02 demography steering committee draft

R W A N D A N A T I O N A L L A N D U S E D E V E L O P M E N T M A S T E R P L A N - D E M O G R A P H Y

02_Demography_SteeringCommitteeDraft 1 3/30/2010



POPULATION AND LAND USE ............................................................................................. 3 POPULATION GROWTH ...................................................................................................... 3

Present Population ..................................................................................................... 3 Population Increase Year 2000 - 2020 ...................................................................... 4 Scenarios .................................................................................................................... 5

POPULATION STRUCTURE ................................................................................................. 6 Age Structure .............................................................................................................. 6

FERTILITY .......................................................................................................................... 6 Fertility Rates .............................................................................................................. 7

International Comparisons .................................................................................... 7 Education and Labour Market for Women ........................................................... 7 Marriage and Family .............................................................................................. 7

Future Fertility Rates .................................................................................................. 8 MORTALITY ....................................................................................................................... 9

Migration ..................................................................................................................... 9 Rural-urban population distribution ..........................................................................10 Migration 2010-2020 ................................................................................................11

Illegal Immigration ................................................................................................11 POPULATION SCENARIOS 2020 .......................................................................................11

Growth Rates ............................................................................................................12 Population Distribution ..............................................................................................13 Age Structure ............................................................................................................16

HOUSEHOLDS .................................................................................................................16 Household Scenarios 2020 ......................................................................................17

LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................19

LIST OF TABLES ..............................................................................................................19

The National Land Use and Development Master Plan is referred to as the Plan in the text.



Population and Land Use

A country‟s population and how it is geographically distributed can influence

the state of land use through the rate of growth and household formation,

access to basic services and infrastructure, age distribution and employment

opportunities, rural and urban environment and sustainable use and access

to natural resources. The impact of human needs versus available

resources, in the context of emerging economies, leads to increasing

constraints to provide the growing population with basic human rights; food,

shelter, access to quality social services and infrastructure.

Rwanda, still considered the most densely populated country in Africa at

369.21 per square kilometer, continues to advocate in policy and practice a

pragmatic effort that should reduce the current growth rate of 3.2%, which is

notable higher that the 2.6% projected by the 2002 National Census.

Interesting to note is that in spite of the targeted reduced population rate of

2.3% in 2010 by the Vision 2020. This directly impacts on the interventions

that have been adopted since publishing Vision 2020 to reduce population

growth and causes the government to rethink strategies that will enable the

projected population growth to be realized otherwise, by 2020, population

will double the 2002 census to become 16 million. On the other hand, the

reason why current growth rates do not tally with targeted projections may

be that the targets in the Vision 2020 are truly ambitious.

In this demographic analysis, optimal scenarios on population structures and

projections will be defined in correlation with national statistics and targets to

harmonize with ongoing national development options. It is the intention of

the National Land Use and Development Master Plan (the „Plan’) to draw

from ongoing national development strategies to build comprehensive sector

specific land use guidelines.

1 Rwanda Development Indicators published in April 2007 by the National Institute of Statistics.

Population Growth

The Plan is based on two scenarios for a future development of population and economy

– a High Growth Scenario and a Low Growth Scenario. By using scenarios rather

than forecasting just one single path of development, an interval will be established

within which the future population growth most likely will fall with respect to the

uncertainty of assumptions.

The future population is based on assumptions on the future development of fertility,

mortality and migration. These assumptions are based on analyses of the present

situation, the development during the past centuries and international experience on the

development of those factors.

Present Population

The most recent comprehensive population census was conducted in August 2002

following the ones of 1991 and 1978. On a national level, Rwanda has experienced a

dramatic demographic change in the last decades with a rapidly increasing population.

