1 9/21/2015 science and technology infusion plan for numerical prediction science and technology...
TRANSCRIPT
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Science and Technology Infusion Plan
forNumerical Prediction
Science and Technology Infusion Plan
forNumerical Prediction
NWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002
NWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002
Jeff McQueen
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OutlineOutline
• Team Composition
• Vision
• Key Service Gaps
• Key NP Solutions
• Outstanding R&D Needs
• Infusion Strategy
• Summary
• Team Composition
• Vision
• Key Service Gaps
• Key NP Solutions
• Outstanding R&D Needs
• Infusion Strategy
• Summary
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Numerical PredictionTeam Composition
Numerical PredictionTeam Composition
• Jeff McQueen – NWS/OST
• Paul Dallavalle – NWS/OST
• Steve Koch – OAR/FSL
• Ralph Petersen – NWS/NCEP
• Jeff McQueen – NWS/OST
• Paul Dallavalle – NWS/OST
• Steve Koch – OAR/FSL
• Ralph Petersen – NWS/NCEP
• Dave Stensrud – OAR/NSSL
• Stan Benjamin – OAR/FSL
• Michael Smith – NWS/OHD
• Dave Stensrud – OAR/NSSL
• Stan Benjamin – OAR/FSL
• Michael Smith – NWS/OHD
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Increased Probabilistic Forecasts thru Ensembling & Postprocessing
Numerical Prediction
Improved Model Predictions:• Improved Initialization:
- Increased Use of Remote Sensed Data- Improved Small-Scale Data Assimilation
• More Realistic Physics:- Clouds, PBL, Radiation, Land & Water
Interactions
• Increased Resolution _
Vision
Common Model Framework
For Climate/Weather/Water
Drive Improved Applications- Aviation, Marine, Hydro, Tropical, AQ…
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Numerical Prediction Pathway to Unified Common Model Framework
Numerical Prediction Pathway to Unified Common Model Framework
2002
2007 2012
Global/
Climate
2020
Ocean
Regional
Hydrologic
Hurricane
Hazards/AQ
GFS
ROFS
Eta
RUC
SFM
NOAH/AHPS
Hysplit
GFDL
Coupled atm-ocean
global model
Coupled(L/A/H/AQ)
WRF Framework
Unified fully coupled framework for
climate/weather/water
time
Deterministic &Probabilistic
Coupled Land-atm-ocean-ice
global model
Coupled(L/A/H/AQ)
WRF Framework
Deterministic &Probabilistic
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Numerical PredictionKey Service Gaps
Numerical PredictionKey Service Gaps
Linking Model Advances to Service Improvements
• Improve Forecasts of Mesoscale Phenomena:
– Severe Storm, Gravity Waves, Turbulence
– Precip Types, Cloud, Surface Properties
• Improve Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities
• More Accurate Warm and Cool Season QPF
• Storm Track & Intensity Forecasts & Associated QPF
• Improve Week Two to Seasonal Range Forecasting
• Improved Forecasts of Global Ocean Conditions
• Implement Air Quality Forecasts
• Improve Forecasts of Mesoscale Phenomena:
– Severe Storm, Gravity Waves, Turbulence
– Precip Types, Cloud, Surface Properties
• Improve Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities
• More Accurate Warm and Cool Season QPF
• Storm Track & Intensity Forecasts & Associated QPF
• Improve Week Two to Seasonal Range Forecasting
• Improved Forecasts of Global Ocean Conditions
• Implement Air Quality Forecasts
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Improved Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities
More Accurate Mesoscale Phenomena Forecasts
Service Gap
Numerical PredictionKey Solutions
Numerical PredictionKey Solutions
Impact
• Provide a Range of Forecasts & Uncertainty
• Improved Forecasts Downstream of Data-Sparse Areas
• Advanced Ensembles (SREF;GFS)
• Targeted Obs Techniques• Ensemble PDFs, Neural Nets
• Improved Low-Level Wind Forecasts by 20%
• Improved Convection Forecasts by 15%
• Improved Cloud Properties (Icing, C&V..)
