032012 future of us space launch final

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Better Decisions…Better Future

Future of U.S. Space Launch: Future of U.S. Space Launch: Industry Trends and Key FactorsIndustry Trends and Key Factors

Joe Fuller

Presentation to ASA Annual Meeting

March 20, 2012

Better Decisions…Better FutureISO 9001 Registered

Overall Trends in Space LaunchOverall Trends in Space Launch

• U.S. performs 15-25 launches/year, 20-30% of global total

• Russia the long-running leader in launches

• China becoming more active; conducted more launches than U.S. in 2011 (19 vs. 18) for the first time

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Source: FAA, Futron


Trends in Commercial Space LaunchTrends in Commercial Space Launch

• U.S. a minor player in commercial launch, with market share below 20% globally (including 0 commercial launches in 2011)

• Commercial market dominated by Russia and Europe; China seeking to regain market share

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Source: FAA, Futron


Commercial Market Forecasts FlatCommercial Market Forecasts Flat

• Forecasts of conventional markets (communications, remote sensing, etc.) show little or no growth through the end of the decade

• Limits the ability of new companies to enter the commercial launch market unless they can beat incumbents on price, performance, etc.

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Source: FAA, COMSTAC


Launch Industry’s Relative SizeLaunch Industry’s Relative Size

• Global launch industry accounted for less than 3% of overall satellite industry revenues of $168 billion in 2010.

• U.S. launch industry revenues in 2010 were $1.2 billion, 28% of global total.

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Ground Equipment Launch Industry Satellite Manufacturing Satellite Services

$52.8

$93.0

$84.0

$72.6

$7.8

$13.5$10.5

$11.6

$3.0

$4.5$3.9

$3.2

$25.2 $49.9$46.0$34.3

$62.0

$12.0$2.7

$28.8

$101.3

$10.8$4.3

$51.6

Source: SIA


Key Factors Affecting U.S. Space LaunchKey Factors Affecting U.S. Space Launch

• Lack of commercial competitiveness Little commercial business for Atlas and Delta Some promise with Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy Other entrants include Orbital Sciences (Antares) and ATK/EADS

(Liberty)

• Little or no growth in existing commercial markets• Thus, need for development of new commercial markets

ISS cargo and crew, space tourism, etc. Can stimulate new demand for launch, support new entrants

• Flat or declining civil space budgets may reduce launch demand for U.S. government missions

• DOD interest in lowering launch costs EELV block buys of Atlas and Delta vehicles to lower per-unit costs On-ramps for new entrants, like Falcon and Liberty

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Role of Suborbital in U.S. Space LaunchRole of Suborbital in U.S. Space Launch

• Several companies making continued progress in the development of reusable suborbital commercial vehicles: Armadillo Aerospace, Blue Origin, Masten Space Systems, Virgin

Galactic, XCOR Aerospace Suborbital test flights may begin later this year

• These vehicles can stimulate demand in new markets, including space tourism and research Past studies have indicated significant demand for suborbital space

tourism; on the order of thousands of people per year

• These vehicles may also lead to later development of low-cost orbital vehicles for satellite launch or crew transportation

• They also expand space activity to new regions of the country, including New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Colorado.

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Summary and ConclusionSummary and Conclusion

• Launch vehicles essentially a global commodity, its future dependent on growth in commercial space products and services

• These vehicles have strategic importance as well, in the form of supporting national security and even prestige.

• Commercial space is growing 10%-11% annually, primarily in services; launch, by comparison, is relatively flat.

• Suborbital, as well as orbital crew/cargo transportation, offer potential new, growth markets.

• Role for government to support new vehicle and new market development, with the potential payoff of lower costs of space access, a more robust industry, and improved standing for the U.S. in the global space industry.

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032012 future of us space launch final

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