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Progress and Challenges Progress and Challenges in Motor Vehicle Pollution in Motor Vehicle Pollution ControlControlThe Role of Alternative The Role of Alternative FuelsFuels

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OverviewOverview

Why Use Alternative Fuels?Why Use Alternative Fuels? What Alternative Fuel Vehicles are What Alternative Fuel Vehicles are

Available Now?Available Now? Alternative Fuel Vehicle R&D Alternative Fuel Vehicle R&D

ChallengesChallenges

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Why Use Alternative Why Use Alternative Fuels?Fuels?

Petroleum DisplacementPetroleum Displacement Energy DiversityEnergy Diversity Air Quality ImprovementAir Quality Improvement Greenhouse Gas Emission Greenhouse Gas Emission

ReductionsReductions Domestic Economic DevelopmentDomestic Economic Development

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Smog is Becoming Pervasive

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1988 1998

Calendar Year

0

50

100

150

200

micrograms/cubic meter

Air Quality Readings

Standard

Nitrogen Oxide Air Quality Trends Nitrogen Oxide Air Quality Trends in Beijingin Beijing

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Diesel Vehicles54.6%

Petrol Vehicles0.8%Paved Road Dust

10.9%

Unpaved Road Dust3.1%

Construction Composite2.3%

Oil Boilers0.9%

Marine Aerosol7.1%

Secondary Sulphate13.1%

Secondary Nitrate3.9%

Secondary Ammonium3.3%

Source Contribution for RSP (1994)Source Contribution for RSP (1994)Mong Kok Annual AverageMong Kok Annual Average

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Air Pollution Problem Caused ByAir Pollution Problem Caused By Diesel Vehicles in Hong Kong Diesel Vehicles in Hong Kong

Taxis, goods vehicles and busesTaxis, goods vehicles and buses 30% 30% of vehicle populationof vehicle population 70% 70% of all mileageof all mileage 98% 98% of vehicle particulate emissions of vehicle particulate emissions

and 100% black smokeand 100% black smoke 75% 75% of vehicle NOx emissionsof vehicle NOx emissionsCause of recent record high Air Cause of recent record high Air

Pollution IndexPollution Index

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Heavy Duty Diesel1.9%

Light Duty Diesel3.7%

Motor Cycle47.2%

Gasoline Exhaust10.6%

Road Dust30.2%

Steel Mill2.6%

Power Plant0.1%

Secondary Sulfate1.2%

NaNO31.4%

Marine Aerosols1.1%

Odean Circle

Light Duty Diesel9.4%

Motor Cycle47.5%Gasoline Exhaust

5.4%

Road Dust31.5%

Steel Mill3.1%

Power Plant0.2%

Secondary Sulfate0.6%

NaNO31.3%Marine Aerosols

1.0%

Pratunam Intersection

Source: PM Abatement Strategy for the Bangkok Metropolitan AreaDraft Final Report

Radian International

Sources of PM Emissions in High Sources of PM Emissions in High Traffic Areas of Bangkok - 1996Traffic Areas of Bangkok - 1996

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Suspended Particulate Suspended Particulate Matter Air Quality Trends Matter Air Quality Trends

in Japanin Japan

00.020.040.060.080.1

0.120.140.160.18

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

mg/m

3

General StationsRoadside Stations

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Transportation Share of Transportation Share of Emissions in USEmissions in US

Still a major contributor, Still a major contributor, despite reductions in new despite reductions in new vehicle emissions achieved vehicle emissions achieved over the last decadeover the last decade

CO

NOx

Lead

VOCs

CO2

Particulates

79%

53%

13%

44%

33%

25%

SO2

7%

Source: EPA

Different Automotive Fuels Different Automotive Fuels = Different Exhaust = Different Exhaust Emissions Emissions

ÖL

+ Additives

+ Additives

Blending with5 - 12

differentComponents

DifferentCrude Oils

and Refineries

ParaffinsNaphtensAromaticsOlefins

AromaticsParaff./Napht.OlefinsOxygenates

~300 HC

~200 HC

+ Air Different Combustion NOx

HC

SO2

C6H6 PAHPM

COCO2

Gasoline

Diesel

Formulation ?

Formulation ?

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Estimated World Oil Estimated World Oil SupplySupply

Source: EIA, Long Term World Oil Supply, July 28, 2000.

