070427 tradesheet

9
E E E E QUITY QUITY QUITY QUITY R R R R ESEARCH ESEARCH ESEARCH ESEARCH DWS DWS DWS DWS T T T T RADE RADE RADE RADE S S S S HEET HEET HEET HEET C C C C OMPANY OMPANY OMPANY OMPANY R R R R EPORT EPORT EPORT EPORT D D W W S S T T T T T T R R R R R R A A A A A A D D D D D D E E E E E E S S S S S S H H H H H H E E E E E E E E E E E E T T T T T T Please carefully read important notices in the last pages of this report. 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 Share buybacks (1/24/06) Open Mkt, W538bn Dividend (1/24/06) W1,850 Divestitures (3/9/06) SK E&S, W344bn Earnings Annoucement (4/28/06) EPS W12,798, Consesus W11,925 Divestitures (6/30/06) SK E&C, W44bn Share buybacks (10/27/06) Open Mkt, W0.9bn Dividend (1/23/07) W1,900 Acquisition (3/26/07) Peru LNG LLC, W0.6bn Demerger/Split (4/11) Strategy: Factor Exposure Country: KOREA Sector: Refining/Petrochem Ticker: 003600 27 April 2007 27 April 2007 27 April 2007 27 April 2007 Factor Exposure Factor Exposure Factor Exposure Factor Exposure - Earnings Visibility Earnings Visibility Earnings Visibility Earnings Visibility SK Corporation Last Price (KRW) 96,900 12M Official Target Price (KRW) 120,000 Market-Neutral Return Target (%) 6~8 Timeline (Days) 10 In the Recesses of SK’s True Earnings 1Q Results: Performance reasserts itself PRICE/PRICE RELATIVE Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m Absolute 14.3 40.4 40.8 KOSPI 6.7 12.5 6.1 Alfred Park Alfred Park Alfred Park Alfred Park +82-2-768-4143 [email protected] Sammy Lee Sammy Lee Sammy Lee Sammy Lee +82-2-768-4142 [email protected] TRADING THESIS There have been a number of events and speculations in development for SK Corporation (‘SK’ hereafter) since the year began. One of more formidable events among all was the de-merger plan announced by the company - reason being that it would slowly but surely push the investment community to revisit the true worth of SK’s operating value and total enterprise value. It looks as if many investors have taken the official announcement of the de-merger plan as a selling opportunity in the context of ‘buy on rumor and sell on news.’ For SK is positioned at the very start of the supply chain for Korea Inc, we see a stable flow of asymmetric economic rents to be appropriated to the company so long as the ‘new manufacturing paradigm’ continues to spell out to be an ongoing theme to dictate the world business and economy. After all, if it ain’t broken, why fix it? Selling out of SK shares will prove to be premature and hasty. TRIGGER/CATALYST According to SK’s announcement of its 1st quarter earnings on April 26, gross profit and operating income growth came in at a robust clip of 31% and 44%, respectively. These results significantly exceed our target growth for the whole year . Given that our forecasts are among the highest on the street, we expect that the market will be compelled to revise the earnings estimate throughout rest of the year. Our official target price of W120,000 aside, we expect the share price to be ‘uplifted’ by 6~8% against the market within the next 10 sessions or so, assuming the market is efficient and no major oil disruptions come in sight. RISK We remain alert to a possibility of higher crude oil price scenario, associated with possible post-election disruptions to Nigeria’s oil flows and the ongoing dispute over Iran’s uranium enrichment program, albeit easing. Corporate Action Chart Source: SK STOCK SUMMARY Market Cap (KRWbn) 12,470 Market Cap (USDmn) 13,437 Major Shareholders SK C&C 11.16% TW Chey 0.97% Foreign Ownership (%) Templeton 6.06% Capital 5.01% Free Float (%) 61.8% KEY FIGURES (07E) ROE (%) 16.1 RoCE (%) 12.3 EBIT Margin* (%) 6.0 SVA Spread (%) +5.1 SVA Spread (Trail 2yr Avg., %) +4.5 Cash Yield (%) 8.7 Dividend Yield (%) 2.0 LIQUIDITY SUMMARY Average Daily Volume (1M) 675,746 Average Turnover (1M, KRWbn) 62.6 Average Turnover (6M, KRWbn) 49.0 Daily High Turnover (1M, KRWbn) 139.2 Daily Low Turnover (1M, KRWbn) 26.9 RISK SUMMARY (3 MONTH) Beta=1.11, Alpha=0.004 R-Squared =18% Standard Error=0.02 Standard Error of regression=0.3 Risk Summary figures are taken from a regression of the daily percent change in the share price (y-variable) against the daily percent change in the KOSPI 200 (x-variable) for the trailing 3 months. CORPORATE ACTION Share Buyback 13 mln shrs 10/06~01/07 Estimate Dividend Per Share KRW2,000~ KRW2,300 Next Earning Announcement Jul. 27(E) COMPANY DESCRIPTION SK refines, markets, and distributes oil. The company produces a variety of petroleum products such as petroleum, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and diesel oil. SK also manufactures petrochemical products, including ethylene, benzene, paraxylene, synthetic resins, and styrene monomer. Controlling company for SK Group, SK provides financial services through subsidiaries. Primary Market: Korea, Asia Primary Product: Petroleum & Petrochemical Primary Raw Material: Crude Oil Export/Total Sales: 43% by Volume

