| los alamos national laboratory | may 2013 | unclassified | 1 operated by los alamos national...
TRANSCRIPT
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 1
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
MaRIE 1.0:Matter Radiation Interactions in Extremes 1.0Mary Hockaday6 June 20132013 Mission Committee talk
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 2
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
We have four major themes for today’s discussions
Introduce myself
Reframing of the mission
need for MaRIE 1.0
Provide a status of our path
to CD-0
Obtain feedback on approach
We are modifying our framing of our mission need based on feed back from the Mission Committee. Let’s see
how it’s coming along.
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 3
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
At the contract transition the need for Los Alamos National Laboratory to have a signature facility was reaffirmed
LANSCE-generated Proton beam will be coupled
directly into MaRIE
LANSCE provides experience in Accelerators, User
Facilities, and Material Science
Historically LANSCE hasplayed a role.
MaRIE builds on LANSCE’s success.
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 4
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
MaRIE 1.0 is the most NW-relevant subset (~$1B) of MaRIE.
Unique very hard x-ray XFEL
Unique simultaneous photon-proton imaging measurements
MPDH: Multi-Probe Diagnostic Hall
Dynamic experiments utilizing premier x-ray scattering capability at high energy and high repetition frequency with simultaneous charged particle dynamic imaging
M4: Making, Measuring & Modeling Materials Facility State of the art resource for materials synthesis and control, with national security infrastructure
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 5
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
We have been working towards our vision of
MaRIE since contract transition.
(2009)
(2010)
(2012)
Developing theScience Case
Facility Definition
Pre-conceptual Proposal
LANS Contract Transition
Concept Definition/Internal Competition
MaRIE selection
(2006-2008)
Pre
-MaR
IE
LANS BUSINESS-SENSITIVE INFORMATION
(2013)
Path to CD-0
We are focusing on the NNSA customer
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 6
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
The NNSA New Facilities call was an opportunity to address decadal ST&E facility needs for Stewardship
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 7
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
As we look to the future three things are certain
• The next and succeeding generations of stewards will need to make decisions
• The nation, its allies and its adversaries must have confidence in those decisions
• Our stewards will use the best computation, simulation and experimental toos we have to inform those decisions.
“It’s a matter of production and capability of doing it. As you know, ah, you go to war with the army you have—not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.” –
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, 2004
AnnualAssessment
SignificantFinding
Investigations
Life ExtensionPrograms
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 8
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Our stewards will be facing a different stockpile from today’s- one that was built and tested in the era of underground testing.
• There will be changes in materials long term• Aging changes materials• Replacement materials may not be able to be made exactly the same
way• Explicit decisions to change materials for manufacturability or
sustainability reasons• Explicit decisions to change materials for performance gains.
• Risk increases as weapons age, MaRIE can help mitigate those risks.
MaRIE offers the capability to study and better understand how these changes will affect the performance of the
weapons.
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 9
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Predictive capability for the NEP is not yet sufficient to protect against irrational confidence
We have moved to how do we best test our stewards!!!
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 10
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
MaRIE 1.0 adds to the tool set our stewards will need to improve confidence in their decisions
Materials Capability Review 2013
Life
Ext
en
sio
n
Pro
gra
ms
Sig
nific
ant
Fin
ding
In
vest
igat
ions
An
nu
al
Ass
ess
me
nt
W76-1 and other systems until retiredW76-1 and other systems until retired
W88 Alt 370W88 Alt 370
B61-12B61-12
Cruise MissileCruise Missile
IW-1IW-1
IW-2IW-2
IW-3IW-3
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 11
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
We asked ourselves, “What would we need to achieve a predictive, phase and process-aware understanding of materials performanceto support future stockpile decisions?”
