9

*

Richard J. Anderson

- , -

, - .

- 2008. Occasional Paper Series No 19, - . .

: , , -, .

(European Union 27) 38% ,1 a -

. - , -

* , . , -. Europe's Dependence on Russian Natural Gas: Perspectives and Recommendations for a Long-term Strategy The Marshall Center Occasional Paper Series, No. 19 (September 2008), .

1 , . EIA , , 1.000 . 156,1 (EU 27) 2005. , , , BP- 2005. () (liquefied natural gas LNG). - 413,46 , 356,86 -, 47,6 .

:

339

.972

:620

.9

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27

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)"20"

, /2010

10

, - . - 50 60% -, .2 . - - ( , . .).

, , - . - , , , - . - , , - . - - . - - . - . , - - , .

, . 17% - .3

2 ( , . ) Green Paper: A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy Brussels, 2006; . 3; Energy Information Administration,International Energy Outlook 2006 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/nat_gas.html.

3 2003. 73,7 (1015) BTU ( - ) (British Thermal Unit, BTU) 17% . 2005. 17% .

11

: 43%, 24%, 14%, 13%, 4% 2% ( , , - ).4

1 ( )

, - - . , - - , . -, , , .5 , , ; 22% .6 -

, 2003. 24%. Energy Informa-tion Administration, Country Analysis Briefs: European Union,http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Euro-pean_Union /Full.html Quantifying Energy: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, p. 27, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/stati-stical_energy_review_2006/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/natural_gas_section_2006.pdf.

4 . 5 BTU The Uses of Natural Gas NaturalGas.org, http://na-

turalgas.org/overview/uses.asp. 6 . , -

.

, /2010

12

. - , , - , . , , . . , , .7 , , , , , - 2030. , .8

, (3,7% 2005. ). , , ( 31% 2005. ).9 ;

7 . 70 -, 89 , 87 -. .

8 World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 19902030, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/ieoreftab_2.pdf Commission of the European Communities, Green Paper: A European Strategy for Sustainable, Com-petitive and Secure Energy Brussels, 2006.

9 , . 2005. 56,59 West Texas Intermediate, 54,52 Brent, 3,7 , -. , - . - 8,79 $ BTU, 6,28 $, 6,05 $ - ( , .) . 31%. British Pe-troleum Statistical Review, Spot Crude Prices: From 1972 and Natural Gas Prices from 1984 http://www.inve-stis.com/bp_acc_ia/stat_review_05/htdocs/reports/report_20.html http://www.investis.com/bp_acc_ia/stat_revi-ew_05/htdocs/reports/report_21.html.

13

, , - .

-260 F [-162 C], 600 , , (). , - .10 - , - . , - . ( ) - .11 - , - , - .

, ,12 25 . - , - , , . - .13 , . - , . ,

10 , . (EIA) LNG Importers http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/global/importers.htm

11 , . , , . . Nick Blenkey, LNG boom continues MarineLog.com, http://www.marinelog.com/DOCS/PRINTMMV/MMV Feblng1.html.

12 , . , .

13 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Natural Gas Prices http://r0.unctad.org/infocomm/ anglais/gas/prices.htm.

, /2010

14

- , . , , . , - .14

- , . . 2005. 22% .15 47,55 - .16 27,5 . -, , 15,9 14,9 . - . , (25%).17 , .

() 50

. 2030 70 .18 - . ,

14 1995. , . 1,69 $ BTU, 3,46 $ . , 100% 31%, .

15 Quantifying Energy: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, . 24, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_in-ternet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2006/STAGING/lo-cal_assets/downloads/pdf/natural_gas_section_2006.pdf.

16 , International Energy Outlook 2006, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/nat_ gas.html.

17 , Saudi Arabia ( ), http://www.eia.doe.gov-/emeu/cabs/saudi.html.

18 , Green Paper: A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy Brussels, 2006, . 3.

15

.19 - ( ), , , - . -, 1,4% 1% , , ,20 .21

, -. , , , , 47 .22 , -, . , ( 15) 20082012. 8% 1990. .23 , , , - , , .

, , , - , : , , , , . -

19 : 2005. 7,2 , 17,1 . / 12,9 . , , , . , .

20 , International Energy Outlook 2006, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/nat_ gas.html.

21 Falcon Oil Gas Limited 509 1,28 m3 . , 0,7% 100 , . , . - , - . Falcon Oil Gas Limited - , . Michael Logan, Europe Swiped in Friendship Fight The Budapest Times, January 15, 2007, http://www.budapesttimes.hu/in-dex.php.

22 , Coal Reserves, http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/internatio-nal/iea2004/table82.xls.

23 , Country Analysis Briefs: European Union, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ cabs/European_Union/Full.html.

, /2010

16

2023. 24 - , , - . , 197374. , . 56 - 430 , 13,5 2006. , CO2 128 .25 - -. 2003. - 85% , . 433,3 (kWh), 510,4 kWh. - , 8,2% . - 29,9% 61,8% - . 40 , 85 .26 , 1% () .27 - .

, , - - . kWh 3,2 , - , , 3,7

24 Germany Committed to Phasing Out Nuclear Power ( ), Deutsche Welle, May 1, 2006, http://www.dwworld. de/dw/article/0,2144,1845437,00.html.

25 16 2006. . Platts, January 12, 2007, http://www.platts.com/ Nuclear/News/8826117.xml?src=Nuclearrss-headlines1.

26 CIA World Factbook, France and Germany ( ). https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/gm.html https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/fr.html. 27 , 85 -

2122 , . 1% .

17

.28 , - , 8 - , - , -.29 , - , - .