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Page 1: 070427 TradeSheet

EE EEQUITY

QUITY

QUITY

QUITY RR RRESEARCH

ESEARCH

ESEARCH

ESEARCH

DWS

DWS

DWS

DWS TT TTRADE

RADE

RADE

RADESS SSHEET

HEET

HEET

HEET

CC CCOMPANY

OMPANY

OMPANY

OMPANY RR RREPORT

EPORT

EPORT

EPORT

DDDDDDDDWWWWWWWWSSSSSSSS TTTTTTTTRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAADDDDDDDDEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETTTTTTTT

Please carefully read important notices in the last pages of this report.

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

Jan-06

Feb-06

Mar-06

Apr-06

May-06

Jun-06

Jul-06

Aug-06

Sep-06

Oct-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar-07

Apr-07

Share buybacks (1/24/06)

Open Mkt, W538bn

Dividend (1/24/06)

W1,850

Divestitures (3/9/06)

SK E&S, W344bn

Earnings Annoucement (4/28/06)

EPS W12,798, Consesus W11,925

Divestitures (6/30/06)

SK E&C, W44bn

Share buybacks (10/27/06)

Open Mkt, W0.9bn

Dividend (1/23/07)

W1,900

Acquisition (3/26/07)

Peru LNG LLC, W0.6bn

Demerger/Split (4/11)

Strategy: Factor Exposure Country: KOREA Sector: Refining/Petrochem Ticker: 003600

27 April 200727 April 200727 April 200727 April 2007

Factor ExposureFactor ExposureFactor ExposureFactor Exposure ---- Earnings VisibilityEarnings VisibilityEarnings VisibilityEarnings Visibility SSKK CCoorrppoorraattiioonn Last Price (KRW) 96,900

12M Official Target Price (KRW) 120,000

Market-Neutral Return Target (%) 6~8

Timeline (Days) 10

IIIIIIIInnnnnnnn tttttttthhhhhhhheeeeeeee RRRRRRRReeeeeeeecccccccceeeeeeeesssssssssssssssseeeeeeeessssssss ooooooooffffffff SSSSSSSSKKKKKKKK’’’’’’’’ssssssss TTTTTTTTrrrrrrrruuuuuuuueeeeeeee EEEEEEEEaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrnnnnnnnniiiiiiiinnnnnnnnggggggggssssssss 1Q Results: Performance reasserts itself

PRICE/PRICE RELATIVE

Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m

Absolute 14.3 40.4 40.8

KOSPI 6.7 12.5 6.1

Alfred ParkAlfred ParkAlfred ParkAlfred Park +82-2-768-4143 [email protected]

Sammy LeeSammy LeeSammy LeeSammy Lee +82-2-768-4142 [email protected]

TRADING THESIS There have been a number of events and speculations in development for SK Corporation

(‘SK’ hereafter) since the year began. One of more formidable events among all was the

de-merger plan announced by the company - reason being that it would slowly but surely

push the investment community to revisit the true worth of SK’s operating value and total

enterprise value. It looks as if many investors have taken the official announcement of

the de-merger plan as a selling opportunity in the context of ‘buy on rumor and sell on

news.’ For SK is positioned at the very start of the supply chain for Korea Inc, we see a

stable flow of asymmetric economic rents to be appropriated to the company so long as

the ‘new manufacturing paradigm’ continues to spell out to be an ongoing theme to

dictate the world business and economy. After all, if it ain’t broken, why fix it? Selling out

of SK shares will prove to be premature and hasty.