Slide 11
Equation of State
Strength/Plasticity
Damage/Failure
Phase-aware EOS
Multi-ScaleStrengthModels
Multi-ModeDamage
Analytical Isotropic Homogeneous
Phase-aware integrated models
Manufacturing/synthesis
Aging phenomena
Interfaces/compatibility
Process -aware integrated models
We are here
There is a symbiotic relationship between MaRIE and advanced computational power to achieve self consistent modeling
There is a symbiotic relationship between MaRIE and advanced computational power to achieve self consistent modeling
Process Aware ManufacturingDynamic Materials Performance
We are here
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 12
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
We have always used multiple facilities to acquire data at the appropriate time and length scales required to establish predictive capability
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 13
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
We take the evolution of mix and burn to provide an example of how integrating across scales and facilities is powerful
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 14
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
An example to consider is the validation of the mix model
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 15
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Application to model though preliminary, is showing great promise
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 16
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
We developed a set of MaRIE 1.0 “First Experiments” that span the mission need AND set functional requirements for the facility
Slide 16
Materials Capability Review 2013
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 17
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Dead zones in IHE; present simulation method
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 18
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Shock Front
Flyer velocity
Shock Front
0 s 0.6 s 1.2 s
42-keV XFEL allows multigranular sample penetration and multipulse dynamics without significant sample perturbation.
Through the Multi-Probe Diagnostic Hall, MaRIE 1.0 provides a unique capability for simultaneous, multi-probe measurements of in situ transient phenomena in relevant dynamic extremes
Slide 18
Pu; Al
elastic
total
Proton microscopy provides absolute density (~1%) & velocities through sample volume.
MPDH provides a broad suite of loading conditions to the user.
MaR
IE 1
.0
First Experiments
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 19
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Multiple processes are required to produce well characterized Pu and we continue to be reminded about challenges associated with Pu
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 20
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
The challenge is to observe the dynamic microstructure and phase evolution down to the sub-granular level
Example: Dynamic Performance of Plutonium and Surrogate Metals and Alloys
The first experiment: Multiple, simultaneous dynamic in situ diagnostics with resolution at the scale of nucleation sites (< 1 mm; ps – ns)
Sub-mm resolution100’s – 1000’s mm samples
Sub-ns resolution, ~30 frames in1 ms duration
Slide 20
See Garry’s Maskaly’s talk on why this could matter
Marie allows us to break the problem apart.Marie allows us to break the problem apart.
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 21
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Lack of accurate predictive processing models leads to production inefficiency
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 22
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Developing a coupled experimental and modeling approach to process-aware manufacturing based on solidification phenomena
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 23
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Developing a coupled experimental and modeling approach to process-aware manufacturing based on solidification phenomena
Slide 23
Mission: Cost efficient near-net shape components with
controlled performance. The model: New solidification models that incorporate fluid flow, nucleation and growth of microstructure
ProtonsDensity/Fluid Flow Radiography
Diffraction - structure
The goal: Advanced casting models with elemental and microstructure evolution using dynamic 3-D imaging of density, structure, temperature and elemental composition
Hard X-rays
The First Experiment:Complete 3-D reconstruction coupled to :Structure and elemental mapping during processing at M4In situ density/structure at MPDH
Solidification fronts 0.01 to 10 mm/msImages from every 100 ns to 10’s of msFOV 100 mm to see multiple grains Resolution of 500 nm for precipitates0.1 – 5 mm penetrationTemperature up to 2200 oCHeating/Cooling rates of 0.01 - 105 oC/sec
First Experiment: Controlled Solidification and Phase Transformations
Tunable X-rays Chemical composition
Long term goal is product based specifications
Team includes: Franz Freibert, Dave Teter, Robert Hackenberg, …
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 24
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
“First Experiments” define mission-driven functional requirements and reveal facility performance gaps
Materials Capability Review 2013
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 25
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
“First Campaigns” are examples of how MaRIE 1.0 could help our Stockpile Stewards address today’s challenges if it were available today
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 26
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
New Facilities Process Outcome:“…we would expect to move MaRIE to CD-0 within 6 months”
• “MaRIE was, by far, judged to be the most mature and well-motivated proposed facility”
• “The cost estimate, schedule estimate, and technical feasibility of MaRIE are assessed to be at a level of fidelity beyond what is needed at this stage in the planning process”
• “The technical capabilities provided by MaRIE could substantially advance our ability to maintain the stockpile, but only if utilized within the appropriate framework.”
• “Acceptance of MaRIE for CD-0 will require a letter from the directors of LANL and LLNL that describes your commitment and plan for advancing the process and science of certification to make use of MaRIE.”
Slide 26
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 27
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Changes in DOE and NNSA Leadership have impacted our path forward
The Directors’ letter continues to be worked Optimal timing and delivery path is uncertain Soliciting input from key stakeholders FYNSP Budget Builds most likely will not wait for new
leadership to be in place Informal funding profile has been provided – FY20
construction start with peak no greater than 200 M a/year over 8 years – will entertain FY19 construction start
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 28
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
SFR / 1st Camp. Workshops
MNS Approved!
