1 collective security in space: an australian perspective talk to collective security in space...
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Collective Security in Space:Collective Security in Space:An Australian PerspectiveAn Australian Perspective
Talk to Collective Security in Space ConferenceTalk to Collective Security in Space ConferenceTokyo, JapanTokyo, Japan23 April 200723 April 2007
Brett BiddingtonBrett Biddington
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this talk are personal and Disclaimer: Views expressed in this talk are personal and are neither endorsed by nor commit Cisco to any liability orare neither endorsed by nor commit Cisco to any liability or
obligation.obligation.
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Introducing meIntroducing me
1970s1970s BA(Hons) politics (LaTrobe Uni)BA(Hons) politics (LaTrobe Uni)diplomatdiplomatuniversity lectureruniversity lecturer
1980-2002 – RAAF1980-2002 – RAAFintelligenceintelligencesecuritysecuritycapability development ($2bn portfolio of projects capability development ($2bn portfolio of projects
with with associated R&D sponsorship)associated R&D sponsorship)
Nov 2002Nov 2002 joined Cisco – “internet in joined Cisco – “internet in space”space”
1 of a team of 15 world-wide1 of a team of 15 world-wideCanberra-basedCanberra-based
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AgendaAgenda
IntroductionIntroduction A lesson from World War 2A lesson from World War 2 Some requisites for cooperationSome requisites for cooperation Australia’s involvement in SpaceAustralia’s involvement in Space 4 Key questions4 Key questions The limits of influence: Australia and the Chinese TestThe limits of influence: Australia and the Chinese Test A breeze for changeA breeze for change
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A lesson from WW 2A lesson from WW 2
Tatuo Kawai, Japanese Ambassador to Australia, Mar 1941 – Aug 1942Tatuo Kawai, Japanese Ambassador to Australia, Mar 1941 – Aug 1942
John Curtin, Prime Minister of Australia, 1941 – 1945John Curtin, Prime Minister of Australia, 1941 – 1945
Basic understandings:Basic understandings:
1.1. That Australia was a sovereign nation that needed to shed its That Australia was a sovereign nation that needed to shed its remaining colonial vestigesremaining colonial vestiges
2.2. That Australia’s long term security lay with a close and enduring That Australia’s long term security lay with a close and enduring relationship with the United States as the emergent great power in the relationship with the United States as the emergent great power in the PacificPacific
3.3. That Japan, had legitimate cause for complaint because it had That Japan, had legitimate cause for complaint because it had denied access to raw materials and markets.denied access to raw materials and markets.
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TimelineTimeline
7 Dec 19417 Dec 1941 Pearl HarbourPearl Harbour 15 Feb 194215 Feb 1942 Fall of SingaporeFall of Singapore 19 Feb 194219 Feb 1942 Darwin was bombed (for the first of 64 Darwin was bombed (for the first of 64
times)times) 7-10 May 19427-10 May 1942 Battle of the Coral SeaBattle of the Coral Sea 31 May 194231 May 1942 Midget submarines attack Midget submarines attack
Sydney Harbour (3 boats, all lost, 4 Sydney Harbour (3 boats, all lost, 4 bodies recovered, the remaining boat bodies recovered, the remaining boat was recently discovered north of was recently discovered north of Sydney and is now a designated War Sydney and is now a designated War Grave)Grave)
4 June4 June Battle of MidwayBattle of Midway
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QuestionQuestion
What has any of this to do with What has any of this to do with Asian Perspectives on Asian Perspectives on Acceptable Approaches to Collective Security in Acceptable Approaches to Collective Security in
Space?Space?
Answer: Quite a lot!Answer: Quite a lot!
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Some RequisitesSome Requisites institutions to provide continuity and contextinstitutions to provide continuity and context
competent people, who have a healthy respect for each other, and who have a competent people, who have a healthy respect for each other, and who have a sound appreciation of the other’s point of viewsound appreciation of the other’s point of view
opportunities for these people to meet in order that they can share experiences, talk opportunities for these people to meet in order that they can share experiences, talk about the mundane and build trustabout the mundane and build trust
mechanisms for operational cooperation – ‘rules of the road’ (not unlike the Vienna mechanisms for operational cooperation – ‘rules of the road’ (not unlike the Vienna or Hague conventions) that are actually put into effector Hague conventions) that are actually put into effect
real determination by national leaders, beyond the rhetoric, to collaborate and real determination by national leaders, beyond the rhetoric, to collaborate and cooperate and the flexibility to do socooperate and the flexibility to do so
real projects which transcend national and other institutional boundaries and which real projects which transcend national and other institutional boundaries and which
provide opportunities to build friendships, trust and related collaborative behaviours.provide opportunities to build friendships, trust and related collaborative behaviours.
