________________________________________________________ gbi cost analysis sae advances in aviation...

SAE Advances in Aviation Safety

________________________________________________________GBI Cost Analysis

April 11th, 2000SAE Advances in Aviation Safety

Conference and Exposition

The Cost of Implementing GroundBased Fuel Tank Inerting in the

Commercial Fleet



Outline• Background / Definition• Ground Rules / Methods• Quantify Nitrogen Volume Requirements• Non-Recurring Costs• Recurring Costs• Industry Extrapolation• Conclusions and Recommendation



Background• Propose to Improve Level of Fuel Tank Safety in the Fleet• Fuel Tank Inerting is Proven Effective and Existing

Nitrogen Generation Technology is Mature• ARAC Stated GBI was Most Cost Effective Method to

Reduce Exposure to Flammable Fuel Tank Scenarios (Approximately 4 Billion Dollars)

• Get Industry Involvement to More Accurately Determine Cost of Gas(MEDAL) and Airport Modification. (ATL, Delta and ACY, SJTA)



Definition of GBI• GBI Uses Ground Based Equipment to Inert AC Fuel

Tanks Prior to Flight with Some Combination of Ullage Washing and Fuel Scrubbing– Ullage Washing is Displacing Most of the Air in the Fuel Tank

Ullage with Nitrogen or NEA– Fuel Scrubbing is a Process by Which most of the Oxygen

Dissolved in Fuel is Replaced with Nitrogen



Ground Rules• Cost to Implement in 3 Years and Inert for 10 Years• Consider only Transport Category Airplanes Carrying Greater

than 19 Passengers• System Must be Able to Inert Aircraft in Normal Turn-Around

Time• Determine all Recurring and Nonrecurring Costs to Airports

and Operators but Do Not Consider the Cost of Aircraft Modifications

• Calculate the Cost of Inerting All Relevant Depatures and HCWT Departures Only, Do Not Consider the Cost of Fuel Scrubbing HCWT Only



Methods• Examine Departure and Refueling Data for Sample Airports to

Determine the Volume of Nitrogen Required• Size System(s) and Determine Ullage Washing and Fuel Scrubbing

Architecture for Study Airports• Determine Recurring Nitrogen Volume Cost, Annual Labor and

Maintenance Cost• Determine Nonrecurring Cost of Engineering/Architecture, System

Installation, Ancillary Equipment and Facility Modification for the Study Airports

• Use Nonrecurring Costs, and Recurring Costs Based on Departure Averages to Determine Total Industry Cost (2000 Dollars)



Approximate Nitrogen Requirements• Determine Average Amount of Fuel Serviced for Study Airport

Departures on a Busy Day/Hour for 3 Categories of Aircraft (Wide-Body, Single Aisle, and Commuter)

• Determine Average Amount of Ullage Remaining for Study Airports Departures on a Busy Day/ Hour for Same 3 Categories of Aircraft

• Determine Nitrogen Required Based on Fuel Serviced and Ullage Remaining Averages

• Apply Averages and Traffic Forecasts to Predicted ATL and ACY Departures for 2012 Busy Day/Hour Extrapolation to Determine the Amount of Nitrogen Required for Study Airports



Basic Architecture• Ullage Washing

– Use Nitrogen Requirements to Specify a Nitrogen Generator for Each Concourse

– Nitrogen Generator would Charge an Accumulator

– Accumulator Plumbed Throughout Concourse Using PVC pipe. Flexible Pipe Carries Nitrogen to Each Gate Loading Area Through Festoons Where Nitrogen is Dispersed to Aircraft Parked at Each Gate via a Hose Reel with a Metering Unit



Basic Architecture• Fuel Scrubbing

– Large Airport would Have Nitrogen Generator and Fuel Scrubber at Fuel Farm

– Fuel would be Scrubbed Before it was Pumped into the Airports Main Hydrant System

– Small Airports would use Portable Fuel Scrubber Units (with Nitrogen Generators) in Tow with Existing Fuel Trucks

