11

Keck NGAO Proposal:Keck NGAO Proposal:Management OverviewManagement Overview

Presenter:Presenter:P. WizinowichP. Wizinowich

SSC Meeting SSC Meeting June 21, 2006June 21, 2006

22

Presentation SequencePresentation Sequence

• Development ProcessDevelopment Process

• NGAO ProjectNGAO Project• Schedule, WBS, BudgetSchedule, WBS, Budget

• System Design PhaseSystem Design Phase• Deliverables, Plan, Schedule, BudgetDeliverables, Plan, Schedule, Budget

• Management status & next stepsManagement status & next steps

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WMKO Development ProcessWMKO Development Process

NewInstrumentProposal

Science Need

DesignandDevelopment

DeliveryandCommissioning

ScienceVerification

Facility ClassOperation

End of Life -Decommissioning

SystemDesign

PreliminaryDesign

DetailedDesign

Full- scaleDevelopment

We are here

Next step

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NGAO Project: MilestonesNGAO Project: Milestones

YearYear MonthMonth MilestoneMilestone

0606 JulyJuly System design phase startsSystem design phase starts

0707 JuneJune 11stst major funding secured major funding secured

0707 SeptSept System Design ReviewSystem Design Review

0808 DecDec Preliminary Design ReviewPreliminary Design Review

1010 MarMar Detailed Design ReviewDetailed Design Review

1212 MarMar AO & LGS facility pre-ship reviewsAO & LGS facility pre-ship reviews

1212 DecDec NGS 1NGS 1stst light light

1313 JunJun LGS 1LGS 1stst light light

1313 DecDec Shared-risk science beginsShared-risk science begins

This is only a first-cut timelineThis is only a first-cut timeline

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NGAO Project: Top-level WBSNGAO Project: Top-level WBS

PW

66

NGAO Project: AO BudgetNGAO Project: AO BudgetAO Cost Estimate = $35M AO Cost Estimate = $35M $10M $10M• Estimation approach 1: Comparison to other systemsEstimation approach 1: Comparison to other systems

• Gemini-S MCAO - $18M in 03 dollars.Gemini-S MCAO - $18M in 03 dollars.• Add $7M for 2 additional lasers + 4% inflation Add $7M for 2 additional lasers + 4% inflation $29M $29M

• Gemini-S GPI - $19M + $6M reserveGemini-S GPI - $19M + $6M reserve• Add $15M for LGS & subtract $5M for instrument Add $15M for LGS & subtract $5M for instrument $35M $35M

• TMT NFIRAOS - $25 for AO & $24M for LGSTMT NFIRAOS - $25 for AO & $24M for LGS• Subtract $10M for simpler system Subtract $10M for simpler system $39M $39M

• Estimation approach 2: Bottoms-up cost estimateEstimation approach 2: Bottoms-up cost estimate

WBS SubsystemProcure

($k)Design (FTE)

Implement (FTE)

FTE ($k)

Total ($k)

1 Design & Sys Eng 50 11.9 2.5 1727 17772 AO System 7207 19.0 2280 94873 Laser System 12233 3.2 388 126214 Operations tools 0 6.7 800 8006 Telescope I&T 50 5.0 600 6507 Ops Transition 0 1.0 120 1208 Management 600 1.2 3.7 592 1192

Ops Spares (5%) 972 0 972Contingency (25%) 5035 3 10 1627 6662

Total = 26147 16 51 8134 34281

Estimation methods agree

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NGAO Project: Instrument BudgetNGAO Project: Instrument Budget• Cost Estimate = $20M Cost Estimate = $20M $4M for 1 $4M for 1stst three instruments three instruments

InstrumentInstrument ROMROM Cost AnchorCost Anchor

Near-IR ImagerNear-IR Imager $3M$3M G-S NIR imager ~ $3.5M + 1 G-S NIR imager ~ $3.5M + 1 vs 4 H2-RGvs 4 H2-RG

Visible ImagerVisible Imager $3M$3M LRIS-R upgrade ~ $1.5M; LRIS-R upgrade ~ $1.5M; camera/filters $1M; SW $0.5Mcamera/filters $1M; SW $0.5M

Deployable NIR IFUDeployable NIR IFU $14M$14M TMT IRMOS ~$42M for 10 IFU TMT IRMOS ~$42M for 10 IFU + AO; ~$1.6M/IFU for 6+ AO; ~$1.6M/IFU for 6

Near-IR IFUNear-IR IFU $7M$7M OSIRIS ~$5.5M + new OSIRIS ~$5.5M + new detectordetector