• Improved Visibility by 10%
• Improved QPF by 10%
• WRF(NA, HRW, RRW) , SREF• Advanced Data Assimilation• Remote Sensing Upgrades• Advanced Cloud Physics (WRF) • Improved Land Surface Models
(NOAH) & hydrologic coupling• Improved Observations into
Cloud Analyses & LDAS
Projected Solution
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Numerical PredictionKey Solutions
Numerical PredictionKey Solutions
• Provide Consistent Guidance
• Support EPA Mission
• Implement IOC w/ Transition to Fully Coupled WRF-ChemImplement Air Quality
Forecasts
• Increased Accuracy of ENSO/SST Anomalies
• 100% Ocean/Lake Coverage
• Gulf stream position
• Upgrade Global Ocean Data Assimilation System(GODAS) Coupled Land/Ocean/Ice GFS
• Upgrade Wave Model (10 km) • Great Lakes System
Improve Forecasts of Global Ocean Conditions
• Improve Week Two to Seasonal Forecasts of Temp/Precip/Hazards
• GFS, Global Ensembles• Seasonal Forecast Model• Coupled Ocean/Atm/Land
Improve Long Range Forecasting
• 20% increase in Intensity• Marine: 20% Improvement
• Hurricane WRF DA/Model• North Amer. WRF, GFS, HRW• Ensembles/ Targeted obs
ImpactProjected SolutionService Gap
More Accurate Warm Season Precipitation
More Accurate Cool Season Precipitation
• North Amer. WRF, GFS• Ensembles/ Targeted obs
•R/S Resolved w/in 30km•Mtn QPF Resolved to
30km
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Numerical Prediction Key S&T Solutions
Numerical Prediction Key S&T Solutions
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202
Deployment
Global, SREFProbabilistic
WRF SREF Multi-model*
Hydrologic
Hybrid veg/soil Distributed basin*
GFS T254Global
Coupled* ocean/atm/land
Common* Global-30/ Regional-3
Adv. Assim. * NPOESSRadar
Data Assimilation
Cloud/GODAS
Regional/AQWRF: NA-8, RR, HRWEta, RUC,HRW
cpld AQ WRF-4*Ozone
Physics
Existing cloud physics
Explicit cloud* & Adv physics Coupled AQ
DTE
R&D
OTE
Common* SFM/GFS
Climate Global Ocean Model
AHPS
SFM T62
Eta/GFS MOS Ensemble PDF Neural Nets
Super Computing 80x36x14x2x 9x
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Numerical Prediction Outstanding R&D Needs
Numerical Prediction Outstanding R&D Needs
• Enhanced Methods to Assimilate Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed Data
• Develop Small-scale Assimilation Techniques and Deploy Obs Database
• Improve High Resolution Physics
• Improved Hydrological-Ocean-Atmosphere coupling
• Develop Mesoscale Verification Techniques
• Improved Methods to Convey Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities
– Reduced Model Biases
– Merge Ensembles with High-Resolution Models
• Enhanced Methods to Assimilate Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed Data
• Develop Small-scale Assimilation Techniques and Deploy Obs Database
• Improve High Resolution Physics
• Improved Hydrological-Ocean-Atmosphere coupling
• Develop Mesoscale Verification Techniques
• Improved Methods to Convey Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities
– Reduced Model Biases
– Merge Ensembles with High-Resolution Models
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Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy
Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy
• Emphasize Partnerships– WRF; ESMF (NOAA, NCAR, FAA, AFWA, Navy, NASA,
Universities)
• Develop Common Architecture – Common Model/Data Assimilation Framework
• WRF, Radiative Transfer Models, ESMF
– Multi-disciplinary Coupled Codes • Atmosphere, Hydrologic, Ocean, AQ
– Teragrid Concept for Increased Data Nodes
• Implement Modeling Testbed– JCSDA– NOAA/NCAR DTC
• Emphasize Partnerships– WRF; ESMF (NOAA, NCAR, FAA, AFWA, Navy, NASA,
Universities)