– Fuel Would be Pumped from Truck to Scrubber, then from Scrubber to Aircraft



Non-Recurring Costs• Each Architecture Spawned a List of Materials

and Work Which was then Bid by Airport Contractors/Engineers

• Considered the Cost of Architecture and Engineering, Plumbing/Electrical/Mechanical Installation and Nitrogen Generation System Installation



Airport Non-Recurring Costs• Large Airport (ATL)

– Engineering / Architecture - $250,000

– Facility Modification - $5,796,679

– Commuter Concourse Mods - $2,065,432

– Fuel Farm Modification - $165,575

– System Installation - $1,025,000



Small Airport Non-Recurring Costs• Small Airport (ACY)

– Engineering / Architecture - $25,000

– Facility Modification - $90,859

– Fuel Truck Modification - $155,000

– System Installation - $76,683



Recurring Costs• Each Nitrogen Generation System Sized has a

Cost / Unit Volume Associated with the Lease

• Used Estimated Operation Costs Based on Operator/Vendor Input

• Also Consider the Cost of System Maintenance



Large Airport Recurring CostsTotal Washing Scrubbing Washing Scrubbing Washing

Year Departures N2 Volume N2 Volume N2 Cost N2 Cost Labor2003 419,202 301,537,113 139,477,170 $301,537 $334,745 $934,8202004 430,811 309,887,608 143,339,725 $309,888 $344,015 $960,7092005 442,420 318,238,104 147,202,279 $318,238 $353,285 $986,5972006 454,030 326,589,318 151,065,166 $326,589 $362,556 $1,012,4872007 465,639 334,939,813 154,927,720 $334,940 $371,827 $1,038,3752008 477,248 343,290,309 158,790,274 $343,290 $381,097 $1,064,2632009 488,858 351,641,523 162,653,161 $351,642 $390,368 $1,090,1532010 500,466 359,991,299 166,515,383 $359,991 $399,637 $1,116,0392011 512,076 368,342,514 170,378,270 $368,343 $408,908 $1,141,9292012 523,685 376,693,009 174,240,824 $376,693 $418,178 $1,167,818

Total = 4,714,435 3,391,150,612 1,568,589,972 $3,391,151 $3,764,616 $10,513,190

– Washing Nitrogen - $.10 / 100 ft3

– Scrubbing Nitrogen - $.24 / 100 ft3 – Washing Labor - $2.23 / Departure



Small Airport Recurring CostsTotal Washing Scrubbing Washing Scrubbing Washing

Year Departures N2 Volume N2 Volume N2 Cost N2 Cost Labor Cost2003 13,559 2,855,590 1,482,070 $13,421 $3,261 $271,1802004 13,809 2,908,241 1,509,396 $13,669 $3,321 $276,1802005 14,058 2,960,681 1,536,613 $13,915 $3,381 $281,1602006 14,309 3,013,543 1,564,049 $14,164 $3,441 $286,1802007 14,558 3,065,984 1,591,266 $14,410 $3,501 $291,1602008 14,808 3,118,635 1,618,592 $14,658 $3,561 $296,1602009 15,058 3,171,286 1,645,919 $14,905 $3,621 $301,1602010 15,308 3,223,937 1,673,245 $15,153 $3,681 $306,1602011 15,558 3,276,589 1,700,571 $15,400 $3,741 $311,1602012 15,808 3,329,240 1,727,898 $15,647 $3,801 $316,160

Totals = 146,833 30,923,726 16,049,620 $145,342 $35,309 $2,936,660

– Washing Nitrogen - $.47 / 100 ft3

– Scrubbing Nitrogen - $.22 / 100 ft3 – Washing Labor - $20.00 / Departure



Small Airport Ullage Washing HCWTs Only

HCWT Washing Washing WashingYear Departures N2 Volume N2 Cost Labor Cost

2003 1,546 862,036 $4,052 $30,9152004 1,574 877,930 $4,126 $31,4852005 1,603 893,761 $4,201 $32,0522006 1,631 909,718 $4,276 $32,6252007 1,660 925,549 $4,350 $33,1922008 1,688 941,443 $4,425 $33,7622009 1,717 957,337 $4,499 $34,3322010 1,745 973,232 $4,574 $34,9022011 1,774 989,126 $4,649 $35,4722012 1,802 1,005,020 $4,724 $36,042

