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24 , 2012
24,2012
, (.
)
EBITDA, (.
)
, (.
) P/E EV/EBITDA
2010 7 777 610 333 35,4 20,6
2011 11 423 939 418 19,8 10,45
.6000 . 1500 160..
20052011.47%.
,.
, 1000.
.
23%.
MSCIRussia,.
, , 4791.
4379RUR 4791RUR 9,4%, MGNTLSE,GDR MGNT
,. 4379
,. 94561355(..)414084(..) 44477
EV(..) 45856152 447852 2606
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43,8%
2,9%1,9%
51,5%
freefloat
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
14.10.11 14.1.12 14.4.12 14.7.12 14.10.12
24 , 2012
2
. 20042011 . 3,5 . .201119%.10%.
:
, 2005 2010 ,24,2%.
:
20,3%
19,5%
20,3% 20,2% 20,3%
18,1% 18,1%
19,0%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
,%
5,67
8,710,9
13,9 14,616,5
19,8
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
,..
12,2%
10,1%
11,3%
14,0%
15,0%
15,5%
15,6%
17,8%
21,2%
23,7%
24,2%
25,4%
27,1%
37,1%
58,1%
.
.
, CAGR, %, 20052010.
24 , 2012
3
2009., , . . , . ,.
. , ,.2004, INFOLine,48.201010,2012600., 20062008 . . . 20092.2011100,.,.
, . . . ,,.
:INFOLine
, ., . . , .
48 80134
228316
413 452 480
3254
94
88
9739 28
100
0
200
400
600
800
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
,20042011.
0,28 0,520,78
1,321,89
2,4 2,622,88
0,240,26
0,54
0,57
0,510,22
0,260,43
0
1
2
3
4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
.
,20042011.
24 , 2012
4
. , Walmart Carrefour, . , , ..,10%,3040%.
312011.
,.
,..
X5RetailGroup 1918
452,48 321 77 ,
616
5006335,7 93
210 ,,
49
MetroC&C 62 71 ' ',' ,
42
92,21
,,
,,
894
102,23 ,,,,
,,,
225
:,
24 , 2012
5
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:
1999 . . . 2000 . 2005 1 500 . ,.
18
128274
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1226101
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29
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26
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24 , 2012
6
, , , . . , . , (200400 ..). , 85%..
( ) . , ., 80000500000. . .2009 24 3228.
(20092012 .) .2010 . , ,.
,1035%.,.20111000,42208.
:,
368610
10141500
18932197
2582
3228
4057
5006
5717
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1S2012
,20022012.
24 , 2012
7
92012 . 3 . , . ,,90,42%.
:,
9 2012 , . 3,29%, 5,74%.0,54%4,45%.
2010 2011 9M2012 2010 2011 9M2012
,% 2,95% 1,29% 0,54% ,% 9,76% 1,32% 3,29%
,% 5,77% 10,17% 5,02% ,% 5,26% 5,26% 2,38%
,% 8,89% 11,59% 4,45% ,% 15,53% 6,65% 5,74%
, (92%)83% . 2% 16% .(6%1%).
:,
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2008 2009 2010 2011 9M2012
,% ,% ,%
2%
92%
6%
30.06.2012
16%
83%
1%
30.06.2012
24 , 2012
8
3 2012 .
, , 2012 1000, 5055, 500. , . 2010 ,.. , . . , .,92012517,15280 . 29,9%. 42012.
2530%3032%. EBITDA (+) 8,59%99,5%.92012,33%.,.
350 . ..,.,.,40,120 , . 34 . , 70% . , , , . ( 1520%) . .
. . 7 . , . , 1,4.2..
24 , 2012
9
2011 . , 48 . 24 . . . , , , . 66% , .8,01%,20108,14%.
7 20,5. . 7,75% 8,9% . , X5 RetailGroup, 9,5%.
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/EBITDA 20122013. , , 1,41,5, 1,6. .
,,.
:
35%
43%
22%
31.12.2010
43%
12%
34%
11%
31.12.2011
,.
