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© 2015 Pyramid Research | OTT Video in Emerging Markets
January 2015
Report price: $3,495.00
SAMPLE PAGES: OTT Video in Emerging Markets: Monetization Strategies and Five-Year Revenue Opportunity
Daniele Tricarico| Senior Analyst
Malcolm Rogers| Analyst
Ozgur Aytar | Research Director
© 2015 Pyramid Research | OTT Video in Emerging Markets 2
‘OTT Video in Emerging Markets: Monetization Strategies and 5-Year Revenue Opportunity,’ a Research Report by Pyramid Research, analyzes the revenue potential of the OTT video services across emerging markets in Africa and the Middle East, Asia Pacific, Central and Eastern Europe, and Latin America, identifying and mapping key OTT video players from local telcos and payTV providers to pure-play OTTs, and best practices for differentiation and OTT video monetization. The report provides 5-year projections for SVoD and TVoD accounts and revenue by region and for key countries including Brazil, China, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. The analysis is built upon in-depth case studies of Netflix Latin America, Clarovideo, OSN Go, iRokoTV, Ivi Russia and LeTV.
The report is structured as follows:
• Section 1: OTT Video Market Trends and Monetization Strategies in Emerging Markets ̶ Challenges and opportunities for OTT service providers, positioning strategies for pay-TV operators and effective business models for OTT video provisioning.
• Section 2: SVoD and TVoD Demand and Revenue Outlook Across Emerging Markets ̶ Overview of forecast assumptions and covered countries and regions, review of SVoD accounts and paid OTT video revenue per region.
• Section 3: OTT Video Opportunity, Competitive Landscape and Keys to Success in Latin America; including region-level market overview and trends as well as deep-dive analysis of the region’s largest markets Brazil and Mexico and key players Netflix Latin America and Clarovideo.
• Section 4: OTT Video Opportunity, Competitive Landscape and Keys to Success in Africa and the Middle East; including region-level market overview and trends as well as deep-dive analysis of Saudi Arabia and South Africa and key players OSN Go and iRokoTV.
• Section 5: OTT Video Opportunity, Competitive Landscape and Keys to Success in Central and Eastern Europe; including region-level market overview and trends as well as deep-dive analysis of the region’s largest market Russia and a key player Ivi Russia.
• Section 6: OTT Video Opportunity, Competitive Landscape and Keys to Success in Emerging Asia Pacific; including region-level market overview and trends as well as deep-dive analysis of the region’s largest market China and a key player LeTV.
• Section 7: Key Takeaways and Strategic Recommendations for OTT Video Service Providers.
Summary
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• The growing investment in broadband infrastructure, with the improvement in network speed and performance, has opened up new opportunities to provide video over IP, not only in more advanced, developed economies but also in emerging markets.
• OTT video is mostly advertising-funded across emerging markets, but paid models are gaining traction within hybrid business models, whereby services offer free content to expand the user base, but at the same time position premium transactional video on demand (TVoD) and subscription video on demand (SVoD) content to generate additional revenue. In recent years, OTT business models entirely relying on advertising revenue streams have become difficult to sustain, given the high cost of content.
• Across emerging markets, we expect SVoD accounts will increase more than five-fold between 2014 and 2019; the proliferation in China of hybrid models combining AVoD and SVoD will be a major driver for growth. The cumulative paid OTT revenue from SVoD and TVoD services is projected to be as much as US$18.8bn for the 2015-2019 period, over 80% of which will come from the emerging markets in Asia Pacific and Latin America. Among all emerging markets examined, China, Russia, Brazil and Mexico offer the most scale and growth potential over the next five years.
• The opportunity to position SVoD and TVoD services successfully is stronger for local companies, provided that they have enough funding to invest in attractive content, and that they can deploy sustainable business models for paid content.
• In spite of the growing importance of mobile, with increasing 4G take up, the bulk of OTT video usage will remain over fixed broadband networks, with WiFi representing a key enabler technology for nomadic usage on secondary screens.
• In order to reinforce their market position, all pay-TV operators should consider aggregating third-party OTT services within the main service portfolio in addition to standalone OTT propositions.
