1 mobile, web, cloud and programming (with credits to dennis roberson and walt davis) february 17,...

1

Mobile, Web, CloudAnd Programming

(with credits to Dennis Roberson and Walt Davis)

February 17, 2013

Justin Y. Shi | [email protected]

2

Moment of Silence for Professor Charles Kapps

The Rev. Charles Augustus Kapps, Ph.D. quietly passed away Sundaymorning, February 10, 2013. He was at home surrounded by his family.

4

Gender of the First Computers• It was female.• This is not well-known.• But, I have the proof: In WWII, woman contributed more

to programming than man: Top Secret Roses (http://technicallyphilly.com/2010/09/22/top-secret-rosies-documentary-tells-story-of-women-computers-in-wwii)

http://technicallyphilly.com/2010/09/22/top-secret-rosies-documentary-tells-story-of-women-computers-in-wwii

http://technicallyphilly.com/2010/09/22/top-secret-rosies-documentary-tells-story-of-women-computers-in-wwii

5

World Changes According to Dave Evans*

• 6 devices per living person by 2020. (Mobile)

• Zettaflood is Coming: 1.2 Zettabytes unique data in 2011. (Web)

• 1/3 of all data will be on the cloud by 2020.

* Cisco’s Chief Futurist (this is a job title…)

6

,

, , , , , ,

BIG – Beyond Mega and Giga

Prefix Scientific English DecimalNotation

Kilo 103 Thousands 1,000Mega 106 Millions 1,000,000Giga 109 Billions 1,000,000,000Tera 1012 Trillions 1,000,000,000,000Peta 1015 Quadrillions 1,000,000,000,000,000Exa 1018 Quintillions 1,000,000,000,000,000,000Zetta 1021 Sextillions 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000Yotta 1024 Septillions 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

The Web is generating BIG numbers

7

,

, , , , , ,

BIG – Beyond Mega and Giga



The Web is generating BIG numbers

Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011

8

,

, , , , , ,

Refining BIG – Beyond Mega and Giga



The Web is redefining BIG numbers

Est 2020 Traffic = 2 ZettaBytes / MonthData that would fill 1 Billion 1 Terabyte disks

9

WEB OF CLOUDS

Facebook

Google+

Twitter

YouTubeAzure

Amazon

Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011 10

Base Chart from Twitter – September 2010

150M

April2011

12

Top 15 Internet Usage Sites 2012

http://www.ebizmba.com/articles/most-popular-websites

13

What do these mean?• Information expansion• Privacy reduction• Security challenged

• And all thanks to:

Mobile, Web and Cloud

14

Colorful Clouds• Storage cloud: dropbox, skydrive, googledocs, …• App cloud: Kindle Fire, Netflix, NewYork Times, …• Government cloud: Amazon, google, IBM and Microsoft• HPC cloud? (High Performance Computing)

15

Programming

Is the ONLY way you can exercise control over Mobile, Web and Cloud.

16

How to Programming• It is like “giving directions”• Or, like directing traffic

• Need to learn multiple languages, just like in the real world. No big deal, right?

• Your reward: Devices behave exactly the way you wanted• You are the MASTER.

17

Mobile Programming

• So you phone will truly obey you…

18

Web Programming• It is hard to separate from mobile programming (why?)

19

Cloud Programming• So you know exactly how your stuff is saved: SLA

20

Mobile Programming Special Challenges

• It can bring time, space, people and things together without effort.

• It can move with you anywhere you go.• Immediate privacy and security concerns:

• What data do you collect?• Where do you store the data?• How are you going to share the data?• What do you extract?

21

Respect the Numbers…

Look where the World is going…

23

Wireless Broadband Network Trends

• Internet and Applications Growth

• Wire-line and Wireless Traffic Growth

• Wireless Growth – Smart Phones and Beyond

• So What?

24

The Mobile Programming Pyramid

• It’s fun.• It’s useful.• It makes money for you.• It challenges your creativity.• It helps solving people’s problems.• It gives you something to brag about.• It has more potentials than desktop and servers.• It is growing.• It’s cool.

25

Mobile Broadband Overtook Fixed Broadband in 2008

Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database – March, 2010.