, . 37,7% 27, .30 , , , 99% . - .31

25 80% , 60% ,32 . , .33

28 Miklos Losoncz, Analysis: Energy Dependence and Supply in Central and Eastern Europe EurActiv.com, http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/analysisenergydependencesupplycentraleasterneuro-pe/article155274.

29 4,1 , - . Erik Morthorst, Wind Energy: The Facts Volume 2 Cost and Prices . 13, http://www.ewea.org/fileadmin/ewea_d-ocuments/documents/publications/WETF/Facts_Volume_2.pdf.

30 1. 31 Miklos Losoncz, Analysis: Energy Dependence and Supply in Central and Eastern Europe EurActiv.com, http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/analysisenergydependencesupplycentraleasterneurope/ article155274. 32 , Green Paper: A European Strategy for Sustainable, Com-

petitive and Secure Energy (Brussels, 2006), . 3, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2006.

33 30% . - . Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2006 Country Analysis Briefs: Russia, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Russia/Full.html.

, /2010

18

1 34

( m3/god)

%

1,3 100 1,4 100 2,8 100 2,8 100 19,8 99 2,8 99 6,4 99 4,6 98 2,2 82 7,2 77 6,0 69 14,3 65 9,0 64 0,56 52 6,0 43 36,5 42 24 35 24,2 31 11,5 28 3,9 22 2,7 6

, , -

2030. , - . - 2006. 2006. , - - .

34 35% -; , . , , , -, , 1% . ( ) , . 2004/2005 , , . . , : Bernard A. Gelb CRS Report for Congress, Russian Natural Gas: Regional Dependence (CRS, Congressional Research Services), http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS22562.pdf.

19

- , - . - , . , , . , - , . , - ; . - ; . , .

() , - . . - , , - .

1. 2006, - - .

, 50% , 17% - 60% , 2011, .35

, 2004. , - , 47,5 m3. 2011. - 103 120 -

35 , Altai Project, http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article22202.shtml.

, /2010

20

m3 .36 4,5 5 2.800 , -. 68 m3 .37 2005. - 156,1 m3 76,6 m3 , - .38

, - (Unified Gas Transportation System UGS) - 155.000 - .39 - . , , , 30% - . , , - , , .

, , , . . - - . , 2006. , ; - , .

, - , . , , - - 40 , -

36 . 37 . 38

, . 232,7 m3, 25% , . Gazprom Corporate Website, , http://www.gazprom.com/eng/artic-les/article20160.shtml , : , Internatio-nal Affairs, Vol. 52 No. 5, 2006, p. 147.

39 , 2005. . http://www.gazprom.com/do-cuments/Annual_Report_Eng_2005.pdf, p. 5455.

40 , TNK-BP. (- .).

21

. , ; , .

, 11% - . , . .

, - 4,5% 6%.41 .42

, 281 , 9,5% , . , - 8,5% 2030. .43 - , . -, - , .

(-) - . . - .

41 60 74 . BP Statistical Review Oil and Gas Journal , , , http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.xls.

42 , International Energy Outlook 2006: World Oil Markets, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/oil.pdf.

43 . 2030. , - .

, /2010

22

, . , -, .44

a . . 2006. , 235 1.000 m3 2007. .45 , -, , - .

, , , - , - . , - . , , , , e, , - . 20% : , , - .

, - , 270 m3 2030. ,46 230 250 1.000 m3, 65 -

44 Aleksander Medvedev, Gazexport: Achievements and Prospects, International Affairs, Vol. 52 No. 5, 2006, p. 149.

45 Andrew E. Kramer, Gazprom of Russia to Double Natural Gas Prices to Georgia, International Herald Tribune, 22. 2006, http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/12/22/business/gazprom.php. 46 2006, 156 -

m3, - 2030, , , - .

23

. -, - , , .

2006. -

- . -, , , , , - , .47 : - . , .48 , - , , 2006. .

: , . , , .49

-, . Energy Business Review The Fi-nancial Times .50 . - -

47 NATO Fears Russian Plans for Gas OPEC, Financial Times, 13. 2006, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/af125540735811db9bac0000779e2340.html.

48 . 49 Kremlin Insider Defends Russias Energy Giant Newsweek International, 29. 2007,

http://www.msn bc.msn.com/id/16735523/site/newsweek/. 50 Carola Hoyos, The Hurdles for Moscow on Path to Gas Cartel Financial Times, 13. ,

2006, http:// www.ft.com/cms/s/054d0d62737011db9bac0000779e2340.html Emergence of a Gas OPEC Remains Unlikely Despite NATO Warning ( -), Energy Business Review, 16. 2006,

www.energybusinessreview.com/article_feature.asp?guid=983705D4E255449EA5F0FB23844F6A20.

, /2010

24

, , , - . , - 10 25 , , . - OPEC-, . , , - , , - .

, . - , - . , - , , . , - , . , , 30% 2 3 , - 2009. .51 , , -. 2007. , -. - ( , 4344% - ), - OPEC.52

2006. , , , 16% . - , , 7,5 .53 , - ,

51 ; , 8 m3 . Gazprom Corporate Website, Business Strategy, http://www.gazprom.com/eng/a-rticles/article8523.shtml , Iran: Natural Gas http://www.eia.-doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Iran/NaturalGas.html.

52 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, 29. 2007. 53 Carmen Gentile, Algeria Trades Oil Rights for Russian Arms International Relations and Security

Network, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=15542.

25

(Rafael Urdaneta Urumaco). - , , , , - , 2006. ,54 . , . - .55

- . , , , - . - , OPEC.

, - , . -, . , .56 - , , . , , , .