Key findings
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The ‘OTT Video in Emerging Markets: Monetization Strategies and Five-Year Revenue Opportunity’ report comprises market sizing and demand analysis and trend analysis for OTT video services across emerging markets as well as detailed case studies. Insights and data are derived through a mix of desk-based secondary research, primary research as well as quantitative modeling for sizing market opportunity.
Pyramid’s methodology for OTT video market sizing and demand analysis combines secondary and primary research, with international benchmarking and quantitative modeling in order to present a complete picture of the socio-demographic, competitive and demand trends affecting the adoption of OTT video services across emerging markets. Primary research involves in-depth interviews with market players, and the secondary research effort includes obtaining relevant data and intelligence through publicly available sources, regulatory authority publications, trade associations, specialist databases and company financial reports, presentations and press releases.
Report methodology
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• The “OTT Video in Emerging Markets: Monetization Strategies and Five-Year Revenue Opportunity” report provides a comprehensive examination the nascent OTT video market opportunity to help executives make informed investment decisions, develop effective partnerships and optimize return on investment.
• This report provides a five-year forecast of SVoD accounts and SVoD and TVoD revenues by region and for key countries across emerging regions to enable executives effectively position their companies for emerging trends in demand for OTT video and growth opportunities.
• The report incorporates in-depth overview of key challenges and business model trends in the OTT video market across emerging markets and best practices for monetizing OTT video for stakeholders to develop competitive strategies as well as differentiation.
Reasons to buy
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Table of Contents
Table of contents 2
Table of exhibits 4
Executive summary 6
Section 1: OTT Video Market Trends and Monetization Strategies in Emerging Markets 10 Definitions: OTT video pricing models Definitions: OTT service providers Definitions: Content provision in the connected era Challenges and Opportunities for OTT Service Providers Content Procurement Piracy and Payments The Role of Legacy Broadband and the Mobile Opportunity Positioning Strategies for Pay-TV Operators Monetizing OTT Video
Section 2: SVoD and TVoD Demand and Revenue Outlook Across Emerging Markets 23 Key Forecast Assumptions Regions and Countries Covered Emerging Markets: SVoD Accounts by Region SVoD Penetration of Households Paid OTT Video Revenue Forecast by Region Comparative Review of Paid OTT Video Revenue and Pay-TV Revenue
Section 3: OTT Video Market Opportunity, Competitive Landscape and Keys to Success in Latin America 30 OTT Video Market Overview SVoD Accounts Forecast Paid OTT Video Revenue Forecast Key Market Trends Mexico: OTT Video Market Overview Mexico: Paid OTT Video Accounts and Revenue Forecast
Mexico: Key Market Trends Brazil: OTT Video Market Overview Paid OTT Video Accounts and Revenue Forecast Brazil: Key Market Trends Case studies: Netflix LATAM: Content and Partnerships and Business Outlook Clarovideo: Content and Partnerships and Business Outlook
Section 4: OTT Video Market Opportunity, Competitive Landscape and Keys to Success in Africa and the Middle East 47 OTT Video Market Overview SVoD Accounts Forecast Paid OTT Video Revenue Forecast Key Market Trends South Africa: OTT Video Market Overview Paid OTT Video Accounts and Revenue Forecast Key Market Trends Saudi Arabia: OTT Video Market Overview Paid OTT Video Accounts and Revenue Forecast Key Market Trends Case studies: OSN Go: Content and Partnerships and Business Outlook iRokoTV: Content and Partnerships and Business Outlook
