040712 private banking - def
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PRIVATEBANKING
Where Banking Meets Investment
Eduardo MartnezPatricio Novales
Soraya Snchez
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Index
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Introduction
Source: Offshore Company India Services.
Investing in
Stocks
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Investing in Bonds
Source: COFACE: Venezuela Country Risk.
Risk
Mayor oil gasand miningresouces.
Rally of 30%since October.
Possible politicalchange.
CADIVI
SITME
BONDS
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Source: Bloomberg. Miguel Octavio; Venezuelan economist and blogger.
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Source: Economtrica.
Prices
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Source: COFACE: Chile Country Risk. Bloomberg.
Risk
Developingcountry.
Abundant
naturalresources.
Good businessenvironment.
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Source: Bloomberg.
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Source: COFACE: Germany Country Risk. Bloomberg.
Risk
Solid industrialbase.
Competitiveness
and weaksensitivity toexchange rates.
R&D.
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Source: Bloomberg.
The German Government Bond issuanceis considered a gold standard or
benchmark in Europe (even after thecreation of the Euro).
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Commodities
Discussion of the supposed commodity "supercycle"tends to focus more on the "super" and less on the
"cycle.This one could turn in 2014.The currentcommodity supercycle can be dated to 1999. Since then,the S&P GSCI index has risen fivefold (WSJ ,14-3-2012)
Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303717304577277621046368962.html
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30% of the portfolio
Commodities
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Sources: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-commodities-outlook-2011-12http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-commodity-outlook-2012-3Rabobank Report: Outlook 2012 Down, but not out, Commodity research, January 2012.
Choice 2012-13: Live CattleChicago Mercantile Exchange
Live Cattle: Futures
US Dollar Cents/Pound
Date High Low Last
Apr'12 118.325 118.325 118.325
Jun'12 115.825 115.825 115.825Aug'12 118.475 118.475 118.475
Oct'12 123.975 123.975 123.975
Dec'12 125.975 125.975 125.975
Feb'13 126.825 126.825 126.825Apr'13 127.725 127.725 127.725
Jun'13 124.800 124.800 124.800
Aug'13 125.150 125.150 125.150
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEJ12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEM12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEQ12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEV12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEZ12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEG13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEJ13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEM13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEQ13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEQ13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEM13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEJ13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEG13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEZ12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEV12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEQ12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEM12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEJ12 -
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Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204468004577167913292060748.htmlLondon Bullion Market Association 2012 Forecast, January 2012.