Fixed & Mobile Broadband Subscribers

7

429

688

99153

3071

154

282

473

276

210

344403

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mill

ion

s Mobile BB subscribers

Fixed BB subs


26

Telecom markets on the moveGrowth in ICTs, 1998-2009

Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database – March, 2010

27Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011

Growth of Mobile-only Internet Users

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Middle East & AfricaCentral & Estern EuropeJapanWestern EuropeNorth AmerciaLatin AmericaAsia

Nu

mb

er o

f U

sers

, Mill

ion

s

Year

Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011 28

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

45,000.00

File SharingInternet Video to PCInternet Video to TVWeb / DataVideo CallingOnline GamingVoIP

Mo

nth

ly T

raff

ic in

Pe

taB

yte

s

YearSource: Cisco Visual Networking Index, 2010

Growth Projections for Global Internet Traffic


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

45,000.00

File SharingInternet Video to PCInternet Video to TVWeb / DataVideo CallingOnline GamingVoIP

Growth Projections for Global Internet TrafficM

on

thly

Tra

ffic

in P

eta

By

tes

Year

The total of all forms of video (Video to TV, Video to PC, and

Video calling) is projected to account for over

90% of global consumer traffic by 2014

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index, 2010






• So What?


Cellular Subscriber Growth is Slowing

Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Facts and Figures – October 20, 2010

Smart Phones – The Growth Product for Mobile Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011


Projected Smartphone Growth

34

Mobile Internet will be 10x Desktop Internet Computing Growth Drivers Over

Time Mobile Internet

100,000

10,000 Desktop Internet

1,000 PC

100 1B+ Units / Users

10B+

Units

??? Minicomputer

10 100MM+ Units Mainframe

10MM+ Units 1

1MM+ Units Stand-Alone Wired Seamless/Cloud

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Web 3.0: Social Networking

Source: Morgan Stanley

34

35

1 12 23 34 45 56 67

Months Following Introduction

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Tota

l iT

un

es D

ow

n L

oad

s B

illi

on

s o

f U

nit

siTunes Downloads by Months Following Launch

Songs

Apps

Source: Apple Reports

Growth of Digital Content in the Clouds


36

Second quarter of 2012, by operating system.

• Android (Google Inc.) — 104.8 million units, 68.1 percent share (46.9 a year earlier)

• iOS (Apple Inc.'s iPhone) — 26.0 million units, 16.9 percent share (18.8 percent a year earlier)

• BlackBerry (Research in Motion Ltd.) — 7.4 million units, 4.8 percent share (11.5 percent a year earlier)

• Symbian (mostly used by Nokia Corp.) — 6.8 million units, 4.4 percent share (16.9 percent a year earlier)

• Windows (Microsoft Corp.) — 5.4 million units, 3.5 percent share (2.3 percent a year earlier)

• Linux — 3.5 million units, 2.3 percent share (3.0 percent a year earlier)• Others — 0.1 million units, 0.1 percent share (0.5 percent a year earlier)

Source: IDC.

Smart Phone Market Shares 2012

37

Total Global Revenue: $906 billion (2010)

410M

457M

467M

552M

530M

530M2.6B

Mobile Connections By Region

Source: Mobile Voice and Data Forecast Pack: 2010–15 © OVUM 2010


Increasing array of products with greater demand for speed

Cap

abili

ty B

an

dw

idth

Sp

ectr

um

1G Analog Network

Speech only

Late 1970s- 80s Early 1990s Late 1990s 2000s

SMS

Voice mail Caller ID

Conference Calling

Speech (digital)

2G GSM

Push-to-talk (PTT)

Customized Infotainment

Multimedia Messaging

Web Browsing

Speech, Voice mail, SMS

2.5G GPRS, EDGE

3G UMTS, WCDMA,

CDMA 2000

3D Gaming

Faster Web Browsing

Full motion Video

Speech, Voice Mail, SMS, Web Browsing, MMS, PTT

Streaming Music

3.5G EVDO Rev B, HSDPA,

DVB/DAB

Video-On-Demand

Video Conference

3D Gaming

Faster Web Browsing

Full motion Video


Streaming Music

High Speed

Video-On-Demand

Video Conference

3D Gaming

Faster Web Browsing

Full motion Video


Streaming Music

4G WiMax, LTE

Evolution of Mobile Technology


Improvement in Bits per Hertz Spectral Efficiency

40


Postpaid Subscribers with Integrated Devices

Wireless Data Growth at AT&T 5000% growth over 12 quarters!

268% CAGR

Source:” Leveraging Standards to ServeGrowing Customer Needs” presentation byHank Kafka,Vice President, Architecture, AT&T

?