According to the national Census 2002, Rwanda had a population of 8.2 million

inhabitants in comparison to the previous national census of 1991 where the population



was at about 7.2 million. This, according to the population census,

estimates a mean annual population growth of 1.2%. The latest

demographic report from the National Institute of Statistics (NISR July 2009)

puts current population at approximately 10 million. This is not so far from

the 2007 statistics derived from a series of demographic and housing

surveys that estimate the current population to be about 9.7 million2. The

population in urban areas is 18.0% with an annual urban population growth

rate of 4.2%3.

The Rwandan population is generally very young with high dependency ratios. According to the 2002 census, more than two-thirds of the country population was under the age of 20. Recent estimates show that this trend is continuing with under 5s constituting 16.3% of the population while those below the age of 15 make up 42.1%. 15-64 years are 55.2% of the total population while only 2.7% are 65 years and above (Millennium Development Goals, Country Report 2007). On the other hand, the current population structure implies that a substantial number of Rwandans will establish families and enter the housing market during the coming 10 years.

Population Increase Year 2000 - 2020

A mean rate of yearly natural increase of the Rwandan population is

estimated at 2.5 % for the whole planning period 2010 - 2020. That would

imply an increase of the total population in the Rwanda of up to 13 million by

the year 2020 from about 10 million in 2010.

However, the actual population growth 2002-2009 has been faster with an

average of 3% than the projected 2.6% by the 2002 national census or 2.5%

by the Vision 2020. In as much as the statistics present a higher population

2 The Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning has been conducting regular demographic and housing surveys whose results have been interpreted by the National Institute of Statistics (NISR). The estimated value of 9.7 Million has been provided by NISR in the Rwanda Development Indicators 2007. 3 Rwanda Development Indicators, 2007

growth, the targeted population for 2010 in the Vision 2020 is almost the same as the

actual in the new projections; Vision 2020 targets a population of 10,200,000 with an

average growth rate (2000-2010) of 2.6%, and the latest statistics (2009) estimate the

population of 2010 to be 10,412,820.

Figure 1: Population increase in Rwanda (actual and projected)

Population Increase 2000-2020

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

Siz

e (

millio

ns)

Source: Census 2002; National Population Projections, NISR 2009

The soon to be achieved population of about 10.4 million in 2010 was projected in the 2002 population census to be achieved in 2012. This validates the fact that the population growth in 2002-2009 has been very high compared to projected and expected population growth.



Scenarios

The population projection (made by the National Institute of Statistics, July

2009) has three scenarios; high growth rate, medium growth rate and low

growth rate. The low growth rate which takes into consideration Vision 2020

targets, realizations, conditions and provisions indicates an ambitious

population growth to about 13 million by the year 2020. The medium

growth rate, is an extrapolation of past into the future and is heavily informed

by the reliable Demographic and house surveys of 1992, 2000, 2005 and

2007 and indicates a growth to about 13.8 million by the year 2020. The

high growth rate scenario presupposes constant current population growth

rates where there are no assumptions on interventions to control growth and

indicates a growth to about 14.1 million by the year 2020. The overall

components of these three scenarios include; fertility projections,

mortality projections, migration projection and sex ratio at birth. It is

important to note that these projections have taken into consideration recent

population trends to the extent that in 2000 it was estimated that, with no

interventions to control population growth, the Rwandan population was

expected to double by 2020

The population scenarios for the Plan are based on analyses of the factors

influencing growth, i.e. the number of births and deaths and the migration to

and from the country. The age structure is of great importance, since a

young population generates more births and fewer deaths than an old

population. The other factor determining population development - migration

- is also dependent on the age structure, since the migrants most often are

quite young, around 25 years of age. A positive net-migration to the country

will imply more people in child-bearing ages which will give more births and

an indirect increase of the population.

The population in the Rwanda is very young, mainly because of high fertility

rates. The development of the fertility rates thus is a very crucial factor for

the forthcoming population development. Therefore, scenarios on different

fertility rates will be used when studying the population development.

The development of the death rates is less important, since the mortality of a young

population will only have a minor influence on the population growth. Hence,

assumptions on the death rates are the same for all scenarios.

