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Ocean Modeling Network & the Virtual OceanOcean Modeling Network & the Virtual Ocean

YI CHAO(Yi.Chao@jpl.nasa.gov; 818-354-8168)

Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of TechnologyPasadena, California

October 18, 2007

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Ocean Models defined in my talk

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Modeling should be an essential component of OOI

• Model can be used to

– Fill the data gap: ocean will be always under-sampled (much more so than the atmosphere)

• Model can be used to – Forecast into the future: observation

can only tell what happens today– Weather forecast as a success story for

the atmospheric sciences

• Model can also be used to test hypothesis, diagnostic analysis, close the budget, dT/dt = A ● t + B – C * D / E

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Linking Physics, Biology, Marine Ecosystem with Marine Mammals

Enabled by CI

Natural Variability(e.g., El Nino)

Climate Change(e.g., Global Warming)

Local Wind ChangeOcean Circulation

Upwelling

ConvergenceDivergence

Nutrient Supply:Nitrate

PhosphateSilicate

Iron

PhytoplanktonZooplankton

Population ChangeFishery Collapse

Endangered Species

Migration Behavior

Diving Patterns

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DataInput

Ocean Modeling Services

Synthesis Products

User CommunityEducation

Public Awareness

Observatories(global, regional

& coastal)

ObservationNetworkDesign(OSSEs)

Integrating Data and Model for Science/Applications

Feedback

Forecasting

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Virtual Ocean Observatory/Simulator

Click to see the movie

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Ocean has multiple scales: From Global to Regional and Coastal

100-km; years

Modeling network needs to integrate all three observatories

10-km; hours/days

100-km; years

1000-km, decades

Global

Coastal

Regional

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What is the problem size for the Virtual Ocean?Linking the 3-Observatory at the highest resolution

possible

360 (longitude) x 100 (1km/grid) x180 (latitude) x 100 (1km/grid) x 100 (depth) x 5 (para.) x 8 (byte) = 2.6 TB/snapshot

=(360x180x100x5x8 job/cpu) x 10000 cpu

Dedicated computers

Computers on Grids

Distributed computers

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Real-Time Ocean Forecast for Southern California

http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/SCB/index.jsp

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Core: Ocean Model & Data Assimilation SystemInitialization for Forecasting

Xt+1nowcast/analysis = Xt

forecast + δx

Min(Data-Model) δx

Time

Xtnowcast

Xt+1forecast

Xt+1nowcast

00Z 06Z(Assimilation window)

Xt+1forecast = M ● Xt

nowcast

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On-Demand Modeling: Users select their own modeling configurations, submit runs,

and analyze results all through a web portal

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Pre-deployment: Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)

Post-deployment: Observing System Experiments (OSEs) &

J = 0.5 (x-xf)T B-1 (x-xf) + 0.5 (h x-y)T R-1 (h x-y)

Time

03Z 21Z15Z09Z

Initialcondition

24-hour forecast

03Z

Xa = xf + xf

Xa

xf

48-hour forecast y: observation

x: model

6-hour assimilation cycle

6-hour real-time data processing modeling and data assimilation workflow

Observatory data

Virtual Ocean

Design, Testing and Deploy

Models

Data Assimilation

DataAnalysis

Science Questions & Drivers

~ 500 m

~3 km

Sensor &Platform

Data Synthesis: Nowcast & Data Impact

End-to-end traceability from science objectives to sensors and infrastructure

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The Virtual Ocean: from Global to Regional and Coastal