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The BIG picture

Matthew Rivers

1 Wednesday 19 April 2023

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1. EU Regulation on climate change

2. Demand for biomass

3. Supply in UK

4. What can this mean ?

2 Wednesday 19 April 2023

R.E.D. is not a colour, or an

instruction to stop – but it is a challenge !

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The Renewable Energy Directive (2009)defines the ambition of the EU to tackle climate change.

• Global political lead in tackling climate change

• Secure 20% of final energy consumption across EU 27 from renewables by 2020

• Plus 20% reduction in energy use – efficiency

hence 20-20-20

• Use all forms of renewables - solar, wind, hydro and biomass.

• Delivery of national targets is matter for Member States

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To meet EU targets : biomass sources dominate ~1,600 TWh heat and power estimated to come from biomass plus ~ 328 TWh of biomass based biofuels demand

SOURCE: European Commission; Europower and heat

2020 Final Energy Consumption (FEC) from different renewables

328

341

1,642

2,657

2,985

Heat and powerfrom biomass

Total FEC from RED

Biofuels mandates

Heat and power

Power from hydro

70 555Power from wind

40Solar power

40Solar heat

13Geothermal powerand heat

TWh

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2010 all Member States published National Renewable Energy Action Plans.UK starts from low base 3% and targets 15% by 2020 – x3 electricity generation.

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Responding to this expectation are a number of large, planned biomass boilers for electricity.There are many more smaller scale boilers being installed and operating

7 Wednesday 19 April 2023

Can be 2 Million

tonnes per annum

demand

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UK technology intentions – for heating and cooling (Ktoe)

• Scale of increase for solid biomass is even more dramatic

• A proportion of biomass is described as ‘’in households’’ which is shown to increase from 10% in 2010 to 25% of total biomass used in 2020.

• District heating is expected to increase from 42 to 230 Ktoe

= substantial growing demand for wood for heating

• Likely to be fragmented, local and small scale units

8 Source: Table 11 of UK NREAP

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Then there is the biofuels mandate …..

• Where to now?

The Economist, 30th October 2010.

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Feed Stock Processes Products

The biofuels agenda requires 10% of liquid fuels to be from renewables by 2020There are several different concepts – just moving to pre-commercial phase with 2G which can also use wood as feedstock

1G: Sugar & Starch

1G: Oleic Acid

2G: Cellulose

Sugarcane

Sugarbeet

Corn Wheat

Rapeseed Palm Soya

Grass Bagasse Sludge Wood

1G

2G

1.5/2G

Hydro treatment

Gasification

Enzymatic/acid hydrolysis

Fischer-Tropsch

Fuel ethanol 10% gasoline blend E85 for FFV cars 30% less energy 0 .. 90% less CO2

Methyl ester diesel 7% diesel blend 10% less energy 30 .. 60% less CO2

Transesterification

Fermentation

Synthetic gasoline• 90% less CO2

Synthetic biodiesel high performance 50 .. 90% less CO2

1G

2G

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-

355–370

160–170 515–540

200– 260 720–800 340–420

~380

Current forest biomasssupply

• Mobilization• Net imports• Recovered

wood

Estimated supply

Estimated gap

Estimated demand

Non-traditional demand (energy)

Traditional demand• Paper• Wood products

Supply Demand

?

What about supply ? EU 20-20-20 impact on Europe widewoody biomass demand-supply balance in ‘conventional’ forest industry

Demand exceeds supply – there is only one way for price An opportunity for new businesses

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In UK all biomass domestic production is remarkably stable. As our living standards increase we import more – mainly food - most/all can be re-used for energy at some point.

12 Wednesday 19 April 2023

UK domestic biomass production and imports 1970 - 2008Data from Office for National Statistics

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Industrialroundwood10.03

Firewood/Wood Fuel780k

UK wood flow (M m³) in 2009-10 – rough numbers can sustain 12 M tonnes of forest harvest and 5 M recycled wood : when demand can be easily double that amount

10.03

ExportedSRW

Drop to 416 km3 2009

780 k

6.27 MT

PulpwoodWood based panelsFencing

7.75

3.76

2.7

Energy wood biomass

1.072

Sawn timber

By products

Recycled wood 5.4 to 5.52

Pellets

0.188

PulpwoodWood based panelsFencing

Logsfor wood products

3.76

6.27

1.072HeatElectricity2.444

RCP3.99 million –UK4.85 million Export1.81million potential

456k

Forest biomass

Total removal 10.81

Annual fellingpotential till 201111.53

Forest residuesSmall woodStumpsBranchesArb ArisingsSRC456k

0.46

By products

0.144

Forest energy potential ~2.75 *

*Forestry Commission2.

87 M

T

Sawn timber

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PO

LIT

ICS

EU202020

Subsidiesto changethe opera-

tionalenviron-

ment

Increasingcompetition

for woodand

higherprices

Estimation ofEU-27 woodybiomass gap

2020 200 Mm³

Globalizationof energy wood bio-

mass market

Role of waste and

agriculture as energysource

will increase

Competitionwith

the traditionalforest industrywill intensify

Of course outcomes are uncertain - but a clear opportunity is to use national resources to better effect : which also contributes to energy security.

Role of waste

and other burn-

able materialas energy

sourcewill increase

Political target adjustment (= failure ?)

Increase in wood supply in EU

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The element that I am spending my time on Key flows in shipped wood chips and biomass – recent history

Wood pellets (M tonne, 2010 [2009] )Pulp chips to Japan (BDMT)

Pulp chips to China (BDMT, 2010 [2009] )Chips to Europe (BDMT)

Vietnam,Thailand + Indonesia3.9 [ 2.0]0.7 [0.5]

0.9 [0.5]

Total Pacific basin chip 18 M bdmt p.a.

Total Europe chip 2 M bdmt p.a.

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What does this mean to us all ?

•Higher personal energy bills ! – because generators are steered to deliver Government obligations + recover all costs from the consumer

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Summary

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