TRIGGER/CATALYST According to SK’s announcement of its 1st quarter earnings on April 26, gross profit and

operating income growth came in at a robust clip of 31% and 44%, respectively. These

results significantly exceed our target growth for the whole year. Given that our forecasts

are among the highest on the street, we expect that the market will be compelled to

revise the earnings estimate throughout rest of the year. Our official target price of

W120,000 aside, we expect the share price to be ‘uplifted’ by 6~8% against the market

within the next 10 sessions or so, assuming the market is efficient and no major oil

disruptions come in sight.

RISK We remain alert to a possibility of higher crude oil price scenario, associated with possible

post-election disruptions to Nigeria’s oil flows and the ongoing dispute over Iran’s uranium

enrichment program, albeit easing.

Corporate Action Chart

Source: SK

STOCK SUMMARY Market Cap (KRWbn) 12,470

Market Cap (USDmn) 13,437

Major Shareholders SK C&C 11.16% TW Chey 0.97%

Foreign Ownership (%) Templeton 6.06%

Capital 5.01%

Free Float (%) 61.8%

KEY FIGURES (07E) ROE (%) 16.1

RoCE (%) 12.3

EBIT Margin* (%) 6.0

SVA Spread (%) +5.1

SVA Spread (Trail 2yr Avg., %) +4.5

Cash Yield (%) 8.7

Dividend Yield (%) 2.0

LIQUIDITY SUMMARY Average Daily Volume (1M) 675,746

Average Turnover (1M, KRWbn) 62.6

Average Turnover (6M, KRWbn) 49.0

Daily High Turnover (1M, KRWbn) 139.2

Daily Low Turnover (1M, KRWbn) 26.9

RISK SUMMARY (3 MONTH) Beta=1.11, Alpha=0.004

R-Squared =18%

Standard Error=0.02

Standard Error of regression=0.3

Risk Summary figures are taken from a regression of the daily percent change in the share price (y-variable) against the daily percent change in the KOSPI 200 (x-variable) for the trailing 3 months.

CORPORATE ACTION

Share Buyback 13 mln shrs

10/06~01/07

Estimate Dividend Per Share KRW2,000~ KRW2,300

Next Earning Announcement Jul. 27(E)

COMPANY DESCRIPTION SK refines, markets, and distributes oil. The company produces a variety of petroleum products such as petroleum, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and diesel oil. SK also manufactures petrochemical products, including ethylene, benzene, paraxylene, synthetic resins, and styrene monomer. Controlling company for SK Group, SK provides financial services through subsidiaries.

Primary Market: Korea, Asia

Primary Product: Petroleum &

Petrochemical

Primary Raw Material: Crude Oil

Export/Total Sales: 43% by Volume

Page 2: 070427 TradeSheet

2

April 27, 2007 SK CorporationSK CorporationSK CorporationSK Corporation

(Unit: KRWbn)

2006 1Q 2006 4Q FY2006 2007 1Q YoY

Sales 5,278 6,111 23,652 6,074 15%

COGS 4,700 5,520 21,277 5,317 13%

Gross Income 578 590 2,374 757 31%

SG&A 248 411 1,209 281 13%

Operating Income 330 179 1,165 476 44%

Non Operating Income 427 11 655 35 -92%

- - - - Pre-Tax Income 757 190 1,820 511 -33%

1111STSTSTST QQQQUARTER UARTER UARTER UARTER PPPPERFORMANCE ERFORMANCE ERFORMANCE ERFORMANCE RRRRESULTSESULTSESULTSESULTS

SK’s earnings released on April 26 may be interpreted as somewhat disappointing.

Net income tumbled by -33% YoY, and operating income for petroleum, the

company’s bread and butter, slid by -13% YoY. Do the results give enough of

reasons for us to be disappointed, given that the recent strength of SK share price

injected high hopes for the best of everything in the minds of the shareholders? Not

so fast!

