1

Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

2

Committee Members

• Mark Eddy – OR Social Learning Center

• Judge Tom Hart - Marion

• Donna Keddy – DHS

• David Koch – Mult Co. (on phone)

• Jeff Lichtenberg – Jefferson Co.

• Torri Lynn – Linn Co.

• Colette Peters - OYA

3

• Introductions• Committee Business – Chairperson• Roundtable – Possible forecast issues, Juvenile justice

trends• Background – DOC, PSR, DCC (discretionary)

Populations• Demand Forecast

– Options• Close Custody Populations• Prior, Preliminary Forecast• Statistical Summary

Next Meeting:Wednesday September 1st, 1:30 BAM Conference Room

4

Background

• Close Custody Groups:– Adult Court Beds – “DOC”– Public Safety Reserve Beds – “PSR”– Discretionary Close Custody – “DCC” (DBA)

• DOC and PSR: direct forecasts.

• DCC forecast is for bed “demand”.

• Committee defines “current demand”

• Objective measure is desirable

5

Demand Forecast

• April 2010 forecast– Continuation of past approach– Based on info from Referrals (Abuse?, JCP?)– Index applied to demand used for April 2009 forecast– Provide “Level of Service” indices?

• Discuss options (different approach)– Lack maturity – better to wait– Availability of forecaster resource– Algorithmic / Purely Objective– “Level of Service” indices– County Resource Levels (David)

6

Demand Forecast

• April 2010 Forecast

• DCC bed demand of 550 in early 2009

• Index approach 2009 to 2010 and forecast– Simple index graphs (# felonies)

• Reduction to around 500

• Question assumption of future demand increase

7

DemandFelony Referrals per Month - Year 1996 through 2009

DCC Population

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1996

01

1997

01

1998

01

1999

01

2000

01

2001

01

2002

01

2003

01

2004

01

2005

01

2006

01

2007

01

2008

01

2009

01

Ref

erra

ls

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Bed

s

C Felony A/B Felony DCC Population

8

DemandFelony Referrals per Month - Year 2007 through 2009

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007

01

2008

01

2009

01

C Felony A/B Felony Linear (A/B Felony) Linear (C Felony)

9

Close Custody – DCC, DOC, PSR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan

19

96

Jan

19

97

Jan

19

98

Jan

19

99

Jan

20

00

Jan

20

01

Jan

20

02

Jan

20

03

Jan

20

04

Jan

20

05

Jan

20

06

Jan

20

07

Jan

20

08

Jan

20

09

DCC DOC PSR

10

Close Custody – DCC, DOC, PSR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700Ja

n 2

00

7

Jan

20

08

Jan

20

09

DCC DOC PSR

11

Forecasts – DCC, DOC, PSR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900Ja

n 2

00

7

Jan

20

08

Jan

20

09

Jan

20

10

Jan

20

11

Jan

20

12

Jan

20

13

DCC DOC PSR

Index Adjusted to Reference=550 in Early 2009

Prior DCC Forecast

Preliminary DCC Forecast

DOC and PSR – Essentially Unchanged

12

Demand Forecast Option One

• Based on Referral, JCP, Abuse information

• Indices for Serious, Moderate, Low

• Examples, Number in DCC over time

• Committee input on factors– What matters for “demand”

• OYA or Committee justify appropriate connection to beds

13

Demand Forecast Option Two

• Based on above Plus County/Community treatment availability

• “ascertain relationship between youth’s risk and access to services”

• Aggregate criminality in excess of available service?

• OYA vs overall need?

• Complex

14

Demand – Bottom Line

• Absolute measure does not exist• Index measures:

– Can quantify youth characteristics – Can compare to available services– Can quantify entry/stay from history– Can compare now relative to past

• Interpretation of Index– Subjectivity connecting index

measures to number of beds.

15

Other Forecast Issues

• Include Low, Mid, High indices (if possible)– Input on factors?

• Planned update to community forecast

• Unlikely to change

• Provide with regular forecast

• Appendix or something – thoughts?