Section 5: OTT Video Market Opportunity, Competitive Landscape and Keys to Success in Central and Eastern Europe 64 OTT Video Market Overview SVoD Accounts Forecast Paid OTT Video Revenue Forecast Key Market Trends South Africa: OTT Video Market Overview Paid OTT Video Accounts and Revenue Forecast Russia: OTT Video Market Overview
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Table of Contents
Russia: Key Market Trends
Case study:
IVI Russia: Content and partnerships and business outlook
Section 6: OTT Video Market Opportunity, Competitive Landscape and Keys to Success in Emerging Asia Pacific 75 OTT Video Market Overview SVoD Accounts Forecast Paid OTT Video Revenue Forecast Key Market Trends South Africa: OTT Video Market Overview Paid OTT Video Accounts and Revenue Forecast Key Market Trends China: OTT Video Market Overview Paid OTT Video Accounts and Revenue Forecast Key Market Trends Case study: LeTV: Content and Partnerships and Business Outlook Section 7: Key Takeaways and Strategic Recommendations for OTT Video Service Providers 86
Appendices 91 Companies mentioned Definitions Sources and related research About Pyramid Research
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Table of Exhibits
Ex 1: OTT Video Business Models 11
Ex 2: OTT Content Providers 12
Ex 3: OTT Content Provision for the Connected Household 13
Ex 4: OTT Video Challenges and Opportunities In Emerging Markets 14
Ex 5: OTT Video, Cost and Revenue Scenario (MGs) 15
Ex 6: Cost & Revenue Scenario (MGs Diluted, CPS) 15
Ex 7: Converging Content Propositions 16
Ex 8: Major Types of Streaming Content on Netflix 16
Ex 9: Home Video Content, Legal and Illegal in Emerging Markets 17
Ex 10: Broadband Penetration in Emerging Market Regions 18
Ex 11: Applications and Bandwidth Requirements 18
Ex 12: Key LTE Services for the Consumer Segment 19
Ex 13: LTE Subscribers by Region, 2013-2019 19
Ex 14: OTT/VoD Growing Usage, UK Benchmark 20
Ex 15: Telefonica, Unified Multi-Technology Global Video Delivery Platform (GVP) 20
Ex 16: OTT Strategic Options for Pay-TV Operators 21
Ex 17: SVoD Accounts by Region 26
Ex 18: SVoD Penetration of Households by Region 27
Ex 19: Paid OTT Video Revenue (SVoD and TVoD) By Region 28
Ex 20: Paid OTT Revenue (SVoD and TVoD) As a Percentage of Pay-TV Revenue 29
Ex 21: LATAM, Selected OTT Services 31
Ex 22: SVoD Growth in LATAM 32
Ex 23: OTT Revenue Opportunity in LATAM 33
Ex 24: Share of Paid OTT SVoD/TVoD Revenue, Brazil, Mexico and Rest of LATAM 34
Ex 25: Main OTT Video Service Providers in Mexico 35
Ex 26: Share of Paid OTT by Accounts 35
Ex 27: Mexico Paid OTT Accounts 36
Ex 28: Mexico OTT Revenue Opportunity 36
Ex 29: Cinepolis and Vudu Prepaid Cards in Mexico 37
Ex 30: Main OTT Video Service Providers in Brazil 38
Ex 31: Broadband Video Opportunity in Brazil 38
Ex 32: Brazil Paid OTT Accounts 39
Ex 33: Brazil OTT Revenue Opportunity 39
Ex 34: 4G Opportunity in Brazil 40
Ex 35: Netflix SVoD Service Pricing Across Markets, December 2014 41
Ex 36: Netflix Marketing Spend As % of Revenue 41
Ex 37: Netflix Partnership with Antel Uruguay 42
Ex 38: Netflix Prepaid Card in the US 42
Ex 39: Netflix Subscribers by Region 2014 43
Ex 40: Broadband Penetration of Households, 2013-2019 43
Ex 41: Clarovideo, Monthly Subscription Pricing 44
Ex 42: Clarovideo Footprint, December 2014 44
Ex 43: Clarovideo Smart TV Advertising 45
Ex 44: Clarovideo Colombia Discount Offer 45
Ex 45: Clarovideo Telmex Promotion, 2012 46
Ex 46: AME, Selected OTT/SVoDs 48
Ex 47: SVoD Growth in AME 49
Ex 48: OTT Revenue Opportunity in AME 50
Ex 49: AME OTT Market Potential, 2014 & 2019 51
Ex 50: South Africa OTT Video Service Providers 52
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Table of Exhibits
Ex 51: South Africa Paid OTT Accounts 53
Ex 52: South Africa OTT Revenue Opportunity 53
Ex 53: Fixed and Mobile Broadband Opportunity In South Africa
Ex 54: Saudi Arabia OTT Video Service Providers 55
Ex 55: Saudi Arabia Paid OTT Accounts 56
Ex 56: Saudi Arabia OTT Revenue Opportunity 56
Ex 57: Piracy Workarounds by Expat Segments 57
Ex 58: Wherever TV Channel Line Up 57
Ex 59: OSN Go by OSN Market, 2014 58
