1 climate change and energy updated powerpoint show about climate change and energy sector

1

Climate Change and Energy

Updated PowerPoint show about climate change and energy sector

2

Research results of climate change

3

Global warming is due to strengthened greenhouse effect

Greenhouse effect

The Earth has a natural temperature control system. Certain atmospheric gases are critical to this system and are known as greenhouse gases. On average, about one third of the solar radiation that hits the earth is reflected back to space. The Earth's surface becomes warm and as a result emits infrared radiation. The greenhouse gases trap the infrared radiation, thus warming the atmosphere. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases create a natural greenhouse effect. However, human activities are causing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere to increase.

Source: National Geographic

4

Earth’s energy budget

Source: Nasa, Atmospheric Science Data Center

5

The six greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol:

• Carbon dioxide or CO2

• Methane or CH4

• Nitrous oxide or N2O• Perfluorocarbons or PFC compounds• Hydrofluorocarbons or HFC compounds• Sulphur hexafluoride or SF6

Other greenhouse gases:• Ozone or O3

• Bromine compounds or halogens, e.g. CF3Br• Freons or chlorofluorocarbons or CFC:s• Water vapour or H2O (g)

• Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased markedly as a result of human activities!

Strengthening of greenhouse effect is due to increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

6

Different greenhouse gases have different meaning to global warming


7

Meaning of carbon dioxide to global warming

• Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas.– The primary source of the increased

atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide results from fossil fuel use in power and heat production as well as transport.

– The change of land use provides another significant but smaller contribution.

– The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years.


8

Teollisuus20 %

Energiasektori28 %

Liikenne21 %

Maanviljely10 %

Muut4 %Kotitaloudet,

palvelut ja kauppa17 %

Lähde: EEA

Other 4 %Households

and SMEs

17 %

Power sector

28 % Idustry

20 %

Agriculture

10 %

Source: EEA

Transport

21 %

Sources of EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions

IndustryTeollisuus20 %

Energiasektori28 %

Liikenne21 %

Maanviljely10 %



Lähde: EEA

Other 4 %Households

and SMEs

17 %

Power sector

28 % Idustry

20 %

Agriculture

10 %

Source: EEA

Transport

21 %

Industry

9

The global atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has increased


10

Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases correlates with temperature

11

According to researches earth’s mean temperature has risen in the 20th and the 21st century


12

According to measurements the temperature is rising

Source: Climatic Research Unit

13

Different reconstructions of mean temperature have been published by researchers

14

Sea level is rising

Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm).The red curveshows reconstructedsea level fields since 1870.

The black curveis basedon satellite altimetry.

The blue curveshows coastal tidegauge measurements since 1950.


15

Change in volume of glaciers

Cumulative Change in Volume of Arctic Glacierssince 1960

16

The average temperature is rising but our choices make a difference

Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming


17

Effects of climate change

LikelyMore likely than notLikelyIncreased incidence ofextreme high sea level

(excludes tsunamis)

LikelyMore likely than notLikely in some regionssince 1970

Intense tropical cycloneactivity increases

LikelyMore likely than notLikely in many regionssince 1970s

Area affected by droughtsincreases

Very likelyMore likely than notLikely

Heavy precipitation events.Frequency (or proportion of

total rainfall from heavy falls)

increases over most areas

Very likelyMore likely than notLikelyWarm spells / heat waves.Frequency increases over

most land areas

Virtually certainLikely (nights)Very likely Warmer and more frequenthot days and nights over

most land areas

Virtually certainLikelyVery likely

Warmer and fewer cold days

and nights over most landareas

Likelihood of futuretrends based onprojections for 21stcentury

Likelihood of a humancontribution to observedtrend b

Likelihood that trendoccurred in late 20thcentury (typically post1960)

Phenomenon and directionof trend

LikelyMore likely than notLikelyIncreased incidence ofextreme high sea level

(excludes tsunamis)