16

Prison Intakes by AgePrison Intake Age by Year

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Over 30

26-30

22-25

20-21

17-19

17

Prison Intakes by AgePrison Intake Age by Year

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

22-25

20-21

17-19

18

Statistical SummariesDecade 2000

• Referrals (felony, misdemeanor, violation, other)

• Rate shows stronger decline • Felony Referral Graphs

– A/B/C and Person/Other

Year Amount of Reduction

2000 2009 Number Percent Annual Percent

Felonies 8,395 4,468 3,927 47% 6.8%

Misdemeanors 21,664 15,369 6,295 29% 3.7%

Violations 23,381 15,433 7,948 34% 4.5%

Total 53,440 35,270 18,170 34% 4.5%

19

Statistical SummariesDecade 2000

Felony Referrals by Year and Class

2,335 2,054 1,724 1,751 1,696 1,432 1,428 1,333 1,183 1,086

953865

815 770 848763 823 796 687 639

5,100

4,6464,460 4,249 4,033

4,137 3,813 3,8883,333

2,741

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009

C

B

A

20

Statistical SummariesDecade 2000

• Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other

2,239 2,171 2,136 2,135 2,152 2,150 1,989 1,968 1,787 1,576

6,1565,395

4,863 4,635 4,429 4,1854,076 4,053

3,4212,892

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009

Person Related Other

21

Statistical SummariesDecade 2000

Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other

2,239 2,171 2,136 2,135 2,152 2,150 1,989 1,968 1,787 1,576

6,1565,395

4,863 4,635 4,429 4,1854,076 4,053

3,4212,892

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009

Person Related Other

Person Related: Sex Offense Assault Homicide Related Weapons Robbery Person Other

Other: Arson Burglary Theft Criminal Mischief Substance/Alcohol Other

53% Drop

30% Drop

22

Statistical SummariesDecade 2000

Felony Referrals -- Race and Type

African7%

Hispani12%

Other6%

White75%

African6%

Hispani18%

Other7%

White69%

African11%

Hispani13%

Other7%

White69%

African13%

Hispani26%

Other9%

White52%

2000 2009

Other

Person Related

23

Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons

• Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement• http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/asp/State_Facility_Operation.asp

• Number of committed juveniles – total• Includes state, local, public, private

• Calculated Rate: number per 100,000• Using ages 9-17 for total population• http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/ezapop/asp/comparison_selection.asp

• Rates and change in rates: 1999 and 2006“Includes juveniles in placement in the facility as part of a court-ordered disposition. Committed juveniles may have

been adjudicated and disposed in juvenile court or convicted and sentenced in criminal court.”

Sickmund, Melissa, Sladky, T.J., and Kang, Wei. (2008) "Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement Databook."

Online. Available: http://www.ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/

24

Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons

• Rate per 100,000 – Year 1999

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ver

mon

tH

awai

iW

est

Virg

inia

New

Mis

sour

iM

aryl

and

Mas

sach

uset

tsN

orth

Car

olin

aC

onne

ctic

utM

aine

New

Jer

sey

Neb

rask

aM

onta

naId

aho

Mis

siss

ippi

Okl

ahom

aN

ew Y

ork

Ark

ansa

sIll

inoi

sK

entu

cky

Pen

nsyl

vani

aG

eorg

iaD

elaw

are

Dis

tric

t of

Was

hing

ton

Min

neso

taA

laba

ma

Ten

ness

eeIo

wa

Nor

th D

akot

aC

olor

ado

Uta

hN

evad

aW

isco

nsin

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Ariz

ona

Ohi

oT

exas

Rho

de I

slan

dV

irgin

iaK

ansa

sM

ichi

gan

Indi

ana

New

Mex

ico

Flo

rida

Cal

iforn

iaS

outh

Car

olin

aO

rego

nA

lask

aLo

uisi

ana

Wyo

min

gS

outh

Dak

ota

213

311

25

Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons

• Rate per 100,000 – Year 2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ver