The migration, however, is difficult to foresee. Therefore it is important to base scenarios

for migration on different assumptions. The migration flows are dependent on the

economic development.

Land-use applications (Needs assessment,

Risk & Suitability Analysis and investment

planning) in the Rwanda should be based on

a future population increase according to two

scenarios – a High Growth Scenario and a

Low Growth Scenario. The future

population growth will most likely reach at

least the level of the Low Growth Scenario

but not exceed the level of the High Growth Scenario. The two population scenarios are

based on different assumptions of fertility rate and of migration. They are combined

according to the table below. The scenarios are named High Growth and Low Growth.

Table 1: Population Scenarios

Fertility Migration

High Growth

Scenario

High fertility

rate

High net

migration

Low Growth

Scenario

Low fertility

rate

Low net

migration

The assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration will be analyzed more in detail in the

following text.



Population Structure

Age Structure

The age structure in the Rwanda has been closely linked to the high rate of

natural increase. In 2002, according to recent census, 42.1% of the

Rwandan population was younger than 15 years of age. This share has

been increasing up to an estimated 42 % in year 20084. Only a 2.5 % were

older than 65 years in 2002 a %age that reduces in 2008 to 2.52%.5 For the

planning period (2008-2020), the following figures show the age structure in

the Rwanda.

Young population as future potential for economic development (workforce

engine);

Table 2: Population in Age Groups, Rwanda 2008-2020

Year 0-4 5-14 15-49 50-64 65+

2008 17.28 24.96 49.25 6 2.52

2010 17.46 24.86 48.9 6.39 2.39

2012 17.5 25.05 48.46 6.68 2.31

2014 17.39 25.33 48.18 6.79 2.31

2016 17.14 25.85 47.82 6.82 2.37

2018 16.92 26.3 47.53 6.8 2.45

2020 16.72 26.41 47.53 6.79 2.56

Source: National Population Projections, NISR July 2009

4 Preliminary report for the Demographic and Health Survey of 2008

Fertility

Rwanda has experienced an interesting pattern in fertility rate over the past 15 years; as

seen in figure below;

Figure 2: Fertility rate 1992-2007

FERTILITY RATE

6,2

5,8

6,1

5,5

5

5,2

5,4

5,6

5,8

6

6,2

6,4

1992 2000 2005 2007

Year

Perc

en

t

Total Fertility Rate

Source; Demographic and House Survey 2008; in Population Projections, NISR July 2009



The reason for the wave pattern is the effect on the productive age groups

which came as a result of 1994 genocide. In 2005 the non productive age

group matured. The decrease from 2005 onwards indicates family planning

impact.

Fertility Rates

The number of births in a population differs according to the number of

women in different age groups and according to the fertility rates for each

specific age group. These data are called age specific fertility rates.

Summing up all age specific fertility rates result in the total fertility rate,

which gives a measure on the total number of children per woman during

her lifetime if the fertility rates are stable over time.

The population of a country is said to pass “the demographic transition”

when it passes from a high mortality and high fertility situation to a low

mortality and low fertility situation. This transition is dependent on improved

economic and health conditions. With low mortality it is sufficient with a

fertility rate, of 2.1 children per woman to get a stable and balanced

population. In many economically developed countries fertility rate per

woman is even lower.

I N T E R N A T I O N A L C O M P A R I S O N S

There is a common international trend of declining fertility. Factors

influencing this development are the level of literacy, GDP per capita and the

labour participation of women respectively. Among countries with a GDP per

capita exceeding 25,000 USD the total fertility rate is almost always lower

than 2.0. However, in emerging economies, the natural trend is increasing

fertility also recording some of the highest population numbers and

densities. In Rwanda, the total fertility rate averages 5.9 in the past 17

years. Rwanda currently has the highest population density in Africa of

about 370 per square kilometer.