54 Gazprom Corporate Website, Business Strategy http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article8523.-

shtml Gazprom to Explore Egyptian Gas Middle East Times, 27. 2006, http://www.metimes.com/story

view.php?StoryID=200612290535401035r. 55

,. Jonathan Stern, The RussianUkrainian gas crisis of January 2006 The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 16. 2006, . 9.

56 Carmen Gentile, Algeria Trades Oil Rights for Russian Arms International Relations and Security Network, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=15542.

, /2010

26

. - , - - . , - .57 -, - . , - . , , , OPEC-.

, 2007. , : , - , . .58 , , , , : ... , , . , .59 , - , - . () (2030) 20% - .

, . - .

57 , 11, ( , .), . - , . , -, , , - , , .

58 Russia to Consider Idea of International Gas OPEC RIA Novosti, 1. 2007, http://en.rian.ru/russia/ 20070201/60048917.html.

59 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, 13. , 2007.

27

. , - ; - .

. - , , . - (Russian Unified Gas Transportation System, UGS), , , , . , .

, -

, - . .60

2005. , , , 10,74% .61 50% . - .62

60 270 , General Electric and Ex-xon Mobile. Bloomberg, Gazprom Passes Microsoft as Third Largest Company 28. 2006 [: 2007. PetroChina , : PetroChina- - , . (- : Open JointStock Company, Inc. or LLP ) , , -, 1 , -, , 2008, - 296 . http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087& refer=worldwide&sid =aQyRJI72Kor8 ( 14 2008).]

61 Gazprom Corporate Website, Shares http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article21713.shtml. 62 Gazprom Annual Report 2005, . 18.

, /2010

28

- ( , ), - 1991. , , () 14 , -. , - , , - ; , - . 60% . , - . 29,1 m3, .63 .

, 166 . , , , , , , , -, .64 , - , 50% (Beltransgas), . , . , , , . , , 35% Wingas, 50% Wintershall Erdgas, 49% Ditgaz 5,3% Verbundnetz Gas.65

, , , . , , . (Northern European Gas Pipeline, NEGP), (Nothern stream). , ,

63 (61%) . , , , , , . Gazprom Corporate Website, Gas Resources, http://www.gazprom.com/ eng/articles/article20150.shtml.

64 Gazprom Corporate Website, Subsidiaries http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article22042.shtml. 65

29

, Izvestia NTV. , - , .

, , -

. - , , - . - . - .

-, 1999. , - , - . , , a a -- , . .66

, -, , , - - .67 , - - .68

66 Vladimir V. Putin, Mineral Natural Resources in the Strategy for Development of the Russian Eco-nomy M.E. Sharpe, Inc., : Problems of Post Communism, Vol. 53, No. 1, Janu-ary/February 2006, . 49. (St. Petersburg Mining Institute) 1999. .

67 , . 51. 68 , . 52. ,

, , - , .

, /2010

30

-, 30. 1999. , , . , , : . - ; .69 - , , , .

-, . , - . - . , -, .70

, - - , . - , , , - .71

, (Rosneft) -, - , . , - , . , , -. 2004. , , -, , , - .72

69 Vladimir Putin, Russia at the Turn of the Millennium http://www.geocities.com/capitolhill/parliament/3005/poutine.html

70 [: 2008. ), http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/27/business/27gaz.php ( 14. , 2008).]

71 , 0,007%. . Gazprom Annual Report 2005, 1922).

72 Yuri Zarakhovich, Inside the Yukos Endgame Time, August 22, 2004, http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,901040830685965,00. html.

31

, , ( - , , -) ( , . ). - - . , , , , .73

- . - - ; , . - , - . , - . 166 ( ) .

- ( , .) . - 2004. , , -. 50% 50% ,74 Raiffeisenbank, 50% .

, , : - , -, ? - . , - .

73 , , . .

74 Catherine Belton, Gas Trader Emerges from the Shadows Johnsons Russia List, May 3, 2006, http:// www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/200610331. cfm.

, /2010

32

- - .75 , , .

, . 50% . : - -. , . . - Raiffeisenbank, , , . , . : - . , . . . . .76

. , - . . , , - , - . , - .77 , , - , , . , .78

, , , .79

75 4, 24. 2006. , Its A Gas Funny Business in the TurkmenUkraine Gas Trade Global Witness Publishing Inc, Washington DC 2006, . 50-51.

76 , 7. 2007. President of Russia, Official Web Portal, http://www.kremlin.ru/ eng/text/speeches/2006/02/07/2343_type82916_101277.shtml

77 Its A Gas Funny Business in the TurkmenUkraine Gas Trade Global Witness Publishing Inc, Washington DC 2006, . 50.

78 . 56. 79 , .

1% 2003. 2004, 35%. -

33

: , - . - . , , . -, - , , -, , . - - . - - 80 - .81

,

, 2006. . , 130 1.000 m3, : (1) -, (2) - 2017. , -, (3) (4) .82 , - . , , , , . . , , Michael Freedman and Heidi Brown, Energy Tsar Forbes.com, July 24, 2006, http://members.forbes.com/forbes/2006/0724/094_2.html.

80 Vladimir V. Putin, Mineral Natural Resources in the Strategy for Development of the Russian Economy, , Inc. Problems of Post Communism, Vol. 53, No. 1, January/February 2006, . 52.

81 Vladimir Putin, Russia at the Turn of the Millennium http://www.geocities.com/capitolhill/parliament-/3005/poutine.html.

82 The Price of the Vote//: Kommersant, October 20, 2006, http://www.kommersant.com/p714949/Referendum_ NATO_Ukraine/. [odatak:

, /2010

34

,83 - . - , - , - . -, , , .84

, , . - -, .

