09 hendri 20120917

9/17/2012

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“CARBON STOCK ANALYSIS IN PAPUA”

By : Dr. HendriGraduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), Hiroshima University

Faculty of Forestry,The State University of Papua (Unipa)

Workshop on “Indonesia REDD+ Preparedness for Tropical Forest Management” on September 17th 2012 at IPB, Bogor

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2010)

9.1±0.5 PgC y-1

+0.9±0.7 PgC y-1

2.6±1.0 PgC y-1

26%Calculated as the residual

of all other flux components

5.0±0.2 PgC y-1

50%

24%2.4±0.5 PgC y-1

Average of 5 models

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Background

Developing Countries

3source: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve, 2009

Estimated Indonesian Emissions International Scheme To Reduce GHGs

Mitigation Option

CDM through Kyoto Protocol (2012) REDD+ (Post-Kyoto Protocol ~ )

Histories

Initiative

(PES)

the 13th Conference of the Parties (COP-13) in 2007, the

Bali Action Plan, REDD

Continue….COP 14th (Poznan, Poland)

COP 15th (Copenhagen, Denmark)

COP 16th (Cancun, Mexico)

COP 17th (Duban, South Africa)

COP 18th (Qatar) ….next

At the September 2009 G-20 summit in Pittsburgh,

Indonesia committed to reduce carbon emissions by 26

percent compared to BAU by 2020

REDD+

Pilot

Project

Phase 1, National REDD+ strategy

development, capacity building,

institutional strengthening (readiness)

Phase 2, Implementation of National

REDD+ included reference level setting as

BAU, MRV, and participation of indigenous

people or local communities.

Phase 3, Quantified changes in GHG

(emissions or removals) - > market

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REDD+ DefinitionPotential REDD+ in Papua

• Papua Island is the third largest tropical rainforest in the world.

Amazon (958 million ha), Congo (181 million ha) and Papua Island (68.7 million ha) -------

Papua (57%) and Papua New Guinea (43%) Mega-biodiversity

• The island is subjected to high deforestation rate (0.6 million ha, 2000-2005).

• Save our rainforests !!! (to protect mega-biodiversity in the Sahul shelf, to prevent

erosion (upstream area), atmospheric circulation, and climate) policy ---

decentralization, regulation, capacity building, and funding (national & international ----

Reduction Emission from Deforestation and Degradation, REDD+) Monitoring,

Reporting and Verification (MRV)

• So far, lag study of data inventory (carbon stocks) has been conducted to improve

knowledge of endemic and unique species in the Sahul shelf.

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Vs

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Pan et al. 2011, Science

Large and Consistent Global Forest Carbon Sink

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Land Use Change in Papua (2000-2009)

How much carbon will still keep/storage if we reducing deforestation and degradation ?????

Million Ha --- based on Landsat TM+Source: Ministry of Forestry (MoF)