mon

tM

issi

ssip

piH

awai

iC

onne

ctic

utM

aryl

and

Nor

th C

arol

ina

New

Jer

sey

Mas

sach

uset

tsN

ew H

amps

hire

Mai

neM

isso

uri

Neb

rask

aG

eorg

iaIll

inoi

sW

ashi

ngto

nN

ew M

exic

oA

rizon

aT

enne

ssee

Okl

ahom

aN

ew Y

ork

Loui

sian

aS

outh

Car

olin

aD

istr

ict

of C

olum

bia

Wis

cons

inV

irgin

iaD

elaw

are

Mic

higa

nM

onta

naU

tah

Ken

tuck

yU

nite

d S

tate

sN

evad

aC

alifo

rnia

Min

neso

taA

rkan

sas

Idah

oO

hio

Tex

asA

lask

aW

est

Virg

inia

Kan

sas

Ala

bam

aP

enns

ylva

nia

Iow

aO

rego

nIn

dian

aR

hode

Isl

and

Flo

rida

Col

orad

oN

orth

Dak

ota

Wyo

min

gS

outh

Dak

ota

173

232

26

Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons

• Change in Rate – 1999 to 2006

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mis

siss

ippi

Loui

sian

aS

outh

Car

olin

aC

onne

ctic

utN

ew M

exic

oN

ew J

erse

yN

orth

Car

olin

aM

aryl

and

Geo

rgia

Ariz

ona

Ala

ska

Cal

iforn

iaW

ashi

ngto

nIll

inoi

sM

ichi

gan

Mas

sach

uset

tsV

irgin

iaT

enne

ssee

Ore

gon

Wis

cons

inM

aine

Neb

rask

aU

tah

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Dis

tric

t of

Col

umbi

aD

elaw

are

Nev

ada

Okl

ahom

aN

ew Y

ork

New

Ham

pshi

reV

erm

ont

Kan

sas

Mis

sour

iT

exas

Ohi

oH

awai

iM

inne

sota

Indi

ana

Ken

tuck

yF

lorid

aS

outh

Dak

ota

Mon

tana

Ark

ansa

sIo

wa

Ala

bam

aR

hode

Isl

and

Pen

nsyl

vani

aId

aho

Wyo

min

gC

olor

ado

Nor

th D

akot

aW

est

Virg

inia

-25%-19%

27

Possible Factors

• Demographics

• Current Offense

• Prior Offenses

• Previous OYA Supervision

• JCP Assessments DHS’s Abuse

28

Possible FactorsCurrent Age Felony A/B/CAge at First Referral Person OffenseGender Sex OffenseRace/Ethnic Drug OffenseCounty Weapon Offense

OYA's Severity ScoreJCP RDJCP RI N Prior Felony A/B/CJCP PF N Prior Person OffenseJCP MH N Prior Sex Offense

N Prior Drug OffenseAbuse Abandon N Prior Weapon OffenseAbuse Neglect N Prior ReferralsAbuse Threat Harm Sum Prior OYA SeverityAbuse SexAbuse Mental Prior OYA Supervision

29

Explanatory Ability

How much better than chance alone…• Demographics – 3x (race/ethnic, sex, county)• Current Offense – 3x• OYA history, JCP, Abuse history – 11x• Prior Offenses – 12x (DB: youth in state??)• Current, OYA, JCP, Abuse – 12x• Demographics, OYA, JCP, Abuse – 13x• Current, Prior, OYA, JCP, Abuse – 15x• “Everything” – 16x• ***Age*** (can’t remember)

30

DemandFelony Referrals and Demand

0

100

200

300

400

500

60019

9601

1998

01

2000

01

2002

01

2004

01

2006

01

2008

01

2010

01

2012

01

2014

01

2016

01

2018

01

Ref

erra

ls

01002003004005006007008009001,000

Bed

s

C Felony A/B Felony Prev Fcst

DCC Population Series5