-TRED Study Overview-

Director Jim LynchMontana Department of Transportation

January 28, 2006

Glasgow, MT

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Goals

Provide Information on the US 2/MT 16 TRED Study

Describe the Process

Identify Next Steps

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What is the “TRED” Study??

TransportationRegional DevelopmentEconomic

Study of

US 2 and MT 16 segments ofTheodore Roosevelt Expressway

in Montana

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TRED Study Purpose

Purpose: Identify economic, regulatory, or operational

changes that would result in traffic and

safety conditions that justify 4 lanes on the Theodore Roosevelt Expressway in Montana.

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What Area Does the Study Cover?

Study Corridor

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Relationship to Federal Environmental Review Requirements (NEPA)

TRED Study is Pre-NEPA ND US 2 EIS & MT US 2 Havre-Fort Belknap EIS were

NEPA

If TRED shows high probability of traffic to warrant a four lane

- then- Next step is NEPA -- using TRED results for

Federally required “purpose and need”

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Why this Corridor??

August 2005 Congressional Action named

MT 16 and US 2 east from Culbertson

as segments of Theodore Roosevelt Expressway “High Priority Corridor”

The entire corridor begins in Port of Laredo Texas and ends at the Port of Raymond, MT

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Why this Corridor??

The corridor provides regional connectivity and mobility with North Dakota and Saskatchewan

If expanding the corridor to a 4-lane is justified, the US 2 section of the Theodore Roosevelt Expressway may be the best place to start

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TRED Economic Analysis

GOAL: What is the probability future traffic (especially commercial) will be high enough to justify a 4-lane to meet safety and capacity needs?

STEPS in Economic Analysis

Study Existing condition Feb – June

1. Corridor Operations

2. Existing Economic Development Plans / Opportunities

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Steps in TRED Analysis

Next:

Build a 30-year traffic/freight model Apr – June Model will not be a “black box”

Model will be customized for MT and TRED study area

Load existing condition information

Calibrate model for two different alternatives

1. Modern 2-lane2. 4-lane

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Steps in TRED Analysis con’t

Sensitivity and Risk Analysis July and August

Identify and Test model against future scenarios

Determine probability of changes in traffic volumes based on scenarios

Input from Expert Panel on rural economics

Conclusions and Recommendations End of October

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Future Scenario & Sensitivity Tests

Will truck volumes increase if..... Crude oil stays high and exploration continues Grain moves from rail to truck Coal to fuel conversion technology is deployed Grain shipment is further consolidated and trucks

travel further on TRE A 4-lane is built across MT and ND?????

What is the probability of each scenario? The public will help define the scenarios

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Results of Sensitivity Tests

Incremental freight movements in study area ++ normal growth in traffic

++ Incremental freight increases on US 2 ++ Anticipated reduced safety and degradation

of Level of Service (LOS) ++ Risk-adjusted traffic & LOS =

Cumulative, potential need to add lanes

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What does this mean?

Example

Probability of diverting traffic from I 90

*Probability crude oil will

force continued exploration

*

Probability manufactured goods will cross at

Raymond if size/wgts change in MT

*WHAT IS THE

PROBABILITY A 4-LANE IS NEEDED FOR SAFETY

AND TRAFFIC

?Other =

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End Result is a Central Forecast and Probability of Achieving Alternate Scenarios

Scenario

Probability

Of Surpassing

Est. Traffic Vol. (1000s)

Percentage

Of Trucks

A 90% 2.36 36.5%

B 60% 3.10 42.0%

C 20% 4.20 47.5%

Etc… Etc… Etc… Etc…

Mean Expected

Outcome

? ? ?

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Why Focus on Traffic and Safety?

Potential economic development was not a factor in the selection of the preferred ND 4-lane alternative by FHWA. Safety and capacity issues related to military convoys were major factors in selection.

Traffic and safety issues can stand the test with permitting agencies.

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Why Focus on Commercial Traffic?

Speed differential between trucks and cars causes reduced level of service

Commercial trucks are weighted more heavily in level of service calculations

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Where will the Data Come From?

Existing regional economic conditions and opportunities

• Interviews with Ag. Groups, Commercial transport companies

• Scope:– Northern Great Plains of Eastern MT & Western NS/SD &

Southern Saskatchewan• Meetings with elected officials, commercial shippers,

general public• Questionnaires• Surveys• Known economic development plans• Sectors: oil/gas, grain production, rail, tourism,• other?

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Who Will Conduct the Study?

MDT lead and final decision-maker But- results will have to stand up in a NEPA

process where Federal agencies decide

Consultant firm (HDR) with engineers, planners, & economists with international experience in transportation and economic development

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Outreach

MDT has already reached out to ND, SD, and Saskatchewan

Kick-off Meeting First week in March Public Meeting Late June Stakeholder Workshop Early August

Goal: bring interested parties and experts together to

Assess findings and help analyze risk

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Outreach cont.

Economic Analysis Public Involvement

Open House Mid – August

2nd Stakeholder workshop on Conclusions and Recommendations Late September

2nd Public Open House Early October

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Next Steps

There will be a kick-off meeting in early March..

Location???

A web site regarding the study will soon be available …. Sign up and we will contact you.

Let us know if you want to be involved

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Contacts

MDT Dick Turner, Multimodal Bureau Chief

406 - 444 - 7289

HDR – Consultant TeamDon Galligan, HDR Boise Idaho

208 - 387 - 7058

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Questions??