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Tourism Research and Forecasting

Dr. Nimit Chowdhary, Professor

You want to open a resort!What should you know?

Where would you open the resort? Is the location seasonal? What type of resort will it be? Will the resort have a theme or concept? Who will potential guests be? Who will be your competition? Where are they located?

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Tourism research: Aids tourism entities in the journey to finding

the answers to these questions As well as the many other questions that are sure

to arise

Introduction (cont’d.)

General goals for businesses: Identify market trends

Unveil economic impact, occupancy trends, and general consumer behavior

Aids in creating additional sources of possible profits Uncovers preexisting sources that are not

profitable

Research Goals

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Examines performance of certain areas in an operation

Monitors guest satisfaction

Assists in drawing attention to potential problems

Research Goals (cont’d.)

For consumers: Aids in the decision-making process

Rating systems are used as a guide American Automobile Association (AAA) five

diamond rating system

Research Goals (cont’d.)

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Descriptive research (i.e., statistical research) Aims to answer who, what, where, when, and

why? Used to describe characteristics Focuses on a particular variable (e.g., consumer

habits) Does not aim to uncover causation Does not influence variables

Categories of Research

Analytical research (i.e., explanatory research) Seeks to uncover causation

Once a pattern has been uncovered: Hypothesis may be derived Influencing factors are examined further

Not generalizable Specific to the circumstance

Categories (cont’d.)

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Predictive research Aims to make a prediction about an

occurrence

Based on past behaviors, attitudes, demographics, and generalized phenomena

Categories (cont’d.)

About Tourism Research and Forecasting

Tourism research is an objective, systematic and logical investigating of travel related problems. Tourism research has become increasingly

important to assist decision making and planning for the tourism product. In the fast changing international tourism

environment, tourism planners and managers need to respond sufficiently to external challenges.

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Tourism Research

Tourism research can help both public and private organizations to formulate policies and establish priorities.

Research is also invaluable for marketing and promotional campaigns and forms the basis for successful strategic marketing plans.

Tourism research can also be used to develop new researches by identifying new markets, new products, and new uses for established products.

The functions of tourism research

Tourism Research

Identification of the problem The identification of a problem may arise

from observations of trends or behavior in visitors. The value of the research process is in

providing users with useful and relevant information that they can implement in their decision making process.

The tourism research process

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Tourism Research

Sources of information The source of information: Primary data –

secondary data Secondary data: The data that have been

gathered by someone other than the researcher or for other purposes. Advantage: Low cost, time and convenience Disadvantage: The data may not fit the problem

that is being researched.

Tourism Research

Primary data: Obtaining the necessary data from the original sources. Types of surveys: Factual surveys which pose questions to the respondent

allowing an accurate answer rather than opinion. Opinion surveys which ask participants to express an

opinion or make an appraisal. Interpretative surveys which ask questions to gain insight

into the subject’s psychological behavior.

Sources of information

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Conducting a research; Personal interviews or face-to-face interviews Telephone interviews Self-completed questionnaires Focus group discussions Electronic surveys (Web based surveys)

Sources of information…

Tourism Research

Organizations Conducting ResearchTourism Organizations Tourism statistics: WWorld TTourism OOrganization (WTO) OOrganization for EEconomic CCooperation and DDevelopment

(OECD) PPacific AAsia TTravel AAssociation (PATA)

Sources WWorld TTravel and TTourism CCouncil (WTTC) IInternational AAssociation of SScientific EExperts in TTourism

(AIEST) EEconomic IIntelligence UUnit (EIU)

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Organizations Conducting ResearchEducational Institutions Universities and colleges Published in academic journals or presented in

tourism conferences.

Private organizations or firms Large-scale industries conduct on-going studies

for product development, feasibility and market trends. Airlines Hotels

Relationship Between Marketing and ResearchDestination Marketing Research as a planning and evaluating tool Necessity of research: Trip and traveler characteristics Inventories of accommodations, transportation modes,

attractions and facilities. Usage and load factors Visitor motivation and satisfaction Resident attitudes Impacts on environment

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Relationship Between Marketing and Research

Tourism market research process involves: Setting goals to some specific benefit, such as more

visitors, more revenue or more tax dollars. Identifying target audience Developing strategies

Positioning Competition Pricing Distributing Promotion

The tourism market research program

Relationship Between Marketing and Research

Accountability research for destination marketing

“Sound measurement of the degree or the extent to which stated goals of a specific marketing effort are being or were achieved”

Four areas to research: Is the campaign bringing about the desired change (s)? Is the campaign changing the target market? Is the appropriate measures of change being used? Is the measure of change sufficiently precise to

adequately measure the projected campaign results?

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Relationship Between Marketing and Research

Making research understandable to practitioners Gap between research and business Research that is not easily translatable into usable

information because of unfamiliar terminology or methodologies. Valuable results that are not used due to user resistance Findings that are not sufficiently distributed to concerned

parties.

Importance of communication Communication between suppliers and users of research.

How tourism demand is measured How to measure the actual demand

Elements of tourism demand Factors that promote travel are called “propensities to

travel” Factors that discourage travel are called “resistances to

travel” Forecasting tourism demand Quantitative methods Qualitative methods

The Importance of Forecasting Tourism Demand

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