1 planning live fire test and evaluation: realism vs. the law of unintended consequences james n....
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Planning Live Fire Test and Evaluation:Realism vs. the
Law of Unintended Consequences
James N. Walbert, Ph.D.Chief Scientist
SURVICE Engineering Company
June, 2011
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TOPICS
What does “Mission-Based” really mean?
The “Building Block Approach” to LFT&E
A Post-Shot Interview with an Anthropomorphic Simulator
Parting Shots (Pun Intended)
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What does “Mission-Based”really mean?
Sub-title:Give me the facts;
all of them.
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InitialConditions
ComponentDamage
RemainingCapability
Mission,Task
1. Interactions,Effects
3. Functions,Capabilities
3. Functions,Capabilities
2. Components,Forces
2. Components,Forces
O1,2O1,2O2,3 O2,3
OWNFOR OPFOR
4. Tasks, Operations 4. Tasks, Operations
O3,4
O4,1O3,4
O4,1
5. Index: Location& Time
6. Context, Environment (Military, Civil, Physical, etc.)
7. OWNFOR Why = Purpose, Mission 7. OPFOR Why = Purpose, Mission
7. Mission 7. Mission
1. Interactions,Effects
3. Functions,Capabilities
3. Functions,Capabilities
2. Components,Forces
2. Components,Forces
O1,2O1,2O2,3 O2,3
OWNFOR OPFOR
4. Tasks, Operations4. Tasks, Operations 4. Tasks, Operations4. Tasks, Operations
O3,4
O4,1O3,4
O4,1
5. Index: Location& Time
6. Context, Environment (Military, Civil, Physical, etc.)
7. OWNFOR Why = Purpose, Mission 7. OPFOR Why = Purpose, Mission
7. Mission7. Mission 7. Mission7. MissionMission-Based Test & Evaluation
Damage?
CapabilityLoss?
MissionDegradation?
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Your child says“My arm hurts, so I’m
not going to school today.”
Your child says“I fell down, so I’m not going to school today.”
InitialConditions
ComponentDamage
RemainingCapability
Mission,Task
InitialConditions
ComponentDamage
RemainingCapability
Mission,Task
Mission Readiness made simple:
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InitialConditions
ComponentDamage
RemainingCapability
Mission,Task
InitialConditions
ComponentDamage
RemainingCapability
Mission,Task
There are many possible paths (shortcuts)
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Your child says“I fell down and hurt my arm.My arm hurts so much that
I won’t be able to concentrate,so I’m not going to school today.”
Your child says“I fell down, so
I won’t be able to concentrate,so I’m not going to school today.”
Mission Readiness made less simple:
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InitialConditions
ComponentDamage
RemainingCapability
Mission,Task
InitialConditions
ComponentDamage
RemainingCapability
Mission,Task
InitialConditions
ComponentDamage
RemainingCapability
Mission,Task
Mission Readiness done properly:
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The“Building Block Approach”
to LFT&E
Sub-Title:
What if I have both Legos and Lincoln Logs?
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InitialConditions
ComponentDamage
RemainingCapability
Mission,Task
The DamageCorrelation Process
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Medical
Personnel Vulnerability
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Insult
Injury
Casualty
Incapacitation
InitialConditions
ComponentDamage
RemainingCapability
Mission,Task
Operational
Medical
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Personnel Vulnerability
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Insult
Injury
Casualty
Incapacitation
Dos
eResponse
No Effect TemporaryDiscomfort
Injury SevereInjury
Death
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Personnel Vulnerability
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Insult
Injury
Casualty
Incapacitation
1 MINOR2 MODERATE3 SERIOUS4 SEVERE5 CRITICAL6 VIRTUALLY UNSURVIVABLE9 UNKNOWN
AIS Severity Scale
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Anthropomorphic Simulator Damage Correlation
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Insult
Injury
Casualty
Incapacitation
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If you thought those were big leaps of faith…
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Insult
Incapacitation
InitialConditions
ComponentDamage
RemainingCapability
Mission,Task
Injury
Casualty
PersonnelComponent
Non-PersonnelComponent
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Does “Correlation” mean the samething as “Cause and Effect?”
What Constitutes a “Full-Up” System?
Is a Hybrid III a suitable substitutefor the real component in a
full-up live-fire test?
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Would DOT&E, Congress, and the media tolerate othercomponent substitutions?
How about a fuel tank that has “about the same shapeand weight,” but with different materials and differentresponses to ballistic loading than the original?
How about if that surrogate fuel tank were filled with waterinstead of diesel fuel?
How about if we had correlation curves to compensatefor the different materials and responses?
