0 chapter 25 production and growth education govt can increase productivity by promoting...

CHAPTER 25 PRODUCTION AND GROWTH 1

Education Govt can increase productivity by promoting

education–investment in human capital (H).

• public schools, subsidized loans for college

Education has significant effects: In the U.S., each year of schooling raises a worker’s wage by 10%.

But investing in H also involves a tradeoff between the present & future: Spending a year in school requires sacrificing a year’s wages now to have higher wages later.


Health and Nutrition

Health care expenditure is a type of investment in human capital – healthier workers are more productive.

In countries with significant malnourishment, raising workers’ caloric intake raises productivity:

• Over 1962-95, caloric consumption rose 44% in S. Korea, and economic growth was spectacular.


caloric consumption


Nobel winner Robert Fogel

30% of Great Britain’s growth from 1790-1980 was due to improved nutrition.


Property Rights and Political Stability

Recall: Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity. The price system allocates resources to their most efficient uses.

This requires respect for property rights, the ability of people to exercise authority over the resources they own.



In many poor countries, the justice system doesn’t work very well:

• contracts aren’t always enforced

• fraud, corruption often go unpunished

• in some, firms must bribe govt officials for permits

Political instability (e.g., frequent coups) creates uncertainty over whether property rights will be protected in the future.



When people fear their capital may be stolen by criminals or confiscated by a corrupt govt, there is less investment, including from abroad, and the economy functions less efficiently. Result: lower living standards.

Economic stability, efficiency, and healthy growth require law enforcement, effective courts, a stable constitution, and honest govt officials.


Free Trade Inward-oriented policies

(e.g., tariffs, limits on investment from abroad) aim to raise living standards by avoiding interaction with other countries.

Outward-oriented policies (e.g., the elimination of restrictions on trade or foreign investment) promote integration with the world economy.

The World Trade Organization is the only global international organization dealing with the rules of trade between nations. At its heart are the WTO agreements, negotiated and signed by the bulk of the world’s trading nations and ratified in their parliaments.


Free Trade Recall: Trade can make everyone better off.

Trade has similar effects as discovering new technologies – it improves productivity and living standards.

Countries with inward-oriented policies have generally failed to create growth.

• e.g., Argentina during the 20th century.

Countries with outward-oriented policies have often succeeded.

• e.g., South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan after 1960.


Now, the key

“ I am looking for a lot of men who have infinite capacity to not know what

can't be done.”

-- Henry Ford


Research and Development

Technological progress is the main reason why living standards rise over the long run.

One reason is that knowledge is a public good: Ideas can be shared freely, increasing the productivity of many.

Policies to promote tech. progress:

• patent laws

• tax incentives or direct support for private sector R&D

• grants for basic research at universities


Population Growth…may affect living standards in 3

different ways:

1. Stretching natural resources

200 years ago, Malthus argued that pop. growth would strain society’s ability to provide for itself.

Since then, the world population has increased sixfold. If Malthus was right, living standards would have fallen. Instead, they’ve risen.

Malthus failed to account for technological progress and productivity growth.


Population Growth

2. Diluting the capital stock

more population = higher L = lower K/L = lower productivity & living standards.

This applies to H as well as K: fast pop. growth = more children = greater strain on educational system.

Countries with fast pop. growth tend to have lower educational attainment.


Population Growth

To combat this, many developing countries use policy to control population growth.

• China’s one child per family laws

• contraception education & availability

• promote female literacy to raise opportunity cost of having babies

2. Diluting the capital stock


Population Growth3. Promoting tech. progress

More people

= more scientists, inventors, engineers

= more frequent discoveries

= faster tech. progress & economic growth

Over the course of human history,

• growth rates increased as the world’s population increased

• more populated regions grew faster than less populated ones

AA CC TT II VV E LE L EE AA RR NN II NN G G 22: : ProductivityProductivity

List the determinants of productivity.

List three policies that attempt to raise living standards by increasing one of the determinants of productivity.

17

AA CC TT II VV E LE L EE AA RR NN II NN G G 22: : AnswersAnswers

18

Determinants of productivity:physical capital per worker (K/L) human capital per worker (H/L) natural resources per worker (N/L) technological knowledge (A)

Policies to boost productivity:

Encourage saving and investment, to raise K/L

Encourage investment from abroad, to raise K/L

Provide public education, to raise H/L


19

Determinants of productivity:physical capital per worker (K/L) human capital per worker (H/L) natural resources per worker (N/L) technological knowledge (A)

Policies to boost productivity:

Patent laws or grants, to increase A

Control population growth, to increase K/L


Are Natural Resources a Limit to Growth?