Visible IFUVisible IFU $4.5M$4.5M OSIRIS without full cryo, 4x4K OSIRIS without full cryo, 4x4K deep depletion CCD, slicerdeep depletion CCD, slicer

Thermal NIR ImagerThermal NIR Imager $3M$3M Similar to NIR, smaller but Similar to NIR, smaller but more expensive detectormore expensive detector

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System Design: ObjectivesSystem Design: Objectives• Establish design approach that meets the Establish design approach that meets the

scientific & user requirementsscientific & user requirements• Establish discipline integrated engineering plan Establish discipline integrated engineering plan

for the proposed design for the proposed design • Understand technical risks, trade-offs, performance Understand technical risks, trade-offs, performance

estimates, cost to completionestimates, cost to completion• Key deliverablesKey deliverables

• Systems Requirements DocumentSystems Requirements Document• System Design Manual System Design Manual • Systems Engineering Management PlanSystems Engineering Management Plan• Systems Design ReportSystems Design Report

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System Design: Project ScheduleSystem Design: Project Schedule

Plan based on delivery of 4 key documentsPlan based on delivery of 4 key documents

Plan includes schedule & person-hoursPlan includes schedule & person-hours

1010

System Design: Project ScheduleSystem Design: Project Schedule

System requirements need science team effortSystem requirements need science team effort• Budget includes 3 graduate students & 1 postdocBudget includes 3 graduate students & 1 postdoc

1111

System Design: Project ScheduleSystem Design: Project Schedule

System design will utilize expertise & resources at System design will utilize expertise & resources at CIT, UC & WMKOCIT, UC & WMKO

1212

System Design: Project ScheduleSystem Design: Project Schedule

System Engineering Management PlanSystem Engineering Management Plan

1313

SD: Risk Assessment & ManagementSD: Risk Assessment & Management• Detailed risk assessment spreadsheet producedDetailed risk assessment spreadsheet produced

• ~40 items identified during initial point design development~40 items identified during initial point design development• Severity & probability of each item indicated along with risk Severity & probability of each item indicated along with risk

mitigation planmitigation plan• During system design each risk area will be further During system design each risk area will be further

addressed as either part of the planned trade studies addressed as either part of the planned trade studies &/or as part of risk assessment&/or as part of risk assessment

• Risk management process includes balancing scientific Risk management process includes balancing scientific & technical performance, cost & schedule& technical performance, cost & schedule

1414

System Design: BudgetSystem Design: BudgetCost Estimate = $980kCost Estimate = $980k• Basis:Basis:

• 12400 hrs or 6.4 FTE eng/scientist * $120k/yr = $770k12400 hrs or 6.4 FTE eng/scientist * $120k/yr = $770k• 5500 hrs for 3 grad students + postdoc = $150k5500 hrs for 3 grad students + postdoc = $150k• $40k for travel + $20k for procurements $40k for travel + $20k for procurements

• Only 3% of total NGAO budget Only 3% of total NGAO budget system design phase system design phase budget may be lowbudget may be low

• Believe we have properly identified path forward & Believe we have properly identified path forward & have a clear idea of how to proceedhave a clear idea of how to proceed

• A more detailed estimate will be prepared as A more detailed estimate will be prepared as individuals identified & next level of detail added to planindividuals identified & next level of detail added to plan

1515

Management StatusManagement Status

• Observatory Directors plan to define the NGAO Observatory Directors plan to define the NGAO management structuremanagement structure

• More detailed NGAO system design phase More detailed NGAO system design phase planning awaits management structure resolutionplanning awaits management structure resolution

• NGAO ready to become a real projectNGAO ready to become a real project

1616

NGAO Project: Next StepsNGAO Project: Next Steps

NGAO is ready to become a real project:NGAO is ready to become a real project:• Ready to begin system design phaseReady to begin system design phase• The project needs the following key personnel:The project needs the following key personnel:

• Principal InvestigatorPrincipal Investigator• Project Scientist + Science TeamProject Scientist + Science Team• Project ManagerProject Manager• Systems EngineerSystems Engineer

• NGAO Project Scientist & science team lead NGAO Project Scientist & science team lead development & iteration of science requirementsdevelopment & iteration of science requirements

• Volunteer model unsustainable Volunteer model unsustainable

• Need to take advantage of expertise & resources at Need to take advantage of expertise & resources at CIT, UC & WMKO in system designCIT, UC & WMKO in system design

• Form NGAO Science Advisory Committee to provide Form NGAO Science Advisory Committee to provide high level science guidancehigh level science guidance