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Relative Greenhouse Relative Greenhouse GasesGases

Propane

Natural Gas

Methanol (from N)

Ethanol (Future)

Ethanol (Now)

Gasoline & Diesel Fuel

25 50 75 100

Zero or a Credit

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Alternative Transportation Alternative Transportation FuelsFuels

ElectricityElectricity EthanolEthanol HydrogenHydrogen MethanolMethanol Natural GasNatural Gas

– CompressedCompressed– LiquefiedLiquefied

Propane (LPG)Propane (LPG) 100% Biodiesel100% Biodiesel

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Alternative Fuel Vehicles Alternative Fuel Vehicles Available NowAvailable Now

EthanolEthanol Natural GasNatural Gas Propane (LPG)Propane (LPG)

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Natural Gas VehiclesNatural Gas Vehicles Very Low Very Low

EmissionsEmissions Good Good

PerformancePerformance Lower Cost FuelLower Cost Fuel

Limited Range, but Limited Range, but Adequate for Most Adequate for Most ApplicationsApplications

Few Refueling Few Refueling StationsStations

Higher Cost VehicleHigher Cost Vehicle

Ford Crown Victoria Ford F-150

Honda Civic New Flyer D40 LF Bus

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Propane VehiclesPropane Vehicles

Low EmissionsLow Emissions Good Good

PerformancePerformance Cost Similar to Cost Similar to

GasolineGasoline

Few Typical Few Typical Refueling Stations, Refueling Stations, Many Potential Many Potential Places to RefuelPlaces to Refuel

Higher Vehicle Higher Vehicle CostCostFord F-150 Ford Club Wagon

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Gasoline and LPG

G-DI

Conventional Diesel

Comparison of Particle Emissions from SMPS.7: All Vehicles and Fuels - 50kph

1.00E+06

1.00E+07

1.00E+08

1.00E+09

1.00E+10

1.00E+11

1.00E+12

1.00E+13

1 10 100 1000

Electrical Mobility Diameter/nm

log

sc

ale

[P

art

icle

s/k

m]

Conventional Diesels

DirectInjectionGasoline

Trap Equipped Diesels

MPI and LPG

Gasoline

Ultrafine Particles Vary For Ultrafine Particles Vary For Different FuelsDifferent Fuels

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SMPS Number Weighted Size Distributions, EII and EIII Technologies, ETC Urban Phase

Diesel and Gaseous Fuels

1E+11

1E+12

1E+13

1E+14

1E+15

1 10 100 1000Diameter/nm

Em

issi

on

g/k

Wh

ETCU-Euro III-2000 ETCU-Euro III-SWCL1ETCU-Euro III-UKULSD ETCU-Euro II-2000ETCU-Euro II-SWCL1 ETCU-Euro II-UKULSDETCU-Euro III-NG-CNG ETCU-Euro III-NG-G20ETCU-Euro III-NG-G25

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Ethanol VehiclesEthanol Vehicles

Low GHGsLow GHGs Less ReactiveLess Reactive

Subsidy Subsidy Required to be Required to be Cost Cost CompetitiveCompetitive

Ford Taurus Chrysler MinivanFord Ranger

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Alternative Fuel Vehicle Alternative Fuel Vehicle R&D ChallengesR&D Challenges

Ethanol Production from CelluloseEthanol Production from Cellulose Reduce Natural Gas and Propane Reduce Natural Gas and Propane

Vehicle CostVehicle Cost Expand Refueling InfrastructureExpand Refueling Infrastructure

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Long-term Outcomes With Long-term Outcomes With Alternative FuelsAlternative Fuels

Billions of gallons of oil displaced Billions of gallons of oil displaced or reducedor reduced

Thousands of tons of emission Thousands of tons of emission reductionsreductions

Enhanced energy security and Enhanced energy security and improved transportation improved transportation sustainabilitysustainability

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Elements of an Alternative Elements of an Alternative Fuels StrategyFuels Strategy

Elements of an Alternative Elements of an Alternative Fuels StrategyFuels Strategy

Set a specific goal Set a specific goal Voluntary programsVoluntary programs Public InformationPublic Information Fleet mandatesFleet mandates Grants and incentivesGrants and incentives

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““On the Road” Goals to Achieve On the Road” Goals to Achieve Sustainable Vehicle Sustainable Vehicle TransportationTransportation

Dramatically Improve “Emissions

& Efficiency”

Reduce Vehicle MilesTraveled

Use Clean Alternative &

RenewableFuels