Ex 60: Promotional Material, OSN Go Partnership with Vodafone Qatar 4G 59
Ex 61: AME Smartphone Sales, 2014-2019 60
Ex 62: Film Production by Content Hub In 2013 61
Ex 63: iRokoTV Pricing (US$) 61
Ex 64: Nollywood Content on iRokoTV 62
Ex 65: Nigeria Android Smartphone Sales, 2014-2019 63
Ex 66: CEE, Selected OTTs 65
Ex 67: SVoD Growth in CEE 66
Ex 68: OTT Revenue Opportunity in CEE 67
Ex 69: Fiber Broadband in CEE 68
Ex 70: Fixed Broadband Download Speed, CEE Global Rankings 68
Ex 71: Russia OTT Video Service Providers 69
Ex 72: 2014 Share of Registered OTT Accounts 69
Ex 73: Russia Paid OTT Accounts 70
Ex 74: Russia OTT Revenue Opportunity 70
Ex 75: ARPU of Paid OTT Services 71
Ex 76: The OTT/Telco Partnership Value 71
Ex 77: Ivi Unique Monthly Viewers by Platform 72
Ex 78: Ivi TVoD Vs SVoD Pricing 72
Ex 79: Ivi’s Main Content Partners 73
Ex 80: Smartphone Shipments in Russia, 2010-2014 74
Ex 81: Monthly Views on Non-Pc Devices, 2011-2013 74
Ex 82: Emerging APAC, Selected OTT/SVoDs 76
Ex 83: SVoD Growth in Emerging APAC 77
Ex 84: OTT Revenue Opportunity in Emerging APAC 78
Ex 85: LTE in Emerging APAC 79
Ex 86: China, Content Partnerships of Top 5 OTT Video Service Providers 80
Ex 87: China Paid OTT Accounts 81
Ex 88: China OTT Revenue Opportunity 81
Ex 89: Challenges and Opportunities for Paid OTT Video in China 82
Ex 90: LeTV Subscription Pricing 83
Ex 91: Hours of Video Viewed, Jul-Aug 2014 83
Ex 92: NBA on LeTV 84
Ex 93: LeTV SmarTV 84
Ex 94: LeTV Profit & Revenue, 2012-2013 85
Ex 95: LeTV Month-End Stock Price, 2014
© 2015 Pyramid Research | OTT Video in Emerging Markets 10
Source: Pyramid Research
Challenges and Opportunities for OTT Service Providers in Emerging Markets
There are plenty of opportunities in the OTT video space for emerging market providers, but success will depend primarily on the right mix of content and user experience.
The strength of the OTT video opportunity varies across markets depending on many factors, such as broadband networks, online and offline windowing systems, regulatory frameworks and other local factors, such as the extent of piracy and credit card penetration. However, an attractive and relevant content offer is a prerequisite to any successful paid video service, either delivered via established pay-TV platforms or OTT: The potential to derive value from locally relevant VoD , as well as from linear content, alongside the potential to provide superior user experience across multiple devices, are the critical factors to the success of OTT video.
Given the abundance of free content on the Internet, the monetization of OTT video, either via subscription or transactional models, is a major challenge across all markets. It is an even greater challenge in emerging markets where consumers’ disposable income for entertainment services is lower.
Challenges Opportunities
Content • Cost of content • Access to content • Windowing systems
• Original content • Linear content and catch up TV • Personalization, user experience
Networks • Legacy broadband networks • Fiber broadband (FTTH/B) • 4G LTE • Quality of experience
Market
• Low awareness of services among users • Lack of familiarity with service benefits • Piracy • Credit card penetration
• Presence of international /regional providers • Offline payments (prepaid cards) and online payments (operator billing) • Penetration of connected devices (tablets, smartphones, smart TVs)
EXHIBIT 1: OTT VIDEO CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN EMERGING MARKETS
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Source: Ofcom
Positioning Strategies for Pay-TV Operators: The Need for OTT Engagement
Most pay-TV operators see OTT investment as inevitable given the trend toward moving services to the cloud and the open Internet and the customer expectation to access content on any connected device. Evidence from developed markets shows that video consumption on devices other than TV sets is growing fast. At the same time, consumer habits are rapidly shifting, with the youth segment increasingly consuming more on demand content than linear TV.
