1

OutlineClimate change implication to safety of

primary food productionClimate change interact with

Foodborne illnessesBacterial Stress responseMycotoxins formation

How to cope with climate change impact to human health through food

2

Natural phenomenon of the global changes:

heavy stormforest fireflashfloodslashing soillong droughtwarmer temperatureheavy rain

3

Mean Monthly Rainfall in Thailand (mm)30-year period:1971-2000

4

5

2010 Oct-Nov 3 months

39 provinces in Central and Northeastern regions suffering from flooding. 2,002,961 household with 7 mil. Thai suffering and area of 7.7 mil. Rai under water. 180 death

2011July

12 provinces in Southern Region with 609,511 household, 1.9 mil. Thai suffering. 80 death

6

2011 - Provinces in Thailand July present : 320 death, 3 loss, 2,798,689 household

7

Diseases after flooding event in Thailand 2006 (47 provinces suffering)

9138

5218

2212

686

203

175

30

72

38

2

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Conjunctivitis

Diarrhea

Flu

Animal Poisoning

Food Poisoning

Dysentery

Hepatitis

Dengue Fever

Leptospirosis

Typhoid

Cases

Foodborne disease illnesses count as 31.5% of these cases 8

Climate change and its impact on Agricultural sector : Primary Production

Crop productiondirect microbial population of soil, air and

waterdirect population of pests and vector indirect the occurrence and diseases from

fungi, bacteria, viruses and insects indirect increase of insecticide and

herbicides

application cause the chemical

residue contaminated in produce

9

Value and Quantity of Imported Pesticides (Jan-June, 2009 and 2010)

10

PesticidesJan-June, 2009 Jan-June, 2010

Quantity (kg.)

Value (mil bath)

Quantity (kg.)

Value (mil bath)

Insecticide 7,272,538 1,748.5 12,729,548 2,824.0

Fungicide 3,425,704 1,275.8 4,814,585 2.0

Herbicide 48,879,818 5,787.4 51,295,404 5,694.5

Acaricide 189,509 71.4 192,135 59.3

Rodenticide 100,200 9.6 286,055 42.3

PGR 1,064,723 103.2 1,179,668 111.1

Mollusicide 372,387 29.1 228,000 21.8

Funiganis 244,701 59.9 525,346 86.3

Total 61,649,582 9,085.1 71,250,742 10,823.1

Climate change and its impact on Agricultural sector : Primary Production

Animal productiondirect heat stress effect on health, growth and

reproduction

indirect availability of feeds, water productivity

indirect zoonoses (new disease or reemerging

diseases) transmission cycle of vectors,

the prevalence of vectors and animal host

11

12

Climate change and its impact on Agricultural sector : Fisheries production

migrationsurface winds may alter the distribution of

nutrientshigh CO2 level will alter ocean acidity

variability in precipitation will affect sea levelproductivity of aquaculture system increase vulnerability of cultured fish to diseaseflooding reduce the genetic diversity of wild stockflooding causes the escape of farmed stock

13

Implication for food safety from microbiological perspective

promote the phytoplankton growth may increase the harmful algae blooms, therefore increase risk of consumption bivalve mollusc

promote growth of microorganisms e.g. V. vulnificus leading to increased risk from consumption

14

Climate change and its impact on Agricultural sector : Fisheries production

Climate change and impact on Food Handling, Processing and Trade

influence to the design of food safety management system due to the increase hygiene risks associated with storage and distribution of food commodities

food industries is required to ensure the efficiency of the good practices implementing in hygiene management programes

Need “test” to validate hygiene programereduced the availability and quality of water in food

handling and processing operations will also challenge to hygiene management

15

Faecal matter (animal/human)

skin, nose, throat,

healthy individuals

ubiquitousin

nature

sewage

raw foods

food contact materialswater

air

animalshuman

pest

infected food handlers16

Seasonality and temperature effects on foodborne disease

Seasonal differences in disease incidence are likely to be influenced by population susceptibility and behaviors