Choice 2012: Gold
We still anticipate significant annual increases in gold and silverprices in 2012 from strong investment demand (Morgan Stanley
report, 1-18-2012) All Forecast contributors expect gold to increase in 2012 by atleast 10%. () hit record highs again this year, with a predictedaverage high of $2,055 (London Bullion Market Association 2012Forecast)
Analyst Name 2012 High 2012 Low 2012 Average
William Adams $2,230 $1,500 $1,785Daniel Brebner $2,100 $1,545 $1,825Bayram Dincer $1,950 $1,450 $1,770Philip Klapwijk $2,005 $1,530 $1,760
Martin Murenbeeld $2,125 $1,450 $1,835
Eddie Nagao $1,800 $1,300 $1,525
Ross Norman $2,100 $1,590 $1,765Frederic Panizzutti $2,120 $1,550 $1,808Thorsten Proettel $1,950 $1,220 $1,640
Jeffrey Rhodes $1,975 $1,465 $1,727James Steel $2,050 $1,450 $1,850Anne-LaureTremblay
$2,100 $1,500 $1,775
*Edel Tully $2,500 $1,400 $2,050Matthew Turner $2,100 $1,425 $1,782
Bhargava Vaidya $1,900 $1,440 $1,600
Wolfgang Wrzesniok $2,010 $1,425 $1,750
Averages $2,055 $1,443 $1,766
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204468004577167913292060748.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204468004577167913292060748.html -
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Source: Nordic Metals & Mining, 5 October 2011, Nordea Equity Research.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/update/01/index.htm
Choice 2013: Base metals
US$/tonne London Metal Exchange
price,
4-4-2012
Expected 2013*(London Metal Exchange+Nordea+ Morgan Stanley
average)
Copper 8.451,50 8.500
Aluminum 2.059,50 2.500
Nickel 18.035,00 21.000
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USARating: AA+
Outlook:Negative
Stocks NordiccountriesRating: AAA
Outlook:
Stable
GermanyRating: AAA
Outlook:Stable
CanadaRating: AAA
Outlook:Stable
UKRating: AAA
Outlook:Stable
AustraliaRating: AAA
Outlook:Stable
Source: S&Ps credit ratings for each country http://chartsbin.com/view/1177
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USA CANADA GERMANY
2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013
GDP growth % 1.53 1.78 2.54 2.5 1.95 2.50 2.72 1.27 1.50
Inflation % 2.99 1.21 0.90 2.56 2.025 2.037 2.24 1.30 1.60
Unemployment(%)
9.09 9.04 8.54 7.65 7.70 7.24 6.00 6.15 6.39
Current account(%Balance)
-3.10 -2.12 -1.71 -3.33 -3.81 -3.51 5.04 4.92 4.78
Public Debt (%GDP)
100 105 108 34.9 36.8 37.0 82.6 81.9 80.9
Source: FMI http://www.expansion.com/economia/datosmacro.html
Macro data
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AUSTRALIA UNITED KINGDOM NORDICCOUNTRIES
(SWEDEN)
2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013
GDP growth % 1.80 3.32 3.42 1.14 1.58 2.37 4.39 3.85 3.50Inflation % 3.54 3.32 3.47 4.51 2.44 2.00 3.00 2.50 1.48
Unemployment(%)
4.97 4.80 4.80 7.75 7.81 7.76 7.37 6.57 5.77
Current account
(%Balance)
-2.18 -4.67 -5.40 -2.72 -2.30 -1.68 5.83 5.27 5.07
Public Debt (%GDP)
22.82 23.82 22.96 80.76 84.77 85.95 36.03 32.59 29.16
Source: FMI http://www.expansion.com/economia/datosmacro.html
Macro data
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NASDAQ 100OMX STOCKHOLM
INDEX
DAX INDEX ASX LIMITED FTSE 100
INDEX
Source: www.prorealtime; www.bloomberg.com
26.26%*
28.80
%*
11.11%*
12.48%*
22.2%
*
*Last six months evolution
Indexes (2009-2011)
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P/E ROE DIV.YIELD
PRICE TOBOOKVALUE
NETPROFITMARGIN
DEBT /EQUITY
Services(Wholesales)
16,8 20,6% 3,5% 5,4 2,3% 78,1
Industrial Goods21,5 13,6% 2,31% 7,6 7,0% 44,7
ConsumerGoods (brewer)
17,9 20,0% 1,4% 12 20,3% 33,2
Utilities (gas) 22 11,7% 4,1% 3 8,2% 50,1Technology(appl software)
17,5 24,9% 1,7% 10,5 23,2% 29,3
Source:http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html
Sector analysis