Some argue that population growth is depleting the Earth’s non-renewable resources, and thus will limit growth in living standards.

But technological progress often yields ways to avoid these limits:

• Hybrid cars use less gas.

• Better insulation in homes reduces the energy required to heat or cool them.

As a resource becomes scarcer, its market price rises, which increases the incentive to conserve it and develop alternatives.


CONCLUSION

In the long run, living standards are determined by productivity.

Policies that affect the determinants of productivity will therefore affect the next generation’s living standards.

One of these determinants is saving and investment.

In the next chapter, we will learn how saving and investment are determined, and how policies can affect them.


We have…

Realized that capital accumulation is one of the driving forces for growth.

Now…

We explore the ECONOMICS of capital accumulation.

• Why would firms purchase capital?

• Where does the capital come?

© 2007 Thomson South-Western, all rights reserved

N. G R E G O R Y M A N K I W

PowerPoint® Slidesby Ron Cronovich

26

ECONOMICSP R I N C I P L E S O F

F O U R T H E D I T I O N

Saving, Investment, and the Saving, Investment, and the Financial SystemFinancial System


In this chapter, look for the answers to these questions: What are the main types of financial institutions

in the U.S. economy, and what is their function?

What are the three kinds of saving?

What’s the difference between saving and investment?

How does the financial system coordinate saving and investment?

How do govt policies affect saving, investment, and the interest rate?


Robinson-Crusoe Economy Again…


Saving of Robinson Robinson lives alone;

He makes a living by fishing;

• Notice that Robinson is the producer AND the consumer; or, in another word, he is the firm AND the household.

Suppose fish is storable. Robinson can either eat all the fish he catches, or eat part of it and store the rest – Robinson Saves!

Why would he save? Notice that Robinson has to eat some fish everyday to keep himself alive.

• He knows he may get sick one day; (save for unemployment)• He may need a break the next day; (save for vacation)• He plans to make fishnets the next day to catch more fishes

in the future – Robinson invests! (save for investment).


Now, make it more real…

Fish can be storable, but not for ever.

In the real world, capital depreciates.

If we make the extreme assumption that fish is non-storable, can Robinson save?


Yes, he can; but not alone

Suppose there are two Robinsons.

Robinson 1 Robinson 2


Two Robinsons can make arrangement

Robinson 1 gets sick one day and cannot catch fish.

Robinson 2 helps him out by sharing fish with him

But Robinson 1 makes the promise that he will return the fish back once he recovers and fishes again.

In this case, Robinson 1 is the borrower and Robinson 2 is the saver.

The income of the saver goes to the borrower.


Two Robinsons can make another arrangement…

Robinson 1 wants to spend a day making fishnets to catch more fish in the future;

Robinson 2 helps Robinson 1 by sharing fish with him; Robinson 1 promises that he will give the fish back.

In this case, Robinson 2 is still the saver, but Robinson 1 is the investor.

The investment is financed by saving!


When there are only two Robinsons

They talk and make arrangement;

When there are millions of people as in the real world…

Things take place through MARKET;

In this case, firms’ investment are financed by households’ saving through FINANCIAL MARKETS or FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES – together they constitute financial system


Financial Institutions

The financial system: the group of institutions that helps match the saving of one person with the investment of another.

• Direct interaction – Financial Markets (bonds market, stock market)

• Indirect interaction – Financial Intermediaries. (banks, mutual funds)


Direct interaction between savors and borrowers

Financial markets: institutions through which savers can directly provide funds to borrowers. Examples:

• The Bond Market. A bond is a certificate of indebtedness.

• The Stock Market. A stock is a claim to partial ownership in a firm.


A BOND

Date of maturity: the time when the loan will be paid;

Rate of interest that will be paid periodically until the loan matures.

Bonds are risky!


The Stock Market

Partial ownership by funding the purchase of capital;

Declares share of the corporate profits;

Stocks are riskier than bonds, why?

• Bond represents a firm’s obligation to pay the money back.

• Investors take the risks themselves by purchasing the partial ownership.

• Before a firm goes bankrupt, its remaining assets are used first to pay off the debts.


Stock Exchange

Once stocks are issued, they change owners via the stock exchange market.

