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Development of Common Assumptions Common Model

Package for the CALFED Surface Storage Investigations

Presentation To:California Water and Environmental Modeling

Forumby

Brian Van Lienden and Robert Leaf, CH2M HILLFebruary 26, 2007

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Presentation Outline Common Assumptions Background and Accomplishments

Overview of Common Model Package Development

Common Model Package Review Process

The Future of Common Assumptions

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Common Assumptions Background CALFED

• To “develop a long-term comprehensive plan that will restore ecological health and improve water management for beneficial uses of the Bay-Delta system”

• 2000 CALFED ROD

Surface Storage Investigations (component of CALFED)

• Shasta Lake Water Resources Investigation (SLWRI)

• North-of-the-Delta Off-stream Storage Investigation (NODOS)

• In-Delta Storage Investigation (IDS)

• Los Vaqueros Enlargement Investigation (LVE)

• Upper San Joaquin River Basin Storage Investigation (USJRBSI)

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Common Assumptions Background Common assumptions was originally developed to help the surface

storage projects perform feasibility studies with these purposes in mind:

• Comply with CEQA, NEPA, P&Gs, CWA/404,ESA, etc.

• Complete necessary studies and reports

Common Assumptions Objectives:

• Provide a framework for a defensible basis for collaborative decision making regarding surface storage investigations

• Improve consistency in application of overarching policy decisions

• Identify common water facilities, operations, management, and regulations

• Develop and refine a common analytical framework including tools and methods for integrated hydrologic and economic analyses

• Support application of common policy and analytical framework and ensure quality control

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Common Assumptions AccomplishmentsFacilitated Policy Decisions

Established important dates and timelines

Identified likely future projects/programs in 2030

Developed Analytical Framework

Common Model Package

Application protocols

Economic analysis methods and protocols

Characterized and Quantified Water Management Actions

Urban water use conservation

Agricultural water use efficiency

Recycling and desalination

Groundwater storage for conjunctive management

Water transfers

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Common Model Package (CMP) DescriptionConsists of a set of analytical tools that can be

operated in an integrated manner to perform hydrologic and economic analyses

Provides for consistency in application of policy decisions and assumptions about facilities, operations, management, and regulations

Supports application and accessibility of analytical tools and enhances quality control

Provides a basis for the common reporting of results between different projects

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CMP Goals

All Surface Storage Investigations to use both existing (CEQA) and future (NEPA) conditions for Feasibility Studies

Provide cumulative, incremental, and sensitivity analysis capabilities for all surface storage projects

Incorporate other characterization and quantification of other CALFED Water Management actions in analyses

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CMP Development History

CMP development began in June 2004 using the OCAP model suite

CMP Version 6 core CALSIM II component released June 6, 2006; has been in limited use (research and investigatory analyses)

Latest CMP Version 8 in use by more than six investigations (surface storage, OCAP, and others), and use is expanding

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Conceptual Structure of the CMP

Model

MetricMetricMetric

Inputs

Data

Data

Data

Data

Data

Data

Assumptions InputsInputs

Protocol

Model

ModelModel

MetricMetricMetric

MetricMetricMetric

Model

ModelModel

ModelModel

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Water resource system (CALSIM II)

Economics (LCPSIM, CVPM)

Delta flow and salinity (DSM2)

Temperature and salmonSacramento River (Keswick to Red Bluff)(SRWQM_RBDD, SalMod)

Trinity, Feather and American Rivers(Reclamation mortality model)

Power generation and useCVP (LTGen)

SWP (SWP_Power)

Component models included in current CMP

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CMP Integrated Solution Process

CALSIM II

LCPSIM

SRWQM_RBDD

DSM2

M&I WQ econ

CVPM

SalMod

LTGEN/SWP Power

Reclamation Mortality

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CMP AccomplishmentsPeriod of Record and Level of Development

82-year simulation period of record (1922–2003)

2030 level of development (Sacramento Valley at 2020 level of development)

2004 level of development nearly complete (LCPSIMinputs pending)

Delta Delta flow-salinity relationships; updated artificial neural networks (ANNs)

DSM2 82-year simulation capability (was 16-year)

Martinez boundary condition redeveloped; adjusted astronomical tide normalized for historic sea level rise (normalized to November 1993)

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CMP AccomplishmentsNew Subsystems

Incorporated new San Joaquin River module (with 2004 and 2030 levels of development)

Colusa Basin network and hydrology redeveloped (using 2004 and 2020 levels of development)

Delta Export OperationsRefined south-of-Delta SWP operations (variable delivery patterns)

Development and implementation of water transfers operations (integrated CALSIM II–LCPSIM analysis)

Incorporation of logic consistent with latest EWA model development (QC review pending)

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CMP AccomplishmentsEconomics

Implementation of LCPSIM Review Team (Common Assumptions Economics Workgroup) recommendations

Implementation of Economics Workgroup CVPM recommendations

IntegrationCALSIM II/LCPSIM integrated solution capability (interface and protocol)

Enhanced one-directional linkage CALSIM II to CVPM

Established protocols and clarified/corrected linkages for all models

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CMP AccomplishmentsSurface Storage

Incorporated storage project components: NODOS, SLWRI, LVE Future No Project – LVE w/project pending

Other Comprehensive documentation and review of all surface water rights, contracts, and other water delivery specifications

Restructuring of CALSIM II to allow for more flexible and efficient analysis

Extensive quality control effort resulting in hundreds of corrections and clarifications

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CMP Review ProcessDecember 6 internal memo requested joint Reclamation and DWR review of CMP Version 8

Common Assumptions team is supporting agencies in the review process

Review is an essential part of the quality control process

Agencies’ acceptance at end of review process will result in CMP Version 9

Use of CMP does not need to wait for conclusion of the review process – Version 8 is already being used

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Schedule for CMP Review WorkshopsJan. 8: Introduce CMP and kick off Review

Workshops (for study managers and teams)Jan. 18: Analytical framework, Delta requirements and operations, new subsystems (for technical teams)Feb. 15: Economics Workgroup activities (for study managers and teams)Feb. 22: Model integration, water transfers and related model improvements (for technical teams)Mar. 8: Surface storage projects, EWA logic, temperature, salmon, power (for technical teams)Mar 22: TBD

Note: Additional workshops will be scheduled as needed.

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CMP Next StepsThe latest CMP Version 8 is in use

Review and acceptance process is underway

A large amount of information is available, but documentation still under development

The next CMP update, Version 9, should be available in spring 2007

Upon completion, the desire is for Version 9 of the CMP to become the new benchmark

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The Future of Common AssumptionsThe goal is to wrap up CMP Version 9

and all supporting documentation by the end of the Spring

At that point, the emphasis will shift to the surface storage project teams as they use the CMP for their feasibility analyses

The Common Assumptions Team will continue to help by:

Supporting the project teams as they apply the CMP

Performing cumulative and incremental analyses