-

- . , -, -, Russia, Inc., , .85

2006. , , . - 1.000 m3, . http://www.unian.net/eng/news/news235920. html http://unian.net/eng/news/news239931. html ( 14. 2008.)]

83 35 % . - , , , . -, 80 % , .

84 , , 2006, , - . - , , - , -.

85 Russias Energetic Enigma Economist.com, 6. 2005, : http://www.economist.com/dis-playstory.cfm?story_id=4484349

35

, ...86 - (Unified Gas Transporta-tion System UGS), .

coup de grace - 2007. , , .87 - , 60% . - , : , , Nortgaz, Rospan International.88 19,9% -, , . , , - .89

, - , ; - .90

, . 2006. -, 230 250 m3 . - 26 49 m3 .91 -

86 18 2006 . N 117 - [Federal Law of the Russian Federation of 18 July, 2006 on the Export of Gas, http://www.rg.ru/2006/ 07/20/gazexportdok. html.

87 Gazprom Free to Buy Up Russian Gas Producers Kommersant, January 15, 2007, http://www.kom-mersant.com/ p733954/r_500/Gazprom_Gas_Production/.

88 47,5 m3 , - 29,1 m3. - , , , Nort-gaz, Rospan International. Russia: Permission for Gazprom to Rule the Energy Sector, Stratfor, http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=282974.

89 . 90 Checkmate Novatek Deal Strengthens Gazproms Position in Russia and Beyond Global Insight,

http:// www.globalinsight.com/SDA/SDADetail6239.htm. 91 Gazprom Corporate Website, Distribution, http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article20159.shtml. -

26,5 US .

, /2010

36

, - . , .

, - . - , : - , .

2 -

- , 2, - 2006. . - 2 (Pro-duction Sharing Agreement PSA) -- (Royal Dutch Shell) (Mitsui) (Mitsubishi). , . -, , - , . .

, 100% -, , 2007. 2008. . - . 2 498 92 100 .

92 Energy Information Administration, Sakhalin Fact Sheet http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Sakhalin/images/sakhalin_0905_wk.html.

37

2006. , - , - .

- -e Sakhalin Energy Investment Corporation (SE-IC), .

2006. , - , 50 SEIC 7,45 , 11 .93 , , , SEIC- . - , , , , : - , - .94

- - 2. . - , , . -: . [...] , .95 , - , , , . , - - 1999. - .

93 , SEIC . Gazprom Secures Half of Sakhalin2 for 7.45 Billion Dollars AFP Business News, 22. - 2006, http://au.biz.yahoo.com/061221/33/10x70.html.

94 Japan Urges Russia to be Responsible After Gas Takeover AFP Business News 22. , 2006 http://au.biz.yahoo.com/061222/33/10yr8.html.

95 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, December 22, 2006.

, /2010

38

-

. (RU-SIA Petroleum), TNK-BP (British Petroleum) (Interros), , .96 , , . PSA ( - , . .), - je 2006. - 9 m3.97 , . - - . . , , - . , .98 , , - - .

- , , , - -, - .99 .

2 - . ,

96 2, New.RU.com, January 18, 2007, http://www.newsru.com/finance/18jan2007/prirodnadzor.html.

97 TNK-BP Unable to Eliminate License Violations Kommersant, March 6, 2007, http://www.kommersant.com/p10254/ r_529/kovykta_license/.

98 2, New.RU.com, January 18, 2007, http://www.newsru.com/finance/18jan2007/prirodnadzor.html.

99 TNK BP Unable to Eliminate License Violations Kommersant, March 6, 2007, http://www.kommers-ant.com/p10254/r_529/kovykta_license/.

39

2006. ; - 50% . - 2007. - . 1,9 m3 , 100 , , - .101 2 2003. , - .

, ,

. ? , , - , -. , , , - . - , , , -, .

( -) . (Roman Kupchinsky)

100 Miriam Elder, Mitvol Targets the TNK BP Kovykta License The Saint Petersburg Times, March 2, 2007, http://www.sptimes.ru/index.php?action_id=2&story_id=20850.

101 British petroleuma 2007. , LNG . Alex Nicholson, BP, Gazprom Discuss LNG Joint Venture Associated Press, March 1, 2007, http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/03/01/ap3475945.html.

[: 2008. , - ( 2008). :http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372218, and http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nach richten200712/artikel9612819.asp (accessed July 14, 2008).] ( 14. 2008)].

, /2010

40

.102 2,6 - () .103

, - . - - , - , .104

. - , 250 , . 7 : ... - , , - , - , -, .105

, , ( ) , .106 , . - , UGS, - .

2006. . , . - , . , - ; , ?

102 Roman Kupchinsky, Russia: Does Gazprom Have a Master Pipeline Plan? Radio Free Europe http:// www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/01/fd3d68ab85514b4f8b7df8257af7c1ab.html.

103 . 104 Vladimir Kovalev, Gazproms Power Play BusinessWeek.com, March 6. 2007, http://www.busines-

sweek.com/print/globalbiz/content/mar2007/gb20070306_599860.htm. 105 The Energy Charter Treaty, 48. www.energycharter.org 106 Igor Tomberg, Russian Europe: Serious Difficulties of the Energy Dialogue Strategic Culture Fo-

undation, November 11, 2006, http://en.fondsk.ru.

41

, , , , , .107

: . , - . , , UGS. - e, , . , 108 , , - , . . - -, 2007,109 - , - .

, -

. , ( (Energy Policy Committee), : , . - .110 -

107 Igor Tomberg, Thus Spoke Putin: Russia Upholds Principle of Equality in Energy Sphere The Ja-mestown Foundation, September 15, 2006, http://www.jamestown.org/publications_details.php?volume_id=414&issue_id=3856&article_id=2371449.