Enhancement

Conservation

Categories 2000 2006 2009 Change(%)Water 0.1231 0.1262 0.5095 75.8378

Cloud 1.0881 0.8477 0.0205

Shrub 0.9145 0.9155 0.9994 8.4947

Shrub (Peat Area) 1.0711 1.0927 1.2199 12.1946

Primary Mangrove Forests 1.1965 1.2650 0.7250 -65.0375

Secondary Mangrove Forests 0.0666 0.0706 0.2624 74.6201

Primary Forests 17.1614 16.4254 14.6548 -17.1044

Primary Peat Forests 4.1982 4.0908 3.7325 -12.4758

Secondary Peat Forest 0.4607 0.5238 0.9461 51.3031

Secondary Dry Land Forests 3.6664 4.5541 5.8015 36.8021

Plantation 0.0029 0.0029 0.0022 -31.6514

Mix Dry Land Agriculture 0.7552 0.7570 1.0757 29.7954

Estate 0.0526 0.0606 0.0976 46.1289

Sattlement Area 0.0488 0.0520 0.0495 1.3315

Dry Land Agriculture 0.0596 0.0601 0.0906 34.2030

Swamp Area 0.4602 0.4506 0.8366 44.9937

Savana 1.3186 1.3030 1.5025 12.2418

Paddy Field 0.0105 0.0105 0.0154 31.7450

Fallow Area 0.4517 0.4982 0.5416 16.5920

Fishpond 0.0004 0.0004 0.0005 20.7664

Transmigration Area 0.071 0.0711 0.0909 21.8971

Minning 0.0079 0.0079 0.0112 29.4074

Airport 0.0010 0.0009 0.0012 16.1129

Total 33.1870 33.1870 33.1870

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Climate

To provide carbon stocks data in tree system carbon

stocks (AGB, BGB, necromass, litter and soil)

sampling using reference allometric equation.

To improve the equations for AGB and BGB (new

allometric equation) by destructive sampling in low

disturbance areas of logged-over secondary forests.

To develop carbon dynamic vegetation for long time

simulation.

Objective

Litter (L), 5 cm

Soil (S), up to 1 m

Under-storey

Biomass (Bu)

Above-ground

Biomass (AGB)

Necromass

dead tree (Nt)

Leaves

Roots

Necromass

dead leaves (Nl)

Little

Branches

Below-ground

Biomass (BGB)

Stem

Branches

Roots

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First Step

(Initialization)

Second Step

(Improvement)

Sampling sites in the lowland area in the Manokwari, West Papua, Indonesia

Study Area

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Terms of Community Forests

Regency Community Forests Species

Fak-Fak Monoculture

Simple agroforest

teak

teak – durian + pala

Wondama Monoculture

Simple agroforest

merbau

merbau – duku + pinang + matoa

Bintuni Bay Monoculture

Simple agroforest

merbau

merbau – durian + pinang +

matoa

Manokwari Monoculture

Simple agroforest

merbau

merbau – durian + pinang +

rambutan

Sorong Monoculture

Simple agroforest

teak

teak – durian + rambutan

South of Sorong Monoculture

Simple agroforest

teak

teak – hazelnut +durian +

rambutan

Sorong City Monoculture

Simple agroforest

teak

teak – hazelnut + pinang +

rambutan

Merbau (endemic species) Vs Teak (introduced species)

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Extent of the Study Area

13 14

Terms of Lifetime Plantation (years)

Land Use Types Lifetime

Agriculture (paddy field) season

Oil palm plantation 25 yr

Shifting cultivation season+agroforestry (5 yr)

Critical land in burned area season

Traditional agroforestry-cacao 5 yr

Ex. cacao plantation 20 yr

Transmigration area season+agroforestry (5 yr)

Succession area 10 yr

Secondary logged-over forests 20 yr

Natural mangrove forests > 100 yr

Natural peat forests > 100 yr

Natural low land forests > 100 yr

Community forests 10 yr

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Methodology

Non-destructive Sampling

(Survey + Data)

Destructive Sampling

Laboratory Analysis

Statistical Analysis

Permanent Demplot (Monitoring & Verification)

Local Institution (FORDA + University)

PROMOTE

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Methodology --- Non-destructive Sampling

Relations of sampling site, five plots and three different sizes of sampling areas

Sampling site

plot

plot

plot

plot

plot

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, 1 ha

Methodology --- Non-destructive Sampling

Only measure with using equipment and allometric equation based on the other regions of

Indonesia (Sumatra. Kalimantan (Borneo), Sulawesi (Celebes))

AGB = exp (-2.557 + 0.940 ln (ρw. D2. H)), Chave et al. (2005)

BGB = exp (-1.0587 + 0.8836 ln (AGB)), Cairns et al. (1997)

TB = AGB.ρf.c + BGB.ρf.c

TBcomplex = TB.cf + Bu + Nl + Nt

where AGB (Above-ground Biomass, in kg/ tree)

BGB (Below-ground Biomass, in kg/ tree)

TB (Total Biomass, in t/ ha), TBcomplex (in tC/ha)

ρf (population per unit area, trees/ ha)

c (a non-dimensional conversion factor from kg to ton)

cf (a non-dimensional conversion factor from carbon content)

ρw (wood density, in g/ cm3)

D (Diameter, DBH in cm)