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P/E ROE DIV.YIELD
PRICE TOBOOKVALUE
NETPROFITMARGIN
DEBT /EQUITY
Financial
(insurance)
11,3 10,4% 2,4% 1,2 7,2% 35,5
Basic materials(agriculturalchemicals)
19,3 17,9% 1,7% 4,6 15,2% 47,1
Conglomerates 15,20 20,50% 2,05% 18,9 13,10% 123,9
Healthcare(Drugmanufacturer)
17,2 15,8% 4,4% 19,9 16,7% 72,2
Source:http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html
Sector analysis
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SAP is theleader inenterpriseapplication
software.Founded in1972, SAPapplicationsand services
enable morethan 183,000customersworldwide tooperate
profitably,
IS (M.) 2011 % 2010 % 2009Total rev 14,233 14 12,464 17 10,672
Total op ex 9,352 -5 9,873 22 8,084
Op profit 4,881 88 2,591 0.1 2,588
Profit 3,439 89 1,813 4 1,750
BS (M.) 2011 % 2010 % 2009
T current assets 9,669 36 7,143 36 5,255
T non currentasset
13,556 -1 13,696 69 8,119
T assets 23,225 11 20,839 56 13,374
T currentLiabilities
6,266 22 5,153 51 3,416
T liabilities 10,518 -4.5 11,015 126 4,883Source: www.sap.com
SAP
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SAPCF 2011 % 2010 % 2009
CFO 3,775 29 2,922 -3 3,019
CFI -1,226 -69 -3,994 1235 -299
CFF -1,176 2,520 -2,170
(IFRS) 2011 2010 %
Software rev 3,971 3,265 22%
Soft. Services rev.11,319 9,794 16%
Operating profit 4,881 2,591 88%
Operating margin 34.3% 20.8% 65%
Earnings per 2.89 1.52 90Source: www.sap.com; http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SAP:GR
SAP INDUSTRY
Curr. R. 1.54 2.9Quick R. 1.54 2.8
NWC 4340
Solvency 45%
Debt/Eq. 83% 80%
FCFE 2,844
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SAPB Market
CapRevenue Gross
marginOpmargin
P/E Dividendyield
SAP 63.35 14.23 71.25% 34.30% 18.41 0.90%
IBM software 181.85 79.97 46.90% 20.44% 16.03 1.4%
MicrosoftCorporation
203,36 54 76.38% 38.04% 11.72 2.5%
Oracle
corporation
110.12 27.72 78.31% 37.52% 15.46 0.80%
Industry 187.87 84.95 71.27% 8.00% 27.30 1.7%
Source:http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=SAP+Competitors
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SAP
Source: www.Prorealtime.com
2009-2011=30%
23/03/2012
53.5
19/09/2011
35.8
06/06/2000
61.11
04/10/2002
10.52
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BAYER AG
BAYER AG isa globalenterprisewith corecompetencie
s in thefields ofhealth care,nutrition andhigh-tech
materials.
Die Brse-Frankfurt
Source: http://www.bayer.de/de/Homepage.aspx
IS (M.) 2011 % 2010 % 2009Total rev 36,528 4 35,088 12.6 31,168
Total op ex 32,379 0.06 32,358 14.9 28,162
Op profit 4,149 51.9 2,730 -9.2 3,006
Profit 2,470 88.5 1,310 -3.6 1,359BS (M.) 2011 % 2010 % 2009
T current assets 20,068 9.5 18,318 7.8 16,993
T non currentassets
32,697 -1.5 33,188 -2.5 34,049
T assets 52,765 2.4 51,506 0.9 51,042
T currentLiabilities
13,390 28.9 10,835 20.7 8,973
T liabilities 33,494 2.71 32,610 1.6 32,091
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BAYER AG
CF 2011 % 2010 % 2009
CFO 5,060 -12 5,773 7.4 5,375
CFI -3,890 61 -2,414 60.8 -1501
CFF -2,213 -3,230 -3,246
(IFRS) 2011 2010 %
Operating profit 4,149 2,730 51.9
Operating margin 11.36 7.78 46
Earnings pershare
2.47 1.301 89.8
Dividend share 1.65 1.50 10
BAYER INDUSTRY
Curr. R. 1.5 2.15
Quick R. 0.9 1.85
NWC 9,372
Solvency 22.1%
Debt/Eq 60.8% 67.8%
FCFE 2,002Source: Bloomberg (25/03/2012); www.bayer.de
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BAYER AGB. Market
CapRevenue Gross
marginOperatingmargin
P/E Dividendyield
BAYER AG 44 36 51.2 11.36 18.05 3.11
JOHNSON &
JOHNSON
135 48.6 67.2 24.8 18.7 3.4
DOWCHEMICAL
31 45 18.8 8.8 14.9 2.9
PFIZER 127 50.536 75.7 23.2 19.4 3.9
INDUSTRY 40.7 48 53.9 18.9 17.2 4.4
Source: Bloomberg (25/03/2012)
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BAYER AG
Source: www.prorealtime.com