Petroleum (Unit: KRWbn)

2006 1Q 2006 4Q FY2006 2007 1Q YoY

Sales 3,814 4,215 16,643 4,084 7%

COGS 3,506 3,994 15,560 3,790 8%

Gross Income 308 221 1,083 294 -4%

SG&A 151 259 755 157 4%

Operating Income 157 -38 328 137 -13%

Petrochem (Unit: KRWbn)

2006 1Q 2006 4Q FY2006 2007 1Q YoY

Sales 1,133 1,459 5,481 1,564 38%

COGS 1,000 1,285 4,833 1,290 29%

Gross Income 133 174 648 274 106%

SG&A 44 64 198 46 6%

Operating Income 89 111 450 228 155%

E&P (Unit: KRWbn)

2006 1Q 2006 4Q FY2006 2007 1Q YoY

Sales 75 79 336 70 -7%

COGS 25 27 106 27 11%

Gross Income 51 52 230 43 -16%

SG&A 3 6 15 4 21%

Operating Income 48 46 215 39 -18%

Lubricant (Unit: KRWbn)

2006 1Q 2006 4Q FY2006 2007 1Q YoY

Sales 175 268 897 249 43%

COGS 128 179 642 162 27%

Gross Income 47 88 255 87 86%

SG&A 14 28 76 20 41%

Operating Income 33 61 179 68 105%

Others (Unit: KRWbn)

2006 1Q 2006 4Q FY2006 2007 1Q YoY

Sales 82 90 295 107 31%

COGS 42 35 136 48 13%

Gross Income 40 55 159 59 50%

SG&A 36 56 164 55 51%

Operating Income 3 -1 -6 5 39%

Page 3: 070427 TradeSheet

3

April 27, 2007 SK CorporationSK CorporationSK CorporationSK Corporation

65

70

75

80

85

Oct-06

Nov-06

Nov-06

Nov-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Dec-06

Dec-06

Dec-06

Jan-07

Jan-07

Jan-07

Jan-07

Jan-07

Feb-07

Feb-07

Feb-07

Feb-07

Mar-07

Mar-07

Mar-07

Mar-07

Apr-07

Apr-07

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Diesel 50 ppm (LHS) Diesel 50 ppm-Diesel 0.5% (RHS)

USD/bbl USD/bbl

Replacement cost of 67¢ per barrel

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-03

Mar-03

May-03

Jul-03

Sep-03

Nov-03

Jan-04

Mar-04

May-04

Jul-04

Sep-04

Nov-04

Jan-05

Mar-05

May-05

Jul-05

Sep-05

Nov-05

Jan-06

Mar-06

May-06

Jul-06

Sep-06

Nov-06

Jan-07

Mar-07

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Nigerian BL's premium to Arab Light (USD bbl, LHS)

Nigerian Bonny Light (USD bbl, RHS)

These seemingly less-than-impressive figures do not surprise us a bit. According to

our earnings estimate in our previous report, <SK: Simply Kosher for Corollary

Investing> dated April 10, 2007, we projected and penciled in the gross profit

(which we take as a real net turnover for SK) growth and operating income

growth at 12% and 34%, respectively, for this year over 2006. We had further

remarked that the company’s net income and NOPAT would stay flat because

the net income had been already overstated in 2005 and 2006, in addition to a

mounting pressure on non-cash and non-operating earnings such as foreign exchange

and equity method gains.

Our verdict is that the turnover growth and operating income growth coming

in at a robust clip of 15% and 44% should be deemed, in reality, as very nice

and pleasant surprises. As we discussed it in our previous report, the net income-

based measures provide very little insight, let alone foresight, for how the

company’s share price is going to fare in the future. That a significant number

of market participants may be taken aback by SK’s ‘seemingly’ lukewarm numbers – if

they are led astray by these results to sell their shares in the open market - will

provide those smart-money investors with a rare opportunity for an incremental

alpha-generation.

TTTTHE HE HE HE RRRREASONING EASONING EASONING EASONING BBBBEHIND OUR EHIND OUR EHIND OUR EHIND OUR PPPPOSITIVE OSITIVE OSITIVE OSITIVE SSSSTANCETANCETANCETANCE

The reasoning behind our positive stance on SK’s business and earnings going into

2007 was two folds; (1) SK’s improved ability to optimize the crude mix,

thanks to revamped facilities for hydrotreating and catalytic cracking (via

product swap with SK Incheon); and (2) SK’s internal initiatives for margin

improvement through acquisition of SK Incheon and strategic tie-up with

Nippon Oil.

Dieslization continues… And the sweet crude price remains strong… Chinese demand?

