012_20160726_sustainable energy production and utilization
TRANSCRIPT
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Sustainable Energy Production and UtilizationIntroduction, Food for Thought & Effect of Energy Conversion on the Environment
Reinhard RadermacherCEEE, University of Maryland
Fall 2016
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Overview1. Speed of Technological Development2. Thoughts on Implications3. Consequences for Fossil Fuels4. System Thinking
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
1902, Life in the US Just a Century Ago• The US average life expectancy was 47• Only 14 Percent of homes in the US had a bathtub• Only 8% of the homes had a telephone. $11 for 3 min call Denver to NYC• Max speed limit in most cities was 10 mph• AL, MS, IA, and TN each had more people than CA with only 1.4 mil• Marijuana, heroin, and morphine all available over the counter at drugstores • Coca Cola contained cocaine
• World’s tallest structure: Eiffel Tower• Average wage in the US 0.22$/hr• Average US worker earned $200 to $400 per year• Accountant - $2000 /yr, Dentist -$2,500 /yr, Mechanical Engr -$5,000/yr• 6% of Americans HS grads• Only about 230 reported murders in the entire US• 5 top causes of death in US:
Pneumonia and influenza, Tuberculosis, Diarrhea, Heart disease, Stroke
Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 20063
Fax MachineWalkmaniPodDesktop PC….. Have all come and gone in my lifetime!
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
The World is Changing
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Diamandis, Peter H.; Kotler, Steven (2012-02-21). Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think (Kindle Locations 4226-4228). Free Press. Kindle Edition
Smartphone displaces $900K worth of equipment
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Why is Technological Growth Exponential?• All evolutionary change is exponential because the change builds on itself
– Population change is exponential – the more people born, the more exist to produce ever more offspring• Technology represents tools to create further tools that can produce ever more complex and capable technology
– Integrated circuits in computers are used to design the next generation of integrated circuits– Information technology provides faster and greater access to knowledge which is used to rapidly design and produce other technologies
Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 20065
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Why Do We Perceive Change as Linear?• It is only recently that change during an individuals lifetime has become visible (Future Shock, 1971)• Doubling periods can be longer than a human life span
– Biological complexity doubles on the order of thousands or even millions of years– Prior to the Industrial Revolution, change was almost nonexistent over a human life span
• Technological progress during the last Century doubled about every decade (Kurzweil)– People tend to naturally average the change over a reasonable period and, therefore, see it as linear but not increasing
• Information technology doubles every 18 months or so.– The 1990’s seemed a decade of great change!
Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 20066
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Exponential Growth in a Finite Environment• Imagine bacteria growing steadily in a bottle• They double every minute• At 11:00 there is one bacterium in the bottle• At 12:00 noon the bottle is full
Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 2006
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Question 1At what time is the bottle half full?
Answer: 11:59
Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 2006
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Question 2If you were an average bacterium in the bottle, at what time would you first realize that you were running out of space?
Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 2006
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Time Full Empty 11:54 1/64 or 1.6% 63/6411:55 2/64 or 3.1% 62/6411:56 4/64 or 6.3% 60/6411:57 8/64 or 12.5% 56/6411:58 16/64 or 25% 48/6411:59 32/64 or 50% 32/6412:00 64/64 or 100% 0
Questions
Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 2006
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Suppose…Suppose that at 11:58 some of the bacteria realized they are running out of space. So they launch a great search for new bottles. They search off-shore, on the outer continental shelf, in the “Overthrust Belt” and in the Arctic and they found THREE new bottles.Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 2006
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Question 3
• Two minutes!
How long can the growth continue as a result of the discovery of three new bottles; this quadrupling of proven resources?
Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 2006
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Internet as Example
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• First two computers connected in 1969• The number of hosts has doubled approximately every 13 months since 1969
– 1970 - 4 1974 -20– 1980 –735 1984 -8,000– 1988 –90,000 1992 -1 mil– 1994 –3.3 mil 1996 -11 mil– 1998 –36 mil 2000 -120 mil
• Exponential Change closely models the actual growth in the internetDarrel Massie, UMD Presentation 2006
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Linear Scale Plot of Internet Growth
1994-98 Explosion
69 94 99
Number
of Hos
ts
Year10 mil
50 mil
100 mil
Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 200614
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Remember:• Humans think in terms of linear change.• Humans can handle only a few variables at a time.• The World is much more complex than that!