Environmental factors impact the abundance of pathogen, their survival and/or their virulence

17

Salmonellosis are preceded by weeks of elevated ambient temperature

(Kovats et al, 2003)18

− Significantly Salmonellosis associated with outdoor temperature in the same month and in the previous month

− this relationship was only observed at temperature greater than 7.5 oC (Bentham et al., 2001)

− the study of salmonellosis in 5 cities in Australia found similar result (D’Souza et al., 2003)

− the greater sensitivity to temperature effects in adults (15-64 yrs) and infection with Salmonella Enteritidis

− suggest that the higher temperature around the time of consumption are important and reinforce the need for further education on food handling behavior

19

Increase in warmer weather may facilitate the transmission of infections intestinal disease

Infection of Salmonella peak in the summer months throughout Europe

over 46% of foodborne disease outbreaks arise from infection within the home, 32.5% outbreaks are a result of time-temperature abuse (such as inadequate refrigeration and insufficient cooking temperature and time)

20

Warmer Temperature in Thailand

In 2010 the average temperature of each month has higher than previous particularly Jan-Feb higher 1-2 oC

the lowest temperature at Tak was 10.1 oC and upper hill at Angkhang, Chiang Mai was 8 oC

The highest temperature was recorded at Mae Hong Son about 44 oC in May.

at the end of 2010 the lowest recorded at Nakornpranom (27 Dec) about 9 oC

21

Thailand National Master Plan on Climate Change 2010-2019

Forecast the average temperature per year will continually increase as 1 oC from 2010-1019

the hot day (>35 oC) increasing from 38% (per year) to 47%

the cool day (<15 oC) decreasing from 3% (per year) to 1%

the raining day decreasing, but the amount of rain increase per year (more heavy rain)

higher ocean temperature promote the monsoon (more severe) during Oct-Feb

Ref : Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (Nov 2009)22

Incidence of outbreaks occurred at different events in Thailand year 2005

23

Daily News6 August 2005

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ครี�ผู้��ปกครีองว� �นั คาดั ข้�าวมั�นัไก�ท้�าพิ ษ“ “ครี�ผู้��ปกครีองว� �นั คาดั ข้�าวมั�นัไก�ท้�าพิ ษ“ “

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Improving Food Hygiene Practices, Improving Food Safety

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Food Place/time Number of caseséclair New year party in Khonkaen School

29 Dec 200286 Students

Fried meat w/basil and steamed rice

School in Samut Sakhon14 April 2006

Kindergarten and Elementary Students more than 100 cases

Steamed rice with chicken

School in Phetchaburi 10 Aug 2006

Students more than 100 cases

School in Chiang Mai 1 May 2007

324 Students

School in Bangkok5 Aug 2007

More than 120 Students

School in Khonkaen17 May 2009

20 Students

Pork curry - stir-fried vegetable

School in Phitsanulok20 Aug 2008

150 Students

Noodle, stir-fried noodle , stir-fried rice,

papaya salad

Children’s day party in Khonkaen10 Jan 2009

218 Students

Roasted and Grill Beef School in Yala30 Mar 2009

56 Students

Pork soup and with rice School in Surat Thani22 May 2009

70 Students

Fish ball noodle School in Bangkok 2 Dec 2009

100 Students

Curry chicken with rice Boy Scout camp at Songkla 17 Feb 2010

115 Students

Food Poisoning cases in Thailand during 1996-2006

Cases

Year

26

Interaction of ecological factors on the proliferation of Vibrio

Elevated environmental pH cause the proliferation of photosynthetic phytoplankton

alkaline pH gives V. cholera advantage over other marine bacteria

promote attachment of V. cholera cells to zooplankton which protects V. cholera cells from external stresses

when phytoplankton disintegrate, additional nutrient sources are available to stimulate the growth of the organism

27

Human is another important factorwhile V. cholera is predominantly a

waterborne diseasesfoodborne transmission can occur through

the use of contaminated water for food preparation irrigation, or from consumption of mollusc and shellfish

