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New potential solutions may come to the

strategist in a flash or emerge over timeflash or emerge over time, but

usually Require A Period Of IncubationRequire A Period Of Incubation

Beforehand And A Period Of NurturingBeforehand And A Period Of Nurturing

Afterwards.Afterwards.

Furthermore, strategists often find it

impossible to objectively prove which newimpossible to objectively prove which newidea would be the best solution.idea would be the best solution.

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Therefore, the process of deciding on thethe process of deciding on the

solution to be pursuedsolution to be pursued may involve more

JUDGMENTTHAN CALCULATIONS.JUDGMENTTHAN CALCULATIONS.

Finally, it must be emphasized that actionthat action

does not always come lastdoes not always come last, in the form of

solution implementation. It is often necessary

To Test Certain Assumptions In Practice And ToTo Test Certain Assumptions In Practice And ToExperiment.Experiment.

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COGNITIVE ABILITIES:

The nature of reality is that many futuremany future

events are inh

erently unpredictableevents are inh

erently unpredictable, due tofactors that are uncertain or unknowable.factors that are uncertain or unknowable.

Yet humans are also burdened with rather

imperfect cognitive abilities.imperfect cognitive abilities.

The Human Brain Is Severely Limited In WhatThe Human Brain Is Severely Limited In What

It Can Know.It Can Know.

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While senses are bombarded withstimuli much of reality remainsunobservable to humans.

People limited ability to registerthe structure of reality is due toinherent superficiality of the

senses and the complexity ofreality.

Humanitysfirst

handicap is:

Limitedinformation

sensingability


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A second drawback is that humans donot have unlimited data processing

abilities. Thinking through problemswithMany Variables, ComplexRelationships And Huge Amounts OfData Is A Very Difficult Task.A Very Difficult Task.

For this reason humans make

extensive use of mental shortcuts-referred to as Cognitive Heuristics.Cognitive Heuristics.

Limitedinformationprocessing

capacity

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M6


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People must store informationvery selectively and organize thisinformation in a way that it canbe easily retrieved .

Again cognitive heuristics makememorization processmanageable help to simplifycomplex cluster of data intomanageable clusters categorize,label and store this information.

Limited

informationstoragecapacity.

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COGNITIVE MAPS:

Knowledge thatpeople have isstored in their

minds in the form ofCognitive Maps,

also referred to ascognitive

schemata, mentalmodels, andknowledgestructure.

Cognitive maps areCognitive maps are

representations in arepresentations in a

persons mind ofpersons mind of

how the worldhow the world

works.works.

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M1


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Slide 21

M1 M.Bakry, 1/26/2010


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Cognitive maps are formed over

time througheducation,education,experience and interaction withexperience and interaction withothers.others.

Based on the inputs of theirsenses, people will INFER CAUSAL

RELATIONSHIPS between

phenomena, making guesses aboutunobservable factors and resolving

inconsistencies between bits ofinformation received.

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In turn, peoples cognitive maps steer their

senses ; while cognitive maps are built onpast sensory data, they will consequentlydirect which new information will be steeredand perceived?

A persons cognitive map will focus attentionon particular phenomena, while blocking outother data as noise, and will quickly makeclear how a situation should be perceived.

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In this way, a cognitive map provides an

interpretive filter or perceptual screen,aiding the senses in selecting andunderstanding external stimuli.

Furthermore, cognitive maps help to directbehavior, by providing an existing repertoire

of problem- solving responses ( referred toas scripts or recipes from which anappropriate action can be derived.

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In building their cognitive maps, peopleacquire a lot of their knowledge by means ofdirect experience. They learn by doing, thisknowledge is added to peoples cognitivemaps without being articulated.

In other words, Knowledge Gained ThroughExperiential Learning is usually NOT

CODIFIED into Formal Rules, Principles,Models Or Theories, But Remains Tacit.

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People FOR

MULATE IMPLICITFOR

MULATE IMPLICITMODELS ANDDRAWMODELS ANDDRAW

CONCLUSIONS, BUT DO SOCONCLUSIONS, BUT DO SO

LARGELY UNCONSCIOUSLY.LARGELY UNCONSCIOUSLY.

In this way COGNITIVECOGNITIVEMAPS EVOLVEMAPS EVOLVE

WITHOUT PEOPLEWITHOUT PEOPLE

THEMSELVES BEINGTHEMSELVES BEING

ENTIR

ELY AWAR

E OFENTIR

ELY AWAR

E OFTHEIR OWN COGNITIVETHEIR OWN COGNITIVE

MAP.MAP.

Hence when people usetheir INTUITION THIS ISINTUITION THIS ISNOT IRRATIONAL WAYNOT IRRATIONAL WAY

OF REASONINGOF REASONING butthinking guided by the

TACIT KNOWLEDGETACIT KNOWLEDGETHEY HAVE ACQUIREDTHEY HAVE ACQUIRED

IN THE PAST.IN THE PAST.

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REAL WORLDREAL WORLD

INFORMATIONINFORMATIONFEEDBACKFEEDBACK

DECISIONDDECISIOND

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We make

decisions

Alter We gather

Use The Information to Revise Our Understanding OfThe WorldUse The Information to Revise Our Understanding OfThe World

And The Decisions We Make To Bring Our Perception OfThe StateAnd The Decisions We Make To Bring Our Perception OfThe State

OfThe System Closer To Our Goals.OfThe System Closer To Our Goals.


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Real world

Informationfeedback

Mentalmodels

Structure,strategy,decisiondecisionpoliciespolicies

Decisions

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ARE Conditioned

by


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Unknown

structure.Dynamiccomplexity.

Time delays.

Inability to conductcontrolledexperiments.

RealWorld misperception of

feedback.Unscientificreasoning.

Judgmental biases.

Defensive routines.

Mentalmodels

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