01 ic en presentation_21_may_2015
TRANSCRIPT
15.04.2023
Macroeconomic analysis in treasury activities routine
(information used in presentation is based on the following sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Rosstat, analytical reports of VTB, GPB, Raiffeisen)
Moscow & MO, 192
Russian regions,
109
CIS, 23
Europe, 19
KEY FACTS
Total – 343
Segmented by Region (number) Growth in number of restaurants
Brand Corp. Franch. Total
76 69 145
61 58 119
7 7
6 6
23 23
30 30
Other 13 13
Total 216 127 343
74 101 129 140 169263 255 249 255
330253 2165
1318
3463
74 95 113 127
129
131127
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Franch.
Corp.
• Rosinter is the leading casual dining operator.
• Brand Portfolio: Proprietary brands: IL Patio, Planet Sushi,
American Bar & Grill, Mama Russia Franchise brands: T.G.I. Friday’s, Costa Coffee,
and for transportation hubs - McDonald’s
• Present in 40 cities and 10 countries
• 343 restaurants: 313 casual dining (186 corporate and 127 franchise stores) and 30 coffee stores
• IL Patio and Planet Sushi are among the most recognized brands in Russia
• Turnover for 2014 = 9 BRUB
Source: Company data, 31/12/2014 2
Presence in 40 cities in 10 countries:• Russia• Ukraine• Kazakhstan• Belarus• Poland
OUR GEOGRAPHY
• Latvia
• Hungary
• Czech Republic
• Moldova
• Azerbaijan
Presence in 11 transportation hubs:Airports:
• Sheremetyevo (Moscow)• Pulkovo (St. Petersburg)• Borispol (Kiev, Ukraine)• Tolmachevo (Novosibirsk)• Kazan (Kazan)
Railway stations:
• Kursky (Moscow)
• Paveletsky (Moscow)
• Leningradsky (Moscow)
• Belorussky (Moscow)
• Kazansky (Moscow)
• Yaroslavsky (Moscow)
Moscow
Perm
Kazan
St.Petersburg
RigaYurmalaMinsk
Penza
Wroclaw
Prague
Budapest
Kiev
Rostov-on-Don
UlyanovskKemerovo
Samara
Ekaterinburg
Tumen
Surgut
Astana
Almaty
Omsk Novosibirsk
Novokuznetsk
Barnaul
Krasnoyarsk
Yaroslavl
Ufa
N.Novgorod
Warsaw
Izhevsk
Cherepovets
Kishinev
Krasnodar
Saratov
Stavropol
Tver
Baku
Sevastopol
3
Kursk
4
Sources of data available
• Analytical reports from the banks• Databases – Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg• CBR reports (cbr.ru)• Rosstat (gks.ru)• MOEX
5
Bank analytical reports - evolutionFebruary, 2015
May, 2015
6
Bank analytical reports - evolution
March, 2015
May, 2015
7
PollsUSD polls, May 2015
EUR polls, May 2015
8
PollsUSD polls, May 2015
EUR polls, May 2015
9
Treasurer approach for real economy finance
• Scenarios is THE MUST- Base / Worst / Best case forecast- Inclusion of GDP / CPI / FX as influencing factors
• Sensitivity testing- E.g. cost items impact on EBITDA
• New KPIs- Addition of Cash Flow indicators in liaison with Revenue/EBITDA- Treasurer as earning function
• Reactivity and flexibility- New tools and learnings- Best practices sharing (e.g. IFRS for non-public)- Flexible cash budget- Analysis of finance partners
10
Macroeconomics – unique or not
11
Macroeconomics
• Key indicators- GDP – decline is not dramatic as forecasted before (3-4%)- Oil price uncertainty forces the high range of scenarios on USD rates / budget impact- CPI: consensus 10-13%- Nominal wages – slow growth / decline
• Banks- Carrying on “cleaning” in line with measures of support- Signs of possible deeper problems than expected earlier on?- Overall expectations for speed up of financing recovery – key rate impact is essential
• Focus- Hedging – much more careful analysis required- Taxes / Deoffshorization- Sanctions- Legislation changes – new regulator initiatives to be followed closely