1 an econometric model for international tourism flows to spain applied economics letters, 2000, 7,...
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An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain
Applied Economics Letters, 2000, 7, 525-529.
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Teresa Garín Muñoz Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia,
Madrid, Spain. e-mail: [email protected]
Teodosio Pérez Amaral Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain
e-mail: [email protected]
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Outline
Abstract I. Introduction. II. The model and the data. III. Empirical results. IV. Conclusions.
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ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study is to measure the impact of theeconomic determinants of the international demand for tourist services in Spain. We use a panel data set ofseventeen countries over the period 1985-1995.
By using appropriate panel data techniques we estimate theeffects of real per capita income, exchange rates, and realprices on the demand for Spanish tourist services.
The estimated elasticities are +1.40, +0.50, and -0.30,respectively. The negative effect of the Gulf War is alsodetected, with a coefficient of -0.15. These results arecomparable to previous empirical studies for othercountries.
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I. Introduction.
1997, tourism, 10.5% GDP USA 77 BILLION DOLLARS ITALY 30 SPAIN 28
Forecasting studies, Spain: Almagro (1979), Padilla (1988)
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International demand studies
Elasticities, policies, scenarios, Bakkal, 1991; Loebb, 1982; Summary, 1987; Syriopoulos and Sinclair, 1993; Witt and Martin, 1987.
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Outline
Abstract I. Introduction. II. The model and the data. III. Empirical results. IV. Conclusions.
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II. The model and the data.
We use an unbalanced panel data set consisting of 17 routes of tourism over a period of 11 years (1985-1995).
Annual data.
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TABLE 1, % part. by country
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
%
GERMANY UK
FRANCE ITALY
BELGIUM NETHERLANDS
US SWITZERLAND
SWEDEN PORTUGAL
JAPAN DENMARK
IRELAND NORWAY
CANADA GREECE
MEXICO
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Determinants of tourism
income, price, exchange rate, transportation costs, population,
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LTOURit = αi + β1 LGNPit + β 2 LEXit +
β 3 LPRit + β 4 D91t + uit
β 1, β 2 > 0
β 3, β 4 < 0
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Where the subindex i is for countries, t is for time and L denotes natural logarithms (log). And:
– L TOUR i t is the log of the number of nights spent in Spanish hotels by tourists from country i during year t. In per capita terms.
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L GNP i t log of the Gross National Product (in PPP dollars) of country i during year t. Expressed in per capitaterms.
– L EX i t log of the number of pesetas per unit of currency of country i during year t.
– L PR tlog of the price index of tourist services in Spain divided by the CPI of each country.
– D91 t dummy variable for the Gulf War that takes the value 1 in 1991 and 0 elsewhere.
– u i t Random error term.
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Outline
Abstract I. Introduction. II. The model and the data. III. Empirical results. IV. Conclusions.
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3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Selected Model: within.
Income elasticity: 1.41. Exchange rate elasticity: 0.50. Price elasticity: -0.30. D91: -0.15.
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Outline
Abstract I. Introduction. II. The model and the data. III. Empirical results. IV. Conclusions.
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IV. Conclusions
Income, Price, Exchange rate, Gulf War, Expo and Olimpic Games, 92.
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Other possible factors
Age distribution, Income distribution, Quality, Price of alternative destinations, Education, Leisure and business,
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However
Useful for assessing scenarios, As a starting point, More desagregated data. Comparable to many international
studies.