LikelyMore likely than notLikely in some regionssince 1970

Intense tropical cycloneactivity increases

LikelyMore likely than notLikely in many regionssince 1970s

Area affected by droughtsincreases

Very likelyMore likely than notLikely

Heavy precipitation events.Frequency (or proportion of

total rainfall from heavy falls)

increases over most areas

Very likelyMore likely than notLikelyWarm spells / heat waves.Frequency increases over

most land areas

Virtually certainLikely (nights)Very likely Warmer and more frequenthot days and nights over

most land areas

Virtually certainLikelyVery likely

Warmer and fewer cold days

and nights over most landareas

Likelihood of futuretrends based onprojections for 21stcentury

Likelihood of a humancontribution to observedtrend b

Likelihood that trendoccurred in late 20thcentury (typically post1960)

Phenomenon and directionof trend


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Examples of major projected impacts on agriculture, forestry and ecosystemsVirtually certain (>99%) is, that• Increased yields in colder environments; decreased

yields in warmer environments • Increased insect outbreaksVery likely (90-99%) is, that• Increased danger of wildfire.• Damage to crops, soil erosion and inability to

cultivate land due to heavy precipitation eventsLikely (66-90%) is, that• Intense tropical cyclone activity increases damage to

trees, crops and coral reefs• Salinisation of freshwater systems due to high sea

levelSource: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

19

Examples of major projected impacts on water resourcesVirtually certain (>99%) is, that• Effects on water resources relying on snow melt and

some water suppliesVery likely (90-99%) is, that• Water quality problems, e.g., algal blooms• Adverse effects on quality of surface and

groundwater; contamination of water supply; water scarcity may be relieved

Likely (66-90%) is, that • More widespread water stress• Power outages causing disruption of public water

supply • Decreased freshwater availability due to saltwater

intrusionSource: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

20

Examples of major projected impacts on human healthVirtually certain (>99%) is, that• Reduced human mortality from decreased cold

exposureVery likely (90-99%) is, that • Increased risk of heat-related mortality• Increased risk of deaths, injuries and infectious,

respiratory and skin diseasesLikely (66-90%) is, that • Increased risk of malnutrition and water- and food

borne diseases• Intense tropical cyclone activity and floods

increase risk of deaths, injuries and diseases


21

Examples of major projected impacts on industry, settlement and society 1/2

Virtually certain (>99%) is, that • Reduced energy demand for heating • Increased demand for cooling • Declining air quality in cities • Reduced disruption to transport due to

snow and ice• Effects on winter tourism


22

Examples of major projected impacts on industry, settlement and society 2/2

Very likely (90-99%) is, that • Reduction in quality of life for people in warm areas

without appropriate housing• Disruption of settlements, commerce, transport and

societies due to floodingLikely (66-90%) is, that• Water shortages for settlements, industry and societies• Disruption by flood and high winds• Costs of coastal protection versus costs of land-use

relocation; potential for movement of populations and infrastructure


23

Impacts of climate change in Finland

• Climate will warm up in the Nordic countries and Arctic region especially in winter– Winter season will become shorter and days

with snow cover will became less usual– Period of growth will become longer

• Precipitation will increase specially in winter, but not necessarily in summer– Frequency of heavy precipitation events

increases in every season

• Coniferous forest zone moves north

Source: www.ilmastonmuutos.info, www.ilmasto.org

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Energy production and consumption

25

Total energy consumption has increased substantially in Finland

*Tähän diaan on liitettynä muistiinpanoja

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

kto

e

Source: Statistics Finland

Energy consumption in Finland 1976-2006

26

Electricity consumption has increased even more than energy consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1930 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2010 2020 2030

TWh

Stat.

Forecast

Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007

Electricity consumption in Finland 1930-2007

27

Final energy consumption by sectors in Finland 2006

Others13 %

Space heating20 %

Transport16 %

Industry51 %


28

Electricity consumption by sector in Finland 2007 (90,3 TWh)

Housing and agriculture

15,4 %

Losses3,6 %

Electric heating 10,0 %

Service18,0 %

Industry53,0 %


29

Electricity supply by energy sources in Finland 2007(90,3 TWh) Hydro power

15,5 %

Wind power0,2 %

Bio fuel10,9 %

Waste fuels0,7 %

Natural gas11,4 %

Coal14,8 %

Oil 0,4 %

Net imports13,9 %

Nuclear power24,9 %

Peat7,3 %


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Nuclear power24,9 %

Condense etc16,1 %

Net imports13,9 %

Hydro power15,5 %

Co-generation district heating

16,1 %

Wind power0,2 %

Co-generation (CHP), Industry

13,3 %Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007

Net supplies of electricity in Finland 2007 (90,3 TWh)