108 , , - .

109 : , . : http://www.eu2006.fi/news_and_documents/press_releases/vko47/de_DE/175543/, http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/08/1099&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en ( 14. 2008).

110 Stephen Boykewich, St. Petersburg Mining Institute Rector Makes Plan for the Creation of Russia, Inc. The St. Petersburg Times, June 20, 2006.

, /2010

42

, Economist : , , , - .111

e - . 1991. . , . , . - 35% .112 a - .

1999, - : . - , - . - , .113

, , , : .114

, ; -, , , , - .

; 75 - ,

111 Russias Energetic Enigma The Economist, October 6, 2005, http://www.economist.com/business/displayStory.cfm?story_id=4484349.

112 : William Pfaff, Russias Deep Ani-mosity International Herald Tribune, March 5, 2007, http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/05/opinion/ed-pfaff.php.

113 Vladimir Putin, Russia at the Turn of the Millennium http://www.geocities.com/capitolhill/parlia-ment/3005/poutine.html.

114 Roundtable discussion of Russian policy makers from Russias Priorities International Affairs, Oc-tober 2006, East View Publications, Moscow, . 33.

43

10 , .115 (45% ) - , - .116 .

, - . , 25% ,117 . -,118 190 2015. , , , .119

, . : - , - , - , .120

, - , - . , , - , .

115 : William Pfaff, Russias Deep Ani-mosity International Herald Tribune, March 5, 2007, http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/05/opinion/ed-pfaff.php.

116 . 117 Chris Skrebowski, Gazprom Regrets, Energy Institute, http://www.energyinst.org.uk/index.cfm?PageID=

1064. 118 :

, . Vladimir Putin, Russia at the Turn of the Millennium http://www.geocities.com/capitolhill/parliament/3005/poutine.html.

119 Russia Prepares to Revise Military Doctrine in Response to USAs Missile Defense Plans Prav-da.com, 5. mart 2007, http://english.pravda.ru/news/russia/05032007/88005military_doctrine0.

120 Vladimir Putin, Russia at the Turn of the Millennium http://www.geocities.com/capitolhill/parliament/3005/ poutine.html.

, /2010

44

, . , - . , o - , , , 121 , . - , , - .

- , , ( , , ), 30% .122 , . , -, . , , , - . .

-

, , , , . , , - - . .

121 , 2008. .

122 21% , 1011% .

45

,

, , - . - , - ( ) 123 . - - , 99% ,124 . , , .125

, , . .126 , ( ) . - -, . , , , 40 1.000 m3, . e. , - : , . .127

, , - - . ,

123 , .

124 () 2005, 100% .

125 Mikhail Dmitriev, Russias Energy Key Strategy Russia in Global Affairs, No. 4 Vol. 4, 2006, . 122123 Vladimir Milov, NeoCon Plans and the Sober Reality Russia in Global Affairs, No. 4 Vol. 4, 2006, . 124.

126 Vladimir Milov, NeoCon Plans and the Sober Reality Russia in Global Affairs, No. 4 Vol. 4, 2006, . 125128.

127 , -, , .

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46

() , . , - , - .128

. , - 9% ,129 - . - , , - 2013, 130 , - .

, , . - .

, - 230 250 1.000 m3 . - , , - . - , .

,131 - , , - . .

128 . , , , .

129 World Bank Website, China, Country Partnership Strategy http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EX-TERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/CHINAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:20583507~pa-gePK:1497618~piPK:217854~theSitePK:318950,00.html.

130 15 . 131 12,6 % .

47

, . - CO2, - .

- . , - , , - -. , 2007, - 8 - .132 , , . , , .

- , , - . - . , , , , . : , , - . - - .133

- , . - -

132 Paul Ames, EU Leaders Agree to Cut Greenhouse Gases Associated Press, March 9, 2007, http://news. yahoo.com/s/ap/20070309/ap_on_re_eu/eu_summit.

133 - . , , , .

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48

.134 , - - , - - , - , .

, , .

, , , , - ( ), , . , , , , . , , - : - .135

. - , - . - (The International Thermonuclear Ex-perimental Reactor ITER) 30 ( ), .136 , -

134 Damien Gaul and Kobi Platt, Shortterm Energy Outlook Supplement: US LNG Imports The Next Wave, Energy Information Administration, January 2007, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/LNG-_Jan2007.pdf.

135 Aleksander Medvedev, Gazexport: Achievements and Prospects International Affairs, Vol. 52, No. 5, 2006, . 154.

136 William Underhill, The Big Burst: Fusion is Back, Newsweek: Special Edition Breaking Out, Whe-re the Energy Boom Will Lead Us, 2006, Newsweek Inc., New York, . 8283.

49

20452050. . .

, - . - , . , ( -, . .), , , .137 , . , , , - . , ; - . , .

, (UGS)

-, , . . , -

137 e e e. - , - . - -. : - . Mikhail Delyagin, Assessing Russias Energy Doctrine Russia in Global Affairs, No. 4, Vol. 4, 2006, . 139144.

, /2010

50

, , . - , . ( , , ), 2 3 .138

1 ( )

2006. , -

, - , . , , -

138 . , . , - . , - 3,4 USD. Blue Stream Na-tural Gas Pipeline Russia/Turkey http://www.offshoretechnology.com/projects/blue_stream/.

, % ,

,

51

, 10 m3 ,139 a -, , - .140

- , . - 140 m3, 20 % .141 , , - , 50 - m3 .142 - () . - , , 60 - m3, 8090 m3 2010. .143

, - . 2,9 m3, , 2006, - , 7 - m3.144 , -

139 Energy Information Administration, Central Asia: Natural Gas http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Centasia/ NaturalGas.html.