Source: DWS, Bloomberg Source: DWS, Bloomberg

We believe that the first kicker is already in effect due to the company’s

increased capacity to be able to turn out more low-sulfur diesel (of 50PPM

sulfur content), which fetches a price that’s 4~5% higher than 0.5% sulfur

gasoil. It is important to note that the company’s replacement cost of

additional Middle Distillate Unit facilities is estimated at $0.67 a barrel. In the

case of possible demand shocks across the board, SK can opt for a ‘heavier’ crude

slate with purchase of less expensive, lower API crude feedstock, thus higher gross

margin.

Page 4: 070427 TradeSheet

4

April 27, 2007 SK CorporationSK CorporationSK CorporationSK Corporation

-6

-4

-2

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

Feb-05

Apr-05

Jun-05

Aug-05

Oct-05

Dec-05

Feb-06

Apr-06

Jun-06

Aug-06

Oct-06

Dec-06

Feb-07

Apr-07

S 'pore-A rab Light Netback Margin SK's Export Netback Margin

USD/bbl

-2

-1

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Feb-05

Mar-05

Apr-05

May-05

Jun-05

Jul-05

Aug-05

Sep-05

Oct-05

Nov-05

Dec-05

Jan-06

Feb-06

Mar-06

Apr-06

May-06

Jun-06

Jul-06

Aug-06

Sep-06

Oct-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar-07

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

SK Ex-Ante Operating Profit per barrel (USD/bbl, LHS) SK Share Price

We may see a 'deep' buying opportunity soon…

What’s impressive is that the improvement in refining margin was markedly

visible despite an unexpectedly high crude price that stemmed from tension

between Iran and the UK (and the US) and recently, political unrest in

Nigeria, the world’s eighth biggest exporter. We are increasingly convinced

that the strength of refining margin can be more than a cyclical recovery,

likely reflecting in a possible supply disruption.

The second kicker has yet to be confirmed, but it is a matter of when, not if. Once

again, we stress that it is not a ‘passive’ counter against the inevitable Chinese

domination or as a merely symbolic showing toward the status of ‘regional major.’ We

essentially view this alliance as one of the very cornerstones, in the context of

‘offensive’ restructuring for SK’s Pan-Pacific strategic roadmap. Given that SK has

significantly more to gain from this tie-up than NOJ, we see little ‘transitory’ risk or

downside that may hamper or slow down the process of the ‘end’ benefits, which will

eventually permeate through the company’s very intrinsic properties, thereby

begetting the ‘new’ and ‘improved’ SK in the next cycle.

‘‘‘‘BBBBRIGHTRIGHTRIGHTRIGHT’’’’ IS IS IS IS IIIIN N N N THETHETHETHE RRRRECESSES OF ECESSES OF ECESSES OF ECESSES OF SKSKSKSK’’’’S S S S TTTTRUE RUE RUE RUE EEEEARNINGSARNINGSARNINGSARNINGS

As we speak, Asian (and global) refining margin continues to improve. Yet, SK

reported a disappointing -13% YoY drop in its petroleum operating income. Allow us

to lay out the real picture.

In its investor relations material on the 1st quarter earnings, SK noted that the

Singapore simple margin expanded to $2.47 in the 1st quarter from $1.26 the last

year while SK’s simple margin increased to $2.47 from $-1.39. SK assumed a ‘run’

mix of 11.9% Gasoline, 5.1% Naphtha, 9.9% Kerosene, 24.4% Diesel, and 46.2%

Fuel Oil for calculation of the Singapore simple margin. SK’s own simple margin,

according to the company, was comprised of 20% Naphtha, 10% Kerosene, 30%

Diesel, and 40% Fuel Oil.

This assumption can be erroneous and misleading for us to take as the basis of

forecasting the future trend or pattern on two grounds. First of all, the comparison

is not apple-to-apple; and second, SK does not include Gasoline, the lighter

and more expensive product, and instead bloats the Naphtha composition.

This case in point can delude one’s forecasting ability by the way of faulted premise if

he/she takes the stated margin ‘as is.’

We, instead, take netback price (thus margin) less Arab light crude for Singapore

benchmarks. Singapore netback margin, which averaged at $1.42 in the 1st quarter of

2005, jumped to $4.28 on the average in the 1st quarter this year.