E D U C A T I O N A N D L A B O U R M A R K E T F O R W O M E N

Rwandan women have within a short period obtained impressive changes in terms of

gender equality. The most perceptible change is the presence of women in higher

education and in professional positions. Women have made a leap forward on the labour

market and referring to the EICV 2 survey, the gender contribution on the labour market

is more or less the same. The difference is in the nature of jobs where women

predominantly feature in the informal sector and men dominate the formal sector.

The level of education of woman is also a key factor in family planning and birth control.

In Rwanda, the total fertility rate among with no education is 6.9 %, dropping to 6.1 % for

those with primary education and 4.3 amongst woman with secondary or higher

education.

On intermediate level of education and at universities, female students make up

approximately 40% which is a serious drop from lower education where female students

average 51%. Traditional attitudes on which type of work is suitable for women render

them positions in teacher training institutions. However, women make up only about 40%

in the teaching profession. Additional statistics show the following distribution in selected

sectors: about 20% doctors, 36% in justice and approximately 34% in local government.

Rwanda is popular for the majority of women in the lower chamber of Parliament, 56%.

Although supporting statistics are not available, it is a tendency to find majority of women

in sectors like public health, economy, computer science, languages and social sciences.

The above statistics of young women‟s extensive partaking in the educational system,

will lead to a growing female presence in working life. The currently relatively low figures,

of an average fertility rate of 6.1 among women who have not gone to school compared

to 3.8 for women with an education of secondary school and higher, are bound to

change once large amounts of young women have finalized their education.

M A R R I A G E A N D F A M I L Y

Higher education for women automatically leads to later marriages and higher age at

birth of first child, but in Rwanda legal marriage age is comparatively high to begin with;

minimum legal age of marriage has is 21 according to the family law of 1988. These

quite considerable changes in marriage habits also influence the fertility rate, since



biology sets a limit to child birth later in life. The decrease of child mortality

has also contributed to this development.

Another factor influencing fertility is the country‟s shortage of housing and

the growing cost for housing. Housing problems may postpone marriage

plans and child birth, especially when attitudes are changing and young

couples in cities prefer a dwelling of their own to moving in with their peers.

In Rwanda, this trend has not yet picked up; most young single female

adults either leave with their parents, relatives or peers in the urban area.

However, the situation is different for single mothers, who end up find their

own dwelling.

Family size is decreasing slowly in Rwanda. The tendency is now an

average of 4.3 members per household. There is a strong modernization of

attitudes at present; most parents want their children to get a good

education.

Figure 3: Family planning will have to be accepted by the general public to reduce hazardous population growth rate.

Future Fertility Rates

With a higher degree of women participation in the work force, a declining fertility level is

foreseen. The fertility is generally higher in rural areas than in urban areas. The share of

people living in urban and rural areas respectively differs between the Provinces. Future

fertility rates in the Provinces will be dependent on the future educational level for

women, the participation of women in the workforce and on the distribution of population

in urban and rural areas.

Assumptions have been made for the future fertility rates in the Rwanda. Different

assumptions are made for every province. The assumptions are partly based on total

fertility rate presented in the UN World Population Prospects.

For the High Growth Scenario the assumption is that the present level of fertility in every

Province will decline with a rate that follows the ones used by United Nations for

Rwanda. The Low Growth Scenario assumption is that the decline will only be half as

rapid as in the low UN scenario. The reason for adjusting the low rate is that the

Provinces of Rwanda have already reached quite low levels. For the High Growth

Scenario the assumption is that the fertility rates will continually decrease from the 2010

level to 85 % of that level by 2020. For the Low Growth Scenario fertility rates will

continually decrease from the 2010 level to 75 % of that level by 2020. The calculations

result in the following average fertility rates for the Rwanda:

Table 3: Total fertility rate (children per woman), Rwanda, 2008-2020

Period High Growth Scenario

Low Growth Scenario

2008 5.5 5.46

2010 5.5 5.38

2012 5.5 5.30

2014 5.5 5.22

2016 5.5 5.14



2018 5.5 5.06

2020 5.5 4.98

Source: National Population Projection, NISR July 2009

Mortality

The crude death rate has declined as a result of improved standard of living,

income increase, increase of health awareness and the availability of

medical treatment. People have generally become older as a result of

improved health care and related services.