31

Market share of space heating, year 2006

electricity17,5 %

light fuel oil14,0 %

wood11,4 %

district heat48,3 %

other8,8 %


Market share of space heating in Finland 2006

32

Fuel consumption in production of district heat and CHP in Finland 2007

fuel energy54,8 TWh

coal25,9 %

others3,8 %

natural gas33,9 %

fuel oil4,6 %

peat20,8 %

wood, wood residues11,0 %

33

Fuel consumption in production of district heat and CHP in Finland 1976-2007

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

oil

coal

natural gas

peat

otherwood

34

Fuel shares of district heating and CHP in different areas of Finland year 2007

0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 %

Uusimaa

I tä-Uusimaa

Varsinais-Suomi

Satakunta

Kanta-Häme

Pirkanmaa

Päijät-Häme

Kymenlaakso

Etelä-Karjala

Etelä-Savo

Pohjois-Savo

Pohjois-Karjala

Keski-Suomi

Keski-Pohjanmaa

Etelä-Pohjanmaa

Pohjanmaa

Pohjois-Pohjanmaa

Kainuu

Lappi

Ahvenanmaa

Natural gas Coal Peat Wood Fuel oil Others

35

Electricity supply in the Nordic countries 2006

140 TWh43 TWh

14 %

10 TWh

73 %

27 %

394 TWh

Vesivoima

Ydinvoima

Lämpövoima

Tuulivoima ja geoterminen

79 TWh

14 %

28 %58 %

22 %51 %

24 %

3 %

86 %

9 %

46 % 44 %

1 %

1 %

98 %122 TWh

1 %

Pohjoismaat 2006

Lähde: Nordel Annual Report 2006

Thermal power

Hydro power

Nuclear powerWind and geothermal power

The Nordic countries 2006

Source: Nordel

36

Electricity consumption in the Nordic countries 2006

146 TWh

119 TWh

36 TWh

10 TWh

405 TWh

Asuminen

PalvelutMaataloustuotanto ym.

Teollisuus (sis. energiasektorin)

90 TWh

Verkostohäviöt

27 %

44 %

19 %

7 %3 %

56 %

23 %16 %

4 %

1 %

41 %

28 %19 %

4 %8 %

31 % 28 %

27 %8 %

6 %

41 %

30 %20 %

1%8 %

71 %

4 % 5 %

10 %10 %

Lähde: Nordel Annual Report 2006

Industry (including energy sector)

Agriculture

Housing

Service

Losses

Source: Nordel Annual Report 2006

37

Total gross electricity generation in Europe 2006

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000

MaltaLuxembourg

CyprusLatvia

EstoniaIcelandCroatia

LithuaniaSlovenia

IrelandSlovakiaHungaryDenmarkBulgariaPortugal

SwitzerlandGreece

RomaniaAustriaFinland

Czech RepublicBelgium

NetherlandsNorwaySwedenPolandTurkeySpain

ItalyUK

FranceGermany

GWh Source: Eurostat

38

Gross electricity generation by Fuel – EU-27 2005

Source: Eurostat, European Commission

* Pumped Storage Plants and Other Power Stations

39

Final energy consumption in Europe 2006

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

MaltaCyprusIcelandEstonia

LatviaLuxembour

LithuaniaSlovenia

CroatiaBulgariaSlovakia

IrelandDenmarkHungaryNorway

PortugalGreece

SwitzerlandRomania

CzechFinlandAustria

SwedenBelgium

NetherlandsPolandTurkey

SpainItaly

UKFrance

Germany

Source: Eurostat(ktoe)

40

Final energy consumption by fuel - EU27 2005

Source: Eurostat, European Commission

41

Final energy intensity in Europe 2006 per capita

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

TurkeyRomania

MaltaBulgaria

LithuaniaPoland

PortugalHungary

LatviaGreece

SlovakiaEstonia

SpainItaly

CyprusSlovenia

UKFrance

Czech RepublicGermanyDenmark

IrelandNetherlands

AustriaBelgiumSwedenNorwayFinlandIceland

Luxembourg

Source: EEA, Eurostat(toe per inhabitant)