140 . e , , , . , , - , , , , - . - . , , .

141 . 142 , -

o 2006. 56 m3. , - . Jonathan Stern, The RussianUkrainian gas crisis of January 2006 The Ox-ford Institute for Energy Studies, 16. , 2006, . 9.

143 Aleksander Medvedev, Gazexport: Achievements and Prospects International Affairs, Vol. 52, No. 5, 2006, . 148.

144 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, Turkmenistan: Potential SuperGiant Emerges on Energy Scene November 10, 2006, http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/11/CB06DCDEC0D740C7B0E98AC1BD48F6 F2.html.

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52

, - . - , 7080 m3 , - , . .

, . , . , , , - . - . - , - . ( ), .

- . , .145 , , - . , - -

145 - , , . [: 2007. : ; , - . http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/ europe/ 7116218.stm. 2008: . http://www.jamestown.org/edm/ article.php?article_id=2372730. 2008:, , - 2009. . http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1475499/turkmenistan_kazakhstan _hold_talks on_turkmen_gas_exports/index.html#. 14. 2008. .]

53

, , - . - , , - .

, , -, , -, , , , . , -, , .

, , -. , - . , . 90% , , , , , .146 2030 ; - , - e 2010. 2015. .147

-. 20002001. .148 (UGS),

146 (Gazprom Corporate Website), Development Strategy http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article8523.shtml EIA Website Map Selected Oil and Gas Pipeline Infrastructure in the Former Soviet Union http:// www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Russia/images/fsu_energymap.pdf. 147 East European Gas Analysis Website, Russian Gas Insight 20061

http://www.eegas.com/images/20061/ RGI_20061_ Overview.pps. 148 Jonathan Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom Oxford Energy Forum, 2005, . 12.

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54

, - .

(547 m3 2007) 1015 m3 - .149 2010, - . , - , 3,7 m3, - 10,4 m3 ( ), - , 2,7 m3, - , .150 - 250 m3 , , - 2020. 2030. .

, , , . . - .

, 2006, . - 49%, a -. , - . 50% - 2 2006, 7,45 -, . 13 ,151 20 25 .152 -

149 Gazprom Corporate Website, Business Strategy http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article8523.shtml 150 Gazprom Corporate Website: Business Strategy http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/artic-

le8523.shtml Major Projects http://www.gazprom.ru/eng/articles/article21712.shtml, Energy Infor-mation Administration, Sakhalin Island http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Sakhalin/Full.html.

151 Gazprom Corporate Website, Annual Report 2005, http://www.gazprom.com/documents/An-nual_Report_Eng_2005.pdf, p. 58.

152 Jonathan Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom Oxford Energy Forum, 2005, . 12.

55

. , 40 .153

, , . 20 % - - 30 20 .154 , - . - , , - . , , - , , .

- . , , , . , -, 20 25 .

. - . , , - 23,5 m3 2030. .155 .

-, . .156 - . 12.000 60%.157

153 , . - .

154 . 155 Gazprom Corporate Website, Gas Resources http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article20150.shtml. 156 Gazprom Corporate Website, Business Strategy http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article8523.shtml. 157 Gazprom Corporate Website, Distribution http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/article21059.shtml.

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56

, -, .

, - - . , 100 . - , , - 158 . , - , 22 -.159 , . - ,160 - ; , ( - ), , .

, 299 ( 2006. ). , 88 .161 , - , . -, -

158 , - Russias Natural Gas in Trouble Energy Tribune, http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=307.

159 563 , 30. 2006, , 22 . OAO Gazprom Consolidated Interim Condensed Financial Information September 30, 2006, . 1819.

160 Exxon Mobile 2005. - 36 ; Royal Dutch Shell Fortune Glo-bal 500, http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2006/snapshots/ 979.html.

161 Russian Oil Fund Surges to $88.4 Billion Alexanders Oil and Gas Connections, http://www.gasandoil.com/ goc/news/ntr70531.htm.

[: 2008, 574 (: Wikipedia); 2008: 157 - (: Wikipedia); 14. 2008].

57

-, , , .

-, , - . - . - , - - .162 -. 4 5 . , - - . - .

, , , , . 2020. , 2003, - .163 - , . , - 598 m3 2005. , 405 m3 .164 - , .165 , 10 15% - 40 60 m3 .

- ,

162 - The Summary of the Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period Up to 2020, , http://ec.europa.eu/energy/russia/events/doc/2003_stra-tegy_2020_en.pdf.

163 , , 5-10 . .

164 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006: Natural Gas, p. 27, http://www.bp.com/liveas-sets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_revi-ew_2006/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/natural_gas_section_2006.pdf.

165 , . 2,8 m3, 2,1 m3 .

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58

, .

, - , , .

, -. OPEC . - , . - -, . . - .

. , - , , , . , , - . , - , . , - . , - , : (1) , (2) - (3) - .

. , , . - - , , - .

59

() ( ), - . -; , . , - , - - ; , , , .

, ( ) -

. : (1) , (2) , (3) - (4) . - , . , 166 . , .

(Nord Stream)

2005, -

1.195 , , -e (UGS) , - .

166 Doing More With Less Green Paper on Energy Efficiency European Commission, http://ec.euro-pa.eu/energy/efficiency/doc/2005_06_green_paper_book_en.pdf.

, /2010

60

E. ON BASF . , 51% . - , ; -. 2010, 27,5 , 55 m3 -.167 : - , , - , , , . , , e (UGS) (. ) , .

2 , 168

167 Gazprom Corporate Website, Nord Stream Gas Pipeline, http://www.gazprom.com/eng/articles/ar-

ticle18466.shtml. 168 .

