02_13h55 - 14h20-20131127-shtp annual conference 2013-fabmax
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SHTP’s 1st Annual Conference 2013 November 28, 2013 Ho Chi Minh City
Opportunities in 200mm Semiconductor technology markets
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Eduard Hoeberichts -‐ Biography Eduard Hoeberichts has been in the semiconductor industry since 1995, and has a broad experience in business management, lithography and technology development for IC manufacturing for Moore’s Law and More than Moore Applications. Founded FabMax in 2012 to focus on realizing larger technology and funding projects and “innovation”. www.fab-‐max.com Chairman of SEMI SEA Global Interest Group since 2009. www.semi.org ASML (95-‐2007) initially as Director of Investor Relations (95-‐96) and as the SVP ASML Division Special Applications-‐200mm for 10 years (97-‐07). Founder and CEO of Simax International in 2007 which offered customers a service and support solution for equipment. Led the company to grow to $25M sales in 4 years. Raised $25M in funding. Left as CEO in 2012.
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Outline
§ Semiconductor industry Ø Market trends
§ 300mm vs 200mm Ø “Moore’s Law vs “More than Moore”
§ Closer look at markets Ø LED’s, MEMS, Power/analog
§ 200mm plays important role § Examples of device innovation
Ø MEMS Ø CNT Sensor
§ Innovation for new region -‐ Vietnam
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v I would like to thank SEMI for the support and use of the material in this presentation.
Acknowledgement
SEMI: The Global Association
• Global Association ~2,000 member companies
• Events – SEMICON, SOLARCON
• Standards • Advocacy • Market Research • EHS • Semiconductor, LED, FPD,
MEMS, PV, plastic electronics, emerging markets
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“Plenty of room at the bottom”
Back in 1959 it was only six years since Crick and Watson had determined the double-‐helix structure of DNA, the laser and Silicon Valley were still taking shape, Feynman's Caltech rival and colleague Murray Gell-‐Mann had yet to propose the quark model of particle physics, and scanning probe microscopes and carbon nanotubes were still decades away.
Innovation today for most semiconductor applications not in 300mm
+
≈ Innovation and opportunites in <= 200mm
Evolution of Chip Demand
Semiconductor Revenues- Low single-digit revenue growth
256 249226
298 300 292 298313 325 333
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Semiconductor Revenue Annual Growth
Source: SIA/WSTS historical year end reports, WSTS June Forecast
Glo
bal S
emic
ondu
ctor
Rev
enue
US
$B
(bar
gra
ph)
Ann
ual G
row
th %
(lin
e gr
aph)
Economic Trends: 2014 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts:
5,6%
5,6%
6,5%
8,0%
9,0%
9,6%
10,0%
5,1%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
WSTS (June 13)
Cowan LRA (Aug 13)
Gartner (Sept 13)
IHS iSuppli (Sept 13)
IC Insights (Aug 13)
Henderson Ventures (Sept 13)
VLSI (Oct 13)
Semico (Aug 13)
Source: SEMI
Fab Equipment Spending- Driven by Foundry and Memory (NAND Flash)
US$ Millions
FAB EQUIPMENT SPENDING BY PRODUCT TYPE
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, Sept. 2013
Silicon Wafer Shipment Forecast
Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2012; SEMI October 2013
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Chip Manufacturer (IDM) – Perspective 200mm Fabs Largest Nr. – While 300mm Investment Dominant
≤ 200mm wafersize ± 900 fabs ww >90nm node
450 mm technology < 14 nm node? 3 investors?
300mm wafersize ± 100 fabs ww >14nm node?
Source iSupply 2011
??
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Innovation in processes & materials
Source: 2007 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)
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A mix of IC and new materials for <300mm manufacturing technology
27/11/13 13
More than Moore Mainstream Semi
0.1 µm
0.2 µm
0.4 µm
0.8 µm
1.6 µm
Inte
gra
tion
Den
sity
(d
esig
n r
ule
)
Integration of functionality
Electronics RF Optics Mechanics Chemistry Biology
Moo
re’s
Law
Le
adin
g E
dg
e S
emi
Opto- MEMS
Photonics
Lab-on- a-chip
Biochips 3D IC
TFH
Compound Semiconductors
MEMS
≤200mm 300mm
LED
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Analog and Power Devices-‐ Installed Fab Capacity by Wafer Size = 200mm shift
2013 Capacity = 2,910 million wafers/month
(in 200 mm equivalents)
2003 Capacity = 1,510 million wafers/month
(in 200 mm equivalents)
Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast, Sept. 2013
LED Dedicated Fabs Changing LED Landscape = 100mm -> 200mm!
4 5 8
7 16 70
1 2 10
7 9 18 China
Japan
S. Korea 3 8 14
SEAsia 0 0 4
Taiwan 14 24 42
2001
36
127,124
Year (begin operation)
Total count of LED fabs*
Capacity in 4-inch EQs w/m
2006
64
376,400
2014
166
~2,700,000
Americas Europe/Mideast
*Fab number includes both LED epitaxy and chip facilities.
World LED Capacity Trend – 4 countries lead LED Epitaxy capacity (4” equivalent per month)
Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast , Sept. 2013
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MEMS
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MEMS – “Transition to 200mm”
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§ Power/Analoge IC’s – largest capacity growth in 200mm § LED’s
Ø 100mm to 150mm transition, 200mm future? Ø >100 new fabs and new IDM’s in last 10 years
§ MEMS Ø in “transition” to 200mm, but still lot 100/150mm Ø Many new fabs and IDM’s
Conclusion: The combination of existing IC technology with device (design and materials) innovation is a fertile environment for new technologies and companies to incubate. One of the keys for success is the establishment of a complete infrastructure, from education to design to fab and fab support and access to capital.
Conclusion: “200mm signiYicant innovation”
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Examples of new products
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Carbon Nanotubes 50 years later..
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Healthcare to POC
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CNT Sensors Xtreme Sensitive!
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New region’s – 3 Requirements
Infrastructure * People * Training * Industry * Funding
Global “Competition” * Participate in Global Technology Network * Compete globally with excellent products
+ “Patience” * It can take many years to develop success
* Examples China, Russia
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CẢM ƠN QUÝ VỊ
Thank you for your attention