2009-
2011=50%
22/12/200035.8
17/03/200
310.20
19/09/20
1135.8
28/03/201253.3
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Developing Countries
Source: S&Ps credit ratings for each country http://chartsbin.com/view/1177World Bank, 2012 Economic Outlook
TAIWANRating: AA-
Outlook:Stable
BRASILRating: BBB
Outlook:Stable
10% of theportfolio
Top profitable Emerging countries ETFs 2012
(in yellow top investments in Brazil and Taiwan):Fund Name Overall Rating Risk Grade
WisdomTree Emg Mkts Eqty Inc Fd C+ B-
PowerShares DWA Emg Mkts Tech Lead C+ C+
WisdomTree Emg Mkts SmCap Div Fd C+ C+
SPDR S&P Emerging Latin America ETF C+ B-
SPDR S&P International Div ETF C+ B-
SPDR S&P Emerg Middle East&Africa C+ B-
Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF C B-
SPDR S&P Emerging Markets ETF C B-
PowerShares Emg Mkts Infrastructure C C+
2012-2014 Average TAIWAN BRAZIL
GDP +4.8% +4%
INFLATION +1.9% +4.5%
FISCAL DEFICIT -1.9% -2.9%
SECTOR GDP 10% *14%
http://chartsbin.com/view/1177http://chartsbin.com/view/1177http://chartsbin.com/view/1177 -
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Taiwan: IT sector
BloombergOCDE Brazil Country Report,
$ billionNET
INCOMEREVENEU
RATING(Fitch)
Outlook
Taiwan SemiconductorManufacturing
Co(Semiconductor)$5.55 $13.98 AAA Stable
HTC Corporation(Telecom)
$1.673 $11.95 AAA Stable
FOXCONN(Electronicmanufacturing)
$1.3 $36.33 AA+ Stable
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Brazil: Infrastructure RelatedIndustry
BloombergOCDE Brazil Country Report,www.oecd.org/country/0,3731,en_33873108_36016449_1_1_1_1_1,00.html
Toocompanies
$ billionNET
INCOMEREVENEU
RATING(Fitch)
Outlook
Vale SA (Metals/Mining) 4.57 14.85 BBB+ Stable
CSN SA ( Steel & Cement) 1.9 8.8 BBB- Positive
Itausa SA(Conglomerate:Real State, metals)
2.5 30.1 AA- Stable
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Conclusions
Uncertainty and volatility ruleglobal markets.
Hard researching effort ahead forinvestors trying to play safe.
Under a constant revision ofnumbers as challenges remain.
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Money Never Sleeps
Gordon Gekko.
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Sources Henkel Garca. Analyst and Finance Instructor.
President of Visin Inversin and Director ofEconometrica, IE C.A.Skype interview. Interviewed: 10/03/12.
COFACE. Country Risk and Economic Research.Available:http://www.coface.com/Access date: 11/03/12.
Offshore Company India Services. Available:http://www.incorporation-offshore-saves-wealth.com/privateAccess date: 10/03/12.
http://www.incorporation-offshore-saves-wealth.com/private-banks.htmlhttp://www.coface.com/http://www.incorporation-offshore-saves-wealth.com/private-banks.htmlhttp://www.incorporation-offshore-saves-wealth.com/private-banks.htmlhttp://www.coface.com/http://www.coface.com/ -
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Banco Central de Chile. Available:http://www.bcentral.cl/index.asp
Acces date: 20/03/12.
Reuters.
CIA The World Factbook.
Live cattle prices can they rise again in 2012.
Available:www.agrimoney.com/feature/live-cattle-prices---can-they-rise-again-in-2012--131.html
Access date: 4/04/12
http://www.bcentral.cl/index.asphttp://www.bcentral.cl/index.asphttp://www.bcentral.cl/index.asphttp://www.bcentral.cl/index.asp -
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http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html
www.sap.com
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SAP:GR
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=SAP+Competitors
http://www.bayer.de/de/Homepage.aspx
Bloomberg platform
S&Ps credit ratings for each country. Available:http://chartsbin.com/view/1177
FMI data http://www.expansion.com/economia/datosmacro.html
www.prorealtime