03 suresh analysis of a bankÆs balance sheetjanroman.dhis.org/finance/alm - injurency/alm...
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Analysis Of A Bank’s Balance Sheet
Suresh SankaranSuresh Sankaran
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AgendaAgenda
@@Overview of the banking Overview of the banking businessbusiness
@@Types of assets and liabilitiesTypes of assets and liabilities
@@Modelling approachesModelling approaches
@@Economic capitalEconomic capital
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Salary : GBP150,000 base plus significant stock options and annual bonus
Capital planning, funding and balance sheet risk management ………… structures to help optimise the deployment of capital
US GAAP compliant structures …
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Capital planning, funding and balance sheet risk management ………… structures to help optimise the deployment of capitalstructures to help optimise the deployment of capital
US GAAP Compliant structures …US GAAP Compliant structures …
Salary : GBP150,000 base plus significant stock options and annual bonus
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Definition Of Banking
@ Banking is the art of assuming risk
@ In the exchange of money between customers…
@ Undertaken in the quest of increasing bank shareholder wealth
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Views Of Financial Institutions
@ 1930s
@ 1970s and 1980s
@ 1990s
@ 21st century
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Views Of Financial Institutions:Views Of The 1930s
@ Concern about the safety and soundness of financial institutions r Laws that limited the activities of financial institutions
@ Managers engaged in specific, legally permissible activitiesr Charged prices with legally mandated maximums
r Incurred legally determined costs
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Views Of Financial Institutions:Views Of The 1970s And 1980s@ Depositors withdrew their funds in search of higher
returns elsewhere as interest rates rose in the 1970s
@ Many financial institutions could not respond because laws of the 1930s limited interest rates they could offer
@ Volatile interest rates created profitability problems for many financial institutions
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Views Of Financial Institutions:Views Of The 1970s And 1980s@ Technology expanded competition by facilitating
the direct sale of securities by firms to investors on a global basis
@ Lower profits led some financial institutions to increase lending to riskier customers
@ Regional recessions in the late 1980s resulted in many bank failures and severe losses at US savings institutions
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Views Of Financial Institutions:Views Of The 1990s@ New regulations were imposed on banks and
savings institutions and deposit insurance funds were recapitalised
@ Mergers occurred to take advantage of new technology that allowed greater economies of scale and cross-selling opportunities
@ Globalisation resulted in profit opportunitiesr Consulting, selling products to customers abroad, and
international trading activities
@ Technology increased the use and trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and swaps
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Views Of Financial Institutions:Views Of The 1990s@ Mergers between different types of institutions
@ Increased opportunities for synergies and non-interest revenues
@ Increased risk and culture management problems
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Opportunities For The 21st Century
@ Interstate branching
@ New technology
@ Demographics
@ Globalisation
@ Less reliance on on-balance sheet products
@ Increased trade-finance activities
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How Do Real Physical Assets Differ From Financial Assets?@ Real, tangible assets are those expected to
provide benefits based on their fundamental qualities
@ A financial asset is a contract that offers a promise of payment in the future from the party that issued the contract
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Key Difference
@ The key difference between financial institutions and other firms is that most of the assets financial institutions hold are financial assets
@ Financial institutions have much higher financial leverage than non-financial firms
@ Liquidity problems result from depositors’ ability to withdraw funds at any timer Embedded optionality, one of the most crucial elements
within the A/LM framework
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Asset & Liability ManagementIs a co-ordinated Approach
to the Management of
to Achieve the Institution’s DesiredObjectives within Prudent Risk Limits
Asset & Liability ManagementIs a co-ordinated Approach
to the Management of
to Achieve the Institution’s DesiredObjectives within Prudent Risk Limits
Loans DepositsInvestments BorrowingsLiquidity Long-Term DebtFixed Assets Capital
LoansLoans DepositsDepositsInvestmentsInvestments BorrowingsBorrowingsLiquidityLiquidity LongLong--Term DebtTerm DebtFixed AssetsFixed Assets CapitalCapital
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Primary Purpose Of A/LM
Meet regulatory requirements?
Or
Activelymanage the
balance sheet?
A/L Report
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"To preserve "To preserve and protect"and protect"
The Business Case For Risk Management
@ Protect the firm’s capital from extraordinary losses
@ Stabilise earnings within a range by managing potentially volatile positions
@ Mechanism for limits
@ Meet regulatory reporting and capital requirements
@ Develop common firm-wide language to communicate risk
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An Effective A/LM Process
@ Improves financial performance
@ Controls risk exposures
@ Solidifies management team
@ Facilitates organisation change
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Management Of SourcesAnd Uses Of Funds
@ Asset uses
r How much?
r How long?
r What price?
r Risk of not receiving when due
@ Liability sources
r How much?
r How long?
r What price?