42

Final energy consumption by sector – EU-27 2005

Source: Eurostat

43

Kotitaloudet ja palvelut

56 % Liikenne3 %

Teollisuus41 %

Lähde: Eurostat

Households, trades,

services, etc. 56 %

Transport

3%

Industry 41%

Source: Eurostat

Electricity consumption by sector EU-27 2005

44

Global total primary energy supply is increasing

**Asia excludes China.

Source: EEA

45

Regional shares of world’s total primary energy supply 2005


Source: EEA

46

Use of all fuels has increased globally

Source: EEA

47

Fuel shares of world’s total primary energy supply

Source: EEA

48

Increasing of electricity generation has been even faster than world’s total primary energy supply

**Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, combustible renewables & waste.

Source: EEA

49

Fuel shares ofelectricity generation 2005

**Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, combustible renewables & waste.

Source: EEA

50

Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of world’s electricity generation by regions (TWh)


Source: EEA

51

World’s electricity generation by regions in 2005


Source: EEA

52Lähde: VTT, Energia suomessa 2004

Oil Gas Coal Uranium

Over 2000 yearYears of production left

Consumption per year, 1000 Mtoe

Known and identified resources

Estimated additional resources

Difficult to utilize

Very difficult to utilize

Source: VTT, Energia Suomessa 2004

Remaining natural resources

53

Renewable Energy

54

Renewable energy sources

•Water•Biomass•Wind•Sunlight•Geothermal heat

Renewable energy technologies are directly or indirectly powered by the sun – as well as fossil fuels.

55

Biofuel10,9 %

Peat7,3 %

Waste fuels0,7 %

Nuclear power24,9 %

Natural gas11,4 %

Coal14,8 %

Oil 0,4 %

Net imports13,9 % Wind power

0,2 %

Hydro power15,5 %

Renewable energy26,6 %


Renewable energy covered more than a fourth of the electricity supply in Finland 2007

56

Renewable energy covered almost a fourth of the energy consumption in Finland 2007

Oil24,8 %

Coal13,2 %

Natural gas10,5 %

Nuclear16,9 %

Hydro and Wind Power3,5 %

Renewable24,2 %

Peat7,3 %

Net Imports of Electricity

3,1 % Wood-based fuels20,7 %

Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007Source: Statistics Finland

57

The share of renewable energy sources in primary energy

consumption increased slowly in the EU-27

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Sha

res

in p

rimar

y e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n (%

)

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

Hydro

Biomass andwaste

Source: EEA, Eurostat.

58

Renewable energy sources in the EU countries 2005

% Source: Statistics Finland

59

Peat is a slowly renewable biomass fuel• Growth of peat is bigger than use in

Finland• In Finland peat is classified as a slowly

renewable biomass fuel, because the average regrowth rate of a single peat bog is 2000-3000 years.

• Peat Industry utilizes less than one per cent of peat bogs in Finland. Energy industry utilizes 90% of harvested peat.

• Twenty-six percent of the land area of Finland is peat bog of some sort

60

Green house gases

61

EU-27 green house gas emissions in 2005

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

MaltaCyprus

LatviaLuxembour

SloveniaEstonia

LithuaniaSlovakiaDenmarkSwedenFinland

BulgariaIreland

HungaryPortugal

AustriaGreece

BelgiumCzech

RomaniaNetherlands

PolandSpain

FranceItaly

UnitedGermany

Source: EEA(Mt CO2 ekv.)

62

Carbon dioxide intensity in power generation in some European countries in 2003

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Norway

Sweden

Lithuania

Latvia

Finland

Belgium

Spain

Portugal

Netherlands

Germany

Denmark

Czech

UK

Romania

Hungary

Poland

Source: Statistics Finland g(CO2)/kWh

Annual variation of

emissions in Finland

63

Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU 1990-2005

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

600019

90

199

3

1996

1999

2002

2005

vuosi

Mt e

kv.