Table 4: Total mortality Rate in Rwanda in the period 2005-2008

Infant mortality rate per 1000 live births

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mortality Rate 86 86 62 62

Under 5 years mortality rate per 1000 live births

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mortality rate 152 152 103 103

Maternal mortality rate per 100,000 births

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mortality Rate 750 750 690 690

Source: National Statistics Year Book, 2009

According to mortality rates per country published in 2007 on the UNICEF website,

Rwanda has one of the highest mortality rates. Child mortality rate statistics on Rwanda

do not show so much difference in the past three decades, with estimates published in

the Disease and Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa, by UNICEF, recording it at 206 in 1960

to 220 for every 1000 live births in 2000. This figures are quite alarming when you make

a reference to recent statistics provided by the National Institute of Statistics (see table

2.5 above) which leads to question the rates in the mentioned report. When compared

with other African nations Rwanda is ranked among the top 10 with Sierra Leone leading

with 314 for every 1000 live births, followed by Angola and Niger with 249, 'Hill K. et al,

Trends in child mortality in the developing world: 1960 to 1996, UNICEF' .

Table 5: Mortality rate for females in the period(1997-2007)

Sex Infant

mortality

rate

Mortality rate

of ages 1-5

Under 5

mortality rate

Male 83 69 146

Female 71 55 123

Source: Interim Demographic House Survey in July 2009 Population Projections report

Migration

The population changes from the period 1978-1991 were marked by unevenness

between urban and rural areas. The high rural-urban migration that characterizes the

Rwandan population distribution is usually an effect of disparities in income and

economic opportunities. The table 2.7 below indicates a remarkable net increase in the



urban population of over 300% for the period 1991-2002. The major urban

growth was recorded in the other urban areas other than Kigali City.

Table 6: Evolution of urban population in Rwanda for the period 1978-2002

Census

Year

Total

Population

Urban

Population (%)

1978 4,831,527 4.6

1991 7,157,551 5.5

2002 8,162,715 16.7

Source: The Rwanda General Census of Population and Housing, 2002

Rural-urban population distribution

In 2003, when the Vision 2020 document was published, the urban

population was estimated at 10%, recent statistics from the National Institute

of Statistics put it at almost 17% in 2007. It is not certain whether the urban

growth is related to economic development strategies or urban rural

migrations. Both have a specific effect on the environment; urban growth for

economic development provides additional amenities on top of what already

exists and this reduces physical pressure on the environment and; rural

urban migration may pose a situation where minimal amenities are being

shared by a larger population. Rwanda urban growth may present both

reasons. For instance, along main transport corridors that were recently

(between 2003 and 2008) constructed in tarmac, trading centres have

mushroomed, and where they were existing have been improved. Table 2.8

is taken from the EICV poverty analysis for the Economic Development

Strategy (2007) that shows the population structure in the rural and urban

areas.

Table 7: Change in Urban and Rural Population Structure in 2000(EICV1) and 2005 (EICV2)

EICV1 EICV2

Stratum Estimated

population

Share

(%)

Estimated

population

Share

(%)

City of Kigali 663,000 8.3 703,000 7.4

Other urban 618,000 7.8 865,000 9.1

Rural 6,683,000 83.9 7,893,000 83.4

Total 7,963,000 100 9,460,000 100

The table 2.8 above shows that the population living in urban areas generally increased

from 16.1% to 16.5%. These figures however, show that population did increase in

numbers by almost 300,000 inhabitants in the urban area. Comparing the age

distribution between the two sets of population structure, it is observed that there are

more infants in the rural area than in the urban area. This explains that rural-urban

migration is actually on the increase whereas fertility rate is higher in the rural areas.