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Four Emerging Policy ChallengesFour Emerging Policy Challenges
1.1. militarisation and weaponisationmilitarisation and weaponisation
2.2. spectrum allocation and managementspectrum allocation and management
3.3. service guarantees in an imperfect market for highly service guarantees in an imperfect market for highly assured access to space utilities – including earth assured access to space utilities – including earth observation, communications, navigation and timing observation, communications, navigation and timing servicesservices
4.4. monitoring and managing the near space monitoring and managing the near space environmentenvironment
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Space: Implicit in Australian National Strategy (1)Space: Implicit in Australian National Strategy (1)
Late 40s – 60sLate 40s – 60s
WoomeraWoomera UK and European launch programsUK and European launch programs
nuclear testsnuclear tests
1960s programs terminated1960s programs terminated
1960s – present1960s – present host US and other nation ground stationshost US and other nation ground stations
Australia contributes ~ 2% of the world’s wealth – at best a small playerAustralia contributes ~ 2% of the world’s wealth – at best a small player
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Space: Implicit in Australian National Strategy (2)Space: Implicit in Australian National Strategy (2)
Australia has gained for the price of wise diplomacy, peppercorn rentals and modest investment has gained enormous benefits from space.Australia has gained for the price of wise diplomacy, peppercorn rentals and modest investment has gained enormous benefits from space.
Time
DriverREAL ESTATE
NEW EQUITIES – PILOT??, satellites??,Other??
Personal view: Australia needs to and soon will invest in new equities
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Militarisation and weaponisationMilitarisation and weaponisation
Australia is a player – like it or notAustralia is a player – like it or not
missile defence – 3 air warfare destroyersmissile defence – 3 air warfare destroyers
over-the-horizon radarover-the-horizon radar
host of US facilitieshost of US facilities
Commerce
Security
Canberra - today ‘cake and eat it too approach’
Beijing
Tokyo
Washington
Cooperation/competition??
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Spectrum Allocation and ManagementSpectrum Allocation and Management
Global allocations:Global allocations: space communications, air traffic management, space communications, air traffic management, marine, global SAR – very difficultmarine, global SAR – very difficult
Governments:Governments: need to balance needs for national security vs need to balance needs for national security vs desire desire to make money by licensing spectrumto make money by licensing spectrum
ITU:ITU: venerable institution but too slowvenerable institution but too slow
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Service Guarantees for Space UtilitiesService Guarantees for Space Utilities
Militarisation/weaponisation question may be the most urgentMilitarisation/weaponisation question may be the most urgent
BUTBUT
Resolving this question may be the Resolving this question may be the most important – and may – and may provide the common cause needed by which the harder national provide the common cause needed by which the harder national security issues may be addressed.security issues may be addressed.
Climate change and global warming affects us all – eg. more extreme Climate change and global warming affects us all – eg. more extreme weather events, rising sea levels essential concerns to all nations in SE weather events, rising sea levels essential concerns to all nations in SE Asia and OceaniaAsia and Oceania
The Antarctic Treaty and wider Antarctic management regime may The Antarctic Treaty and wider Antarctic management regime may provide a useful model.provide a useful model.
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Monitoring and managing the near space Monitoring and managing the near space environmentenvironment
Space surveillance and space situational awareness – an area ripe for Space surveillance and space situational awareness – an area ripe for international cooperationinternational cooperation
Common baseline from which all space faring nations can proceed with Common baseline from which all space faring nations can proceed with confidenceconfidence
PILOT project at Dome C in Antarctica – possibility to make a low cost PILOT project at Dome C in Antarctica – possibility to make a low cost regional contributionregional contribution (dual use optical telescope)(dual use optical telescope)
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The Australian response to the Chinese ASAT testThe Australian response to the Chinese ASAT test
Some interesting questionsSome interesting questions
1.1. Why did Australia call in the Ambassador at all?Why did Australia call in the Ambassador at all?
2.2. What did Australia seek to achieve by calling in the Ambassador? What did Australia seek to achieve by calling in the Ambassador?
3.3. How did Australia propose to measure the impact or the effect of its How did Australia propose to measure the impact or the effect of its expression of displeasure?expression of displeasure?
Turning this around, there are some further questions we might usefully askTurning this around, there are some further questions we might usefully ask
1.1. What did the Ambassador write in her account of the dressing down to What did the Ambassador write in her account of the dressing down to Beijing? Beijing?
2.2. Has Chinese policy and behaviour been influenced one iota by the Has Chinese policy and behaviour been influenced one iota by the Ambassador having been called in? If so, how? If not, why not?Ambassador having been called in? If so, how? If not, why not?
3.3. As a result of the Ambassador’s dressing down, is China more or less As a result of the Ambassador’s dressing down, is China more or less likely to conduct further ASAT tests?likely to conduct further ASAT tests?
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Breeze for ChangeBreeze for Change
Defence investmentDefence investment More peopleMore people Missile DefenceMissile Defence 4-6bn over next 10 years for space segment and apps. 4-6bn over next 10 years for space segment and apps. Network Centric WarfareNetwork Centric Warfare
Drought – 10bn water planDrought – 10bn water plan First Space Science Decadal PlanFirst Space Science Decadal Plan
Prediction – GEO and LEOs within the next decadePrediction – GEO and LEOs within the next decade
Policy and GovernancePolicy and Governance Chapman ReportChapman Report Kokoda StudyKokoda Study
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The Last WordThe Last Word
““Now only the stars are neutral”Now only the stars are neutral”
John Curtin 8 Dec 1941John Curtin 8 Dec 1941
““I’m afraid it has gone too far; the momentum is too great”.I’m afraid it has gone too far; the momentum is too great”.Tatuo Kawai Nov 1941Tatuo Kawai Nov 1941
space embraces us allspace embraces us all