r Risk of having to pay when not due
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Financial Objectives
Long TermValue
of Capital
Short TermNet Income
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Other Objectives
@ Balance sheet growth targets
@ Capital growth and dividends
@ Markets served - markets ignored
@ Product offerings and pricing strategies
@ Desired image of organisation
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The A/LM ProcessEvaluateEvaluate
Risks/Risks/RewardsRewards
MakeMakeDecisionsDecisions
AnalyseAnalysePosition &Position &
MarketsMarkets
CommunicateCommunicatePlansPlans
MonitorMonitorResultsResults
DevelopDevelopStrategiesStrategies& Tactics& Tactics
ImplementImplementPlansPlans
GatherGatherDataData
PoliciesPoliciesProceduresProcedures
LimitsLimits
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Board of DirectorsBoard of DirectorsAuditAudit ExecutiveExecutive
ALCOALCOALCOControllersControllers TreasuryTreasury
Line DepartmentsLine Departments
Risk Monitoring
(Auditor, Risk Manager or Examiner)
Risk Risk MonitoringMonitoring
(Auditor, Risk (Auditor, Risk Manager or Manager or Examiner)Examiner)
Independence Of Risk Measurement From Rewards
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The Subtlety Of ALM
@ A/LM becomes a balancing act of all financial risks assumed to achieve the institutional objectives within board-approved risk limits
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Financial Risks
@ Market risk
@ Credit risk
@ Liquidity risk
@ Interest-rate risk
@ Basis risk
@ Operations risk
@ Currency risk
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Risk Is The Variability Of Possible Returns That Can Be Expected To Be Achieved In The Future
Returns Can Be Measured In Terms Of Changes In Both Earnings And Capital Value
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Reward Measurements
@ Earnings are measured in terms of net interest incomer Current return
@ Capital returns are measured in terms of changes in economic value of capitalr Total return
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Interest-rate Risk
The Potential Variability Of Earnings AndEconomic Value Of Equity Resulting From
Changes In Market Rates Of Interest
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Sources Of Interest-rate RiskTiming of repricing
(Mismatch risk)
Varying spread relationships(Basis risk)
Embedded options(Option risk)
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TodayToday 1 Year1 Year
NII Risk Determined By The ShortNII Risk Determined By The Short--term Balance Sheetterm Balance Sheet
@ Timing of repricing of short-term assets and liabilities primarily determine how NII changes as rates vary
@ Prepayments and repricing limits can also be an influence
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Interest-rate Risk Modelling Tools
@ Accounting perspectiverisk to net interest incomer Repricing gap analysis
r Simulation of net interest income
@ Economic perspectiverisk to value of capitalr Duration analysis
r Simulation of economic value
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Risk Measurement Requirements
@ Understand the focus and usage of the risk analysis
@ Accurate financial information
@ Explicitly-identified assumptions about the behaviour of customers, assets and liabilities
@ Desire to act upon analysisr Hedge exposures
r Leave exposures unhedged
r Take a view!
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The Golden Aphorisms
@ Giving capital to a bank is like giving a gallon of beer to a drunkr You know what will become of it, but you can’t know
which wall he will choose
@ The highest use of capital is not to make more moneyr But to make money do more for the betterment of life
SSSS
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Determine capital available
Determine capital available
Set Target ReturnsSet Target Returns
Allocate capital tobusinesses
Allocate capital tobusinesses
Measure return on capital and review
performance
Measure return on capital and review
performance
How Should Capital Be Allocated?
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“The Role Of Capital In A Bank Is To Act As A Buffer Against Future,
Unidentified, Even Relatively Improbable Losses, Whilst Still
Leaving The Bank Able To Operate At The Same Level Of Capacity”
““The Role Of Capital In A Bank Is To The Role Of Capital In A Bank Is To Act As A Buffer Against Future, Act As A Buffer Against Future,
Unidentified, Even Relatively Unidentified, Even Relatively Improbable Losses, Whilst Still Improbable Losses, Whilst Still
Leaving The Bank Able To Operate Leaving The Bank Able To Operate At The Same Level Of Capacity”At The Same Level Of Capacity”
Chris Matten, Managing Bank Capital, 1996Chris Matten, Chris Matten, Managing Bank CapitalManaging Bank Capital, 1996, 1996
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RevenuesRevenuesRevenuesReturn
onAssets
ReturnReturnonon
AssetsAssets
Returnon
Equity
ReturnReturnonon
EquityEquity
Risk-AdjustedReturn on
Capital
Return onRisk-Adjusted
Capital
RiskRisk--AdjustedAdjustedReturn onReturn on
CapitalCapital
Return onReturn onRiskRisk--AdjustedAdjusted
CapitalCapital
Risk-AdjustedReturn onRisk-AdjustedCapital
RiskRisk--AdjustedAdjustedReturn onReturn onRiskRisk--AdjustedAdjustedCapitalCapital
LeadingLeadingEdgeEdge
MethodologyMethodology
Evolution Of Performance Measures
R RoA RoE RaRoC RaRoRaC
RoRaC
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From Roe To RAPM
@ Deregulation of the banking industry
@ Regulatory requirements
@ More demanding shareholdersr Focus on businesses which generate superior returns
@ More experienced rating agencies
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Capital Management
@ Ensure that the bank has a commensurate overall capital levelr Expectations of ratings agencies
r Internal assessment of risk taken
r Regulatory requirements
r Returns expected by shareholders
] Not just dividends but capital appreciation and better returns
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Role Of Capital
@ Bufferr Buffer to absorb those outcomes which fall below the
expected value
r More than a cushion against “normal” losses in any period
r Important signal to potential creditors
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Capital - A Generic Definition
@ The amount required to be held tor Manage the risk of loss in value of exposures and
thereby
] Protect the depositors / creditors against loss
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How Much Capital?
