Ground operations Air Operations Negotiations

Current Situation

Israeli Objectives

Political Military

Demonstrate Israel will

Restore quiet

Demilitarize Gaza

Minimize civilian casualities

• Reduce Hamas miliary capabilities:esp. Rockets, tunnels

• Limit casualities/damage inside Israel

Hamas Objectives

Political Military

• Break Isolation/siege

• Free prisoners

• Demonstrate strength/resolve

• Re-establish resistence credentials

Inflict damage on Israel

Miantain rocket firing

Present robust defense agaisnt Israel ground incursion

v Preserve forces

Strategy: Israel

Use air and ground power to compel Hamas to accept quiet

Damage Palestinian military forces and infrastructure with intense air and limites ground operations

Conduct casualty sensitive operations

Conduct media campaign to justify opeartions and limit damge from civilian casualities.

Strategy: Hamas

Conduct sustained rocket firing into the depth of Israel

Disrupt Israel civilian life/economy, inflict damage

Achieve « image of victory »: attack on Israel twon, kill large number of soldiers, hostage taking

Prevent any deep Israeli penetration of Gaza on the ground

Attrite Israeli ground forces

Conduct media campaign to paint Israel as agressor, limit Israeli military activity, end war with favorable terms.

The Rocket/Air War (1)

Rocket forces and operations

Forces Launch Operations Qassam Brigades

PIJ

PRC

Joint operations(Qassam/PIJ)

Sustained fire: 1500 plus rkts, avg about 120 rockets per day

Population center

Deep target

Some military targets, esp close to Gaza border

The Rocket/Air War (2)

Rockets vs Iron DomeIron Dome capabilities: engage threat rockets only

Iron Dome batteries: 10 deployes(3 during conflict)

Intercepts: 300(in first ten days

Accuracy/eefectiveness: claimed 86% of threat rockets

The Rocket/Air War (3)

Israeli air CampaignAir vs the rocket system: production, movement, storage, launchers, launch units.

Air vs the Hamas infrastructure: leadership, C2, weapons storage, combat forces, tunnels

Itotal strikes: 2037 (first 10 days)

Avg per day: 200 plus

The Ground War

Engineering warfareTunnels: 60 plus, infiltration, storage, smuggling, communicationsIEDs: one of Hamas most important defensive measures

Tank vs anti-tank

Close combat: direct fire engagements between troop

Infiltration: into Israel(5 attemps(), inside Gaza, sig Israeli KI

Fire Support: used by both side

Suicide actions: a few

The Media War(1): Israel

Themes Operations

It’s a « terrorist » attack on Israeli civilians

Criticism of operations not justifie

Israel military operations are effective

Israel has many supporters

Info on Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians: rockets, infiltration

Info on « precision » ops, media on Hamas use of civilians as human shields

Release of info on Isreali Strike results: targets hit, damage, casualities

Media releases on demonstrations, statements of support for Israel

The Media War(2): Hamas

Themes Operations

Israel aggression against civilians

Hamas military operations are succeeding

Israeli military operations are failing

The whole world support Hams

Use of Hamas and other media to show civilian casualties/manipulation of social media

Claims of successful opeartions on Hamas and other Palestinian media

Media coverage of CONTINUING Hams military ops, attention to Israeli military casualties

Media coverage of anti-Israeli/pro-Hamas demonstrations

Lessons Learned: Israel

Air power not enough against hardened enemy: Physical and mental

Iron Dome does not completly solve the rocket problem

Significant civilian casualities will occur regardless of the measures taken

Incrementalism in ground ops gives the enemy an advantage

Continuing challenge of urban combat

Tunnels wil be a venue of combat

Don’t neglect the ground forces

Lessons Learned: Hamas

In a crisis, initiate the fighting

Israel is heavily constrained by the civilian population in Gaza

Srocket firing/mil ops can continue even under intense air attack

Media war is crucial

Validation of Hamas theory of combat

Game Changers

Iron Dome: Negating hamas capabilities to cause casualities/damage inside Israel

Hamas close combat capabilities: a significant shock with effects

Tunnels System: creating strategic effectsProtection of military infrastructure/forces against IDFCross border penetration for strategic purposes

Near Term Developments

Continued negotiations:Humanitarian ceasefireCeasefire to negotiate arrangementComprehensive arrangement

Continued military operations. Israel and Hamas

Expanded military operations: Israel?