Rather than a competitive threat that can cannibalize pay-TV businesses, OTT is emerging as an alternative video delivery platform that allows pay-TV operators to penetrate into new segments (lower income households/ non-pay-TV households) and to deploy lighter and more flexible business models for video services.
To meet the demand for multiple viewing platforms, and target “on-net” as well as “off-net” customers, pay-TV operators are increasingly complementing their pay-TV and TV Everywhere services for existing subscribers with pure OTT services open to all broadband users. OTT video has therefore become integral to the strategy of pay-TV operators and for telcos offering IPTV services. Telefonica, for example, has created a next-generation video platform, the Global Video Platform (GVP), which allows subscribers to access video content either through premium services such as managed IPTV, through hybrid DTH and cable STBs or through open OTT networks.
For pay-TV operators, the OTT impact at least in revenue terms is so far limited, but a futureproofed media strategy will require OTT engagement beyond second screen/TV Everywhere.
PREMIUM PAY-TV (IPTV)
Best broadband brings best TV experience
HYBRID TV (DTH/CATV) Satellite TV meets the
Internet
OTT (PLAY) Telefonica's
Service for the pure OTT arena
GVP
EXHIBIT 12: TELEFONICA, UNIFIED MULTI-TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL VIDEO DELIVERY PLATFORM (GVP)
EXHIBIT 11: OTT/VOD GROWING USAGE, UK BENCHMARK
38% of 18-34 years old state they already watch more on-
demand than linear TV
17.5% of 18-34 years old are likely to subscribe to either Netflix or Lovefilm (Amazon) in the near
future
The share of VoD requests coming from tablets increased from 3% to 12% between 2011 and 2012. Over half of tablet owners use their device for
watching AV content.
Source: Telefonica
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Black indicates countries/regions excluded from the analysis. Red and green capture regions covered. Green indicates countries examined in detail. *For this report, Turkey and Israel have not been included in AME coverage. ** Emerging countries in APAC exclude Australia, Brunei, Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.
Regions and Countries Covered
The report covers the emerging markets across Latin America (LATAM), Africa and the Middle East* (AME); Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and Asia Pacific (APAC)**. In-depth country level analysis and forecast is provided for the following countries:
Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Russia and China.
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Source: Pyramid Research
LATAM: Key Market Trends
EXHIBIT 21: SHARE OF PAID OTT SVOD/TVOD REVENUE, BRAZIL, MEXICO AND REST OF LATAM
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Brazil Mexico Rest of LatAm
Mexico and Brazil combined accounted for 53% of LATAM OTT SVoD/TVoD video revenue in 2014, in line with their share of regional pay-TV revenue (52%). However, differently from pay-TV where Brazil is by far the largest market in LATAM generating almost twice the revenue of Mexico, in OTT video, Mexico leads the regional market with a 32% revenue share.
The second largest broadband market in the region and the closest to the U.S., Mexico is ahead of the curve in LATAM in OTT video. In the next two years, as OTT video gains traction in Brazil and in the rest of the region, primarily in Colombia, Argentina and Chile, in spite of sustained OTT growth, Mexico will lose its leading position. We expect Brazil to experience stronger growth and surpass Mexico in revenue terms in 2016, as OTT video will complement traditional pay-TV platforms, exploiting unaddressed demand for video services.
For the later part of the forecast (2017-2019), we expect further traction coming from markets beyond Mexico and Brazil (rest of region), especially from sizeable markets, such as Venezuela and Peru, which have suffered from comparatively lower broadband penetration and poorer network performance to date.
Brazil will surpass Mexico to become the largest OTT video market in 2016, and the contribution of the rest of the countries in the region will increase as the market beyond the two largest countries picks up.