• NY Stock Exchange

• American Stock Exchange

• NASDAQ

Stock price of a firm depends on

• The firms’ profitability

• People’s perception for the firms’ future.


1929 Crash of the NY Stock Exchange during the Great

Depression


NASDAQ: the world’s biggest electronic stock exchange system


Stock Price Indexes

Just like GDP deflator is the average price for all goods and services produced in the US;

Stock price indexes is the average price of different companies’ stock prices.

Depending on which companies’ stock price is included, we have:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 30 major US companies such as GM, AT&T…

• Standard&Poor’s 500 Index: 500 major companies.


Financial Institutions

Financial intermediaries: institutions through which savers can indirectly provide funds to borrowers. Examples:

• Banks that take deposits from the households and make loans to firms.

• Mutual funds – institutions pool savings from the public that is invested and managed on their behalf by professional money managers.


Mutual Funds


Different Kinds of Saving

Private saving

= The portion of households’ income that is not used for consumption or paying taxes

= Y – T – C

Public saving

= Tax revenue less government spending

= T – G


National Saving

National saving

= private saving + public saving

= (Y – T – C) + (T – G)

= Y – C – G

= the portion of national income that is not used for consumption or government purchases


Saving and Investment

Recall the national income accounting identity:

Y = C + I + G + NX (-5.8%)

For the rest of this chapter, focus on the closed economy case:

Y = C + I + G

Solve for I:

I = Y – C – G = (Y – T – C) + (T – G)

Saving = investment in a closed economySaving = investment in a closed economy

national saving


Budget Deficits and Surpluses

Budget surplus

= an excess of tax revenue over govt spending

= T – G

= public saving

Budget deficit

= a shortfall of tax revenue from govt spending

= G – T

= – (public saving)


AA CC TT II VV E LE L EE AA RR NN II NN G G 11: : ExerciseExercise

Suppose GDP equals $10 trillion, consumption equals $6.5 trillion, the government spends $2 trillion and has a budget deficit of $300 billion.

Find public saving, taxes, private saving, national saving, and investment.

48



Given: Y = 10.0, C = 6.5, G = 2.0, G – T = 0.3

Public saving = T – G = – 0.3

Taxes: T = G – 0.3 = 1.7

Private saving = Y – T – C = 10 – 1.7 – 6.5 = 1.8

National saving = Y – C – G = 10 – 6.5 = 2 = 1.5

Investment = national saving = 1.5

49


AA CC TT II VV E LE L EE AA RR NN II NN G G 1B1B: : ExerciseExercise

Now suppose the government cuts taxes by $200 billion.

In each of the following two scenarios, determine what happens to public saving, private saving, national saving, and investment.

1. Consumers save the full proceeds of the tax cut.

2. Consumers save 1/4 of the tax cut and spend the other 3/4.

50


AA CC TT II VV E LE L EE AA RR NN II NN G G 1B1B: : AnswersAnswers

In both scenarios, public saving falls by $200 billion, and the budget deficit rises from $300 billion to $500 billion.

1. If consumers save the full $200 billion, national saving is unchanged, so investment is unchanged.

2. If consumers save $50 billion and spend $150 billion, then national saving and investment each fall by $150 billion.

51


AA CC TT II VV E LE L EE AA RR NN II NN G G 1C1C: : Discussion questionsDiscussion questions

Which of these two scenarios do you think is the most realistic?

Why is this question important?

52

The two scenarios are:

1. Consumers save the full proceeds of the tax cut.

2. Consumers save 1/4 of the tax cut and spend the other 3/4.


The Meaning of Saving and Investment

Private saving is the income remaining after households pay their taxes and pay for consumption.

Examples of what households do with saving:

• buy corporate bonds or equities

• purchase a certificate of deposit at the bank

• buy shares of a mutual fund

• let accumulate in saving or checking accounts


The Meaning of Saving and Investment

Investment is the purchase of new capital.

Examples of investment:

• General Motors spends $250 million to build a new factory in Flint, Michigan.

• You buy $5000 worth of computer equipment for your business.

• Your parents spend $300,000 to have a new house built.

Remember: In economics, investment is NOT the purchase of stocks and bonds!

Remember: In economics, investment is NOT the purchase of stocks and bonds!


The Market for Loanable Funds

A supply-demand model of the financial system.