@ Most banks hold equity far in excess of requirements
@ Conservative approach?
@ Pressure from rating agencies?
@ Arisen by accident?
@ Bad trend
r Banks now under-pricing loans
] Nothing else in which to invest surplus capital
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Capital Management Techniques
@ More art than science
@ No clear answer to “how much”?
@ Changes with management goals
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Capital Allocation - Does It Help?
@ Bankers Trustr Pioneered RAROC in the late 1970s
@ No substitute for loss of reputationr Derivatives “**** ups”
@ Could not prevent takeover by Deutsche Bank
@ “The technocrat trap”
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Making The Most Of Capital
@ Increase amount of return earned per unit of capital
@ Decrease the amount of capital required per unit of return
@ Focus not revolutionaryr Non-existent in boardrooms of most banks
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Allocation - Driven By Constraint
@ “Capital is a major business constraint”r This is superior to an approach which leaves this to
chance
r Any method will produce superior returns
] “Some risk adjustment is better than none”
r Allocation will not automatically result in better performance
r No or poor allocation will certainly result in inferior performance
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RAPM@ RORAA
@ RAROA
@ RORAC
@ RAROC
@ RARORAC?!?!?
All these techniques are based on the potential volatility of thAll these techniques are based on the potential volatility of the e present value of a particular transaction. All these approachespresent value of a particular transaction. All these approaches
can be classified as “assetcan be classified as “asset--volatility” based techniquesvolatility” based techniques
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Value-At-Risk based measures
- Bottom Up
Approaches To Measuring Economic Capital
Earnings-at-Risk based measures
- Top Down
Risk CapitalRisk Capital
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The Bottom-up ApproachIn a Bottom-up approach, risk capital is measured at transactional level
and aggregated up to a total bank level
Transaction 1
Transaction 2Transaction 2
Transaction xTransaction x
Transaction YTransaction Y
Transaction level Bank level
Lob ALob A
Line of Business level
Lob BLob B
Lob CLob CTransaction nTransaction n
BankLevel
BankLevel
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Value-at-risk (V@R) Based MeasuresA probability statement about the potential change in value of a portfolio resulting from changes in market
factors over a specified time interval
A probability statement about the potential change in value of a portfolio resulting from changes in market
factors over a specified time interval
Distribution of Changes in ValueVAR
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
X %X % of theDistribution
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Economic Capital
“…Capital is required as a cushion for a bank’s overall risk of unexpected loss … adequate pricing and reserves should provide sufficient earnings to absorb expected loss …”
“…Capital is required as a cushion for a bank’s overall risk of unexpected loss … adequate pricing and reserves should provide sufficient earnings to absorb expected loss …”
US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
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Frequency Distribution Of Default Rates
000%
005%
010%
015%
020%
025%
030%
035%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Expected Loss Risk capitalUnexpected Loss
Pro
bab
ility
Covered by pricing and provisioning Covered by capital and/or provisions
Quantified using scenario analysis and controlled with concentration limit
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RAPMRAPM
ReturnReturn
EconomicEconomicCapitalCapital
Credit risk capitalCredit risk capital
Market risk capitalMarket risk capital
Operational risk capitalOperational risk capital
New business/other capitalNew business/other capital
+
+
+
RevenuesRevenues
Credit provisionsCredit provisions
Direct costsDirect costs
Allocated costsAllocated costs
Funding creditFunding credit
-
-
-
-
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Value At Risk Based MeasuresDisaggregated Risk Approach@ Consider the risks separately
@ Use existing credit risk measure to obtain “credit risk capital”
@ Use VAR to obtain “market risk capital”
@ Convert operational risk measure to “operational/ business risk capital”
Credit RiskCapital
Market RiskCapital
Operational/BusinessRisk Capital
EconomicCapital = + +
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Evaluating The Alternatives: Top-downIn a Top-down approach, risk capital is measured at consolidated level as a function of Rating Agency perception and allocated to each Lob on the basis
of the Lob’s contribution to consolidated Earning Volatility
LOB Contribution to Earnings Volatility
Business Unit ABusiness Unit A
Business Unit BBusiness Unit B
ConsolidatedEarningVolatility
ConsolidatedEarningVolatility
Business Unit CBusiness Unit C
Business Unit DBusiness Unit D
MarketPerceptionMarket
Perception
RatingAgency
Perception
RatingAgency
Perception
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Capital Planning -Earnings volatility
based approach
”How much capital must I invest, at the risk-free rate, in
order to generate a return sufficient to offset the potential downside in
earnings?”