Totals = 16,739 9,335,152 $43,875 $334,779

Large Airport Ullage Washing HCWTs Only

HCWT Washing Washing WashingYear Departures N2 Volume N2 Cost Labor

2003 186,545 134,713,292 $134,713 $415,9952004 191,711 138,443,919 $138,444 $427,5152005 196,877 142,174,547 $142,175 $439,0352006 202,043 145,905,496 $145,905 $450,5572007 207,209 149,636,124 $149,636 $462,0772008 212,375 153,366,752 $153,367 $473,5972009 217,542 157,097,701 $157,098 $485,1182010 222,707 160,828,007 $160,828 $496,6372011 227,874 164,558,956 $164,559 $508,1592012 233,040 168,289,584 $168,290 $519,679

Total = 2,097,924 1,515,014,378 $1,515,014 $4,678,370

HCWT Recurring Costs



Industry Extrapolation• Non-Recurring Costs Simply Multiplied by the

Number of Respective Airports that Meet Study Requirements

• Recurring Costs Developed with the per Departure Values Developed from ATL and ACY Multiplied by Forecasted Industry Departure Data Modified to Meet Study



Industry Extrapolation Assumptions• ATA Publishes 418 Primary US Airports

– Assume 400 Operate Aircraft > 19 Seats

• FAA APO Forecast Data in Terms of “Commercial Air” and “Commuter and Air Taxi” Movements– Divide Movements by 2 to Get Departures

– Assume 20% AT and Comm are < 19 Seats

• DOT T3 Schedule Data for 1998 Review for Relevant Departure Percentages



Estimated Departure DataProjected Projected Estimated

Year Air Carrier AT & Comm. Departures2003 16378133 15444302 143667872004 16786911 15692037 146702702005 17204670 15935368 149764822006 17647592 16168052 152910172007 18099587 16396966 156085802008 18561022 16622531 159295232009 19027702 16884554 162676732010 19502961 17144882 166094332011 19957826 17386781 169336252012 20420250 17626671 17260793

Total = 157,914,185



Calculated Relevant PercentagesPercentage of Relevant Departures

Total Departures HCWT Washing OnlyLarge Small Large Small

Airports Airports Airports Airports

Applicable GBI Departures 67% 24% 38% 10%

Single Aisle 80% 62% 94% 89%Wide Body 6% 6% 6% 11%Commuter 14% 32% 0% 0%

Total = 100% 100% 100% 100%

Source: DOT Scheduled T3 Data Compiled for 1998



Industry Recurring Nitrogen Costs• Used Calculated Percentages to Split Departures

into Wide-Body, Single Aisle, and Commuter for Big Airports and Small Airports

• Multiplied these Numbers by the Appropriate Average Nitrogen Volume per Departure Calculated at ATL and ACY for Both Total Departures and HCWT Departures Only

• Nitrogen Volumes were then Multiplied by the Appropriate Volume Cost from ATL and ACY



Industry Recurring Nitrogen Cost Totals

Summary of Totals Departure Category Nitrogen Volume (cubic feet)

Wide Single Com- Total N2 Total N2Case Body Aisle muter Wide-Body Single Aisle Commuter Volume Cost**

Large Airport Washing All 6,348,150 84,642,003 14,812,351 12,595,999,668 51,133,080,399 3,375,290,312 67,210,172,883 $67,210,173Small Airport Washing All 2,273,964 23,497,631 12,127,809 4,511,999,881 8,403,222,680 817,341,585 13,770,463,550 $64,721,179

Large Airport Washing HCWT 3,600,443 56,406,947 0 7,143,999,812 34,076,000,595 0 41,280,007,797 $41,280,008Small Airport Washing HCWT 1,737,056 14,054,362 0 3,446,666,576 5,026,121,092 0 8,488,579,086 $39,896,322

Large Airport Scrubbing 6,348,150 84,642,003 14,812,351 6,357,672,446 23,329,875,272 941,724,809 30,629,272,527 $73,510,254Small Airport Scrubbing 2,273,964 23,497,631 12,127,809 2,277,375,205 5,031,782,631 104,077,222 7,413,235,058 $16,309,117