41

Wireless Data Growth at AT&T

2007 2008 2009 20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

70.177.0

85.195.5

AT&T Cellular Customers

Cu

sto

mer

s in

Mill

ion

s

• From 1Q2008 until 4Q2009, there was a 30.3% shift in the number of AT&T customers with Integrated Devices – primarily iPhones

• During this same period, 18.5 million new customers were added, and the data traffic increased by a factor of 13.5 iPhone users generated ~36X more

traffic than non-integrated devices

42

Growth of Mobile Data Traffic

43

FCC conclusions from “Mobile Broadband: the Benefits of Additional Spectrum”, October 2010:

·It is likely that mobile data demand will exhaust spectrum resources in the next five years;

·A spectrum deficit approaching 300 MHz is likely by 2014

·A narrowly circumscribed estimation of the economic benefit from releasing additional spectrum … is likely to exceed $100 billion

Source: Rysavy Research, February 2010

Future Bandwidth Requirements

44





• So What?

45

• Facebook and Twitter are rapidly replacing email and texting as the primary means of electronic communications.

• From a business opportunity perspective, Social Network focused software built to run with an Android end-user device for the Asian market seems like an obvious winner!

• Similarly, investments in companies with Internet / Smart Phone based Social Networking applications should be (or at least were) great investments and job opportunities.

Obvious

46

• Smart Phones and Tablets are rapidly replacing Laptops and Deskside Computers as the primary means of access to the Internet. Need to focus on these platforms.

• The world is becoming more transparent. You can run, but not hide.

•Mobile devices must rely on the web that must rely on the cloud for sustainable operations.

Less Obvious

47

Even Less Obvious• The vast amount of saved information offers enormous opportunities to better understand the dynamics of political, economic and technological trends.

•Big data applications are a really important opportunity given the data that is being generated and shared

• Unintended consequence (information security) is a huge issue. Need for Computer Scientists to work with other disciplines to meet the new opportunities.

48

Computer Science Challenges

• Wireless mobile devices are less reliable. How can we program them to provide reliable services?

• Mobile programming platforms evolve very fast. How to teach new technologies in Universities?

• Cloud devices are cheaper. Auction-based cloud devices are the cheapest. How can we program using auction-based resources for reliable service delivery?

• Supercomputers are awesome but too expensive. Can we build supercomputer in the cloud?

• What about auction-based supercomputers?

49

Are you ready for the challenges?

50

What Your Fellow Students Did…• CIS1025: Web Programming for non-programmers• CIS2305: Mobile Programming Technologies• Apps and Maps Studios at Temple University• Growshare.net: Google API Competition runner up (42 in

the world) http://growshare.net

• Campus Safety App:

http://growshare.net/

http://cis-linux2.temple.edu:8080/FA11_2305_tuc24256/Project910/index.html

51

Questions?

Contact: Dr. Justin Y. Shi | [email protected] 52

Thank you!


Backup Slides


Wireless Communications Trends

• Wireless Growth – SmartPhones and Beyond


• 3G and 4G Technology – Approaching the Limits on Spectral Efficiency

• Capacity – the BIG Issue


Clearwire

AT&T

Verizon

LightSquared

T-Mobile

Sprint Nextel

MetroPCS Wireless

Leap Wireless

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

140

100

91

59

53

50

21

20

Spectrum Bandwidth in MHz*

Spectrum Holdings of Top U.S. Cellular Carriers

Source: FCC Data and Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2011

* Bandwidth in Top 100 U.S. Metropolitan Markets

Total = 534 MHz


Future Traffic?

• AT&T’s experience has shown that Cisco’s forecast for Cellular Data growth may be too conservative!

• Gartner has projected a 38% GAGR for Smartphones through 2015. Taken together with Cisco’s projection for 92% GAGR for cellular data traffic, increased usage by customers will drive a 54% increase.


[Source: Credit Suisse, May 2010]

58

Traffic Multiplying Effect of High-end Devices



Source: “Digital Dividend: Potentials and Limitations of Mobile Broadband Access”, Helge Iliders and Peter Vary, Institute of Communication Systems and Data Processing , RWTH Aachen University, Germany, Published in Breitbandversorgung in Deutschland • 17. — 18. Marz 2010 in Berlin Paper 24

Shannon’s LimitLimits with MIMO

Spectral Efficiency is Close to Shannon’s Limit


Source: “Digital Dividend: Potentials and Limitations of Mobile Broadband Access”, Helge Iliders and Peter Vary, Institute of Communication Systems and Data Processing , RWTH Aachen University, Germany, Published in Breitbandversorgung in Deutschland • 17. — 18. Marz 2010 in Berlin Paper 24

Shannon’s LimitLimits with MIMO

Spectral Efficiency is Close to Shannon’s Limit

Significant increases in Cellular Capacity will have to come from additional spectrum, and from spectrum

re-use - i.e., pico-cells.