,01 1 RUR 09.09.2013 8,25%
,02 1 RUR 09.09.2013 8,25%
,03 1,5 RUR 09.09.2013 8,25%
,04 2 RUR 09.09.2013 8,25%
,05 5 RUR 28.02.2014 8%
,06 5 RUR 22.04.2014 7,75%
,07 5 RUR 21.09.2015 8,9%
24 , 2012
10
. , 2004 2011 . 47%. , 2009 . .
, EBITDA . 6 10.
EBITDA 2011 ., 2011 2010 3,67%. EBITDA7,85%8,22%2011.
, , , 2012 . . , . , .
:
848 15782505
3677
5348 5354
7777
11423
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
.
1579
122216
397495
610
939
2
37 5797
188275
333418
200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
.
EBITDA EAT
1,78%
5,00%4,89%
5,88%
7,42%
9,25%
7,85%
8,22%
0,20%
2,33%2,27% 2,63%
3,51%
5,14%4,29%
3,67%
2,00%
0,00%
2,00%
4,00%
6,00%
8,00%
10,00%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EBITDAmargin EATmargin
24 , 2012
11
( ) ( ). , ,.
(DCF). ,. , ,.
. , . .
:
1. . 2013 25%32%2012.
2. EBITDA 8,5% 2012 .20138%.
3. ,13%.
4. , . 6% ..
5. 3,7%..
6. , WACC ( ). .
7. .
8. .
24 , 2012
12
. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
11423 14278 17848 22310 27888 34860 43575EBITDA 939 1213 1427 1785 2231 2789 3486EBITDA 8,22% 8,5% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 418 668 785 981 1227 1533 1917 266 312 383 462 524 583 632 31 13 41 36 42 320 146
653 966 1127 1407 1709 2074 2507
1656 1500 1700 1500 1500 1400 1400
740 500 442 535 669 836 1045
(FCF) 263 33 129 442 878 1511 2153
1 0,889 0,790 0,702 0,624 0,554
FCF 33 115 349 616 942 1193
FCF 2930 3,7% 24670 13539 16469
94561355
,. 5224,. 4378,9,% 19,3%
305 5,53%
5% 3,7% 0,96 13,3% 6,9% 12,75%
:
13
3
W
4004505000
5500
6000
6500
7000
WACC
11,75% 5412,25% 5012,75% 4713,25% 4413,75% 42
0000
0
0
0
11,75%12,2
2,7%
411,00 56
068,00 53
760,00 49
481,00 46
230,00 44
:
:
25%12,75%
C
3,2%
695,00 60
317,00 55
980,00 52
677,00 48
404,00 45
:
:
%13,25%
,
CAGR
3,7% 4
013,00 63
595,00 59
224,00 54
894,00 51
597,00 48
2%13,75%
4,2% 4
373,00 67
907,00 62
498,00 58
134,00 54
809,00 50
,7%
3,2%
3,7%
24
DCF
4,7%
784,00
261,00
805,00
402,00
045,00
%
4,2%4,7%
, 2012
24 , 2012
14
.:
P/E P/S EV/EBITDA 23,26 0,92 10,99 26,19 0,29 7,2X5RetailGroup 18,17 0,32 7,49 19,97 0,66 9,82 21,44 0,42 8,17() 7,8% 53% 25,7% 30% 40% 30%.,. 3034 WalmartStores 14,69 0,53 8,73Carrefour 12,74 0,14 5,90Tesco 11,23 0,38 6,68Target 13,88 0,54 7,71Safeway 7,83 0,08 4,62Sainsbury 12,66 0,30 6,84Metro 7,93 0,10 4,90 11,57 11,150,3 6,48() 50,3% 67,9% 41% 30% 40% 30%.,. 2018 Shinsegae 11,71 1,35 8,49BimBirlesik 36,06 1,25 24,67ShopriteHoldings 27,84 1,05 14,57Cencosud 25,99 0,77 14,48CpAll 38,27 2,09 27,52 27,97 1,3 17,95() 20,3% 41,5% 63,3% 30% 40% 30%.,. 6289
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24 , 2012
15
, ,. .,.
,.
,.
:DCF 70% 5224 3657: 10% 2018 202: 10% 6289 629
: 10% 3034 303,. 4791,. 4379,% 9,4%
: , , , . 9,4%, 4791.
24 , 2012
16
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,2012
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