NNSA / APM ICR Review
Review of Scope, Schedule, Cost, Risks, & CD-0 package [BOG Endorsed]
Selden Review of Mission Need and Program Requirements
Respond / Revise
Respond / Revise
Update FFR’s
Draft Letter
Final Letter / NNSA Conc.
Selden Review ofLLNL and LANL Letter
Draft CDEP
PSP ReviewMar 2013
Draft MNS
Draft PRD
Update Cost, Schedule, Risks, & Ref. Design
Notional CD-0 Schedule: Logic has been established; pacing is under discussion
Dec. 2012
Update R&D Plan
Facility Definition Review (FFR’s, CDEP, and R&D)
Slide 28
Deeney: “12/13”Our goal is to position MaRIE 1.0
for CD-0 in CY 13 AND for a funding line in FY15 FYNSP request
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 29
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
We are grappling with what should our Acquisition Strategy be given that:
• NNSA Management uncertainty
• NNSA has requested a CD0 – initial cost
range
• Construction start no sooner than FY19
• Technical Risk exists in the XFEL and the
detectors -- ~85M R&D required to mitigate
• NMSSUP experience has left us cautious
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 30
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Los Alamos is the right place for MaRIE
♦ Our Stewards will utilize MaRIE to meet our mission challenges of the future
♦ We have the expertise in weapons mission materials (Pu, HE,…) in a classified environment
♦ LANSCE is a National User Facility - We have experience optimizing the co-existence of
basic and classified research - Provides ~$1B infrastructure site credit towards MaRIE - We have proven track record in running large accelerator based facilities♦ People are key to our future, and MaRIE is key to
attracting and retaining the next generation of Stewards to Los Alamos
“We have won the competition”We need your help to make MaRIE a reality!
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 31
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
MaRIE 1.0 will enable us to observe and ultimately control how mesoscale materials properties affect weapons performance
A mission need exists for a facility focused on predicting and controlling materials in extreme environments, exploiting in situ transient measurements on real materials in relevant dynamic extremes to address nuclear weapons challenges in qualification and certification.
Achieving controlled functionality at the mesoscale through co-design is the frontier of materials research.
MaRIE 1.0 meets this need with a robust preconceptual reference design that is grounded in community-defined mission and scientific requirements.
MaRIE provides a unique tool set for our future Stewards. Definitely a “Killer Capability.”
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 32
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
MaRIE 1.0 science and mission is already attracting the best and the brightest
Amy ClarkeMST
Cindy BolmeWX
Richard Sandberg
MPA
Kyle RamosWX
MaR
IE
Gen
era
tion
Garry MaskalyXTD
MaR
IE
Gen
era
tion
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 33
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
Backup
Materials Capability Review 2013
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 34
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
MaRIE External Advisory Board Mission Need Subcommittee
Bob Selden, Chair Mike Anastasio Charlie Curtis Roger Falcone Sig Hecker Rus Hemley John Immele Don Kerr Steve Koonin Cherry Murray
The task of this Subcommittee is to provide me advice, feedback, and advocacy as we lay the groundwork for a communication strategy with all possible stakeholders that articulates
• A joint (LANL-LLNL) vision for how we qualify components and certify the performance of the future stockpile using the scientific tools and data we can obtain as we anticipate a smaller and different stockpile that is further removed from underground test;
• The mission need for the MaRIE CD-0 package including the assurance that mission need has been translated to appropriate and cost-effective facility requirements; and,
• A compelling strategy for extending the lifetime and sustaining the science base of the stockpile that is appreciated and supported by the broader
community and our colleagues at the Pentagon.
| Los Alamos National Laboratory |
May 2013 | UNCLASSIFIED | 35
Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA
UNCLASSIFIED
MaRIE 1.0 adds to the tool set our stewards will need to improve confidence in their decisions
Materials Capability Review 2013
Life
Ext
en
sio
n
Pro
gra
ms
Sig
nific
ant
Fin
ding
In
vest
igat
ions
An
nu
al
Ass
ess
me
nt
W76-1 and other systems until retiredW76-1 and other systems until retired
W88 Alt 370W88 Alt 370
B61-12B61-12
Cruise MissileCruise Missile
IW-1IW-1
IW-2IW-2
IW-3IW-3