Based on Total Forcasted US Depatures for 2003-2012: 157,914,185



Labor CostsLarge Airport Ullage Washing Labor

Total US All Applicable All Applicable Only HCWT Only HCWTYear Departures Departures Labor Cost Departures Labor Cost2003 14,366,787 10,200,419 $22,746,934 5,459,379 $12,174,4162004 14,670,270 10,415,892 $23,227,439 5,574,703 $12,431,5872005 14,976,482 10,633,302 $23,712,264 5,691,063 $12,691,0712006 15,291,017 10,856,622 $24,210,267 5,810,586 $12,957,6082007 15,608,580 11,082,092 $24,713,065 5,931,260 $13,226,7112008 15,929,523 11,309,962 $25,221,214 6,053,219 $13,498,6782009 16,267,673 11,550,048 $25,756,606 6,181,716 $13,785,2262010 16,609,433 11,792,698 $26,297,716 6,311,585 $14,074,8342011 16,933,625 12,022,874 $26,811,009 6,434,778 $14,349,5542012 17,260,793 12,255,163 $27,329,014 6,559,101 $14,626,796

Totals = 157,914,185 112,119,071 $250,025,528 60,007,390 $133,816,480* Uses $2.23 labor cost per departure

Small Airport Ullage Washing

Total US Applicable Labor Only HCWT Only HCWTYear Departures Departures Cost Departures Labor Cost2003 14,366,787 4,166,368 $41,663,683 1,436,679 $14,366,7872004 14,670,270 4,254,378 $42,543,784 1,467,027 $14,670,2702005 14,976,482 4,343,180 $43,431,798 1,497,648 $14,976,4822006 15,291,017 4,434,395 $44,343,949 1,529,102 $15,291,0172007 15,608,580 4,526,488 $45,264,882 1,560,858 $15,608,5802008 15,929,523 4,619,562 $46,195,618 1,592,952 $15,929,5232009 16,267,673 4,717,625 $47,176,251 1,626,767 $16,267,6732010 16,609,433 4,816,736 $48,167,357 1,660,943 $16,609,4332011 16,933,625 4,910,751 $49,107,514 1,693,363 $16,933,6252012 17,260,793 5,005,630 $50,056,301 1,726,079 $17,260,793

Totals = 157,914,185 45,795,114 $457,951,135 15,791,418 $157,914,185* Uses $10 labor cost per departure



Industry Nonrecurring Costs• Assume 50 Airports Large, 350 Small

• Multiply ATL Nonrecurring Costs by 50 and ACY Nonrecurring Costs by 350



Industry Cost SummaryWashing

Full GBI HCWTs OnlyNon-Recurring Costs

Large AP Concourse Modification $341,433,925 $341,433,925Large AP Commuter Modification $103,271,575 N/ALarge AP Fuel Farm Modification $20,428,750 N/ASmall AP Concourse Modification $53,599,438 $53,599,438Small AP Fuel Truck Modification $68,040,350 N/A

Sub-Total $586,774,038 $395,033,363

Recurring CostsLarge AP Washing Nitrogen $67,210,173 $41,280,008Large AP Scrubbing Nitrogen $73,510,254 N/ALarge AP Washing Labor $250,025,528 $133,816,480Large AP Related Maintenance $32,850,000 $16,425,000Small AP Washing Nitrogen $64,721,179 $39,896,322Small AP Scrubbing Nitrogen $16,309,117 N/ASmall AP Washing Labor $457,951,135 $157,914,185Small AP Related Maintenance $9,198,000 $4,599,000

Sub-Total $971,775,387 $393,930,994

Totals = $1,558,549,424 $788,964,357



Conclusions and Recommendations• GBI Offers a Significant Cost Advantage over

Traditional Fuel Tank Inerting Because of the Minimal Impact on Operational Costs– 1.6 Billion for Complete GBI, All Departures (Approximately

40% of ARAC Estimated Cost)

– 800 Million for HCWT Ullage Washing Only

• More Information is needed on Fuel Scrubbing and Small Airport Operations to Reduce the Uncertainty of the Cost Numbers

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