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Companies Mentioned
20th Century Fox
7-eleven
Akamai
Al Jazeera
Algar Telecom
Alibaba Group
Amazon
AMC
America Movil
Antel
Apple
Baidu
BBC
beIN
BigFlix
BoxTV
Caracol
CBS
Changhong
Channel One
China Mobile
Cinepolis
Cisco
CME
CyberSource
Cyfrowy Polsat
Digital Media
Dish
Disney
Dom.ru
Eros International
First Media
Fox
Foxconn
Globo
Grupo Carso
GVT
Haier
Icflix
Iqiyi
iRokoTV
Ivi
Konka
Ledafilms
LeTV
LG
Maadu
Maxcom
Maxis
MBC.net
Microsoft
Miramax
M-Net
Mobility
Mosfilm
MTG
MTN
MTV
Multichoice
Net
Netflix
NetIndex
Oi
Okko
Orange
OSN
Paramount
Phillips
Rostelecom
Rotana
Samsung
Skrill
Sky
Sntech
Sohu
Sony
Spuul
STC
Tecnocom
Telefonica
Televisa
Telkom
Tencent
Time Media Group
TRUE
TVE
Tvigle
Universal
Vivo
Vodafone
VTR
Walmart
World Bank
Xiaomi
Yota
Youku
Youtube
Zoomby
© 2015 Pyramid Research | OTT Video in Emerging Markets 15
Sources and Related Research
OTT Video Market Attractiveness Index: Worldwide Country Rankings, Market Drivers and Positioning Strategies In order to assess the strength of the OTT video opportunity across 60+ countries worldwide, Pyramid Research has developed the proprietary OTT Video Market Attractiveness Index. The Report includes a discussion of the methodology behind the OTT Video Market Attractiveness Index, a strategic analysis of the results of the Index, a closer look at the results pertaining to emerging markets, and a section listing the key takeaways of the Index findings, including issues such as regulatory frameworks, market maturity, the role of superfast broadband and the revenue opportunity.
Fixed Communications Forecast
Forecasts updated quarterly The Fixed Communications Forecast quantifies fixed voice, broadband by technology and IPTV adoption and service revenue trends, at the residential, corporate and total market levels. It tracks demand and projects future growth for 101 countries worldwide and is available at the country, regional and global levels.
Pay-TV Forecast
Forecasts updated bi-annually (twice a year) The Pay-TV Forecasts are designed to provide competitive intelligence on the pay-TV and mobile TV dynamics for 60 countries as well as regionally and globally. They track demand patterns for free and pay-TV services over terrestrial, satellite and mobile platforms worldwide, providing market share information at both the technology and operator levels as well as five-year adoption and revenue projections.
LTE Business Models: Best Practices in Network Deployment, Positioning and Service Pricing Built around five detailed country case studies of markets where LTE networks have been launched, this Research Report examines LTE spectrum allocation and availability, network deployment considerations, product and pricing strategies and LTE adoption trends as well as drivers for market growth. Highlighting what works and what doesn't - based on the experience of commercial operators - this report uncovers the pain points and the keys to success for LTE service providers worldwide.
CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
© 2014 Pyramid Research. All rights reserved. No material contained in this report may be reproduced in whole or in part without the prior written permission of the publisher. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed in the report should be construed as a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but neither its completeness nor accuracy can be guaranteed. Opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of the available information and are subject to change.
© 2015 Pyramid Research | OTT Video in Emerging Markets 16
About Pyramid Research
ADVISING LEADERS IN THE GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRIES ON EMERGING MARKETS AND SERVICES OPPORTUNITIES
Pyramid Research (www.pyramidresearch.com) offers practical solutions to the complex demands our clients face in the global communications industry. Its analysis is uniquely positioned at the intersection of emerging markets, emerging technologies and emerging business models, powered by the bottom-up methodology of our market Forecasts for more than 100 countries — a distinction that has remained unmatched for more than 25 years.
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Our highly structured analysis closely examines the performance, technology trends, macroeconomic and regulatory environment, of service providers and equipment vendors in each of the more than 100 countries we cover. Using a bottom-up approach, we size market demand across services and countries, and conduct end-user surveys to validate adoption trends and anticipate shifts in demand. Our commitment to intensive, direct interviewing of regulatory authorities, service providers and manufacturers — complemented with end-user data — ensures the most reliable portrait of every market we examine.
© 2015 Pyramid Research | OTT Video in Emerging Markets
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