Helps us understand

• how the financial system coordinates saving & investment

• how govt policies and other factors affect saving, investment, the interest rate



Assume: only one financial market.

• All savers deposit their saving in this market.

• All borrowers take out loans from this market.

• There is one interest rate, which is both the return to saving and the cost of borrowing.



The supply of loanable funds comes from saving:

• Households with extra income can loan it out and earn interest.

• Public saving, if positive, adds to national saving and the supply of loanable funds.

If negative, it reduces national saving and the supply of loanable funds.


The Slope of the Supply Curve

InterestRate

Loanable Funds ($billions)

Supply

An increase in the interest rate makes saving more attractive, which increases the quantity of loanable funds supplied.

60

3%

80

6%



The demand for loanable funds comes from investment:

• Firms borrow the funds they need to pay for new equipment, factories, etc.

• Households borrow the funds they need to purchase new houses.


The Slope of the Demand Curve

InterestRate


Demand

A fall in the interest rate reduces the cost of borrowing, which increases the quantity of loanable funds demanded.

50

7%

4%

80


Equilibrium

InterestRate


Demand

The interest rate adjusts to equate supply and demand. Supply

The eq’m quantity of L.F. equals eq’m investment and eq’m saving.

5%

60


Policy 1: Saving Incentives

InterestRate


D1

Tax incentives for saving increase the supply of L.F.S1

5%

60

S2

…which reduces the eq’m interest rateand increases the eq’m quantity of L.F.

4%

70


Policy 2: Investment Incentives

InterestRate


D1

An investment tax credit increases the demand for L.F.S1

5%

60

…which raises the eq’m interest rateand increases the eq’m quantity of L.F.

6%

70

D2


Policy 3: Govt Budget Deficits

InterestRate


D1

A budget deficit reduces national saving and the supply of L.F.

S1

5%

60

S2

…which increases the eq’m interest rateand decreases the eq’m quantity of L.F.

6%

50


AA CC TT II VV E LE L EE AA RR NN II NN G G 22: : ExerciseExercise

Use the loanable funds model to analyze the effects of a government budget deficit:

• Draw the diagram showing the initial equilibrium.

• Determine which curve shifts when the government runs a budget deficit.

• Draw the new curve on your diagram.

• What happens to the equilibrium values of the interest rate and investment?

66



67

InterestRate


D1



S1

5%

60

S2

…which increases the eq’m interest rate

…which increases the eq’m interest rateand decreases the eq’m quantity of L.F. and investment.

6%

50


Budget Deficits, Crowding Out, and Long-Run Growth

Our analysis: increase in budget deficit causes fall in investment. The govt borrows to finance its deficit, leaving less funds available for investment.

This is called crowding out.

Recall from the preceding chapter: Investment is important for long-run economic growth. Hence, budget deficits reduce the economy’s growth rate and future standard of living.


The U.S. Government Debt

The government finances deficits by borrowing (selling government bonds).

Persistent deficits lead to a rising govt debt.

The ratio of govt debt to GDP is a useful measure of the government’s indebtedness relative to its ability to raise tax revenue.

Historically, the debt-GDP ratio usually rises during wartime and falls during peacetime – until the early 1980s.


U.S. Government Debt U.S. Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP, 1970-2005as a Percentage of GDP, 1970-2005

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Revolutionary War

Civil War

WW1

WW2


CONCLUSION Like many other markets, financial markets are

governed by the forces of supply and demand.

One of the Ten Principles from Chapter 1: Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity.

Financial markets also link the present to the future: They enable savers to convert current income into future purchasing power, and borrowers to acquire capital to produce goods and services in the future.

Financial markets help allocate the economy’s scarce resources to their most efficient uses.


CHAPTER SUMMARY

The U.S. financial system is made up of many types of financial institutions, like the stock and bond markets, banks, and mutual funds.

National saving equals private saving plus public saving.

In a closed economy, national saving equals investment. The financial system makes this happen.


CHAPTER SUMMARY The supply of loanable funds comes from saving.

The demand for funds comes from investment. The interest rate adjusts to balance supply and demand in the loanable funds market.

A government budget deficit is negative public saving, so it reduces national saving, the supply of funds available to finance investment.

When a budget deficit crowds out investment, it reduces the growth of productivity and GDP.

0 chapter 25 production and growth education govt can increase productivity by promoting...

Documents

growth slide

economic growth

growth property rights

growth health

healthy growth

growth education govt

great britains growth

rules of trade