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MET 12 Global Warming: Lecture 10

Solutions: Adaptation

Shaun TannerOutline:Outline: Issues Impacts Adaptation methods

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ActionAction

When confronted with reports from scientists that When confronted with reports from scientists that global warming is happening and will intensify, there global warming is happening and will intensify, there are various choices of actionare various choices of action

1.1. Deny Deny the science or simply choose to do nothing.the science or simply choose to do nothing.

2.2. Mitigate Mitigate – reduce causes of global warming. – reduce causes of global warming. (reduce radiative forcing)(reduce radiative forcing)

3.3. Adapt Adapt – develop strategies to deal with impacts.– develop strategies to deal with impacts.

4.4. Do Nothing – Do Nothing – Understand science but choose Understand science but choose not to act.not to act.

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Key Findings (US Global Change Key Findings (US Global Change Research Program - 2009)Research Program - 2009)1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-

induced.2. Climate changes are underway in the United States

and are projected to grow.3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring

now and are expected to increase.10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.

What are likely impacts What are likely impacts in the future?in the future?

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Climate change impacts in the Climate change impacts in the USUS What impacts have been observed? What impacts have been observed?

– Higher nighttime and daytime temperaturesHigher nighttime and daytime temperatures

– More heavy downpoursMore heavy downpours

– Rising sea levelRising sea level

– Rapidly retreating glaciers and thawing permafrosRapidly retreating glaciers and thawing permafros

– Earlier snowmelt and alternations in river flowsEarlier snowmelt and alternations in river flows

– Lengthening growing seasonsLengthening growing seasons

These changes are projected to grow.These changes are projected to grow.

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Crop and livestock production

Threats to human health

– Heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents.

Periodic coastal flooding

Drought

Forest fires

Fresh water resources

– Western state most at risk – Sierra snowpack

Plant and animal range shifts and population changes

Ongoing and future risksOngoing and future risks

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More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected

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Adaptation strategiesAdaptation strategies

Identify communities at highest riskIdentify communities at highest risk Build infrastructure to best cope – for exampleBuild infrastructure to best cope – for example

Sea walls (Netherlands)Sea walls (Netherlands) Larger reservoirs Larger reservoirs Alternative irrigation networksAlternative irrigation networks

Modify building codesModify building codes Modify health managementModify health management

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Which of the following would be an adaptation strategy

1. Reducing emissions of CO2

2. Improving flood protection

3. Energy efficient autos

4. Designing heat tolerant crops

5. 1 and 2

6. 1 and 3

7. 2 and 3

8. 2 and 4

9. 1, 2, 3 and 4

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As a result of warming, plant species would be expected to migrate

1. North in the Southern Hemisphere

2. North in the Northern Hemisphere

3. South in the Northern Hemisphere

4. South in the Southern Hemisphere

5. To higher altitudes

6. To lower altitudes

7. 1 and 6

8. 2 and 5

If ice melt was to stop even though average temperatures continue to warm, how would sea level respond

1. Sea level would continue to rise

2. Sea level would immediately reach an equilibrium

3. Sea level would decrease