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Analysis1. Modest rates of steady growth of numbers of things quickly give enormous numbers.2. Steady growth is displayed in compound interest of money in a savings account.3. The rate of growth of technology, population and inflation will fluctuate but still lead to enormous numbers in a moderate period of time. 4. Steady growth of the rate of consumption of a non-renewable resource leads very quickly to the early depletion of that resource. (unless price intervenes)5. Most people have little or no idea about the effects of steady growth.
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Implications• What does all this mean for Sustainable Energy?• Technological Evolution cannot be stopped and will only accelerate –Changing this is not an option• The Complexity of Technology, Knowledge, and Society is also increasing and must be managed• All Problems and solutions, including technical solutions, are Multi-Disciplinary (social, political, economic & technical)• The ‘Process for Change’ is as important as the product• Individual and Organizational Learning to produce the right change is the key to the Future!• Einstein: A problem cannot be solved using the same mode of thinking that produced it.• Einstein: Doing the same thing twice and expecting a different outcome is insanity.
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
CURRENT ENERGY SUPPLY & UTILIZATION18
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US Energy Flow Diagram
Petroleum
Coal
Nat. Gas
Bio Mass
Nuclear WasteHydro
Solar
WindGeothermal
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
China and India
20 Int. Joint Graduate Course on Sustainable Energy, Radermacher, Hamburg 2014
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
U.S. Energy Use in Relation to GDP 1970-2012
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Role of Efficiency in Addressing Climate Change in the U.S.
Note: This graph is stylized and is not exact.
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
History of Building Code Revisions in the United States
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
IS THERE AN OIL-PEAK?
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Three Types of Growth
We are hereWhen will we be here?Are we here?
Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 200625
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Countries that Peaked in Oil Production…Japan: 1932Germany: 1966Libya: 1970Venezuela: 1970USA: 1970Iran: 1974Nigeria: 1979Trinidad & Tobago: 1981Egypt: 1987France: 1988Indonesia: 1991Syria: 1996
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India: 1997New Zealand: 1997 UK: 1999Argentina: 1999Colombia: 1999Australia: 2000 Norway: 2000Oman: 2000Mexico: 2004Russia: 1987, 2007Kuwait: 2013Saudi Arabia: 2014Iraq: 2018
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
World Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resources
Source: Kuuskraa et al., WORLD SHALE GAS AND SHALE OIL RESOURCE ASSESSMENT, prepared for US. EIA, May 2013
Note:7000 trillion cft is equivalent to ~1200 billion of barrels of oil
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
US Tar Sand Resources• U.S. tar sands resources are estimated at 60 to 80 billion barrels of oil; some 11 billion barrels may be recoverable• The richest deposits are found in Utah and California.
DOE Office of Petroleum Reserves –Strategic Unconventional Fuels Fact Sheet: U. S. Tar Sands Potential
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
World Oil Production
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Shale O
il World
wide
Shale G
as World
wide
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Why?• Oil major “easy” oil fields are declining 6-7%/year• New “easy” finds, announced with great fanfare, amount to little.• Consumption in oil-producing countries is increasing rapidly.
– Population increases rapidly– Energy is highly subsidized– Helps keep dictators in power
• China & India are coming online.30
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
How cheap is energy?
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Norwegian SalmonCaught & frozen
Shipped (4 weeks)Thawed, processed, frozen
Shipped (4 weeks) Sold as FRESH !
