1

Future Changes in Fuel Mix of Future Changes in Fuel Mix of Electricity Generation in Hong Kong Electricity Generation in Hong Kong

and Implications and Implications

ByLarry Chuen-ho Chow

Professor, Department of Geography Director, Hong Kong Energy Studies Centre

Hong Kong Baptist University

2

1. Hong Kong 2009 population 7.004 million

per capita GDP U.S. $29,401

-- Hong Kong does not produce any energy

-- 2009 Total Primary Energy Requirements (PER):

577,073 TJ (19.690 million tce)

Coal 51.9%

Oil & Natural Gas 43.2%

Nuclear Power 4.9%

3

2. Dominant Role of Electricity in HK Energy Economy

-- 2009 amount of coal, natural gas and oil products used for power generation: 389,030 Tj

-- Total amount of coal, natural gas and oil products consumed in HK: 548,780 Tj Share of power generation: 70.9%

Fuel Mix of Final Energy Requirements (%)

Coal Oil Products Electricity Towngas

--- 42.4 48.7 8.9

4

3. Maximum installed capacity 12,624 MW

Peak demand 10,153 MW

Local generation 139,420 Tj

Imports 41,725 Tj

Exports 13,432 Tj

Net Imports 28,293 Tj

Local consumption 149,366 Tj

Net imports as share of local consumption 20.3%

Sectoral Consumption of Electricity (%)

Domestic Commercial Industrial

26.1% 66.4% 7.5%

5

4. Six Major Types of GHG

1. CO2 most important

2. CH4

3. NOX

4.-6. Synthetic Gases like HFC

6

5.GHG Emissions by Sector, 2008

7

6. Reduction in GHG Emissions, 2005-2020

8

7. Fuel Mix for Power Generation (%)

2009 2020

Coal 54 <10

Natural Gas 23 40

Nuclear 23 50

Renewable Energy -- 3-4

9

8. Two power companies in Hong Kong

CLP

Hong Kong Electric

Governed by a scheme of control for 10 years up to 2018

-- permitted return based on 9.99% of net fixed assets

-- 11.0% for investments in renewable energy

10

9. Current Prices of Electricity (cents/kwh)

Nuclear Coal-fired Gas-fired

50 40-60 70-90

11

10. Factors Affecting Future Electricity Tariff

A. Future Price of Different Fuels

-- Nuclear expected to be cheaper than gas-fired power

-- Price of natural gas expected to rise and be volatile

B. Investments in new power plants and other infrastructures

-- New combined cycle plants

-- Transmission facilities

-- LNG terminal in Guangdong (and nuclear power plant ?)

12

11. Impacts on Energy Security

A. Security of nuclear power supplyi) Inability to store electricityii) Dedicated transmission line to Hong

Kong

B. How much generation capacity to be maintained in Hong Kong

C. Natural gas supply: No problem

13

12. Use of Nuclear Power in World 2010 (Jan) 436 reactors in 30 states

-- Total installed capacity: 372 000MW

-- Provided 15% of world electricity

3/4 electricity nuclear: France

1/2 electricity nuclear: Belgium, Sweden

1/3 electricity nuclear: Finland, Germany, S. Korea, Switzerland

1/4 electricity nuclear: Japan

1/5 electricity nuclear: Russia, Spain, USA

14

12. Use of Nuclear Power in World (cont’)

53 reactors under construction

≈14% present installed capacity

141 reactors in planning stage

≈ 41% present installed capacity

15

13. Use of Nuclear Power in HK Daya Bay Plant

2 reactors plus Conghua pumped storage plant

-- total capacity 1968 MW

-- started in 1994

-- produced 14 billion kwh per year, 70% supplied to HK

16

14. Nuclear: No Air Pollution & GHG Use of nuclear from Daya Bay reduced emission of

i) 7.5 million tons of CO2

ii) tens of thousand tons of SOx & NOx

iii) hundreds of tons of particulates

17

Year Total GHG emissions(kilotonnes CO2-e)

Per capita emissions(tonnes CO2-e)

Carbon Intensity (kg CO2-e per HKD GDP)

1990 35 300 6.2 0.044

1991 38 800 6.7 0.046

1992 43 000 7.4 0.048

1993 43 400 7.4 0.046

1994 35 900 5.9 0.036

1995 36 900 6.0 0.036

1996 35 600 5.5 0.033

1997 34 100 5.3 0.030

1998 35 500 5.4 0.033

1999 33 300 5.0 0.031

2000 34 600 5.2 0.029

2001 34 700 5.2 0.029

2002 36 200 5.4 0.030

2003 39 600 5.9 0.032

2004 39 800 5.9 0.030

2005 42 000 6.2 0.029

2006 42 300 6.2 0.027

2007 43 300 6.3 0.026

2008 42 000 6.0 0.025

15.Past GHG Emissions and Carbon Intensity, 1990-2008

18

16. Resurgence in Use of Nuclear Since 1990s

Concern about Global Warming

USA: New Plants began to be ordered since Three-Mile-Island Accident

U.K.: Building new plants

Germany: Decided to extend life of existing ones

19

17. Safety of Nuclear Power

Apart from Windscale, Three-mile-Island & Chernobyl, no serious accidents

Exceptionally stringent operational procedures & well trained staff

Each important control has a back-up system

Strong concrete structure Pressure vessel in stainless steel

20

18. Costs of Nuclear Power Affected by many factors i) safety coefficient needed

ii) interest costs

iii) insurance costs

iv) waste disposal costs

v) decommissioning costs

vi) price of uranium

21

END