CO

2

EU-27 sisältäenmaankäytön jametsityksenEu-27 ilman maankäyttöäja metsitystä

EU-15 sisältäenmaankäytön jametsityksenEU-15 ilman maankäyttöäja metsitystä

Sisältää Kioton pöytäkirjassa mainitut kuusi kasvihuonekaasua.

Lähde: EEA

EU-27 including land-use change and forestry EU-27 excluding land-use change and forestry

EU-15 including land-use change and forestryEU-15 excluding land-use change and forestry

Including the six greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol

Source: EEA

Year

Mt

eq

. C

O2

64

Finnish greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2006 and the emissions target

Including the six greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol

Emission trading sector, total

CO2 from combustion, non-emission trading sector

Other GHGs than CO2 from combustion

Finland‘s target Kyoto & EU-burden sharing

Source: Finland’s National Allocation Plan for Emissions Allowances for the trading period 2008–2012

65

Greenhouse gas emissions by source in Finland in 2006


66

Teollisuus20 %

Energiasektori28 %

Liikenne21 %

Maanviljely10 %



Lähde: EEA

Other 4 %Households

and SMEs

17 %

Power sector

28 % Idustry

20 %

Agriculture

10 %

Source: EEA

Transport

21 %

Sources of EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions

67

Estimated green house gas emissions in Finland 2010 and 2025

Sähkö ja kaukolämpö

Teollisuusprosessit ja teollisuuden energia

Liikenne

Lämmitys

Muut toimialat

Muut kuin CO2-päästöt

34 %

26 %

16 %

4 %

6 %

14 %

34 %

28 %

16 %

2 %

6 %

14 %

Lähde: Suomen päästöoikeuksien jakosuunnitelma vuosille 2008-2012

2010

84,6 MtCO2-ekv./vuosi

84,3 MtCO2-ekv./vuosi

2025

Electricity and district heating

Industry

Transport

Heating

Other sectors

Green house gases excluding CO2

Source: Finland’s National Allocation Plan for Emissions

Allowances for the trading period 2008–2012

84,6 MtCO2-eq./year

84,3 MtCO2-eq./year

68

Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of world’s CO2 emissions by fuel

Mt of CO2

*** Other includes industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste.

Source: IEA

69

World’s CO2 emissions by fuel shares in 2005

Source: IEA

70

Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of world’s CO2 emissions by region

Mt of CO2

*** Asia excludes China.

Source: IEA

71

World’s regional shares of CO2 emission in 2005

*** Asia excludes China. Source: IEA

72

CO2 emissions avoided by utilization of Combined Heat and Power production

CO2-emissions in the production of district heat and cogenerated electricity

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

million t CO2

savings due to CHP

73

CO2 emissions avoided by renewable and nuclear power

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

MtCO2

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: Finnish Energy Industries

Actual Emissions

Nuclear Power

Hydro Power

Bioenergy

Wind Power

74

Climate treaties and –policy

75

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC) is an international environmental treaty produced at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.

• Its’ stated objective is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

• UNFCCC members that ratify this treaty admit officially that climate change is a serious problem.

• 192 nations have signed the UNFCCC.

Source: UNFCCC

*Tähän diaan on liitettynä muistiinpanoja

76

Kyoto Protocol 1/2

• The Kyoto Protocol is the principal update of UNFCCC• Notable international agreement

– 178 countries have ratified Kyoto Protocol • Countries that ratify this protocol commit to reducing

their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases – CO2, N2O, CH4, SF6, HFC, PFC– carbon dioxide is primary target

• 2008-2012 developed countries have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by a collective average of 5% below their 1990 levels

• EU will reduce 8 %. – Reduction has been shared between EU countries

by burden sharing agreement Lähde: UNFCCC

77

Kyoto Protocol 2/2• Emission reduce targets for 38 countries, e.g.

– EU-15 - 8 % (Burden Sharing Agreement)– USA - 7 % (has not ratified)– Japan and Canada - 6 %– Australia + 8 % (has not ratified)– Russia, Ukraine, New Zealand 0 %– Eastern European transition economy countries (not

all) - 8 %; incl. 8 new EU countries • Eastern European countries have to do nothing. Emission

are already well below their levels• Many countries haven’t got limits e.g.