SK’s export margin and S’pore netback margin go in tandem SK’s performance will likely surprise the mkt throughout 2007

Source: DWS, KNOC Source: DWS, KNOC

Page 5: 070427 TradeSheet

5

April 27, 2007 SK CorporationSK CorporationSK CorporationSK Corporation

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Jan-06

Feb-06

Mar-06

Apr-06

May-06

Jun-06

Jul-06

Aug-06

Sep-06

Oct-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar-07

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

SK 2007 IBES EPS Estimate (Wbn, LHS)MSCI Korea 2007 Estimate Change since the End of 2005SK Estimate Change since the End of 2005

W'000

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

FQ1 2004

FQ2 2004

FQ3 2004

FQ4 2004

FQ1 2005

FQ2 2005

FQ3 2005

FQ4 2005

FQ1 2006

FQ2 2006

FQ3 2006

FQ4 2006

FQ1 2007

FQ2 2007

FQ3 2007

FQ4 2007

Estimate Reported

According to our calculation, SK’s ‘economic’ refining margin expanded by 51%. Note

SK’s refining margin, according to the company, expanded by more than 300% from

-$1.39 to $2.47, yet its operating profit contracted by -13%.

It is realistically hard to assume that inventory costing alone can account for

this discrepancy because crude oil prices were quite stable in three preceding

months of Oct~Dec of 2006 and throughout the 1st quarter of 2007. The fact that net

income of SPC of Singapore rose 65% YoY in the 1st quarter this year - as announced

on April 24 - despite the sluggish sales growth supports our argument. We suspect

that SK’s reported operating income is an offspring of transfer pricing and

disproportional cost allotment. It essentially means that the actual cash flow will

accrue faster than the reported figures would suggest and that there would be an

upward pressure on the future profits. Our verdict is that SK’s petroleum business is

getting as good as it gets. And from the ‘slope’ of its momentum and strength of

prices, we have reasons to believe that it’s not going to cool off any time soon.

SSSSO O O O WWWWHAT HAT HAT HAT AAAARE RE RE RE WWWWE E E E GGGGOING OING OING OING TTTTO O O O DDDDOOOO????

The market generally appears to be less than positive on SK’s business outlook as it

pencils in EPS for the year at about W10,800~11,000. Although we repeatedly stated

that the net income based measures were little of utility in terms of forecasting the

future performance, if we had to make our ‘bold’ estimate, we would still come away

with the higher estimate of about W12,500~13,500.

From the end of 2005, the market participants have continually revised down its

earnings outlook on the broad market. It is now nearly 10% lower than previously

anticipated through the first half of 2006. On the contrary, SK’s earning estimate,

while inherently volatile, came off by about 5% during the same period. In

our opinion, it is, at this level, as low as it can get at this juncture. We are

very positive on SK’s performance outlook and expect the rest of the market to follow

suit.

Market-neutral alpha is not over… Upward revision is likely…

Source: MSCI, IBES, Bloomberg Source: MSCI, IBES, Bloomberg

We emphasize again that the reported figures were positive surprises, from our point

of view. We previously assumed that the turnover growth would moderate at about

3~4% in 2007 and 2008. We basically expected that much of the value-added would

come from the margin expansion, but confirmed that it accompanied the topline

expansion as well. Since the topline growth surprise would force the analysts and

managers to revise up their estimates accordingly for the next quarter – at the

shortest - we come up with a new turnover forecast with a growth of 8% from 3% for

the whole year until we see the second quarter results a quarter later.

Page 6: 070427 TradeSheet

6

April 27, 2007 SK CorporationSK CorporationSK CorporationSK Corporation

0%

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4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Sales Growth Core Operating Capital Growth ROCE Cost of Capital

0%

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4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Sales Growth Core Operating Capital Growth ROCE Cost of Capital

0

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4

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8

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12

14

16

18

-7

-6.3

-5.5

-4.8 -4

-3.3

-2.5

-1.8 -1

-0.3

0.5

1.25 2

2.75

3.5

4.25 5

5.75

6.5

7.25

+/- 1 Sigma

0

5

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15

20

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40

-4

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-2.5 -2

-1.5 -1

-0.5 0

0.5 1

1.5 2

2.5 3

3.5 4

4.5 5

5.5

We also revised the operating income projection. Although the operating margin

expanded to 7.8% in the 1st quarter, we identify a historical pattern of margin shoot-

up in 1st quarters, therefore, apply an appropriate discount coefficient of 1.27 (which

is the last three years’ average) to derive a normal level of the operating margin of

5.7% and 5.5% in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

The following charts illustrate the ‘before’ and ‘after’ of SK’s growth and fade profile

after the aforementioned adjustments were made on the basis of the ‘surprise’

coefficients. Given that the market has become more than adequately efficient, this

puts a ‘transitory’ upward pressure on the share’s central value to rise by 6~8%.