H (Total Height, in m)

Bu (Under-storey Biomass, in tC/ ha)

Nl (Necromass dead leaves, in tC/ ha)

Nt (Necromass dead tree, in tC/ ha)

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Methodology --- Destructive Sampling

►To choice 1 of trees with large diameter for

each position --- 5 tree (The logged-over

secondary forest)

►To cut root

►To cut under-storey site

►To slice litter organic

►To cut dead tree (if available)

►To drill soil up to 1 meter for forest and 50

cm for agricultural

Lab analysis

WII, 1997

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Cutting of biomass organs of stem, branch, little branch, leaves and root

Y = a Db. --- AGB , Brown et al.,(1997)

B = cf. Y

Bu = cf. Bu. A

Nl = cf. Nl. A

Nt = cf. Nt. A

L or S = cf. ρs. depth.100

where B (Biomass carbon stocks, in tC)

cf (non-dimensional conversion factor from carbon content in the lab. Analysis)

ρs (density of soil, in t m-3)

Methodology --- Destructive Sampling

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Methodology --- Statistical Analysis

perfect) indicates 0( ,1

1 1

BOPIJ

BJ

j

I

i

i

j

i

j


1 1

err

J

j

I

i

i

j

i

jerr GOPIJ

G


1 1 00

2

IOAMOMP

OP

IJIOA

J

j

I

ii

j

i

j

i

j

i

j

where B is the bias, Gerr is the gross error, IOA is the index of

agreement, is the predicted value, is the observed value, is the

average of observed value (Tesche et al., 2001 and Emery et al., 2001).

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Result --- Carbon Stocks Data

Total Biomass

Minimum, average, and maximum TB based on wood density variations

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t C ≈ 0.5 x t B

Low Disturbance Area

Moderate Disturbance Area

High Disturbance Area

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Total Biomass

0.0

30.0

60.0

90.0

120.0

150.0

180.0

210.0

low disturbance moderate disturbance high disturbance

To

tal B

iom

ass

(t

ha

-1)

Land Use Types

Average of TB

Agroforestry-cacao

cassava, yam,

sweet potato

Secondary forest

Carbon Stocks Data

Total Carbon Stocks

Total carbon stocks in tropical land use system in Papua

The average proportion

of AGB/BGB and TB

parts is 82.2% and

17.8%, respectively

77.8%11.0%11.2%

Carbon content of the

under-storey biomass,

necromass dead leaves

and necromass dead tree

is less than 4 t C ha-1TBcomplex

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25


Total Biomass(All Land Use Types)

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

Primary Mangrove

Forests

Secondary Mangrove

Forests

Primary Forests

Primary Peat Forests

Secondary Peat Forest

Secondary Dry Land Forests

Tota

l Bio

mas

s (t

C/H

a)

Land Use Types

Average TB

Minimum (19.7%)Average (27.6%)

Maximum (22.5%)26

Secondary Forest

The tree carbon in the logged-over areas decrease about 83% (Bagus, 2012)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Selat Sech

Block

Bumbun Block

Tre

e C

arb

on s

tock

(m

g h

a-1

)

166.37163.44

Logged-over Mangrove area (West Kalimantan)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

5 months after

logging

1 year after logging

2 years after

logging

3 years after

logging

4 years after

logging

6 years after

logging

7 years after

logging

Tre

e C

arb

on

sto

ck (

Mg h

a-1)

26.7931.45 32.64

34.61

16.9725.72 21.47

Carbon Stocks Data

Improvement of Allometric Equations

New allometric equations:

After the correction of allometric equations, the total biomass increased by 26.4 %

from the original allometric equations,

AGB = exp (-2.557 + 0.940 ln (ρw. D2. H))

BGB = exp (-1.0587 + 0.8836 ln (AGB))

)}ln(946.0364.2exp{ 2HDAGB w

)}ln(9429.06603.1exp{ AGBBGB

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Next Development

Analysis Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) +

Alos Palsar data

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Thank You Very Much for Your Kind Attention

どもありがとございます

TERIMA KASIH

09 hendri 20120917

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