04 overall us deleveraging hides corporate re …...2019/02/14 · 04 overall us deleveraging hides...
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04 Overall US deleveraging hides corporate re-leveraging
06 What if US corporate debt were underestimated?
08 US stimulus may have kept delinquencies and spreads artificially low
Alexis Garatti, Head of Macroeconomic Research
+33(0)1 84 11 33 83
Eric Barthalon, Head of Capital Markets Research
Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
70 72 75 78 81 84 87 89 92 95 98 01 04 06 09 12 15 18
Financial sector Households
Treasury Non-corporate non-financial business sector
Corporate non-financial sector
Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18
Corporate and non-corporate non-financial debt (USD bn)
Non-financial corporate debt (USD bn)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18
US recessions (=1 if true, LHS)
Deviation of US non-financial debt from its trend (as% of GDP), RHS
Sources: National Statistics, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research Sources: National Statistics, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
16
20
17
Bank loan mutualfunds
High-yield corporatebond mutual funds
Investment-gradecorporate bond mutualfunds
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Triple B market value (USD bn,LHS)proportion of investment grade,%, RHS