61

, , , - . ( 100 1.000 m3, ) , , 80% .169 270 m3 2030. , 55 m3 , - , , - . , - .

- , , . ; , . , , , , . , .170

5 , .171 , ,

169 Jonathan Stern, The RussianUkrainian Gas Crisis of January 2006 The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 16. , 2006, . 2.

170 . , , . , , , - , 200% . , , , , . - . , Russias Energy Policy: Security Dimensions and Russias Reliability as an Energy Supplier Swedish Defense Research Agency, Ma 2006. , 1999. , , , ( 4).

171 , 115 m3 175 m3 . 5 m3 -

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62

. - , . . , , - , , , . , - , - .

- , .172 173 .174 - . N BASF ,175 - , . - . . - ( , ) . ( ), , 2015. , . Roland Gotz, The North European Pipeline: Increasing Energy

Security or Political Pressure? Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, http://www.swpberlin.org/de/common/get_document.php?asset_id=2439

172 , . - , 22. 2007, . , . Mark Beunderman, Merkel Presses Putin to Avoid Further EU Energy Irritation 22. - 2007.; http://www.ezilon.com/information/article_17544.shtml.

173 NEP- ( ) -. . .

174 , - , .

175 [: , 2011/12. . : http://www.nordstream.com/en/project/factsfigures.html ( 14. 2008)]

63

, .176 . - ; , - . , , .

- . , , . . ATO- - ATO ; . , , . - , - .

, , , 1. 2006. .

, , , , - . 2012. ; -

176 2004. . -. Roland Gotz, The North European Pipeline: Increasing Energy Security or Political Pressure? Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, http://www.swpberlin. org/de/common/get_document.php?asset_id=2439.

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64

31 2020. .177 , . (. 3) , , .

3 (

)178

, - 23 . ( 7 ), - . 30 ,

177 Nabucco Gas Pipeline Project http://www.seerecon.org/infrastructure/sectors/energy/documents/031005gas/Nabucco%2-0Presentation%20Belgrad%20Oct%202005.pdf Corporate Website Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH. Project Timeline http://www.nabuccopipeline.com/project/projecttimeline/indexkopie. html

178 Corporate Website Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH, Markets for Nabucco http://www.nabuccopipeline.com/company/marketssourcesfornabucco/indexkopie. html.

65

, , . ; , - , - . 2006. , , , -, , . , 6,3 , , .179 , . - , , - , .

80% ,180 . -, . , - , - , -.181 - , . - - , - - .182

179 - , - . . Judy Dempsey, Ga-zproms Grip on Western Europe Tightens with Pipelines to Hungary International Herald Tribune, 22. 2006, http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/06/22/business/gas.php.

180 Jonathan Stern, The RussianUkrainian Gas Crisis of 2006 http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/com-ment_010 6.pdf.

181 , , . , - - , .

182 , . 64% . . 180.

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66

, , : - .183 , . , , : - . - . .184 - .

- . - 1,4 m3 K ora.185 e e - , e e . , - , . 2007. - . , -, 20 2012. ; 50 100% .186 ,187 , . 10 20 % , . . , , - .

183 26. 2006: Andris Piebalgs,Nabuc-co Pipeline Searching for Alternate Routes for our Gas Supply http://europa.eu/rapid/pressRelease-sAction.do?reference=SPEECH/06/413&format=PDF&aged=1&language=EN&guiLanguage=en.

184 . 185 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006: Natural Gas, p. 22, http://www.bp.com/liveas-

sets/bp_internet/ globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2006/STAGING/lo-

cal_assets/downloads/pdf/natural_gas_section_2006.pdf. 186 US Official-Azerbaijan Eyes 20 bcm Gas Exports http://www.bakutoday.net/view.php?d=33513. 187 [Supplement: Information on production only available as recent as 2006]

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Azerbaijan/NaturalGas.html ( 14. 2008).]

67

: , - , , , - , , . , , , 2009, 2010. .188 51 - , , -.189 2005. 65 - ,190 26 m3 -.191 , - , 90 m3 , 57% 2005. .192 - . , , , , , .

, - , 2009. .193 16% , . , -

188 Medgaz Corporate Website, FAQs, http://www.medgaz.com/medgaz/pages/faqseng.htm Sonatrach Corporate Website, Galsi, the New Route for Algerian Gas to Italy and Europe www.sonatrachdz.com/presentations/session32/poti.pdf.

189 . 190 Algeria Sets a Gas Export Target of 85 bcm by 2010 Middle East Economic Survey,

www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidv49n271TS04. 191 Energy Information Administration, LNG Exporters http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/glo-

bal/exporters.html. 192 2010-2011. 90 -

57% 156 . 193 , ,

2006. , 8 m3. ENI CEO Opti-mistic Italy Will Have Sufficient Gas Supply for Winter ( ENI, : ), International Herald Tribune, 17. 2006, http://www.iht.com/ar-ticles/ap/2006/10/17/business/EU_FIN_Italy_Gas.php.

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68

( ). - , - , .

4 194

()

,

. 22% , 11% , .

194 Jonathan Stern, UK Pipeline Gas and LNG Supplies from the Middle East, Africa, Caspian, and Russia: Prospects and Consequences Power Point Presentation by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, London.

13. 2006. , . 18.

:

69

47,6 m3 2005. .195 , , 65% . , , .196 - , .

5 ( )

() 14 -

89,6 m3. 2005. - 50% ,197

195 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006: Natural Gas, . 22, http://www.bp.com/liveas-sets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_revi-ew_2006/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/natural_gas_section_2006.pdf.