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Before…
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Massey Valley Fill Lyburn, WVPhoto courtesy Vivian Stockman / www.ohvec.org.Flyover courtesy SouthWings.org
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
…after Mountaintop Removal
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Massey Valley Fill Lyburn, WVPhoto courtesy Vivian Stockman / www.ohvec.org.Flyover courtesy SouthWings.org
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Environmental Impact
34Photo courtesy Vivian Stockman / www.ohvec.org.Flyover courtesy SouthWings.org
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Environmental Impact
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Mountaintop Removal in Martin County, Kentucky Photo courtesy Vivian Stockman / www.ohvec.org.Flyover courtesy SouthWings.org
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Environmental Impact
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Massey Valley Fill Lyburn, WV Photo courtesy Vivian Stockman / www.ohvec.org.Flyover courtesy SouthWings.org
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Tar Sands and Oil Shale
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Before and After: Forest in northern Alberta staked out by tar sands prospectors and the Suncor Millennium tar sands site, Alberta in the March 2009 issue of National Geographic
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Tar Sands and Oil Shale
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Boreal forest turned into open-pit mines for oil extraction in Alberta's tar sands – part of a process known as “Fracking”
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Deepwater/Gulf Oil Spill
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Oil slick near Louisiana wetlands
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Fracking• Injection of high pressure fluids into rock setting free large quantities of natural gas/oil• Currently US is on way to become net oil/gas exporter• But:
– Fluids used to drill for natural gas likely pollute ground water– New Jersey has one year moratorium
• Some States are pushing to ban technology
40http://kahfan.blogspot.com/p/what-would-fracking-mean-for-karoo.html
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Cost of Oil Dependence
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ORNL/TM-2005/45Costs of U.S. Oil Dependence:2005 Update, January 2005David L. Greene, Corporate FellowSanjana Ahmad, Research Associate
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Fossil Energy Utilization Challenges1. Supply Limitations2. Environmental Impact3. Political Reason “Petro Dictatorship”4. Economic Reason: Spend funds locally
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Motivation for Sustainable Energy Utilization
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1. Limited Fossil Resources2. Environmental Impact3. Political/Economic Losses
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Food for Thought
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System Thinking
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Nature vs. Industrial Age
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Kodak engineers do sustainable development workshop, living outdoors for several days.Walk home past a landfill.Find old copiers.Lesson learned: Copier is used a few years in an office, …..but lives ~ 100 years in a landfill.
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Nature vs. Industrial Age
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Industrial Age vs. Nature
EnergyFossil
(few billion years of stored solar energy) SolarFood SuppliesGlobal Local
Materials ProcessingHuge Waste No wasteVarietyStandardization Diversity
Social Well BeingMaximize Income Build Relationships
Peter Senge, The Necessary Revolution, 2008
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Fisheries Game Example• Several fishing companies fish the same Ocean• If one outdoes the others in fish catches, they all over fish and the will be bankrupted.• What needs to be done for them to survive and thrive?
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
HOWEVER: THE STONE-AGE DID NOT END BECAUSE OF A LACK OF STONES!49
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
What Should the Future Hold?CEEE Research Roadmap: Macro View
Mid-Term Energy SupplyElectric Power from highly efficient, fossil fuel power plants:Transcritical Steam CycleCombined Cycle
Heating and Cooling1. District Heating and Cooling2. Low temperature lift vapor compression HPsRefrigeration, HPs for Severe ConditionsVapor compression HPsLong-Term Energy SupplyElectric Power from Renewable Energy
Short/Long Term Heat SupplyFossil and Bio Fuels
Heating and CoolingLow temperature lift (waste) heat activated HPsRefrigeration, HPs for Severe Conditions(Waste) heat activated HPsDistrib. CHP
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
THE POTENTIAL
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Energy Productivity DifferencesHow well do we spend our $1.2 Trillion?
*IEA and World Bank – 2007 sources
Key to Competitiveness
Region Population GDP Energy Energy/Capita
Energy/GDP
USA 4.6% 18.9% 19.5% 100 100EU 7.5% 25.1% 14.8% 47 57
Japan 1.9% 8.8% 4.3% 52 47China 20.0% 4.5% 16.3% 19 355India 17.0% 1.5% 4.9% 7 317World 100% 100% 100% 23 97
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Climate Indicators• CO2 per capita per year (metric tons)
– Canada 22.6– USA 21.7– Denmark 14.1– Germany 11.7– European Union 10.5
• Municipal CO2 per capita per year– Washington DC 19.7– Loudoun County, Virginia 14.2 with 6.0 goal– Canada – Guelph 12.2 with 5.0 goal– Germany - Mannheim 5.0– Denmark - Copenhagen 2.6
*Rough indicators - multiple sources
Target for US Cities?53
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Energy Use by SectorHow does the USA Compare?Sector Share Index USA/EU*
Buildings 40% 1.8 ~ 2.5 : 1Transportation 29% 1.4 : 1Industry 32% 1.2 : 1
• Most energy lost in range of inefficiencies• Only 5% to 15% used productively
High potential for productivity gains!