61

Micro-Cellular Evolution

1GAnalog

AMPS

GSM

UMTS/HSPA

LTE/WiMAX

Cap

acity

Lim

ited

Cov

erag

e Li

mite

d

cover only Small # large macro cells outdoor

Larger # macro cells; Indoor coverage w/ more power;

Some micro in dense urban

Thin macro cell overlays Dense micro cell under lays

DAS for large buildings

Microcells for outdoor; DAS & Pico for enterprise; femto

for residential

Car phones Cell phones Smartphones Universal Personal Communicator

Technology requires large # of low cost

sites

Capacity is key

Economics favors small # of macro sites

Capacity is not an issue

Traffic/User

User Density

2GDigital TDM

3GDigital CDMA

4GDigital OFDM


62

• Spectral efficiency of cellular has improved 20x

• But– users have grown 15x– usage has grown 4x– users have moved from voice to

requiring high speed data– 200x bandwidth increase

• A single cell site that supports 150,000 pops in AMPS will only support 1500 pops in 4G

• Maximum cell sizes in urban areas will shrink from 5 miles to a 300 yd radius in 4G

• Micros and Picos will predominate

1GAnalog

AMPS

Low Demand for Capacity High

2GDigital TDM

3GDigital CDMA

4GDigital OFDM

GSM

UMTS/HSPA

LTE/WiMAX

Mic

ro

Siz

e of

Cel

l Site

M

acro

Decreasing Macro Cell Coverage EffectivenessWireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011


63

Long Term 3G Evolution

Fix

ed

Walk

Veh

icle

Mobility / Range

Indoor

Pedestrian

High Speed

VehicularRural

Personal Area

VehicularUrban

Fixed urban

User data rate

10 Mbps0.1

IEEE802.16a,d

1 100

HSDPA

IEEE802.16e

Nomadic

WLAN(IEEE 802.11x)

GSMGPRS

DECT

bluetooth

3G/WCDMA

EDGE

FlashOFDM (802.20)

Wireless Technology Positioning

Source: Stand und zukünftige attraktive Arbeitsgebiete für den Lehrstuhl für Kommunikationsnetze - Prof. Dr.-Ing. Bernhard Walke

http://wimaxforum.org/news/events.asp




Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011

Mobile Data Growth is Similar to Fixed Internet Growth


“At current growth rates, Internet traffic will increase by

a factor of 1000 or three orders of magnitude in roughly

20 years. It will be challenging for transmission and

routing / switching systems to keep pace with this level

of growth without requiring prohibitively large increases

in network cost and power consumption.”

“MEETING THE BANDWIDTH DEMAND CHALLENGE:TECHNOLOGIES AND NETWORK ARCHITECTURAL OPTIONS” IEEE Communications Magazine • January 2010 Editorial

Impact of Internet Traffic Growth

68

Total Global Revenue: $906 billion (2010)

$203B

$59B

$68B

$54B

$203B

$52B$267B

Mobile Revenue By Region

Source: Mobile Voice and Data Forecast Pack: 2010–15 © OVUM 2010


69

Growth of social networking services - TwitterWireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010

70

Number of Internet Users

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

1

10

100

1000

10000

Worldwide

U.S.

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f U

sers

Mill

ion

s

Source: International Telecommunications Union


12% CAGR

71

Growth of Mobile-only Internet Users

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201510

100

1,000

Nu

mb

er o

f U

sers

, Mill

ion

s

Year

Slope = 35X in 10 Years 143% per Year

GlobalUsers



Strong growth in 3G telephony

5 bn total cellular subscribers, 1 bn mobile broadband subscribers in 2010.

6.5 bn total cellular mobile subscribers, of which 43% 3G in 2014.

Source: ITU (left); Morgan Stanley

Mobile subscribers (total & 3G) 2007-2014

3'4133'909

4'5875'024

5'567 5'8426'179 6'456

0

1'000

2'000

3'000

4'000

5'000

6'000

7'000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3G OtherGlobal Mobile BB Subscribers

15

11

8

5.6

0.51.7

3.2

-

100200

300

400

500600

700

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mill

ion

s

0

24

6

8

1012

14

16

Mobile BB subscribers 3G % mobile

International Telecommunication Union – March 2010


3G Growth by RegionGlobal growth in IMT-2000 countries, 2000-2009

4 9 18 26

1922

0

9

12

14

17

21

0

2124

33

36

38

42

149

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

nb c

ount

ries

Europe

CIS

Asia-Pacific

Arab States

Americas

Africa

219

3043

70

89

109

130

Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database March 2010

1 mobile, web, cloud and programming (with credits to dennis roberson and walt davis) february 17,...

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