– Oil countries in the Middle-East, China, India, South-America, Asian developing industrial countries, South-Africa,…

– The idea was that those countries will start reducing their emissions in the future

Source: UNFCCC

78

Burden sharing in EU-15

• EU shared targets between member states.

• Finland have to reduce emissions to same level as 1990.

• Percentages don’t tell how challenging the target is.

– The target for Finland is estimated as one of the most expensive in many analyses

• Finland’s emissions – 1990 ca. 71 MtCO2-eq.– 2008-2012 on average ca. 83

MtCO2-eq.

Luxembourg -28 %German -21 %Denmark -21 %Austria -13 %UK -12,50 %Belgium -8 %Italy -7 %Netherlands -6 %Finland 0 %France 0 %Sweden 4 %Irland 13 %Spain 15 %Greece 25 %Portugal 27 %

79

Burden sharing in Finnish NAP2

Governmental use of Kyoto mechanisms2,4 MtCO2/a

Emissions trading sector

- 12,1 MtCO2/a -18 %

Sectors outside emissions trading

- 1 MtCO2/a- 3 %

Finland´s need to reduce emissions

from WM 2008-2012

- 12,2 MtCO2/a +- 2 MtCO2/a*

Industry- 1,5

MtCO2/a- 7 %

Electricity and DH - 10,6 MtCO2/a

- 41 %

New entrants reserve

1,4 MtCO2/a

* EU Comission required Finland to reduce the amount of emission allowances by 2 MtCO2/a

80

The EU Emission Trading System 1/2• The EU Emission Trading System started 2005• Aim is reduce green house gas emissions and reach

Kyoto target.• Companies that are in emission trading system are

bound to:– apply for a permission to green house gas

emissions– track and validate the actual emissions in

accordance with the relevant assigned amount– retire the allowances after the end of each year

• Member states set a quota for GHG emissions– the total amount of allowances is less than the

amount that would have been emitted under a business-as-usual scenario.

81

The EU Emission Trading System 2/2

• The second phase (2008-12) expands the scope significantly:– emission allowances available 200 MtCO2/year

less than 2005-2007– companies will reduce emissions or buy emission

allowances– total emissions will reduce– Finland has emission allowances 16 % (8 Mt

CO2/year ) less than 2005– Reduction has been allocated mainly to power and

district heating production.

82

Emission trade sectors• Energy Industry

– over 20 MW (thermal) power plants, oil refineries and coke furnaces

– under 20 MW power plants for district heating if in same network is one or more over 20 MW power plant in Finland

– Excluding incineration of municipal and hazardous waste • Steel Industry

– roasting and sintering units of metallic minerals – iron and steel production and founding if production capacity

is over 2,5 t/h• Construction Industry

– Production of cement, lime, glass, fiberglass, bricks, porcelain and burned stone products.

• Paper and Forrest Industry– Production of pulp, paper and board if production capacity is

over 20 t/h

83

Scope of emission trading • Emission trading covers ca. 60 % greenhouse

gas emissions of the EU. – 500 Energy and Industry plants in Finland – 12 000 plant in the EU

• Possibly enlarging the scope of the scheme to new sectors, including aviation, petrochemicals, ammonia and the aluminum sector, as well to two new gases (nitrous oxide and perfluorocarbons)

• All 27 countries of the EU are in emission trading

84

Emission trading affects fuel prices and competitiveness

Polttoaine

CO2-päästö t/MWh

Nykyinen veroton hinta

€/MWhLisäkust. 5

€/MWhLisäkust. 20

€/MWhLisäkust. 50

€/MWhkivihiili 0,334 6-8 1,67 6,68 16,7turve 0,378 7-8 1,89 7,56 18,9puu 0 10-15 0 0 0

maakaasu 0,201 17-21 1,005 4,02 10,05raskas pö 0,276 20-25 1,38 5,52 13,8

Lähde: Tilastokeskus

FuelCoal

Peat

Wood

Gas

Heavy fuel oil

CO2 emission/MWh

Present price excl. taxes Extra cost 5 Extra cost 20 Extra cost 50

Source: Statistics Finnland

85

Purpose of the emission trading system is to affect demand and supply through CO2 price