*Indicative ratio of US average to EU Average54
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Existing Low Energy, Net Zero Energy, Plus Energy Houses
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With contributions from: Kris Van de Velde
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Bullit Center Seattle
Bullit Foundation HQ www.bullitcenter.org56
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 201558
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
FIRST CERTIFIED PASSIVE HOUSE IN USA59
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
FIRST CERTIFIED PASSIVE HOUSE IN DENMARK60
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Net Zero Homes
61 Net Zero home - Ft. Worth, Texas
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Net Zero Homes
62 Net Zero “Beach House” - California
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Net Zero Homes
63 Net Zero - Chicago
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Net Zero Homes
64 Net Zero – Staplehurst, England
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Net Zero Homes
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“Cannon Beach Residence” Oregon coast
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Net Zero Homes• LEED Platinum• Currently holds highest rating for a Net Zero residence in the US• Produces 40% more energy than it consumes
66Yannell Residence, Illinois
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015Belgian NZE station at Antartica67
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Key Concepts• Envelope (minimize load)• Thermal Mass (heat storage)• Ventilation (no infiltration)
– Must be done correctly– Generous air flow– Heat recovery ventilation– No leaks
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
LEED Certification• Statistics as of 15 April 2010:
– 4703 certifications in US– 19,312 registrations worldwide
Certification Level # per Certification Level
Certified 1417Bronze 3Silver 1747Gold 1931
Platinum 287
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Data source: USGBC
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
LEED Home, Platinum Certified
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
LEED Statistics – Top Ten Registered or Certified• Commercial: 12,290• Retail: 4,398• Higher Ed: 3,000+/-• Multi-unit residential: 2,775• Campus: 2,406• Military Base: 2,115• Restaurant: 2,069• Industrial: 1,660• Community Development: 1,607• K-12 Education: 1,600
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
LEED Statistics – Registered or Certified Projects: Top Ten Countries• Arab Emirate: 656 • China: 261• Canada: 228• Brazil: 134• Mexico: 111
• Germany: 99• South Korea: 93• India: 76• Saudi Arabia: 65• Italy: 64
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Building America• Ultimate Target is on-site MicroCHP supplying 100% demands (Zero Energy).
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Analyzing the Least-Cost Path
Reduced consumption by increasing building efficiency Additional options until cost of saving energy equals cost of onsite power produced or that of additional savings options
No changes in design, savings result from additional onsite power capacity
PV systems used for on-site power generation
BEopt™ Software for Building Energy Optimization: Features and Capabilities, C. Christensen and R. Anderson, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, S. Horowitz, A. Courtney, and J. Spencer, University of Colorado, Boulder, Technical Report, NREL/TP-550-39929, August 200674
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Markets low energy houses – Markets KfW40 and KfW60 houses Germany
Primary energy (SH, DHW) < 40 (60) kWh/(m2a)45% (30%) lower transmission losses than legal requirement
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• New Law : January 2009, all new homes renewable energy heating systems, 14 % of demand• 350 million euros [US $517 million] annually for solar panels, wood pellet stoves and boilers and heat pumps.• "The heating sector is the sleeping giant of renewable energy," Thomas Hagbeck of the German Federal Environmental Agency• Renewable energy for electricity up 300% in the last ten years• Renewable energy for heating up only 40% over the same period.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=50746
Germany
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Definitions
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Europe: Low Energy House: Heating Demand <40kWh/m2/yrAir tight
USNet Zero Energy House: Uses only renewable energy on annual average
For Purpose of Workshop:Passive House
USLEEDS Certified House: Fulfills wide range of environmental requirem.
Europe: Passive House: Heating Demand <15kWh/m2/yrAir tight
ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Technology Trend: Highest Possible Energy EfficiencyHierarchy of Energy Supply Technologies• Near Term: Fossil fuel based power plant
– Highest possible efficiency central power plant– Waste heat for heating and cooling– Electric, low temperature lift heat pumps
• Long Term: renewable energy – Most renewable energy is available as electricity– Electric, low temperature lift heat pumps
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ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015
Friendsville Questions• Laws Public Service Commission• Government Subsidies• Community detaisl
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