196 , (, ) ( ) .

197 14 - . LNG in Europe: An Overview of European Import Terminals, Law Firm of King and Spalding, http://www.kslaw.com/library/pdf/LNG_in_Europe.pdf.

: /

:

:

:

/

, /2010

70

, . , - 183 m3.198 , , , . . 80% 2020. , - - .

- - , , , , , . , - . , , - , -.

( , -; , ; , , ) .199 - ; .

183 m3 , . . - , - . -, , -, . , -,200 ,

198 . 199 [: 2008

http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/worldwide_western_europe.html ( 14. 2008).] 200 (/) 12,9. BP

Statistical Review of World Energy 2006: Natural Gas, . 24, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/s-tatistical_energy_review_2006/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/natural_gas_section_2006.pdf.

71

. , , , . , 100 m3 2020. .

10 m3 - . - 1012 , , . - - , , . , -, , . , , - , .

, 300 , , - 800 , , : , - . 600 .201 , 6 - 100 m3 . 5 - 55 m3 . , - . , , . , -, .

, , - , -

201 - LNG in Europe: An Overview of European Import Terminals King Spalding, http://www.kslaw.com/library/pdf/LNG_in_Europe.pdf.

, /2010

72

, - .

6 2007. () ,

10 . , 100 m3 - , 2015. 175 m3 -, 2020. 225 m3 , 2025. 275 - m3 . , . , ;202 - , , .

202 227 m3 . . -27 2005. - 471 m3. , -

:

73

- , . . , .203

-, 20 % - , - . , 4050 - m3 . ( - : , , , , 204 ) . , - . , , .

,

. -, 20252030, 24 % ( 2005) 3334 %. 647 m3 . 176 m3 , , -27 . -27 199 - m3 2005. . 20 , R/P (Reserves-to-production ratio ) 12,9 ; , . , , .

203 . - , , , .

204 , , , . - 60 % .

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74

. , , - , . , - .205

, , - .206 , . ( ) ( ), 65 - .207 , - , .

, , . - . , - . 1, - , ,

205 , , (, , ) , . - , , , .

206 (R/P) 65 . , , -. , , , - 2030. . , . - e , - . 179 m3 - 119 m3 . , - , , . Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2006, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/nat_gas.html.

207 . - ; . , - . Dudley Herschbach, The Bottomless Well Newsweek Spe-cial Edition: Breaking Out, Where Will the Energy Boom Lead Us? December 2006, p. 7273.

75

- . , . - , , , .

, . - , , .208

, 2007, -

- , , , - 2020. 20% .209 6,5% -,210 13,5% . - 10% - 20% 2020. .211 . , , , , .

208 () 24 % - . 39 % 2030. -. . Energy Information Administration, Internati-onal Energy Outlook 2006, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/excel/figure_42data.xls and http://www.natu-ralgas.org/overview/uses_industry.asp.

209 EU Sets Target of 20% from Renewables by 2020 RenewableEnergyAccess.com, March 12, 2007, http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story?id=47722.

210 . 211 .

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76

, - , , - .212

- . 20% - , , , . , , - .

, - 20% , . - . - . ; , - - . , , , .

, , . , . , - , - , -, . . , . , - , . - , , .

, , - .

212 Constant Brand, EU to Make Renewable Energy Targets Binding CNEWS, March 8, 2007, http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Science/2007/03/08/3715776ap.html.

77

. , , -, , - . - , 27 - .

14% -

. .213

- , . , , , . , , , - .

- . , . , , , , - . - - -, , , . , , , . - - , .

213 Green Paper: A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy Energy In-formation Administration, International Energy Outlook 2006, . 9.

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78

- - , .

, - . , .214 . - , - .215 , , , . (the Massachusetts In-stitute of Technology): -.216

-

, - , , , . .217 -, CO2 .

2007. , -, CO2 .218

214 Thomas Graham and Michael Howard, The Lost Chance Newsweek Special Edition Breaking Out, Where Will the Energy Boom Lead Us?, Newsweek, Inc., New York, 2006, . 81.

215 The Future of Nuclear Power An Interdisciplinary MIT Study 23. 2003, http://web.mit.edu/nuc-lear power/.

216 . 217 1 ,

(R/P) 180 -. Energy Information Administration, World Coal Markets http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/coal.html.

218 , . , -

79

(carbon capture and sequester CCS) , 30% .219 CCS - , . , - , - CCS . - - . , , CCS .220 24% , 13% ,221 .

, -

( ) -, . - - ( ), - -, , .

-, , . , .222 , , , , -.The Future of Coal An Interdisciplinary MIT Study, March 14, 2007, http://web.mit.edu/coal/.

219 Emily Flynn Vincent, The New Coal Car Newsweek Special Edition Breaking Out: Where Will the Energy Boom Lead Us?, Newsweek, Inc., New York, 2006, . 68.

220 Energy Information Administration, World Estimated Recoverable Coal http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/internat-ional/iea2003/table82.xls.

221 Energy Information Administration, Coal (), www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/coal.html. 222 CIA Factbook, Country Reports on Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/

factbook/.

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80

. - - , , . 35% .223 25 m3 224 , - .

-. . -, , , . - , , , .

- . , - , . , -, - . , 3040 , - ,

223 Energy Efficiency in Ukraine, European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, http://www.ebrd.com/ pubs/factsh/themes/eeukr.pdf.

224 , , - , ; 25 - m3 35% 73 m3, 2005. , : BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006: Natural Gas, 22),, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publi

cations/statistical_energy_review_2006/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/natural_gas_section_2006.pdf.

81

, - - , . - , . , - , , .

- , . - , . -, , , .

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