The major reasons for rural urban migration are in search for convenient access to

services, infrastructure, amenities and employment. Generally, the Rwandan population

is rural by 83% with 53% women6. Among the population living in the urban area, the

statistics are reversed with more men than women; this means that there are more men

urban migrating than women. This is especially true for young men between (16 and 30

years) who migrate for jobs, education, and the City experience.

In order to control rural urban migration, the Government has resorted to adopting

strategies that bring services, infrastructure and amenities to the people. Not only is this

enshrined in the Rwanda constitution, but has also been translated into policy

documents of Decentralisation policy, Vision 2020, EDPRS and Vision 2020-Umurenge.

6 This information is provided in the Rwanda Development indicators, April 2007



Migration 2010-2020

One of the factors the will affect migration is the emerging policy aiming at

converting the Rwandan predominately agricultural economy to a market

economy. Consequently, with less direct intervention from the government in

economy, the possibilities to counteract a less desired migration will

decrease. Market economy generally relies on knowledge and contacts.

Consequently, due to reasons of competitiveness, this creates a need to

locate business in big cities. This could result in new job opportunities mostly

created in Kigali City.

It is reasonable to assume that economic factors and the labour market

situation will play a central role in determining future migration. The

scenarios for GDP and productivity are sector-specific, where the resulting

labour demand, i.e. employment, is calculated with respect to the economic

sectors respectively.

In the High Growth Scenario the total employment in the Rwanda is

assumed to increase by slightly more than 100 % in the period 2010-2020.

In the Low Migration Scenario the total employment is assumed to increase

by about 65 % in the same period.

The Kigali City is assumed to have a larger increase in employment than

other Provinces in both scenarios.

I L L E G A L I M M I G R A T I O N

In addition to the legal immigration there is illegal immigration in Rwanda,

but the magnitude is uncertain. However, the general view indicates a

limited illegal immigration.

Population Scenarios 2020

The Plan is based on two scenarios for the future population development,

High Growth Scenario and Low Growth Scenario.

The population scenarios have taken the Census 2002 as the starting point. The

demographic projection is resting on the described assumptions on fertility, mortality and

migration.

According to the scenarios, the population in the Rwanda will increase from about 8

million inhabitants in 2002 to between 13 and 14 million inhabitants by the year 2020.

The future population in the Rwanda according to the two scenarios is presented in

Figure 2.3 and Table 2.9 below.

Table 8: Scenarios, population in Rwanda, 2008-2020

Year Low Growth Scenario High Growth Scenario

Total

population

Total

population

2008 9,822,000 9,834,000

2010 10,356,000 10,429,000

2012 10,887,000 11,074,000

2014 11,405,000 11,765,000

2016 11,912,000 12,496,000



2018 12,436,000 13,266,000

2020 12,974,000 14,073,000

Source: Projected population growth 2008-2020 in the Rwanda according to the

two scenarios, millions of inhabitants.

Figure 4: Population Projections in Rwanda, 2008-2020

POPULATION PROJECTION

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Mil

lio

ns

Year

High Growth

Low Growth

The annual population growth between the years 2008 and 2020 will decrease

moderately according to both scenarios.

Growth Rates

The annual population growth 1978-1991 was 3.1% in Rwanda. Up until 1991, the

annual population growth increased. The trend then became a decline, reaching an

estimated 1.2% between 1991 and 2002 due to the rise in crimes against humanity in the

early 1990s. The table 2.10 below shows growth rates for Rwanda and for the Rwanda

2010-2020 according to population scenarios.

