1 risk-based evaluations and trends of railway casualty accidents on the national railway of south...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Risk-based Evaluations and Trends of Railway
Casualty Accidents on the National Railway of
South Korea
International Railway Safety Conference 2007
Goa, India
3030thth September - 6 September - 6thth October October
Chanwoo Park, Jongbae Wang, Yunok Cho, Hyukjin Yoon, Joonam Park
2
I Introduction
Contents
II Development of Risk Assessment Model
III Risk Assessment Results
IV Conclusion
3
Railway Accident Classification in South Korea
1. Introduction
Railway Traffic
Accident
Train Accident Train collision accident, Train derailment accident, Train fire accident, Other train accidents
Level Crossing Accident
Collision or contact between a train and a road vehicle on the railway level crossing (excluding collision between a train and people)
Railway Traffic Casualty Accident
Passenger casualty accident, Worker casualty accident, MOP casualty accident (including collision between a train and people in level crossings)
Train Operation
Delay Accident
Rolling stock derailment, Rolling stock damages, Rolling stock fire, Rolling stock separation, Rolling stock rolling, Regulation violation such as SPAD, Railway track failure, Electric supply system failure, Signal system failure, Rolling stock failure, etc
Railway Safety
Accident
Railway safety casualty accident, Fire accident, Infrastructure/equipment accident, Construction accident
Disaster
“The Railway Safety Act was established in 2004 The railway accident report regulation has been set up in 2006”
Railway Accident Classification by the RRailway Accident Classification by the Railway Accident Report Regulation
4
Railway Casualty Accident
1. Introduction
Excluding train derailment, train collision, train fires/explosion
Excluding collision between a train and a road vehicle on the railway level crossing
Including suspected suicide
Including collision between a train and people in level crossings
Excluding train derailment, train collision, train fires/explosion
Excluding collision between a train and a road vehicle on the railway level crossing
Including suspected suicide
Including collision between a train and people in level crossings
Casualty accidents in both railway traffic accidents and safety accidents
All kinds of accidents that cause Injuries of people on railway premises
The railway casualty accident refers to …..
5
Railway Casualty Accident Situation on the Main Line
1. Introduction
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Freq
uecy
Total Accident Frequency
Casualty Accident Frequency
150
170
190
210
230
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
FW
I
Total Accident RiskCasualty Accident Risk
Accident Frequency per Year Fatalities and Weighted Injuries (FWI/Year)
“the number of casualty accidents occupies more than 50% of railway
accidents
and 90% of the total risk of railway in South Korea.”
0.1 of a fatality for major injury
0.005 of a fatality for minor injury.
6
1. Introduction
Research Objectives
Quantitative Risk Evaluation of Casualty Accidents for Passengers, Railway Staffs and MOP (Member of public)
Hazard Identification / Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) Hazard Identification / Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) Hazard Identification / Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) Hazard Identification / Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA)
Frequency AnalysisFrequency AnalysisFrequency AnalysisFrequency Analysis Consequence AnalysisConsequence AnalysisConsequence AnalysisConsequence Analysis
Risk AnalysisRisk AnalysisRisk AnalysisRisk Analysis
Interaction analysis between hazardous events and Interaction analysis between hazardous events and hazardous conditionhazardous condition
WWWSafety regulations, Safety regulations, Published sourcesPublished sources
Accident related Accident related reportsreports
Accident Analysis
7
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Risk Analysis Process
HazardIdentification
Causal Analysis
ConsequenceAnalysis
LossAnalysis
OptionsAnalysis
ImpactAnalysis
DemonstrationOf ALARP and
Compliance
- Railtrack, Yellow Book 3: Fundamentals and Guidance, 2000 -- Railtrack, Yellow Book 3: Fundamentals and Guidance, 2000 -
8
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Overall Procedures
Railway Accident Railway Accident
Appearance ScenariosAppearance Scenarios
Railway Accident Railway Accident
Appearance ScenariosAppearance Scenarios
FTA Model FTA Model FTA Model FTA Model
Railway Accident Railway Accident
Progress Scenarios Progress Scenarios
Railway Accident Railway Accident
Progress Scenarios Progress Scenarios
ETA Model ETA Model ETA Model ETA Model
Casu
al A
nalysis
Co
nseq
uen
ceA
nalysis
Hazard Identification Hazard Identification Hazard Identification Hazard Identification
Defining the Initiating Hazardous EventsDefining the Initiating Hazardous EventsDefining the Initiating Hazardous EventsDefining the Initiating Hazardous Events
Development of Accident Scenarios Development of Accident Scenarios Development of Accident Scenarios Development of Accident Scenarios
Risk Assessment (Loss Analysis)Risk Assessment (Loss Analysis)
HazardousHazardous
EventsEvents
9
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Initiating Hazardous Events
Railway Category
Initiating Hazardous Events
Railway Traffic Casualty Accident
People struck/crushed
Striking with train, Striking with objects
Trip/SlipTrip/slip during train boarding/alighting, Trip/slip by train emergency braking/emergency start
FallingFalling from train, Falling from platform during train boarding/alighting
Caught/Dragged Caught in a train door, Caught between platform and train
Others Electric Shock, Burn, Suffocation
Railway safety accident
People struck/crushed
Striking with rolling stock, Striking with objects
Trip/SlipTrip/slip inside station premises, Trip/slip on track/level crossing, Trip/slip inside rolling stock , Trip/slip at workplace
FallingFalling from rolling stock, Falling from rolling stock roof, Falling during elevated work, Falling from railway structure, Falling from platform
Caught/DraggedCaught in installations inside rolling stock, Caught in railway structure of station, Caught in work equipment/objects
Electric Shock Electric shock in rolling stock and railway structure
Burn Burn in rolling stock and railway structure
Suffocation Suffocation in rolling stock and railway structure
Others Patient occurrence, Assault/threat, Discovery for casualties
10
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Accident Appearance Scenario Structure
HazardousHazardous
EventEvent
HazardousHazardous
Factor 1 Factor 1
HumanHuman
FactorsFactors
TechnicalTechnical
Factors Factors
Third Third
Party Party
Hazard Hazard
HazardousHazardous
Factor X Factor X
HumanHuman
FactorsFactors
TechnicalTechnical
Factors Factors
Third Third
Party Party
Hazard Hazard
The number of ……
Hazardous events is 28..