28

Other Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Food Safety

− impacts on microbial evolution and stress response− many bacterial agents have developed mechanisms that allow

them to survive and even grow under unfavorable or “stressful” condition

− Stress response are encoded genetically, initial exposure to a sub-lethal dose of a stressor will increase the resistance in bacterial cell

− these bacteria will survive even harsher conditions provided by the stressors

− e.g. E.coli O157:H7 is able to survive an acid shock as low as pH 2 after previous exposure to pH 5

− cells acquire the increased tolerance after pre-exposure to a sub-lethal stress, they frequently develop enhanced resistance to other types of stress which referred as “cross-protection”

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30

Exposure time

(h)

Listeria monocytogenes count (Log CFU/ml)a

Acid-stressed cell Non acid-stressed cell

0 4.72 ± 0.15Aa 4.38 ± 0.56Aa

0.5 4.05 ± 0.10Ab 3.42 ± 0.15Ba

1.0 3.04 ± 0.04Ac 2.13 ± 0.19Bb

1.5 2.00 ± 0.19Ad 0.60 ± 0.51Bc

3.0 NDAe* NDAc

5.0 NDAe NDAc

Survival of acid-stressed cell and non acid-stressed cell of Listeria monocytogenes after expose to lethal acid (pH3.5)

Mahakarnchanakul, W and Ponggunpai, V. ( in progress)

Stress response in BacteriaStress response in Bacteria

31

D- and Z-value of acid-stressed cell and non acid-stressed cell of Listeria monocytogenes after exposure to different temperature

Temperature (C) Acid-stressed cellab Non acid-stressed cellab

D-value (min) D-value (min)

55 45.25Aa 34.36Ba

57 17.83Ab 11.96Bb

59 7.47Ac 7.37Ac

61 3.80Ad 3.74Ad

63 2.40Ad 2.42Ad

Z-value Z-value Z-value

(Temperature; C) 6.21A 7.08B

Mahakarnchanakul, W and Ponggunpai, V. ( in progress)

32

Effect of washing shrimp with various concentrations of lactic acid on Listeria count (a) and total bacteria count (b)

4

5

6

7

8

Before

wash

0 1 2 3 4Concentration of lactic acid (%)

Log c

fu/g s

hrimp

(MOX

)

acid stress

non-acid stress

4

5

6

7

8

Before

wash

0 1 2 3 4Concentration of lactic acid (%)

Log c

fu/g

shrim

p (TS

AYE)

acid stress

non-acid stress

Listeria count Total bacteria count(a) (b)

Mahakarnchanakul, W and Ponggunpai, V. ( in progress)

Extreme weather events− flooding, drought, monsoon, heavy storm can

impact on the transmission of disease− the availability and quality of water have been

linked to the transmission of water and foodborned disease

− the extreme weather events force evacuation of refugees into closed quarters

− extreme stress, malnutrition and limited access to medical care contribute to increased susceptibility and severity of disease

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34

Commodities found to be contaminated with mycotoxins

Mycotoxin Commodities

Aflatoxin Peanuts, corn, wheat, cottonseed, copra, nuts, various foods, milk, eggs, cheese, figs

Ochratoxin Cereal grain (wheat, barley, oats, corn), dry beans, moldy peanuts, tissue of swine, coffee, raisins, grapes, dried fruits, wine, cocoa

Patulin Mould feed, rotten apples, apple juices, wheat straw residue

Trichothecene Corn, wheat, commercial feed, mixed feeds, barley, oats

Zearalenone Corn, moldy hay, pelleted commercial feed

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Particular mycotoxin possess carcinogenic, immunosuppressive, neurotoxic, estrogenic and teratogenic activity

Moulds and mycotoxins of world-wide importance

Mould species Mycotoxins produced

Aspergillus parasiticusflavus

Aflatoxin B1 B2 G1 G2

Aflatoxin B1 B2

Fusarium

Fusarium

sporotrichiodesgraminearum

moniforme(verticillioides)