• Develop Common Architecture – Common Model/Data Assimilation Framework
• WRF, Radiative Transfer Models, ESMF
– Multi-disciplinary Coupled Codes • Atmosphere, Hydrologic, Ocean, AQ
– Teragrid Concept for Increased Data Nodes
• Implement Modeling Testbed– JCSDA– NOAA/NCAR DTC
NWS
Aviation
CoastalMarine
Severe
Observations NWP
Climate
Satellite
Hurricane
Universities,Labs, OtherUniversities,Labs, Other
Universities,Labs, Other
Universities,Labs, Other
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Numerical PredictionTowards a Common Modeling Infrastructure
Numerical PredictionTowards a Common Modeling Infrastructure
• Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model
• State-of-the-Science, Common Infrastructure System
• Supporting Advanced Regional- to Local-Scale Research & Operational Forecasting
• More Effective and Timely Transition of Research into Operations
• Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA
• Unified Global, Climate and Mesoscale Numerical Forecast System
• Improve Climate/Global/Weather predictions
• Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model
• State-of-the-Science, Common Infrastructure System
• Supporting Advanced Regional- to Local-Scale Research & Operational Forecasting
• More Effective and Timely Transition of Research into Operations
• Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA
• Unified Global, Climate and Mesoscale Numerical Forecast System
• Improve Climate/Global/Weather predictions
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Numerical Prediction WRF Framework Supports Deterministic &
Probabilistic Forecasts
Numerical Prediction WRF Framework Supports Deterministic &
Probabilistic Forecasts
WRF Core 2
(ESMF)
WRF Core 3
WRF Core 1
Data Assimilation
Initial Conditions
& Ensemble
Perturbations
Physics Options
Aviation Marine
Tropical Severe Storms
Winter Wx
Hydrologic Air
Quality Hazards
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Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy: Testbed
Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy: Testbed
DevelopmentalTest Centers
OperationalTest Centers
NCAR
OAR
NCEP
FNMOC
AFWA
Universities&
Labs
WRF Contributed
Code
WRF Reference
Code
WRF Operational
Code
NRL
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Numerical Prediction Summary
Numerical Prediction Summary
2007 20122012
Incr
easi
ng
P
erfo
rman
ceIn
crea
sin
g
Per
form
ance
2020202020022002
R&D NeedsR&D Needs
• Assimilation of Increasing Volume of Assimilation of Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed DataRemote Sensed Data
• Small-scale Assimilation TechniquesSmall-scale Assimilation Techniques
• Improved Representation of Non-Improved Representation of Non-Hydrostatic Scale Physics Hydrostatic Scale Physics
• Probabilistic ApproachesProbabilistic Approaches
• Mesoscale Verification TechniquesMesoscale Verification Techniques
• Common Climate/ Global System
• More Realistic Cloud Physics
• Improve Use of Existing & New Observations
• WRF Framework
• Advanced Ensembling
• Cloud Analysis
• Adv. Small-scale Data Assimilation
• Adv. Physics/ Coupled AQ
Vision
Common Model Framework
For Climate/Weather/Water
Supporting NWS Service missions
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Back UpsBack Ups• Roadmaps
• Resolution Time-Series
• Observational Needs
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Data Assimilation RoadmapData Assimilation Roadmap2002 2003 2004 2005
EDAS/GDAS (3DVAR) RUC 3DVAR & Cloud
analysisimpr. background error covariances
G/EDAS Cloud analyses
GPS, Jason altimeter
5 additionalAll models
Rawinsonde Improved: AllAdaptive Obs Winter N. Pac
EDAS/RUC: Higher Res
EDAS:Mesonets, COOP