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RAPMRAPM
ReturnReturn
EconomicEconomicCapitalCapital
RevenuesRevenues
Credit provisionsCredit provisions
Direct costsDirect costs
Allocated costsAllocated costs
Funding creditFunding credit
-
-
-
-
EAREARrr
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-240 -180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180 2400%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Earnings-at-risk: Historical Distribution
300
Earnings at Risk
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Unadjusted returnscannot be directly compared
Return
Risk
12 3
Risk adjustment allows returnsto be directly compared
1
2
3
Return
Risk
A Measure That Moves From Many Dimensions To One
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Integrated Risk Adjusted Performance Measurement
ShareholderValue
Market RiskMeasurement
Market RiskMeasurement
Credit RiskMeasurementCredit Risk
Measurement
Operational RiskMeasurement
Operational RiskMeasurement
Funds Transfer Pricing -
Funds Transfer Pricing -
Credit Loss Forecasting
Credit Loss Forecasting
ABC/Cost Allocation
ABC/Cost Allocation
Treasury MismatchCenter
Treasury MismatchCenter
Risk BasedPerformanceMeasures*
* ProductsCustomers
LOBsIncentives
EconomicValue
Approaches
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Risk Capital for:Market Risk µ 900.00Credit Risk λ 1100.00Operational Risk η 500.00
Total Risk Capital calculated by:Simple aggregation µ+λ+η 2500.00
Square root of sum of squares Α 1506.65
222 )()()( ηλµ ++=A
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Converting E@R ToEconomic Capital@ If E@R = CHF2667k
@ How much capital invested at a risk-free rater Will generate E@R?
@ Economic capital = r Where r = risk-free rate
r At 5%, economic capital = CHF53.32m
rRE @
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RORAC Calculations
@ RORAC (A)
@ RORAC (B)
@ RORAC (C)
ReturnReturnTotal Available Equity * EAR of businessTotal Available Equity * EAR of business
Ear of bankEar of bank
Return Return –– Opportunity cost of Regulatory CapitalOpportunity cost of Regulatory Capital
Earnings at RiskEarnings at Risk
ReturnReturnEarnings at Risk * Earnings at Risk * 100100
RiskRisk--free ratefree rate
((E@RE@R / Risk/ Risk--free Rate)*100 = Economic Capitalfree Rate)*100 = Economic Capital
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Economic Capital As Insurance
@ Normal insurance, provided in the form of equity capitalr Cost = excess return over the risk-free rate
@ Adversity insurance, provided by debt holdersr Cost = excess yield which debt holders require over the
risk-free rate
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Economic Capital As Insurance
@ Calamity insurance, provided by depositorsr Difference between interest rate offered on deposits
] covered by statutory reserves and
r that offered on similar deposits
] not covered by statutory reserves
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RAROC Versus RORAC!
@ No really correct answer as to which is better
@ Best approach a synthesis of the two approaches
r E@R as a generic tool to allocate capital to business units
r V@R for understanding the volatility within individual divisions
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RAROC/RORAC - A Comparison
Directly linked to shareholders’ perspective of risk
Questionable aggregation of heterogeneous risks
Inexpensive, easy to calculateExpensive to build and run
Little statistical appreciationHeavy reliance on statistics
Covers all business risksRequires explicit modelling of all risks
Provides no such leversProvides levers for control
Backward lookingForward looking
Cannot be used for pricingCan be used in pricing tools
Not intuitiveIntuitive
Earnings-VolatilityAsset-Volatility
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The Four Perspectives Of Capital
TreasurerTreasurer Bank SupervisorBank SupervisorRules &Limits
ManagementManagementPreferencesPreferences
Risk ManagerRisk Manager ShareholderShareholder
RegulatoryCapital
Requirements
TargetRisk Profile
CapitalRequirements
TargetRisk Profile
Required return for Risk undertaken
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Bringing It All Together
@ Assess the overall risk appetiter Take a decision as to the risk profile
@ Allocate capital targetsr Use an admixture of top-down and bottom-up
@ Optimise available capital
@ Measure capital usage and returns
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Analysis Of A Bank’s Balance Sheet
Suresh SankaranSuresh Sankaran