• Emission free and low emission energy sources will gain competitive edge– enhance investments and increase utilization factors– One funding source for new investments is the emission

allowances of high CO2 emission energy sources• Changes in product prices effect the demand • Competition on the market aims to minimize price increase

The goal is to reduce green house gas emissions in a cost-effective way

86

Emission trading and Kyoton mechanisms

”Additional” emission allowances

through Kyoto mechanisms by the

state (JI, CDM, Global

ETS)Installations in EU

ETS

ca. 55 % of emissions

CO2 emissions from other sectors and other GHGca. 45 % of emissions

Additional emission allowances through EU ETS

Additional emission allowances through Kyoto mechanisms

Finland’s emission ceiling2008-2012 (ca. 71

MtCO2-ekv/a without Kyoto mechanisms and

EU ETS)

87

Climate Policy - Responsibilities 2008-2012

Each EU Member State hasown emission quota

DEPL

FIUK

FREmissions outside

ETSEmissions within

ETSEmissions outside

ETSEmissions within

ETS

Each MS makes a national allocation plan

KYOTO-TARGET EU-ETS

Total Amount of EU Emission allowances

National allocationplan for industrialplants

88

Link directive brings to the carbon market emission reductions though so called Kyoto- mechanisms• Link directive published 13.11.2004, In Finland

implemented by changing the emission trading law 12.1.2007

• Makes it possible to utilize emission reduction executed outside EU in EU’s ETS

– Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)-projects executed in developing countries provide CER-units, which have been used since 2005

– Joint Implementation (JI) -projects executed in industrial countries provide ERU-units, which have been used since 2008

• Limits the price increase of emission allowances in the EU

• Makes the carbon market global

89

• CDM, Clean Development Mechanism, CDM is an arrangement under the Kyoto Protocol allowing

industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas reduction commitment to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions in their own countries. Distribution of CDM emission reductions, by country. The CDM allows net global greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced at a much lower global cost by financing emissions reduction projects in developing countries where costs are lower than in industrialized countries

• Additionality A crucial feature of an approved CDM carbon project is that it has established that the planned reductions would not occur without the additional incentive provided by emission reductions credits, a concept known as "additionality".

Flexibility mechanisms (Kyoto mechanisms) 1/2

90

Flexibility mechanisms (Kyoto mechanisms) 2/2

•JI, Joint Implementation Through the Joint Implementation,

industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas reduction commitment (so-called Annex 1 countries) may fund emission reducing projects in other industrialized countries as an alternative to emission reductions in their own countries. Typically, these projects occur in countries in the former Eastern Europe. Emission reductions are awarded credits called Emission Reduction Units (ERUs).

91

Climate credits (Carbon credits)

•Emission Reduction Unit, ERU

Emission reduction unit (ERU) refers to the reduction of greenhouse gases, particularly under Joint Implementation, where it represents one tonne of CO2 equivalent reduced.

•Certified Emission Reduction, CER

Like ERU, but CERs are climate credits (or carbon credits) issued by CDM.

92

Future Prospects

93

Growth scenario of global energy use

Öljy

Hiilil

Kaasu

BiomassaYdin

Muut uusiutuvat

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Lähde: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006, perusskenaario

Nuclear

Biomass

Gas

Coal

Oil

Other renewable

Source: IEA World energy outlook 2006, Basic Scenario

94

Electricity supply by energy sources scenario in Finland

Sähkön tuotanto energialähteittäin, TWh

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

nettotuonti

muut polttoaineetturve

maakaasu

öljy

kivihiili

ydinvoima

tuulivoimavesivoima

Lähde: KTM

Net importOther fuelsPeat

GasOilCoal

Nuclear powerWind powerHydro power

Source: Ministry of Employment and the

Economy

Electricity Supply by Energy Sources, TWh

95

Development of power consumption

2006 90 TWh, 2020 107 TWh, 2030 115 TWh

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TW

h

Losses

Electric heating

Households andagriculture

Services andtransportation

Other industry

Chemical industry

Metal industry

Forest industry

2006 90 TWh, 2020 107 TWh, 2030 115 TWh

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TW

h

Losses

Electric heating



Other industry

Chemical industry

Metal industry

Forest industry0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TW

h

Losses

Electric heating



Other industry

Chemical industry

Metal industry

Forest industry

Source: Ministry of Employment and the Economy

96

Target of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is stabilize greenhouse gas emissions to safety level