Assuming that the KOSPI remains unchanged as of the last closing of 1,553.13, we

expect a transitory ‘alpha’ of 6~8% over the next 10 sessions.

Double-wedged growth after the shakeout should be reflected Higher upside volatility in topline and margin now likely…

Source: DWS NumberMill Source: DWS NumberMill

IIIIS S S S IIIIT A T A T A T A GGGGOOD OOD OOD OOD TTTTIME TO IME TO IME TO IME TO BBBBUY UY UY UY NNNNOWOWOWOW????

Yes, we believe so. Over the last six months. SK displayed an alpha coefficient of

0.34 versus the broad market’s 0.11. In a risk-adjusted way, it generated a

20% more alpha than the broad market. Compared with its own daily price

distribution over the last 12 months, SK shares have been clearly more alpha-

generative with an intra-day return of 2% or more in 28 sessions out of the last 117 –

that’s 24% over the last 6 months compared to 19% (out of 234 sessions) over the

last 12 month.

6 Month daily return distribution for SK 6 Month daily return distribution for KOSPI

Source: DWS Source: DWS

Page 7: 070427 TradeSheet

7

April 27, 2007 SK CorporationSK CorporationSK CorporationSK Corporation

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

202005-06-15

2005-07-15

2005-08-15

2005-09-15

2005-10-15

2005-11-15

2005-12-15

2006-01-15

2006-02-15

2006-03-15

2006-04-15

2006-05-15

2006-06-15

2006-07-15

2006-08-15

2006-09-15

2006-10-15

2006-11-15

2006-12-15

2007-01-15

2007-02-15

2007-03-15

2007-04-15

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

SK/KOSPI Relative Strength (RHS)

Long SK/Short KOSPI 60D-10D Crossing (%, LHS)

`

Inflection Point

Inflection Point

Presently, the (mid-term) volatility is a friendly entity to SK’s current or would-be

shareholders as the share’s pronounced alpha over the market is viewed in the

context of an option-pricing mechanism whereby higher volatility would equate to

higher premium.

The 60D volatility of long SK position – ‘funded’ by the KOSPI – has been climbing up

since the end of 2006, as seen on the left chart. We were naturally compelled to enter

a trade to take advantage of the clear interaction effect whereas the price of

volatility was not only low (hence, a corrective reversion), but also ripe for

an upward shift under the influence from a number of positive developments

- a hopeful speculation in the market about a possible de-merger/split; continued

share buybacks; and refining margin supported on the ‘floor.’

Despite SK’s resilient outperformance over the market since November 15, 2006, we

recently identified a case of 60D-10D volatility crossing (right chart). This signals that

it could take a while until a reversal of the 60D volatility is confirmed. We would not

be hesitant to capitalize on this stronger-than-anticipated momentum.

Option pricing in effect SK’s market-neutral alpha is not yet over…

Source: DWS Source: DWS

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

05-6-14

05-7-14

05-8-14

05-9-14

05-10-14

05-11-14

05-12-14

06-1-14

06-2-14

06-3-14

06-4-14

06-5-14

06-6-14

06-7-14

06-8-14

06-9-14

06-10-14

06-11-14

06-12-14

07-1-14

07-2-14

07-3-14

07-4-14

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Long SK/Short KOSPI 60D volatility (%, LHS)

SK/KOSPI Relative Strength (RHS)

Page 8: 070427 TradeSheet

8

IMPORTANT NOTICES Equity Research for International Investors (ERII)

As of April 10, 2007, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. issued equity-linked warrants with SK as an underlying asset.

As of April 10, 2007, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. has acted as a liquidity provider for equity-linked warrants backed by

shares of SK as an underlying asset, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the covered

companies.

This report has not been distributed to any third party including institutional investors and other interest groups prior to

the public release of this report.

Analyst of the subject company or member of the analyst's household does not have any financial interest in the

securities of the subject company and the nature of the financial interest (including without limitation, whether it

consists of any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position)

This report reflects the sole opinion of the analyst (Alfred Park, Sammy Lee) without any external influences by third

parties.