T-2 toxinDeoxynivalenol (nivalenol)Zearalenone

Fumonisin B1

Penicillium verrucosum Ochratoxin A

Aspergillus ochraceus Ochratoxin A

36

Fungus species

MycotoxinsGrowthAflatoxin Fumonisin Deoxynivalenol Ochratoxin

A

Aspergillus flavus

33 35

Fusarium verticillioides,F.proliferatum

15-30 30

F. graminearum

30 20-22

F.culmorum 26 20-25

A. ochraceus 25-30 30

Penicillium verrucosum

25 26

Optimal temperature ( degree C) for mycotoxin production and growth

37

Climate change and its influence on mould and mycotoxin contamination

− Increasing average temperature could lead to change in latitudes at which certain fungi are able to compete

− 2003, hot and dry summer in Italy have resulted in increases occurrence of A. flavus, with consequent the serious outbreak of aflatoxin contamination, uncommon in Europe

− similar report in the US− general moist, humid conditions favor mold growth would

be expected to favor mould growth− conditions adverse to the plants (drought stress, pest

attack, poor nutrient) encourages the fungal partner to develop the greater production of mycotoxins

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Fusarium toxins in Maize− The most important species among genus Fusarium

are F. verticillioides, F. proliferatum, F. sporotrichoicides, F. poae, F. graminearum, F. culmorum, F. crookwellense

− F. verticillioides is invariable present in maize, after accompanied by F. culmorum or F. graminearum

− F. graminearum was considered to be more virulent plant pathogen, tends to predominate in the warmer temperature region (25-28 oC) with F. culmorum more common in the cooler regions

− Strains of F. graminearum produce either deoxynivalenol (DON) or nivalenol (NIV) and Zearalenone (ZEA) while F. culmorum produce only DON and ZEA

39

Fusarium toxins in Maize− As a series of warm European summers the occurrence

of F. culmorum is replace by F. graminearum, the species that is more virulent plant pathogen and perhaps a shift to NIV/ZEA pattern from DON/ZEA pattern in Europe and Asia.

− FM in maize occurrence in Southern and east Africa is correlated to drought stress and dry season

− Because F. verticillioides is favored at high temperature, warming trend will cause this fungus predominate the other maize-borne Fusarium species shifting to higher latitudes

− We expect to find more FM and MON in drought stress maize

40

Aflatoxins Semi-arid to arid and drought conditions in tropical countries

are associated with contamination Normally developing crops are very resistant to infection by

A. flavus and subsequent aflatoxin contamination, unless environmental conditions favour fungal growth and crop susceptibility

which are wounding by insects, birds, mechanical process or the stress of hot dry condition

climate directly influences host susceptibility pistachios develop hull cracking “early split” maize kernel integrity Peanut exposed to high temperature during pod

maturation and rain on windrows changing weather patterns can influence irrigation

requirements, crop rotations, optimal crop timing41

Ochratoxin A and Grapes wine samples from 11 vineyards from winemaking

regions in North and South of the Portugal during 2001-2003 were assessed for ochratoxin A and fungi

significant differences were observed in ochratoxin A content of grapes between 2002-3 which may relate to temperature

Temperature and relative humidity had significant influences on infection and mycotoxin concentration

The amount of ochratoxin A detected at 30 oC was higher than at 20 oC, the highest relative humidity (100%) lead to maximum amounts of ochratoxins

42

Climate change effects on water and food supplies

declining crop productivity, animal and fisheries productivity which increase world food insecurity

drought could reduce crop yields, mycotoxin production and water supplier , thus increased risks of food-borne illnesses

Warmer temperature promote the risk of cholera which could be increased as coastal and estuarine water warm

heavy rainfall are associated with increased risks of protozoa and bacterial outbreaks

Warmer temperature and heavy rainfall are associated with increased risks of mycotoxins contamination in food and feed

43

Thank you