5

10

15

20

25

Source: UK DEFRA

CO2 -emissions (GtC)

Basic Scenario

Developed countries Undeveloped countries

550 ppm stabilization

0

30

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

450 ppm stabilization

97

Scenarios compared to actual emissions

98

EU in international climate negotiations

Communication on Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius

• Independent commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 20% from 1990 level

• If an international agreement signed, 30% GHG reduction compared to 1990 + developing CDM

Targets will be reached by:• Developing EU ETS • Improving energy efficiency (20 % by 2020) • Increasing share of renewable energy (20 % by 2020) • CCS-technology, other R&D, reducing emissions from transportation

and other sectors

99

Finland’s energy and climate strategy and current political climate –Kyoto period

• Main Messages of the Government– All energy sources must be exploitable– Renewable energy must be promoted– Industrial Electricity Tax reduced– Major Part (ca.8Mt/a) of the emission reduction allocated

to emission trading sector, other sectors need to reduce emission 1Mt/a

– Finland (state) will utilize Kyoto mechanisms 2Mt/a

How will Finland reach its’ Kyoto target and what is the role of other policy instruments

in EU’s Emission Trading Scheme Environment?

100

Main techniques to increase renewable energy 1/2Hydro Power

• Utilizing rivers• Reservoirs• Tide power• Wave power

Bioenergy

• Wood and agricultural products

• Biogas • Biofuel made from

biomass

101

Main techniques to increase renewable energy 2/2

Wind Power

• Wind Mill– nowadays is

possible to build onshore, offshore or inland

Solar Power

• Solar Electricity– solar cell

• Solar Heating– thermal collectors – heat pumps

• Electricity and Heat– concentrated solar

power

102

Carbon Capture and Storage - CCS

• CCS is an approach to mitigate global warming by capturing CO2 from large point sources such as fossil fuel power plants and storing it. Technology for large scale capture of CO2 is already commercially available and fairly well developed. Although CO2 has been injected into geological formations for various purposes, the long term storage of CO2 is a relatively untried concept and as yet no large scale power plant operates with a full CCS system.

• CCS could reduce CO2 emissions approximately 80-90%, increase the fuel needs of a coal-fired plant with CCS by about 25% and increase the cost of energy from a new power plant with CCS by 21-91% [IPCC special report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage 2005]

103

CO2 capture • In post-combustion, the CO2 is removed after combustion of the

fossil fuel - this is the scheme that would be applied to conventional power plants. Here, carbon dioxide is captured from flue gases at power stations. The technology is well understood and is currently used in other industrial applications.

• Pre-combustion is widely applied in fertilizer, chemical, gaseous fuel (H2, CH4), and power production. In these cases, the fossil fuel is partially oxidized, for instance in a gasifier. The resulting syngas (CO and H2) is shifted into CO2 and more H2. The resulting CO2 can be captured from a relatively pure exhaust stream. The H2 can now be used as fuel; the carbon is removed before combustion takes place.

• In Oxy-fuel combustion the fuel is burned in oxygen instead of air. To limit the resulting flame temperatures to levels common during conventional combustion, cooled flue gas is recirculated and injected into the combustion chamber. The flue gas consists of mainly carbon dioxide and water vapour, the latter of which is condensed through cooling. The result is an almost pure carbon dioxide stream that can be transported to the sequestration site and stored.

Source: Wikipedia

104

CO2 Storage (sequestration)

• Various forms have been conceived for permanent storage of CO2. These forms include: – gaseous storage in various deep geological

formations (including saline formations and exhausted gas fields)

– liquid storage in the ocean – solid storage by reaction of CO2 with metal

oxides to produce stable carbonates

Source: Wikipedia

105

CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage

Source: IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage

1 climate change and energy updated powerpoint show about climate change and energy sector

Documents

natural greenhouse effect

greenhouse gas levels

certain atmospheric

assessment reportaccording

average temperature

global warmingcarbon

assessment reportsources

change of land use