Improved:All
Real-time Greenness fraction
Soil moisture/snow cover
GDAS/EDAS/RUC via Cloud drift winds
GDAS/EDAS G/EDAS: higher res RUC
LDAS
Infrared Instruments
EDAS/GDASG/EDAS
NOAA/AMSU A-B GDAS/EDAS over land RUC over landDMSP/SSM/I GDAS/EDASNPP/ATMS
NPOESS/ATMS QUIKSCAT/Seawinds GDAS/EDAS
TRMM/PR GDAS/EDASNASA/GPM/DPR
EDAS/RUC: TPW
EDAS: 88D level 3 radial velocities
Upper Air
Data Assimilation
GFDL FDDA, Sat altimeter, insitu, MCSST & AVHRR SST, QUIKSCAT
SURFACE
NEXRAD
RADAR
Techniques
EDAS/RUC: Level 2 superobs
Ocean
ORDA
Dual Pole
Atmosphere
Water Vapor Sensor
Winds
Polar Orbiters Sounders
Microwave Instruments
T,V,RH, Pres, precip
Land sfc
GOES, EUMETSAT, JMA
Geostationary Sounders
METOP/IASINPOESS/CrIS
GPS Radio Occultation
MDCRS
SATELLITE
NOAA/AVHRRNPP/VIIRS
GOES (radiances, PW)
Polar Orbiter Imagers
NOAA/HIRS
Geostationary Imagers
GIFTS
AQUA/AIRSNPP/CrIS
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Numerical Prediction RoadmapNumerical Prediction RoadmapNOAH-EDAS & RUC
land sfc hybrid coupling
NOAH-LDAS R-T greenness fraction
Uncoupled Global/SFM LDAS (obs precip)
2nd order closure
6 species microphysics
Bulk radiation
Eta/Global: Improved LW/microphysics effects
AGCM: T62L28/7mo/1x-mo, 21 mem ensemble
SFM: T62L28/7mo/1x-mo,
21 mem ensemble 1-way ocean 4DDA &
coupling
SFM:T126L42/7 mo/ 1x-mo, 21
Ensemble, 1-way ocean coupling
RSM: 32k ensemble for threats
Statistical downscaling Principle Compon. Anal. Neural Networks
Global
GFS: T170L42/384h/4xGFS:T254L64/384h/4x
Eta 12kL60/2x-84h/4x Eta 10kL65/84h/4x
20kL50/12h-8x/3h-16x18kL50/12h-8x/ 6h-
16x
NMM 8kL64/48h/1x WRF 8kL64/48h/1x4kL40/24h/1x 2 WFOs, LAPS-WRF 4kL40/24h/1x
LAPSHOT-WRF
20 km/48h/1x East coast testing
20 km/120 h/ East coast/ Gulf
Mex 20 km west coast
GFDL 18kL42/72h/4x coupled 2 nest/Atl
GFDL 18K L42/72h coupled 2 nest, GFS
Physics/Atl+Pac GFDL 15K L64/72h coupled 2 nest
WW III/0.25 deg/72hWW IIIM/15 mem ens/5 day/Global
& Regional
Hemispheric/25 km/72hRiver Forecasts Lumped conceptual -> Downscaling NWP
Flash Flood Site Specific--> Coupled hydro-QPF Coupled hydro-QPF 50 AHPS sitesSite Specific--> Distributed basin w/flash flood
Hydraulic 1-D unsteady flow
routing
Lumped conceptual: 22 km NA, 60 km Global, statistical climate
High Resolution Window (HRW)
Numerical Prediction
Atmospheric Physics
Climate
North American
Surface/Land
Boundary Layer
Clouds
Radiation
Statistical tools
Global Forecast System (GFS)
Coastal Ocean Forecast System (COFS)
Hurricane
Waves
Sea-ice
Ocean
Hydrologic
North American
RUC/RRW
HRW-NCEP
Local-scale
Global climate
Regional climate
20002 2004
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Architecture Key S&T NP TimelineArchitecture
Key S&T NP Timeline
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202
Deployment
OTE
DTE
R&D
GFS 95kL42 SREF 48kL50Probabilistic
Multi-model 70kL60 SREF 12kL64
Ocean
North America (4x/day)
Cpld 80kL64 Annual
AGCM 381k28L 7mo-1/mon
Climate (1/mon)SFM 95kL64
HRW (1x/day)
NMM 8kL64 48h/3 h
Global (4x/day)
GFS 55k64L384h/3h
GFS 45k64L 384h /1h Cpld 30kL100
RUC 20kL50/12hRRW (8x/day)
ROFS 20k/Atl 48h/ 24h
GFS 90kL42 SREF 18kL60
Eta 12k64L84h/3h
RRW 11kL60/12h RRW 8kL70/18h 12x
WRF 8k70L84h/1h
WRF 4k/100L96h/1h
WRF6kL70 48h/2 h
WRF 2k/100L 48h/1 h
ROFS 20k/glb 5 day Cpld 20k/glb 2 week
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2003 2007 2012
Physics
Dta Assim
Regional
Global
Numerical Prediction AdvancesResolution and Ensemble Members
Numerical Prediction AdvancesResolution and Ensemble Members
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ho
rizo
nta
l R
eso
luti
on
(km
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
# En
semb
le Mem
bers
Global
Reg. Ens.