Ratings DistributionRatings DistributionRatings DistributionRatings Distribution

Note: 1) Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next twelve months.

2) Although it is not part of the official ratings at ERII, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material

development.

Source: Daewoo Securities

Analyst Industry Ratings of ERII, Daewoo SecuritiesAnalyst Industry Ratings of ERII, Daewoo SecuritiesAnalyst Industry Ratings of ERII, Daewoo SecuritiesAnalyst Industry Ratings of ERII, Daewoo Securities

Ratings and Target PricRatings and Target PricRatings and Target PricRatings and Target Price Historye Historye Historye History

Share price (----), Target price (----------------), Not covered (░), Strong Buy (), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)

Investment ratings Target return

Strong Buy Relative performance of +15% or greater with high conviction

Buy Relative performance of +15% or greater

Trading Buy Relative performance of +10% or greater, but with variability/volatility

Hold Relative performance of –10% and +10%

Sell Relative performance of -10%

Overweight Industry fundamentals are improving

Market-weight Industry fundamentals are steady without any material changes

Underweight Industry fundamentals are worsening

SK Corp. [Strong Buy /TP W120,000]

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

4/05 7/05 10/05 1/06 4/06 7/06 10/06 1/07 4/07

(W)

Page 9: 070427 TradeSheet

9

IMPORTANT NOTICES Equity Research for International Investors (ERII)

Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. may have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company, or received

compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months.

This report has been provided by the ERII (Equity Research for International Investors) department of Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd.

Daewoo Securities ERII is run independently of the research division of Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. The stock ratings, target prices,

estimates and overall viewpoints of ERII may differ from the research division of Daewoo Securities. This report must be viewed as

Daewoo Securities ERII's independent opinion and must not be interpreted by any means as an official viewpoint of the research

division of Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Daewoo Securities ERII was established to service international institutional investors although

the reports are released publicly. Investors can access Daewoo Securities ERII's research through Firstcall, Daewoo research direct

(www.bestez.com), Multex and Bloomberg (DWIR).

Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. is a full-service, integrated investment banking, and brokerage firm. We are a leading underwriter of

securities and leading participant in virtually all trading markets. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a

substantial percentage of the companies covered by the research division of Daewoo Securities and Daewoo Securities ERII. Our

research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection process. Investors should

assume that Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. are seeking or will seek investment banking or other business from the subject companies

covered by this report and that the research analysts who involved in preparing this report may participate in the solicitation of such

business. Our research analysts’ compensation is determined based upon the activities and services intended to benefit the investors of

Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Like all employees of Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd., analysts receive compensation that is impacted by

overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the intuitional equities, investment banking,

proprietary trading, and private client division.

This document was prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”). Information and opinions contained herein have been

compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. The information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no

guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions

contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document

or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without

notice. This document is for information purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to

purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in

whole or in part for any purpose.

This document is for distribution in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorized persons or exempted persons within the

meaning of the Financial Services Act 1986 or any order made thereunder.

Daewoo’s U.S. affiliate, Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., distributes this document in the U.S. solely for “major U.S. institutional

investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any U.S. recipient of this document who wishes to

effect transactions in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Daewoo Securities (America) Inc.

DAEWOO SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL NETWORK DAEWOO SECURITIES CO., LTD

150-716, 34-3, Youido-dong, Yongdungpo-ku, Seoul, Korea

Tel : (822) 768-4143 Fax : (822) 768-2126

Contact: Alfred Park [email protected]

Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd.

41st floor, Tower 42, 25 Old Broad Street,

London EC2N 1HQ, U.K.

Tel : 4420-7982-8000 Fax : 4420-7982-8040

Contact: Sean Kang [email protected]

Daewoo Securities (America) Inc.

600 Lexington Avenue, Suite 301

New York, NY 10022 U.S.A.

Tel : 1212-407-1000 Fax : 1212-407-1010

Contact: Jean-Louis Lee [email protected]

Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd.

Suite 816-819, Jardine House,

1 Connaught Place, Central, H.K., China

Tel : 852-2845-6332 Fax : 852-2845-5374

Contact: H. J. Ahn [email protected]

Tokyo Representative Office

Rm. 701 Build X, 2-1-11 Nihonbashikayaba-Cho,

Chuo-Ku, Tokyo, Japan

Tel : 813-5642-6070 Fax : 813-5642-6228

Contact: John Sejung Oh [email protected]