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Sino-US Relations (1999-Sino-US Relations (1999-2009)2009)

Guo XuetangGuo Xuetang

Department of International Studies & Department of International Studies & Public AdministrationPublic Administration

SHUPLSHUPL

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1999-1999-2009: Strategic Competitors 2009: Strategic Competitors or Partners?or Partners?

1. WTO Talks and Bilateral Crisis Again in Late 1990s.

– April 6-13, 1999: Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji paid an eight-day official visit to the United States at the invitation of US President Bill Clinton.

– May 8th, 1999: the bombing of Chinese embassy by the US-led NATO in the former Yugoslavia.

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Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, post bombing. You can see the path the shell took before exploding.

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Anti-American protests in Beijing, China (1999) over the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade.

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Chinese policemen surround the U.S. embassy in Beijing on May 10 to prevent demonstrators from storming the compound, following the accidental NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Tens of thousands besieged the U.S. embassy for three days, attacking it with chunks of concrete and glasses.

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1999-1999-2009: Strategic Competitors or 2009: Strategic Competitors or Partners?Partners?

2. Weapons in, weapons out!– In 1999, multiple charges surfaced that China

had stolen nuclear secrets from the U.S. That March, American scientist Wen Ho Lee, who was born in Taiwan, was arrested for transferring classified data to unsecured computers with the supposed intent of passing the information to the PRC.

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• Weapons in, weapons out!– In May 1999, the House Select Committee on U.S.

National Security and Military/ Commercial Concerns with the PRC issued a report, the Cox Report, alleging that China had stolen U.S. nuclear secrets over a prolonged period, allowing it to quickly modernize its nuclear forces.

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3. Taiwan: Between Reassurance and Deterrence– In July 1999, Taiwan’s “president” Lee Tenghui told a

reporter that Taiwan and the PRC had “special state-to-state relations”, and in March 2000, Chen Shuibian was elected president.

Our policy remains firm. It is up to the two sides to resolve their

differences directly and peacefully. We should stay out of the middle. That does not mean that we will be inactive. We will work hard to expand the strong web of unofficial relations …to the people on Taiwan and … work equally hard to improve our relations with Beijing……

----------Susan Shirk, deputy assistant secretary of state for China, Taiwan and HongKong, May 20, 1998

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4. PNTR: Trade and Human Rights– In 2000, the US Congress considered whether to

provide China permanent MFN---permanent normal trade relations (PNTR). The 2000 deliberations took on added significance because if granted PNTR, this potential carrot (or stick) would no longer be available to US policymakers. President Clinton granted China PNTR upon its entry into the WTO, which occurred in late 2001.

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5. Adjustment of US’s China Policy and Its Consequences

• Bush Administration’s View of China as A Strategic Competitor and Its Aggressive Policy Toward China

• On-going Political Pressures Imposed on Chinese Government

• To contain China Militarily

• Economic Engagement and Cooperation With China

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6. Big Downturns of Sino-US Relations in Early Bush Administration

a) Collision between A Chinese Fighter and A US Reconnaissance Place on April.1, 2001

b) US Arms Sales to Taiwan and Approval of Chen Shuiban’s Stopovers in New York and Huston

c) Unilateral Suspension of Military Contacts and Exchanges by the US

d) Strengthen the Military Containment Policy Toward China

e) Human Rightsf) Proliferation of Missile Technologies

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7. Improvement of Sino-US relations before Sept.11a) The Improvement of Negotiation Over Plane Collisionb) Willingness of Improving Bilateral Relations by Both

Leaderships c) Great Restrain of Chinese Government to US Arms Sales to

Taiwand) US Renewal of China’s NTR Status in June, 2001e) US Support of China’s Earlier Entrance into WTOf) US Neutral Policy on Beijing’s Bid for Hosting 2008

Olympicg) Secretary of State Collin Powell’s Official Visit to China on

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The 911 Terrorist Attacks!

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Are we prepared to deal with international terrorism?

The Anti-Terrorism Cooperation

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8. Crises and Turns in China-US Relations After Sept.11 a) Fight Against Terrorism is in the Mutual-Interests of Both Countries

b) The Firm Strategic Economic Relationship Between China and the US

c) Requirements of Domestic Political and Economic Conditions in Both Nations

d) Unilateral Foreign Policy of the US was Challenged

Summit meeting in Shanghai APEC on Oct.19, 2001

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China-US Relations: Hand in hand?

2001 年 10 月 21 日，江泽民主席在上海科技馆迎接美国总统布什。

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American President George W. Bush paid a working visit to Beijing on Feb. 21-22, 2002

Chinese Vice-President Hu Jintao talked with U.S. President

George W. Bush in White House on May 1, 2002

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9. Chen Shuibian, a trouble-maker in China-US relations– the Anti-secession law in 2005– China has said the law is by no means a so-called "law on the use

of force against Taiwan" or a so-called "war mobilization order." China would only use "non-peaceful means" to stop Taiwan'ssecession should all efforts for a peaceful reunification prove futile.

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– The U.S. oppose Taiwan independence– China-U.S. cooperation and the peaceful tranformation

of Taiwan political power

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– The Bush administration has agreed to sell Taiwan $6.43 billion of weapons in Oct. 2008. The last major arms sale to Taiwan was in 1992, just as the current President Bush's father was leaving office.

– In response U.S. announcement of Taiwan arms sales, China canceled or postponed several upcoming military-to-military exchanges.

– The proposed sale had "poisoned" otherwise-improving military relations with the U.S..

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U.S. Proposes $6.43 Billion Arms Sale to Taiwan in Oct. 2008

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10. On March 8, the USNS Impeccable while monitoring Chinese submarine activity, was involved in a standoff with Chinese naval and fishing vessels some 75 miles south of Hainan island.

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11. The financial crisis and China’s growing role in international financial systems (IMF and WB)– Despite its severe impacts, many believe

the international financial crisis also means an opportunity for China to upgrade its economic structure, increase its influence in international affairs, and participate in the reform of the order.

– China, in fact, has expressed its hope for a "just, equitable, sound and stable" economic order.

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The second Group of 20 (G20) Summit concluded in London on April 2 2009, with consensus on how to get the world out of the financial crisis, including pledge of 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars to revive the world economy, a joint call to fight protectionism, and concrete actions to tighten banking regulations.

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12. Protectionism on the rise - how likely is a trade war?– The spat between China and the US on the

issue of tyre tariffs will lead to a larger trade confrontation and more protectionism.

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Question: Question: Whither will China-US relations go in a Whither will China-US relations go in a new decade from your point of view?new decade from your point of view?