Table 9: Population net annual growth rates, Rwanda 1978-2002, Census Results 1978, 1991 and 2002; period 2002-2010, and low growth scenario for Rwanda 2010-2020



Period

1978-1991

1991-2002

2002-2010

2010-

2020 P

op

ula

tio

n

chan

ge

Census Census Projection

Overall change (%) 48.1 14 21.6 19.7

Mean annual growth rate (%) 3.1 1.2 3.2 2.5

Source: Vision 2020; The Rwanda General Census of Population and Housing,

2002; Population projections, 2009

Population Distribution

Figure 5: Population distribution 2008

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE GROUP

AND GENDER 2008

1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 +

AG

E G

RO

UP

POPULATION

NO. OF MALES

NO. OF FEMALES



POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE GROUP

AND GENDER 2020

1200000 700000 200000 300000 800000

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 +

AG

E G

RO

UP

POPULATION

NO. OF MALES HIGH

NO. OF MALES LOW

NO. OF FEMALES HIGH

NO. OF FEMALES LOW

POPULATION PROJECTED PER DISTRICT 2002-2020 The growth of the population per district is illustrated by a series of maps showing the

increased population density. Population density is a key indicator for economic growth,

service and utility provision and risks for environmental degradation. Please observe that

areas of lakes and protected areas have been subtracted from the total district area to

better representation:



The projections, made by NISR shows, a clear trend that Kigali City will be pressured by

a high population. However, the western half of the country, and Rubavu District in

particular, will have a higher population density than the western side.



Age Structure

For both scenarios a very large increase in the age groups 30-60 can be

expected. The demographic change is shown in the following figure by

population pyramids for 2010 and 2020.

In the Low Growth Scenario there is a more or less stable number of

children 0-14, and together with low migration it is in fact a decrease. The

age groups 15-29 which are the largest per one-year class 2010, are

decreasing in the Low Growth Scenario due to low migration, and remain

stable in the High Growth Scenario. The age structure 2010-2020 is shown

in figures in the following table.

Table 10:Population in major age groups in Rwanda, 2002,2010,2020, thousands of inhabitants

Age Group 2002 2010

2020

Low

Growth

High

Growth

0-5 (Pre-school) 1456000 1818000 1797000 2449000

5-15 (School-going) 2212000 2589000 3307000 3753000

15-64 (Work-force) 4257000 5757000 7516000 7516000

65- (Retired) 238000 249000 354000 355000

Total 8163000 10413000 12974000 14073000

Source: Census 2002 and scenario estimations for 2010-2020.

Households

The household is a decisive unit in planning and in economics. It is also the base unit in

many theories. It is of great importance to know the number of households in the

population when estimating the future demand for housing.

As can be seen in table 2.12, most households consist of between 2-6 members. Less

than 15% of the households contain 7 or more members and just above 8% consist of

households with only 1 member.

A household is defined as a person or group of persons who occupy the same

dwelling. The household may consist of a family, two or more families sharing

a dwelling, a group of unrelated persons or a person living alone. A family

consists of a group of people living in the same household and related to each

other by birth, marriage or adoption. In Rwanda, both households and families

are used as statistical units.



Table 11: Distribution of urban and rural households by size of household in Rwanda, 2002.

Size of

Household

Number of Households('000)

Urban Rural Total

1 27.4 99.9 127.3

2 36.6 180.8 217.4

3 42.5 260.7 303.2

4 41.9 262.2 304.1

5 36.9 227.6 264.5

6 29.2 174.8 204.1

7 21.7 123.0 144.2

8 15.1 78.8 93.9

9 9.4 43.3 52.7

10+ 12.2 33.3 45.5

273.0 1484.4 1757.4

Source: Census of population and housing 2002

Household Scenarios 2020

In order to estimate the formation of households, current household sizes of 4.3 have

been used to calculate number of households for 2010-2020. For other years,

information on household sizes has not been traced and will be left out. By applying this

household-quotient to the population scenarios, the compound growth rate has been

calculated for the households in Rwanda using the two scenarios as shown in Table

2.14.