Regional
Reg. Ens. Mem
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ho
rizo
nta
l R
eso
luti
on
(km
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
# En
semb
le Mem
bers
Global
Reg. Ens.
Regional
Reg. Ens. Mem
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Numerical Prediction AdvancesSupercomputing Increases
Numerical Prediction AdvancesSupercomputing Increases
FY03: 1408 1.3 Ghz SP Processors
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Numerical PredictionKey Observational Gaps and S&T Solutions
Numerical PredictionKey Observational Gaps and S&T Solutions
Observational GAP
Projected Solution Expected Impact
Mesoscale wind thru troposphere
(highest res in PBL)
Better use of existing obs Enhanced ACARS/MDCRS
Space borne wind lidars, NPOESS
Upgrade NOAA profilers
Improved accuracy of short-term trop. Wind forecasts
Mesoscale moisture especially in PBL
WVSS-2/AMDAR upgrades
GPS IPW
Improved accuracy of short-term cloud, visibility, temperature forecasts
Improved observations in data sensitive areas
Targeted observations methods Improved winter/tropical
storm prediction
Improved cloud properties observations
Dual pole radars
88D superobs
GIFTS
Improved storm & cloud analysis and prediction
Improved land/water/ snow surface roperties
NPOESS
COOP modernizationImproved hydrologic & short term temperature forecasts
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Ensemble ForecastsEnsemble Forecasts
Ensembles can provideinformation on the likelyrange of forecast parametersand forecast uncertainty to users
Mean value
Range
Ensemblespread canbe used to determinehow observationaldata influences neighboring regions indata assimilationschemes
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Next-Generation Operational ModelsCloud-scale Modeling
(dx = dy = 2 km, dz = 500 m, dt = 12 s, 160 x 160 x 20 km domain )Surface temperature, surface winds and cloud field at 2 hours
Many Science and Technology Questions Remain
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04/19/23Potential Cloud-scale model benefits
12-hour NWS12-hour NWSForecastForecast
(unable to(unable torepresentrepresentindividualindividual
thunderstorms)thunderstorms)
Moore, OKTornadic
Storm
2-Hour CAPS Computer Forecast Down to the Scale of Counties
NEXRAD Radar Observations
Moore, OKTornadic
Storm
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04/19/23Numerical Prediction AdvancesDissemination Requirements
2007
Numerical Prediction AdvancesDissemination Requirements
2007
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04/19/23Current Operational Forecast Models
Current Operational Forecast Models
Operational forecast models predict:• Mesoscale and synoptic flow patterns• Precipitation via parameterizations that are unable to resolve
individual storms
Important storm-scale weather cannot be resolved:
Operational forecast models predict:• Mesoscale and synoptic flow patterns• Precipitation via parameterizations that are unable to resolve
individual storms
Important storm-scale weather cannot be resolved:
USING THIS
TO ANTICIPATE THIS
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Towards aCoupledModeling Systemwithdownscaling tohydrology models
SSTPREDICTION
GENERALCIRCULATION
LATERALB.C.
REGIONALCOUPLED
ATMOS-LANDMODEL
10 - 30 km
PRECIP, Ts,LAND-SFCFORCING
REGIONALUNCOUPLEDLAND-HYDRO
MODEL1-10 km
RUNOFFSNOWPACK
STREAMFLOWSOIL MOIST
GLOBALCOUPLED
ATMOS-LANDMODEL
30 - 100 km
GLOBALLAND4DDA
GLOBALATMOS4DDA
GLOBALOCEAN4DDA
REGIONALLAND4DDA
REGIONALATMOS4DDA
GLOBALCOUPLED
OCEAN-ATMOSLAND MODEL100 - 500 km
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