1 by richard baldwin, graduate institute of international studies, geneva world trade facts see for...
TRANSCRIPT
1
by Richard Baldwin, Graduate Institute of International
Studies, Geneva
World trade factssee
www.wto.org for updates & details
2
Who are the big traders?• The 16 nations
with more than 1% of world exports together acc’t for 2/3rd of world trade
• The top 8 acc’t for ½ of world trade
• World trade in 2004 was $7.3 trillion.
$ bill. (2003)% of World
Trade
Germany 748 10%
United States 724 10%
Japan 472 6%
China 438 6%
France 387 5%
United Kingdom 305 4%
Netherlands 294 4%
Italy 292 4%
Canada 273 4%
Belgium 255 3%
Korea, Republic of 194 3%
Mexico 165 2%
Spain 152 2%
Taipei, Chinese 150 2%
Singapore 144 2%
Russian Federation 134 2%
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Who are the big traders?The 69 Nations accounting for 95% of world trade, 2003
BelgiumSpain
Kuwait
France5%
China6%
Japan7%
United States10%
Germany11%
United Kingdom4%
Kazakhstan
GreeceLuxembourg
New Zealand RomaniaViet Nam Nigeria
Chile
AlgeriaUkraine
Venezuela
Israel
South Africa c
Hungary
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
SloveniaIraq
QatarColombia
Slovak Republic
PortugalArgentina
Philippines
AustraliaBrazil
Thailand
Saudi Arabia
Ireland
Austria
Norway
DenmarkUnited Arab Emirates
Indonesia
TurkeyCzech RepublicFinland
India Poland
Malaysia
OmanPakistanPeru
BelarusAngola
MoroccoTunisia
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Bangladesh
Korea, Republic of
Singapore
Mexico
Taipei, Chinese
Iran
Switzerland
Sweden
Russian Federation
Other25%
Netherlands4%
Italy4%
Canada4%
4
The Quad• Traditionally the “Quad” (=
EU, US, Japan and Canada) dominated the GATT proceedings, especially the trade Rounds.
• They account for much of world trade, but recently China has become very important.
2003
Exports Share
European Union (15) 2,901 39%
Intra-EU (15) exports 1,350 18%
Extra-EU (15) exports 1,105 15%
United States 724 10%
Canada 273 4%
Japan 472 6%
THE QUAD 4,369 58%
World 7,503 100%
China 438 6%
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World trade network by regionsWTO definitions of regions:
6
Trade by regionsVolume of Trade by Region, 2004, $bill.
3145
1901
997
401
378
299
173
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Western Europe
Asia
North America
C./E. Europe/BalticStates/CIS
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Imports from World
Exports to World
42%
23%
20%5%
4%
3%
2%
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World trade network by regions
AfrME
LANA
AsiaEur
AfrM
ELA
NAAsi
aEur
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500$ B
illion
s
Regional Trade Matrix, 2004
Europe-Europe
Asia-Asia
N.Amer.-N.Amer.
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World trade by commodity: Highly aggregated
World merchandise trade by major product group, 1950-03Volume indices, 1950=100
Manufactures
Mining products
Agricultural products
100
1000
10000
1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2003
Log. scale
Agricultural products
10%
Mining products
14%
Manufactures76%
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World trade by commodity
Commodity composition of World Trade, 2003
Other machinery and
transport equipment
Machinery and transport
equipment
Ores and other minerals
Automotive products
ChemicalsOffice and telecom
equipment
Iron and steelOther semi-
manufactures
Non-ferrous metals
Fuels
FoodRaw materialsOther consumer
goodsClothing
Textiles
More disaggregated
Ag Mining
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Who trades what with whom?EU15 Exports & Imports by Good and by Partner, 2003 ($bill)
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
WE exp
NA exp
Asia exp
EE exp
Afr exp
LA exp
ME exp
Manufactures
Mining products
Agricultural products
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Who trades what with whom?
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
WE exp
WE imp
NA exp
NA imp
Asia exp
Asia imp
EE exp
EE imp
Afr exp
Afr imp
LA exp
LA imp
ME exp
ME imp
EU15 Exports & Imports by Good and by Partner, 2003 (Shares)
Agricultural products
Mining products
Manufactures
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Who trades what with whom?Focus on manufactures trade Europe & North America
0% 50% 100%
WE exp
WE imp
EU15 Exports & Imports by Good and with N. Amer. 2003 (Shares)
Iron and steel
Chemicals
Other semi-Manf
Mach&Transp.Eq.
PowerGen.Mach.
Oth.NonElecMach
Off.&Telecomm.Eq.
Elec.Machinery
Automotive
Oth.Transp.Eq.
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Who trades what with whom?US Trade by commodity & partner, 2003
0% 50% 100%
expimp
EU (15)expimp
Canadaexpimp
Mexicoexpimp
Chinaexpimp
Japanexpimp
Koreaexpimp
World
Agricultural products
Mining products
Manufactures
14
Who trades what with whom?China Trade by commodity & partner, 2003
0% 50% 100%
expimp
Japanexpimp
Unitedexpimp
EU (15)expimp
Hongexpimp
Koreaexpimp
Taipei,expimp
World
Agricultural products
Mining products
Manufactures
15
Who trades what with whom?Mexico Trade by commodity & Partner, 2003
0% 50% 100%
expimp
United Statesexpimp
EU (15)expimp
Chinaexpimp
Japanexpimp
Canadaexpimp
Koreaexpimp
World b
Agricultural products
Mining products
Manufactures
16
Who trades what with whom?
Canada trade by commodity & Partner, 2003
0% 50% 100%
expimp
United Statesexpimp
EU (15)expimp
Japanexpimp
Chinaexpimp
Mexicoexpimp
Koreaexpimp
World
Agricultural products
Mining products
Manufactures
17
Stylized facts of world trade• EU, US, Canada & Japan (“the Quad”) dominate the
world trade flows.• Manufactured goods dominate world trade flows.
– More so for rich nations, less so for poor nations– Exceptions like OPEC nations
• The Quad import and export similar products from each other, “intra-industry trade”– This form of trade accounts for about 2/3rds of world
trade.• North-South trade marked by mis-matched imports
& exports, i.e. “inter-industry trade”• South-South trade is very small.
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Stylized facts of world trade• North-South trade seems to be “Heckscher-Ohlin
trade”, i.e. trade is dissimilar goods between dissimilar nations.
• North-North trade seems to be “intra-industry trade”, i.e. two-way trade in similar goods among similar nations.