Appearance scenarios including hazardous factors is 282.
Detailed hazardous factors is 47.
Accident appearance scenarios is 13,254..
Hazardous events is 28..
Appearance scenarios including hazardous factors is 282.
Detailed hazardous factors is 47.
Accident appearance scenarios is 13,254..
Detailed Hazardous FactorsDetailed Hazardous Factors Detailed Hazardous FactorsDetailed Hazardous Factors
11
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Accident Appearance Scenario Example
12
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Accident Progress Scenario Structure
Critical factors influencing accident severity
were identified in the accident progress scenarios”
Example of the Accident Progress Scenarios
13
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Accident Analysis Information System
1) railway operation data processing part; 2) accident/incident data processing part; 3) hazard list
management part; 4) hazardous event management part; 5) environment condition management part;
6) safety measure management part; 7) statistical analysis part of accident/incident data; 8) accident
scenario creation/management part
Railway Accident Analysis Information SystemRailway Accident Analysis Information System
Accident/Incident Analysis
Statistical Analysis ofAccident/Incident Data
Accident Scenario
Creation/Management
14
3. Risk Assessment Results
Railway Casualty Accident Data Analysis
Railway accident data for two years (2004 – 2005) on the main line of South Korea were analyzed.
In the case of rare events not available from accident data,
each risk were assessed using engineering judgments.
Total risk per year: 182.9 Total risk per year: 182.9
Average Frequency per year: 447.0Average Frequency per year: 447.0
Injured PeopleFatalities and Weighted Injuries (FWI)/Year
Values Percentages
Passenger 53.0 29.0%
Member of public (MOP)
115.3 63.1%
Staff 14.5 7.9%
Total 182.8 100.0%
15
3. Risk Assessment Results
Total Risk for Railway Casualty Accidents
16
3. Risk Assessment Results
Average Frequency/yr for Hazardous Events
17
3. Risk Assessment Results
Risk for Hazardous Events
18
3. Risk Assessment Results
Risk for Train Striking Events
19
3. Risk Assessment Results
Risk Profile
20
4. Conclusion
Risk model based on the accident scenarios. Risk model based on the accident scenarios.
Totally 28 initiating hazardous events Totally 28 initiating hazardous events
Accident frequency assessment model using the FTA techniqueAccident frequency assessment model using the FTA technique
Consequence estimation model using the FTA techniqueConsequence estimation model using the FTA technique
Risk model based on the accident scenarios. Risk model based on the accident scenarios.
Totally 28 initiating hazardous events Totally 28 initiating hazardous events
Accident frequency assessment model using the FTA techniqueAccident frequency assessment model using the FTA technique
Consequence estimation model using the FTA techniqueConsequence estimation model using the FTA technique
Development of risk assessment model for the railway casualty accidentsDevelopment of risk assessment model for the railway casualty accidents
Total overall risk per year: 182.9Total overall risk per year: 182.9
Risk per year for passenger, MOP, and staff: 53, 115.3, 14.5 Risk per year for passenger, MOP, and staff: 53, 115.3, 14.5
Risk of “people striking with train” event: 86.7%Risk of “people striking with train” event: 86.7%
Risk of “trespassers on the open tracks between stations” event: 49.2%Risk of “trespassers on the open tracks between stations” event: 49.2%
Total overall risk per year: 182.9Total overall risk per year: 182.9
Risk per year for passenger, MOP, and staff: 53, 115.3, 14.5 Risk per year for passenger, MOP, and staff: 53, 115.3, 14.5
Risk of “people striking with train” event: 86.7%Risk of “people striking with train” event: 86.7%
Risk of “trespassers on the open tracks between stations” event: 49.2%Risk of “trespassers on the open tracks between stations” event: 49.2%
Risk assessment for railway casualty accidentsRisk assessment for railway casualty accidents
““First step in the risk assessment of railway casualty accidents in KoreaFirst step in the risk assessment of railway casualty accidents in Korea
Application to the definition of the risk reduction measures”Application to the definition of the risk reduction measures”
21
Thank you!