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A Post-Shot Interview with anAnthropomorphic Simulator
Sub-Title:
Do we have the “right person” for the job?
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Reporter: When the IED went off, did you have the proper sitting posture? Was your seat belt/harness tightened properly?
Anthro: I don’t know – I have no memory.
Reporter: What are your injuries? Where does it hurt?Anthro: What do you mean by “injuries” and “hurt?”
Reporter: Well, can you still do your assigned tasks?Anthro: I have no “assigned tasks.” I couldn’t do anything before the shot,
and I can’t do anything now.
Reporter: It has been suggested that this event was worse than last week’s event. Is that true?
Anthro: I just record events, I don’t judge them.
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Reporter: Do you think a human counterpart would have been injured had he or she gone through what you went through?
Anthro: I have no idea.
Reporter: You haven’t really answered many of my questions. Are you being evasive?
Anthro: I was made for a different line of work. You’re holdingme to a different set of standards.
Reporter: Are you saying your data isn’t worth much?Anthro: Hey, look, you’re asking questions I wasn’t designed
to answer. What do you expect?
Reporter: So, your data really isn’t worth much!Anthro: I want to speak to my lawyer.
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The SAE data processing techniques for the Hybrid III arenot satisfactory for analysis of ballistic impact data.
Impulsive loads are those having a total duration lessthan the system response time.
In order for a blast load to be considered impulsive,the product of the positive duration of the blast (td) andthe fundamental vibration frequency of the system (F)
must be less than or equal to 0.25*
td x F < 0.25
* Army TM 5-855-1 UNCLASSIFIED
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For 20lbs TNT @ 2 ft and a typical combat system,
td < 0.4 ms and F < 100, so td x F < 0.25.
For an automobile crash at 50mph,
td ~ 60-100 ms and F ~ 8-12, so td x F > .25.
The automobile crash is NOT an impulsive load.
The IED event happens more than 100 times faster andwith thousands of times more force than the automobilecrash.
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Original Data
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time, msec
Acc
eler
atio
n,
gs;
Vel
oci
ty,
g-m
s
Data from ballistic events has higher frequency contentthan data from automobile crashes…
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Original, Butterworth, Chebyshev
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time, msec
Acc
eler
atio
n,
gs
SAE (Butterworth) filters lack the narrow transition bandsand flat pass bands necessary to analyze ballistic data.
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Original, Butterworth, Chebyshev
-0.015
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time, msec
Vel
oci
ty,
g-m
sec
Equi-ripple Chebyshev filters are more appropriate foranalysis of ballistic data.
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NHTSA DoD
Rating Chance of Injury (%)
5 Stars <10 4 Stars 11-20 3 Stars 21-35 2 Stars 36-45 1 Star >46
Crew Position
Acceleration Incapacitation and Injury
Probability of Incapacitation
Trauma Severity Profile
Affected Body Region
Assistant Driver
(Crew 2)1.0 000020.2 Spine, Left Tibia
Left Rear Passenger (Crew 8)
1.0 011260.5
Head, Neck, Chest, Spine,Left and Right Femur, Left and Right Tibia,
Left and Right Foot/Ankle
Right Rear Passenger (Crew 9)
1.0 020060.5Head, Neck, Chest, Spine
Left and Right Tibia, Left and Right Foot/Ankle
Crew Position
Acceleration Incapacitation and Injury
Probability of Incapacitation
Trauma Severity Profile
Affected Body Region
Assistant Driver
(Crew 2)1.0 000020.2 Spine, Left Tibia
Left Rear Passenger (Crew 8)
1.0 011260.5
Head, Neck, Chest, Spine,Left and Right Femur, Left and Right Tibia,
Left and Right Foot/Ankle
Right Rear Passenger (Crew 9)
1.0 020060.5Head, Neck, Chest, Spine
Left and Right Tibia, Left and Right Foot/Ankle
Lack of anthro suitability for ballistic events has not stoppedDoD from making higher demands on the data than dothe automotive and insurance industries.
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Parting Shots(Pun Intended)
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Note to BETA (Ballisticians for the Ethical Treatment of Anthros)No anthropomorphic simulators have ever been injuredor killed in the conduct of a live fire test.
Anthros are the only components for which we have no damageor capability information (nor can we get that information).
Use analytical methods appropriate for ballistic events whenanalyzing anthro data.
Either develop an anthro suitable for DoD use, or try a ratingsystem like that of NHTSA for “event survivability” based onprobability of injury, not specific injury types.
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If we’re going to conductMission-Based Test and Evaluation,
let’s do it properly!
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James N. Walbert, Ph.D.Chief Scientist
SURVICE Engineering Company3700 Fettler Park Drive, Suite 401
Dumfries, VA 22025
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