Table 12: Number of households, average household size and annual growth rate in different scenarios in Rwanda 1978-2020

1978 1991 2002 2010 2020

Low

growth

scenario

High

growth

scenario

Population '000 4,832 7,158 8,163 10,413 12,974 14,073

No of households

'000 _ _ 1757.4 2421.6 3017.2 3272.8

Average

household size _ _ _ 4.3 4.3 4.3

Annual growth rate

(%) _ 3.1 1.4 3.0 2.5 3.2

Guidelines

The planning process needs reliable population growth estimations including age structure, distribution and household size. Two population growth scenarios are presented in this chapter.



Guidelines - Population

Land-use applications (Needs assessment, Risk & Suitability Analysis and investment planning) in the Rwanda should be based on a future population increase according to two scenarios – a High Growth Scenario and a Low Growth Scenario. The future population growth will most likely reach at least the level of the Low Growth Scenario but not exceed the level of the High Growth Scenario.

Dependency levels potentially threaten; Referring to the data presented in the age structure section above, the population structure is so wide at the base that it engenders high dependency levels. These potentially threaten to significantly reduce the impact of even the highest levels of economic growth on the population‟s quality of life. The effects of the 1994 genocide on the population structure, reflected by phenomena such as the high percentage of female-headed households, increases the number of vulnerable categories of people whose plight needs targeted interventions.

Need for curbing population growth; The problem of high population growth is further compounded by the majority of the population deriving its livelihood from direct use of land, a commodity that is increasingly becoming scarce. It is thus imperative that as much effort is put on curbing population growth as it is on avenues of accelerating economic growth. As reflected in EDPRS, there is increasing realisation that other sources of livelihood have to be explored because long-term dependence on land is no longer a realistic option for most Rwandans. It is thus critical that the change of focus from land-based livelihood strategies to other alternatives such as building a knowledge-based economy be intensified.

Young population as future potential for economic development (workforce engine); Considering that over 60% of the Rwanda population is under 24 years and the country is targeting to transform its predominantly agricultural economy to a service led market economy, specific strategies to realise the same can take advantage of an increasing youthful population (welcomes change) as opposed to the thinning population towards 60 and above.

Figure 6: Scenario, Population Projections

POPULATION PROJECTION

High Growth

Low Growth

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Millio

ns

Year



LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1: POPULATION INCREASE IN RWANDA ------------------------------------ 4 FIGURE 2: FERTILITY RATE ------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 FIGURE 3: FAMILY PLANNING WILL HAVE TO BE ACCEPTED ----------------- 8 FIGURE 4: POPULATION PROJECTIONS IN RWANDA, -------------------------- 12 FIGURE 5: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 2008 --------------------------------------- 13 FIGURE 6:SCENARIO, POPULATION PROJECTIONS ------------------------------ 18

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1: POPULATION SCENARIOS ------------------------------------------------------ 5 TABLE 2:POPULATION IN AGE GROUPS, RWANDA -------------------------------- 6 TABLE 3: TOTAL FERTILITY RATE(CHILDREN PER WOMAN) -------------------- 5 TABLE 4: TOTAL MORTALITY RATE IN RWANDA ------------------------------------- 9 TABLE 5: MORTALITY RATE FOR FEMALES ------------------------------------------- 9 TABLE 6: EVOLUTION OF URBAN POPULATION IN RWANDA ---------------- 10 TABLE 7:CHANGE IN URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION STRUCTURE ---- 10 TABLE 8: SCENARIOS, POPULATION IN RWANDA, 2008-2020 ----------------- 11 TABLE 9: POPULATION NET ANNUAL GROWTH RATES, ----------------------- 12 TABLE 10:POPULATION IN MAJOR AGE GROUPS IN RWANDA --------------- 16 TABLE 11: DISTRIBUTION OF URBAN AND RURAL HOUSEHOLDS -------- 17 TABLE 12: NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE --- 17

02 demography steering committee draft

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